The Independent National Electoral Commission: ready for 2019?
Many of the troubles of previous elections can be traced to the conduct of INEC, a body that has seen many changes of leadership and is in a constant state of internal reform. It has shouldered the blame for many pre-election mishaps (such as the non-delivery of voting papers and equipment malfunctions), but with every election the Commission seems to get better at scrutinizing its staff and trying to improve its processes. The 2015 elections, conducted under the leadership of Attahiru Jega, are considered the most efficiently run and the most transparent of Nigeria’s recent elections. But obstacles are already apparent as regards preparation for 2019.
The presidency and the Senate are currently jockeying over the sequence of elections, which is proving to be very disruptive to the process. Traditionally, the presidential election and national assembly elections are first to be conducted, followed a fortnight later by the state governorship and state assembly polls. The Senate has supported a legislative proposal to alter the order and hold elections over three days, with national assembly elections first, followed by state governorship and state house of assembly elections, and with presidential elections coming last in the sequence. INEC released its election timetable (providing for a two-stage election process) in January 2018, but the bill to enable the reordering of the electoral sequence was, controversially, passed by the National Assembly a month later. President Buhari refused to sign the bill into law, warning that it might undermine INEC’s ability to organize, undertake and supervise elections. Critics of the bill condemn the actions of its supporters as unconstitutional, and are concerned that, with a sufficient majority in the House of Representatives, the president’s veto can be overturned.
The argument for reordering is that the outcome of the presidential poll influences the way in which people vote in the elections that follow. By holding the presidential elections last, the intention is that electorate will exercise greater consideration in electing their federal and state legislators, rather than voting for the party of an already declared winner. This dispute has drawn attention to the discord between the executive and legislative branches of government. If the National Assembly overturns the veto, this will embolden the legislature and set a trend for more confrontations with the presidency.
INEC has been carrying out continuous voter registration since 2016, but this has not been without difficulties, and some parts of the country have experienced the problem of citizens being unable to register because of inadequate staffing levels and a shortage of registration machines. INEC personnel, for their part, have complained about voters registering but then failing to collect their permanent voter cards. The increasing number of parties being registered also poses complications. There are currently 68, and the number is likely to rise even higher.
Another issue dogging Nigerian elections – and one that resurfaces with every election – is that of underage voters. An INEC official has claimed that underage voters have been registered in certain parts of the country after some members of those communities intimidated INEC staff. But despite such challenges, INEC claims that it will be ready for 2019 and its incumbent chairman, Mahmood Yakubu, insists he will not be intimidated by partisan pressure.
Security remains a serious problem in the northeast of the country, with Boko Haram and other militant groups still very active in the region. The 2015 polls were delayed to allow for a military offensive to secure the area. If the military is called into action again for 2019, this will further weaken the government’s often-repeated claim that the insurgency has been eliminated.
Security conditions during the pre- and post-election period will greatly impact INEC’s ability to conduct credible and well-executed polls. Since Buhari’s victory the government has claimed success in reducing the impact of insurgents in the northeast, but other security crises have intensified across the country: these could be exploited by unscrupulous politicians and their supporters to disrupt pre-election logistics or the voting process itself. In some states, the threat of intercommunal clashes – such as the farmer–herder conflicts that roil the country’s Middle Belt states – could suppress voter turnout, or even put poll workers at risk.