Canadian attitudes towards China have undergone a dramatic shift – from ambivalence to distrust – since the two countries became locked in a diplomatic dispute in late 2018. This paper argues that these hardened sentiments are unlikely to dissipate and Canada–China relations seem to have entered a new, warier phase.
Conclusion
The ongoing dispute between Canada and China is proving an inflection point in their relations. Unlike previous disagreements, this one seems to have transformed Canadians’ long-standing ambivalence about China into a sharper distrust, and the COVID-19 pandemic appears only to have reinforced these sentiments. Appetite in Ottawa for major joint initiatives with China has all but evaporated. Lower-level cooperation will continue – along with bilateral trade – but there is little prospect of returning to the status quo ante in bilateral relations, even after the current dispute is resolved.
At the same time, Ottawa must tread carefully, because China has demonstrated its willingness to use harsh methods to pressure Canada, while ‘America First’ unilateralism has left many Canadians wondering if the US will come to Canada’s assistance at times of need. A multinational effort to define and uphold limits on Chinese behaviours would benefit Canada, provided that it exercises due caution to avoid triggering a broader confrontation. Canadians want neither to be the target of an emboldened China, nor to bring about an unnecessary new cold war.