The World Today

Iran’s hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Pasdaran, are sheltering substantial parts of the country’s nuclear project and closely control its missile programme. The election turmoil in June demonstrated the Guards’ unprecedented influence in the political arena. Now western diplomats and experts as well as politicians in Iran are observing the continuing rise of the Guards with growing concern. But the power of the Pasdaran might soon face its limits.

In a few months, 189 members of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons meet in New York for their five-yearly review conference. The last one was a disaster, but after a decade of practically no meaningful multilateral negotiations on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, this session offers an opportunity to reopen doors and return to the original bargain that made the Treaty possible: ridding the world of nuclear weapons altogether. United States President Barack Obama is the man campaigning ultimately to achieve that; this could be his moment.

Iran’s recent agreement to allow inspections of its secret uranium enrichment facility is one of the first positive signs in recent years in the west’s effort to curtail Iran’s nuclear programme. How significant a step it is will only be clear months or perhaps years from now. But it does suggest that the United States’ new engagement approach has the potential to bear some fruit. Although Iranian consent may be just another play for time, buying time also can be in the west’s interest if it delays the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

A rare alignment of forces has created what may be the best opportunity yet for a reunification of Cyprus and a solution to the conflict. But the negotiations that started in September last year are progressing slowly. To some, that is simply because breaking a thirty-five year old deadlock cannot be easy. To others, it means this attempt, like so many previous ones, is bound to fail.

The end of the Cold War, symbolised by the fall of the Berlin Wall twenty years ago, appeared to be the greatest victory ever for civil resistance. But this has a complex interrelationship with other dimensions of power and success is far from guaranteed. Choosing the right moment can certainly help.

Twenty years ago there was huge hope across Eastern Europe as repressive governing systems fell. But the brief flowering of people’s power has given way to dysfunctional democracy.