Conclusions
Attempts to resolve the conflict between the Israeli and Palestinian peoples have employed a variety of approaches over the past quarter of a century. These different approaches offer valuable lessons for those engaging in future attempts to end the conflict.
Perhaps the most important lesson is that leadership is crucial to the success of peace efforts. Leaders on both sides have to be committed to peace and prepared to make the concessions necessary to reach agreement. In order to bring negotiations to a successful conclusion, they need to secure their domestic base in terms of political allies and a majority of the public. But leaders who try to maintain support that is broader than the necessary ‘critical mass’ will never be able to make bold moves for peace.
The structure of any peace process is also important. One of the factors to be considered is whether it should be incremental or should seek to reach a deal in one go. An incremental process may look attractive, as it offers the opportunity to build confidence between the parties before moving on to the more difficult issues. However, such processes have been shown to be vulnerable to disruption by extremists, whose actions may well destroy confidence more effectively than supporters of peace are able to build it. Closing a deal in one go and putting it promptly to the public on both sides would inevitably create short-term turbulence, but would probably produce a better outcome than a protracted process. However, such a ‘big bang’ approach requires careful preparation beforehand, as well as firm orchestration during the event itself.
No future Israeli–Palestinian peace talks are likely to succeed without effective support from the international community, which can also mitigate the deterioration in relations which occurs during periods of stagnation consequent upon insufficiently committed leadership on either or both sides. The Arab states represent a particularly important group of third parties, as they can offer a comprehensive, regional peace agreement, including acceptance for Israel by the Arab world as a whole. However, Arab leaders need to promote their proposals more effectively than they have done to date.
Lastly, during periods of stagnation it is also of great importance to maintain and sustain the peace camps in both societies, and to foster some level of ongoing dialogue between them. This would keep the peace discourse alive in both Israeli and Palestinian societies. It could serve as a foundation to support and promote a peace process and subsequent peace agreements, if and when these take place and are agreed.
In this context, it is important for Israel’s leaders to recognize clearly that their country’s central conflict is with the Palestinians, not with the Arab states (or Iran).