Opposition: ready to roll?
Although still reeling from its 2015 election defeat, the PDP remains Nigeria’s largest and most formidable opposition party. At the time of publication, it controls 12 state governorships,7 as well as the office of deputy president of the Senate. In the National Assembly, moreover, the PDP now holds an apparent majority in both houses, and its legislators chair many key committees, including the Senate Downstream Petroleum Committee and the House Upstream Petroleum Committee. The party also enjoys the support of several ‘godfathers’ – former top officeholders with deep pockets and well-developed political networks.
The PDP appears to have emerged from a two-year long power struggle between rival internal factions: one led by the former governor of Kaduna State, Ahmed Makarfi, and the other by his former counterpart in Borno State, Ali Modu Sheriff. With the backing of Nyesom Wike, the governor of cash-flushed and vote-rich Rivers State, Makarfi’s faction won a messy legal battle in 2016 for control of PDP party structures. Wike, now one of the party’s most influential power brokers, installed his close ally Uche Secondus as national party chairman late last year.
Looking ahead, the PDP’s competitiveness will depend on two main factors: the political pedigree and popular appeal of the party’s presidential nominee, and its ability to unify against a well-financed incumbent who remains popular across much of the north. In an effort to blunt Buhari’s ‘home field’ advantage, it is likely that the PDP will nominate a candidate from Nigeria’s northwest – a political strategy known as ‘zoning’. Contenders from this region include Makarfi, former senator Datti Baba-Ahmed and former Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, who recently decamped from the APC. Despite hailing from the northeast, wealthy former vice-president Atiku Abubakar has also announced he will once again run for the presidency.
It remains to be seen, however, whether the PDP’s new leaders can reunite the opposition party and entice some sitting governors away from the ruling party. As with the APC, much will depend on how credibly and collegially the PDP conducts its party congresses and primaries. If it builds an inclusive coalition of dynamic candidates, it could recapture many legislative seats and some of the governorships that were lost in the 2015 APC landslide.
7 The APC challenger for the governorship of Ekiti State defeated the PDP candidate in the July 2018 election, but the PDP incumbent, Ayodele Fayose, will remain in office until the end of his term in October. The governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, announced his defection from the APC to the PDP on 25 July.