Outlook and implications
Nigeria has entered a volatile pre-election period in which politicians will be, as Nigerians would say, ‘heating up the polity’. Across the country, politicians and officials build up personal or party ‘war chests’ – some of them using public funds. They will use these resources to build up their political machines, mobilize youth, and distribute patronage to influential individuals and voting constituencies. After party congresses and primaries conclude, some jilted politicians will decamp to other parties in the hope of reviving their campaigns elsewhere. Just prior to the election, governing party officials may well look to ensure that sympathetic officials are posted to top security and INEC postings in must-win states. In these respects, the 2019 elections will very much follow the pattern of other recent national polls.
Although the prospect of renewed military involvement in politics should never be totally discounted, on the surface at least it appears that Nigeria’s democratic trajectory will continue without interruption. Now that the PDP monopoly has been broken, legitimate questions are being asked about the manner in which politics is conducted in Nigeria. Civil society organizations and youth-led pressure groups are mobilizing and using multiple platforms to question and hold government to account. Former political leaders are not just adding their voices to critiques of the governing party, but are creating and supporting new movements to offer an alternative to the two biggest parties. Civilian-led organizations are also shaping the debate on how to reform Nigeria’s often nepotistic and crony-ridden political culture, which has traditionally excluded much of society.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s international partners appear to be somewhat less engaged ahead of the 2019 elections than they were four years ago. It can, however, be expected that their focus will sharpen as Nigeria’s primary season heats up and the identities of the key presidential contenders become known. US policy towards Nigeria, in particular, has been weakened by a shift in emphasis away from democracy and governance towards counterterrorism and trade. To make up for the lack of interest in Washington, the UK, the EU and their Nigerian civil society partners will need to redouble their efforts to support – but also closely and objectively scrutinize – INEC’s performance in the run-up to and during the elections. Just like Nigerians’ all-important participation in the democratic process, international engagement will be critical to the success of Nigeria’s elections.