Yair Golan is an Israeli politician who leads the Democrats, a left-of-centre coalition formed last year. He was a major general and deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces.
It is 17 months since the Hamas attack on October 7. In your assessment, has Israel achieved its objectives vis-à-vis Gaza and Hamas? What could it have done differently?
Almost everything could have been done differently. Militarily, the war has gone on for too long. The fighting in Gaza could have been more effective and quicker. The land phase of the war in the north started too late. But with all that, Israel has made great achievements concerning the geopolitical spectrum of the Middle East.
From 2003, when America changed the regional equilibrium by removing Iraq as a threat, Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq were on the rise, creating a Shia crescent – until September 2024, when we started the land operation [against Hezbollah] in Lebanon. Since then, we have destroyed Iran’s air defences, Hamas’s military wing and important facilities in Yemen – all in all, a major blow to the Iranian project.
The problem with Israel’s policy is the politics. Our government has no intention of turning its formidable military achievements into a better reality for Israel. Because for the extreme right of the Israeli government, its vision of annexing millions of Palestinians to create new unlawful settlements inside the Gaza Strip is much more important than building a regional and international alliance against the Iranian threat. This is a terrible shame.
Had I been prime minister, I would have advanced a political initiative after the fourth or fifth month of the war. First, to free all the hostages as soon as possible, not only for them and their families, but for Israeli society to be able to live with each other, for our cohesiveness, our solidarity. And to do so without giving Hamas a long-lasting ceasefire.
But we need to start thinking about an alternative to the Hamas regime in Gaza. It’s not enough to kill terrorists. You have to provide young guys with an alternative to joining Hamas, give them a goal in life. So, the fact that Israel, after more than 16 months of war, has created no alternative to Hamas, this is a strategic mistake.
We could work effectively with the United Arab Emirates, with Saudi Arabia, with Jordan, with Egypt, Morocco, with other moderate Muslim countries, to start a new initiative in Gaza, an alternative to Hamas, creating enclaves of stability and security where the civilian recovery process will start, and we will be able to provide jobs for young Gazans. If successful, we can expand these enclaves to cover all of Gaza.
The Israeli government’s attempts to convince the Israeli public and the rest of the world there is nothing to be done in Gaza are stupid.
Yair Golan shakes hands with protesters at a rally in Tel Aviv in September 2024. Thousands gathered to call on the government to pursue an immediate hostage deal. Photo: Sharon Eilon/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images.
What do you make of Trump’s proposal to take control of Gaza, remove its people and develop it?
Trump’s plan is a vague idea that was thrown into the air with no way to implement it. But let’s assume we convince half-a-million Gazans to emigrate and there are countries that would be willing to take them, does the problem of 1.5 million Palestinians in 365 square kilometres of Gaza become easy to solve? Not at all.
So, it’s not a true plan. We need to do something practical. Unless we bring into Gaza an improved Palestinian Authority with the moderate Muslim Sunni countries, we won’t build a civil alternative to Hamas. It is not enough to fight them.
The ceasefire process between Israel and Hamas is fragile. Will it be derailed?
It all depends on the political willingness of Benjamin Netanyahu. He doesn’t want to stop the war, he wants to keep Israeli society in a state of constant emergency to avoid his judicial and political problems. He wants to keep the far right with him, and there is no possibility of freeing all the hostages and reaching a stable ceasefire with the extreme right, because it wants only one thing: to resettle the Gaza Strip.
To do that, you need to maintain warfare in Gaza.
How do you regard the Israeli Defence Forces’ recent displacement of 40,000 Palestinians from three refugee camps in the West Bank?
This is the same issue. I fought Hamas and Islamic Jihad in northern Samaria where this military operation is ongoing. I know the terrain, the people, the problems. There is no need to evacuate thousands of people, this is not the first time we fight terrorists in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]. So, when we see something as exceptional as this, we should say it’s not because of military need, it’s because of political considerations.
You’ve said your long-term ambition is a two-state solution – is that still realistic and, if so, how do you convince Israelis?
We need to understand that Israeli society is still in trauma from October 7. To make the galactic leap from the current situation to a two-state solution is impossible. It’s not enough to return to old formulas, we need to adjust our plans, our ideas, our perceptions. My concept is about civil separation and security responsibility. Civil separation to lessen the friction between two hostile populations, provide fewer opportunities for terrorists and to create the environment for a reconciliation process. At the same time, as long as we cannot trust the Palestinians to stand by any agreement, we need to retain responsibility for our security, including the ability to conduct land operations. We need to think differently after October 7.
Is the idea of an Israel–Palestine confederation worth considering?
It is a very poor idea. A confederation is based on a strong common interest – I don’t see that on the Palestinian side or the Israeli side. Civil separation according to the lines of the two-state solution, this is practical, we can start tomorrow morning. Eighty per cent of settlers could live in the same houses in the same place without much evacuation, but there are problematic areas, mainly along the ridge of the mountains of Judea and Samaria, where we will need to find a solution. Israel must have borders, and not just physical borders but mental borders. People need to understand where Israel is and where it is not. We should not take the risk of annexing millions of Palestinians into Israel.
A right-wing protester holds a placard showing Yair Golan during a demonstration in Tel Aviv. Golan criticizes Netanyahu’s government for trying to appease the far right which he argues has delayed the return of hostages. Photo: Eyal Warshavsky/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images.
Iran is thought to be close to developing nuclear weaponry. How should Israel deal with that threat? With military strikes, as Netanyahu seems to want, or via diplomacy?
It is much better for Israel to approach Iran’s nuclear threat in an alliance, with strong international backing from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and others. But we won’t be able to make a strong alliance like that without moving forward positively on the Palestinian issue, according to the lines of the two-state solution. There is no alternative. Our partners in the region must understand that the Palestinian issue, with all its complexity, will take a few years to solve.
But we can assure our possible allies that yes, we are still committed to the two-state solution and, yes, we do something practical in that direction, and therefore now is the time to forge an alliance against Iran. This is the time to convince the European Union, the United States, Japan and any other moderate nation that we need to fight extremist Islam together. By forging such an alliance, we will be much more effective in freezing the nuclear programme of Iran. A nuclear bomb in the hands of Iran could destabilize the Middle East and the world.
Has Israel’s strategic position been improved by the election of Trump?
It is really hard to understand where the United States is going. It probably won’t be according to the traditional lines of American policy. So, Israel should strengthen its alliance with the US and separately work very closely with the EU, Britain and other moderate countries that could contribute positively to fight radical Islam, which, with the exception of Russia, is the most destabilizing element in the world. Now is the time for new international cooperation and perhaps the consequence of Trump’s re-election will be more European countries assuming more security responsibility concerning Europe and the rest of the world.