The World Today

After a decade in which oil was an unwelcome item on the climate change agenda, it has now reappeared on the international economic and geopolitical stage. But the oil issue is not what it used to be. There are no oil embargoes; there is not the kind of confrontation between exporters and importers that reached a climax in 1973. Supplies are not disrupted in the way they were following the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the start of the Iran-Iraq war, which took the cost of oil to around $80 at today’s prices. The International Energy Forum, just concluded in Amsterdam, was short on specifics but long in goodwill and heavy with ministerial participation. So, what are today’s oil problems?

What is the definition of a failing state? If it is a lack of clear central control, increasing violence, an inability to unite competing and opposing factions, and a drastic loss of trust between rulers and the ruled, then Saudi Arabia would surely qualify.

Have American actions in Iraq strengthened or weakened US power? And is Europe squaring up as a counterweight in a multi-polar world?

Barely a year after its inception the Democratic Republic of Congo’s transitional government could be close to disintegration. In the biggest threat yet to the country’s fledgling peace, recent weeks have seen an apparent coup attempt in the capital Kinshasa, following a week-long occupation of the eastern town of Bukavu by renegade forces. Stabilising the situation will not only require coordination among fractious elements in Kinshasa, but also the cooperation of key regional players, not least neighbouring Rwanda.

A right-wing nationalist candidate produced a good showing in Serbia’s presidential election. But does it matter? The amount of support for such views is fairly consistent and is, if anything, a symptom of failed attempts to deal with underlying problems.

It’s one of the paradoxes of modern life that gluts of products like coffee don’t always produce lower prices in coffee shops. Even more important, when the cappuccino machines are steaming at high pressure, farmers seem to see little reward for growing demand and production. For forty years the UN Conference on Trade and Development has grappled with such issues. It’s just had another try.