Introduction
In February 2019 Nigerians will vote for their next president, deciding who will lead Africa’s largest economy and most populous country into the next decade. They will also elect many state governors, and all federal and state legislators. The elections will pit the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) against the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and many smaller parties. In many ways, the process will serve as a referendum on President Muhammadu Buhari’s first term at the head of a civilian government.
The 2019 elections are shaping up to be of the ‘old school’, with APC incumbents likely to leverage their access to state coffers, their control over patronage mechanisms and their influence over security agents in their efforts to fend off opposition challengers. Such tactics recall those used by the PDP to hold on to power for 16 years (1999–2015), and reflect the strong similarities between Nigeria’s two main parties. Virtually indistinguishable in terms of their ideology, policies and conduct, both parties function as patronage-fuelled coalitions of fractious elite networks that share one objective: to achieve political power and the financial rewards that come with it.
Even so, there are signs that a generational shift in Nigeria’s political landscape is under way. Political debates among younger Nigerians are increasingly focused on politicians’ performance, government policies, and citizens’ own expectations and aspirations. Unwilling to be ‘carried along’ by self-serving politicians in exchange for hollow promises or token sums, a new generation of voters – one that may take many years to coalesce and to change political norms – is beginning to take shape.
Like the 2015 elections, next year’s polls will have a colossal impact on Nigeria’s economic future and stability prospects. The outcome will determine the extent to which its government makes progress in fighting terrorism, reining in corruption, resolving communal conflicts and addressing the country’s significant socio-economic challenges. The 2019 elections also represent an important milestone in Nigeria’s democratic development: will they be as credible as the 2011 and 2015 polls, or deeply flawed like those in 2003 and 2007?
This paper examines the pre-election playing field in Nigeria, assesses the prospects of the two main parties, reviews the prospective presidential candidates, assesses the readiness of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and examines how social media and new social movements could influence the elections.