The World Today

Demand for oil has fallen dramatically in the worst recession since the 1930s, yet oil prices doubled in the year to January. What is behind these apparently contradicting moves and where are prices heading now?

In January, there was a rare event in Africa. Military rulers agreed voluntarily to hand over power to civilians, under pressure from donors but not under force of arms. The full transfer of power in the West African nation of Guinea has to wait until elections, set for June, although a transitional government of civilians and the military is already being formed. If things go well, Guinea could be governed by a democratic administration for the first time in its history. But there might be a spoiler: Chinese interests have sealed huge mineral deals.

Almost exactly thirty years ago, on March 4 1980, Robert Gabriel Mugabe was elected Prime Minister of Zimbabwe. As Bob Marley performed before assembled international dignitaries, Mugabe took up office on April 18, the day of formal independence from Britain. Hopes were running high, and he was the man of the moment. But today Zimbabwe is virtually a failed state, mired in political and economic crisis. A year into a unity government which has pressed the pause button on bitter divisions, the country’s future is uncertain.

There is relief that human cases of Swine Flu have so far turned out to be less lethal than expected for many people. Understanding of the need to be prepared is beginning to replace annoyance over expensive unused vaccine stockpiles. But pandemic alerts might be avoided altogether with a new approach aiming to deal with diseases before they spread from animals.

Turkey was once a forgotten country: on the periphery of Europe, fixated with joining the European Union, a reliable NATO ally during the Cold War, and unfriendly to Iran and the Arab countries. No longer. Warmer relations with the Middle East and cooler ones with the west are now the norm, not the exception. Unsurprisingly the country’s foreign policy is at the centre of debates raging on the future trajectory of this geo-strategic nation. So, in which direction is it heading?

Bombs continue to plague Baghdad, there are cynical moves in a political game, and anti-Shi’a attacks during the mourning season of Muharram and Safar seem unchecked in the shrine cities of Najaf and Karbala. The path of Iraqi politics towards ‘normalisation’ remains fraught and fragile. Delayed elections and a new government will not mark the end of the Iraq debacle. Democratisation and normalisation are still to come.