2019: Buhari’s last hurrah
President Buhari and his party will attempt to assemble the same geopolitical coalition that propelled them to victory in 2015. Then, the APC relied on a powerful electoral alliance between the country’s southwest economic heartland, the vote-rich northwest – President Buhari’s home region – and parts of Nigeria’s northeast and north-central regions. Buhari’s key campaign promises – to rein in corruption, defeat Boko Haram and revive the ailing economy – resonated with a plurality of Nigerians in the wake of 16 years of increasingly corrupt and ineffective PDP leadership.
Since that time, public opinion polls show that President Buhari’s popularity has waned considerably.4 For the first half of his term, he was suffering an undisclosed but clearly serious illness. Although he appears to have since recovered, he remains an aloof and disengaged leader, ‘walled off’ from his own government and party, and from Nigerians themselves. Halfway through his first term, Buhari and his government had fulfilled just seven out of his 222 campaign promises, and had made no progress at all on a further 96, according to analysis by the Buharimeter project.5
President Buhari’s critics claim he has done little to tackle unemployment, boost the country’s anaemic power supply, or address the worsening violence between pastoralists and farmers in the volatile Middle Belt. Even the results of his signature policy issue – fighting corruption – are mixed. During his tenure, Nigeria’s anti-corruption agencies have assiduously investigated former government officials, while at the same time sparing sitting officials and ruling party ‘bigwigs’ from close scrutiny.
Unlike his predecessors, Buhari disdains partisan political issues and rarely intervenes in intra-party disputes. As a result, the APC lacks cohesion, as well as any deep affinity with the president himself. Almost five years since its establishment, the party is still an uneasy alliance of autonomous elite networks bound together by little more than incumbency and a collective desire to stay in power through 2023 and beyond.
Since taking power nationally and in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states, the APC’s political strength has grown in some ways and ebbed in others. It has wrested three state governorships (Kogi, Ondo and, most recently, Ekiti) from the PDP during off-cycle elections. Similarly, the APC is exploiting missteps by the PDP governors of Cross River and Akwa Ibom states to make inroads there. At the same time, however, intra-party squabbles and divisive leadership have weakened its position in hitherto APC strongholds like Kano and President Buhari’s home state of Katsina. These state-level disputes factored in the decision of some senators and representatives to defect from the party in late July 2018. The APC will also struggle to maintain its grip on swing states that it won in 2015, especially Kogi and Benue.
Over the coming months, a few key factors will determine whether the APC will repeat its sweeping 2015 victory or risk defeat. The first is the degree to which the party either remains united behind Buhari’s candidacy or sees existing factional divisions widen. Recent party congresses – forums where the APC’s local, state and national leaders were chosen by party members – have deepened intra-party rifts. Regardless, the congresses will have determined which APC power brokers will enjoy an advantage when they meet to select party candidates later this year.
Recent developments suggest that tensions and divisions within the party continue to escalate. Notably, in early July 2018 a group of prominent APC members held a press conference to announce the establishment of the Reformed APC (R-APC). This breakaway faction from the party core, led by Alhaji Buba Galadima, a former ally of Buhari, presaged the defection later the same month of dozens of federal legislators from the APC to the PDP.6 Additional ‘cross-carpeting’ may follow. As at previous elections, political parties and party membership will remain fluid at least until the primaries.
The second factor is the President Buhari’s own record in the last six months of his current term, and his party’s performance in off-cycle governorship elections in the states of Ekiti and Osun – in July and September 2018, respectively. Buhari’s popularity may yet rebound if he is able to meet some of his manifesto promises – or it may slide further if he seeks re-election having failed to make tangible progress in addressing the country’s socio-economic and security challenges. In either case, the APC’s win in the July 2018 state governorship election, as announced by INEC, together with its performance in the forthcoming election in Osun state – both of which are located in the politically fickle southwest – will serve as a bellwether for the party’s fortunes in the 2019 national polls.
2019 aspirants: many old hands – and some new faces
Although, as yet, only a handful of people have formally declared their intention to run for president in 2019, with a little over six months to go there is intense speculation over who will eventually contest the election, and for which party. Among the most widely discussed figures are:
President Muhammadu Buhari: A combination of astute PR and the ability to tap into popular anger at the conspicuous corruption associated with the administration of Goodluck Jonathan helped Buhari – a serial presidential aspirant – to victory in 2015 at his fourth attempt. His team worked hard to shed his stern authoritarian image from his time in the army and his short-lived military presidency in the 1980s. Buhari promised Nigerians a return to high economic growth, improved security and an end to corruption.
Atiku Abubakar: Nigeria’s vice-president in 1999–2007, Abubakar has plenty of experience in campaigning for the presidency using several platforms. On this, his fourth attempt, he is hoping to win the nomination of the PDP, the party he served in government. Despite the fact that he is 71 years old, the early stage of his campaign is actively targeting Nigeria’s youth.
Datti Baba-Ahmed: Kaduna native Datti Baba-Ahmed is a former senator who also served in the House of Representatives. His campaign focuses on institution building, job creation and fighting corruption. Like Abubakar, he is seeking to appeal to younger voters, and at 48 years of age he is young by Nigerian political standards. The founder and pro-chancellor of Baze University in Abuja, Baba-Ahmed also hopes to win the PDP nomination, claiming that a second term for Buhari ‘will destroy Nigeria and unsettle the rest of Africa’.
Ibrahim Dankwambo: The governor of Gombe State and former federal accountant-general is also vying to represent the PDP. His background in finance is appealing to fans of technocrats. Although he does not have the political profile of some of the aforementioned, he has the backing of several political subgroups which highlight his relative youth – he is 55 years old – and firmly believe he is the best qualified candidate.
Donald Duke: The former governor of Cross River State is one of a younger breed of politicians to emerge during the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency (1999–2007). A polished politician, Duke disappeared from the political scene after 2011 but has occasionally hinted at making a comeback.
Fela Durotoye: A motivational speaker with a large following, Durotoye is running as the candidate of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), a new political party. He describes himself as a ‘technotician’ – a hybrid of technocrat and politician – and says that his focus is not just on politics but on delivering good governance.
Ayodele Fayose: The outgoing PDP governor of Ekiti State, Fayose is a larger-than-life and divisive figure known for his attention-grabbing style of governance and his acid put-downs of opponents. He has on more than one occasion claimed that God revealed to him that he will be president.
Jaye Gaskia: Social activist Jaye Gaskia says that Nigeria has been crippled by ‘decades of incompetent, selfish, greedy and light-fingered leadership’, and he believes he is the man to address it. He leads ‘Take Back Nigeria’ – a movement demanding that politicians be held to account by the electorate. Gaskia says the 2019 elections will be about citizens taking back the country from the elites. Like many non-career politicians, he has not yet announced which party he intends to run for.
Rabiu Kwankwaso: A former governor of Kano State and incumbent senator, Kwankwaso outperformed Atiku Abubakar in the APC’s 2014 primaries, coming second to Buhari. He has since then been quietly strengthening his profile, but growing animosity between him and his successor as state governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, divided the APC in Kano and resulted in him rejoining the PDP in July 2018.
Sule Lamido: A former minister of foreign affairs and two-term governor of Jigawa State, Lamido does not have a national profile but is nevertheless a serious contender for the PDP nomination. He surprised many observers by not defecting to the APC, instead remaining in the PDP to rebuild the fractured party after its 2015 defeat. The reopening of a money-laundering case against him and his sons may hamper his ambitions, however.
Ahmed Makarfi: The former governor of Kaduna State, former senator and erstwhile PDP chairman, Makarfi reportedly enjoys a political alliance with Rivers State governor and party financier Nyesom Wike. Makarfi hails from the same geopolitical region as Buhari, which could help the PDP make inroads into that area – latterly an APC stronghold – in 2019.
Kingsley Moghalu: A former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Moghalu is also a respected lawyer. His years at the UN have given him international exposure, while his role in overseeing change at the Central Bank has identified him as an economic reformer. Moghalu is campaigning as a competent technocrat with a vision to help Nigeria ‘Build, Innovate and Grow’.
Omoyele Sowore: An outspoken journalist and political newcomer, Sowore is the publisher of Sahara Reporters, a media platform that has become the bête noire of Nigeria’s political elite. He has thus far campaigned on improving Nigeria’s anaemic power supply, addressing insecurity and releasing the imprisoned Shia cleric Ibrahim Zakzaky. Sowore is attempting to use crowdfunding to raise $2 million in campaign funds.
4 NOI Polls (2018), ‘Monthly Buhari Job Approval’, http://www.noi-polls.com/root/index.php?pid=16&ptid=10&cat_id=6&parentid=6&timeline_id=131 (accessed 18 May 2018).
5 Centre for Democracy and Development (2017), Buharimeter Mid-Term Report, Abuja: Centre for Democracy and Development, http://www.buharimeter.ng/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Final-Buharimeter-2-years-Report-1.pdf (accessed 9 July 2018).
6 Malingha Doya, D., Wallace, P. and Ibukun, Y. (2018), ‘Nigerian President Suffers Senate Blow as He Prepares for Vote’, Bloomberg, 24 July 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-24/nigeria-s-ruling-apc-party-loses-senate-majority-on-defections (accessed 25 July 2018). Although the APC immediately claimed that it nonetheless retained a majority in the House of Representatives, the scale of the defections from the governing party indicated that this was no longer the case.