Why the European Union may soak up the populist-right wave

Voters in June’s EU Parliament elections are more likely to cast their ballots in judgement of their national governments than drag the bloc to the right, argues Nathalie Tocci.

The World Today

Published 1 December 2023

Updated 20 December 2023 — 3 minute READ

Image — Geert Wilders, leader of the hard-right Party for Freedom, gives a speech after his success in the Netherlands general election in November. Photo: Carl Court / Getty Images.

Nathalie Tocci

Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali

Since 2019, when Europeans last went to the polls and heads of government appointed a new cohort of European Union leaders, the bloc has borne the brunt of a ‘polycrisis’: a pandemic, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and now, on its eastern flank, the Israel−Hamas conflict.

Alongside these external shocks has come a home-grown political disruption – the right-wing populists who have come to power in Europe. Their impact on June’s European Parliament elections and whether the EU will lurch to the right as a result has led to some hand-wringing, yet the future remains fluid.

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