The World Today: October 2008: October 2008

Policymakers’ priorities are changing dramatically as autumn and winter approach. Gone are the worries over soaring oil prices and inflation risks, in comes the stark threat of being engulfed in a world recession and the next stage of the global financial meltdown. Those who singled out Britain as being at greatest risk may quickly be proved wrong but, unfortunately, this is not good news.

Dilemmas and dangers abound for the west as it tries to come to terms with the ‘new’ Russia. There is a mood of defiance and injury, which can only be answered with firmness and prudence.

Russia’s military action in Georgia was driven by Moscow’s domestic agenda. Foreign policy has become a tool of collective control back home. While the ‘ruling tandem’ has gained popularity, the new consensus does not provide for modernisation. Will the predatory state reform or collapse?

Europe needs oil and gas from the South Caucasus and the Caspian. So while the conflict between Georgia and Russia might appear to be mainly about territory, the biggest practical effects are being felt in energy supply. None of the solutions is especially appetising.

NATO is a divided alliance, the Georgia crisis has reinforced splits which were developing over Afghanistan. So can an à la carte alliance work?

With President Thabo Mbeki forced out of office, South Africa is facing a crisis that goes to the heart of its democracy. What is at stake is the question of whether the judiciary is above political interference.