The World Today

In the first few days after the tsunami decimated the west coast of the Indonesian province of Aceh, hopes were high on all sides that out of this disaster could come a resolution to the decades-long separatist conflict that has ravaged the province. Indonesia’s newly elected President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, announced ‘a historic moment to unite and rebuild Aceh together’. Already, however, such hopes are fading as political issues crowd in. What went wrong?

Television images of devastation and human agony, unforgettable scenes of personal grief and despair – as the tsunami waves separated parents from children, wives from husbands – testified to the enormity of the disaster. But the waves not only hit Thailand’s tourist industry and economy, they may also have turned the tide in the political campaigns that had just been launched for elections on February 6.

As foreign policy experts continue to wring their hands over the dark disasters that might befall America as a result of the policies of President George Bush, one bright ray of hope shines oddly through.

This is the year of democracy in the Middle East, elections feature in Palestine, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Yet ‘election’ is just a buzz word. Afraid of unleashing true participatory politics, dictators rush to western models to find the magic phrase, but then legitimise it with Islamic codes. They conjure up potions formulated to suit the ruler without threatening the status quo. For Saudi Arabia the word ‘partial’ provides the recipe.

Lucky Lithuanians: they were the first of the European Union’s twenty-five member states to ratify the treaty for the new constitution, and by parliamentary process, not a referendum. Ten other members will have referendums, starting this month with Spain. Spain first. Britain last?

The future of Kosovo is likely to be decided this year. Washington sees the area as a key factor in its strategic plans for oil and Middle East security. So independence is suddenly back on the agenda.