Canadian attitudes towards China have undergone a dramatic shift – from ambivalence to distrust – since the two countries became locked in a diplomatic dispute in late 2018. This paper argues that these hardened sentiments are unlikely to dissipate and Canada–China relations seem to have entered a new, warier phase.
Introduction
China’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, including its apparent suppression of information about the initial outbreak in Wuhan, has produced a backlash against Beijing in several countries.1 For many Canadians, however, these developments have reinforced existing misgivings. Public opinion surveys indicate that attitudes towards China have undergone a dramatic shift – from ambivalence to distrust – since the two countries became locked in a diplomatic dispute in late 2018. This paper argues that these hardened sentiments are unlikely to dissipate even after the current dispute ends. Canada–China relations seem to have entered a new, warier phase.
Tensions emerged in December 2018 when Canadian police arrested Meng Wanzhou, the deputy chair and chief financial officer of Chinese telecommunications equipment manufacturer Huawei, following an extradition request from the US. In apparent retaliation, China quickly detained two Canadians on suspicion of endangering national security, and imposed costly restrictions on certain Canadian imports.
Canadians’ mounting distrust of China should not be mistaken for hostility. Large majorities express a preference for negotiating the dispute rather than retaliating and ratcheting up tensions, perhaps recognizing that Canada, alone, cannot ‘out-escalate’ China. The challenge for the Canadian government – as for many other countries – will be to resist China’s increasingly assertive behaviour while preventing tensions from escalating out of control and sustaining cooperation in areas of mutual interest, such as public health, climate change and the stability of the global economy. Ideally, Canada would reduce its exposure to Chinese pressure by coordinating with other countries.2 Although some coordination is taking place, it ultimately requires US leadership to be effective, but the Donald Trump administration has preferred to deal with China unilaterally, effectively leaving its traditional allies, including Canada, to fend for themselves. Until multinational coordination is achieved, Ottawa will need to handle relations with an emboldened China – and a less predictable US – with extreme care.
1 Erlanger, S. (2020), ‘Global Backlash Builds Against China Over Coronavirus’, New York Times, 3 May 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/
05/03/world/europe/backlash-china-coronavirus.html (accessed 19 May 2020).
2 Paris, R. (2020), ‘Disunited Democracies Cannot Face the Challenge of China’, Chatham House Expert Comment, 4 June 2020, https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/disunited-democracies-cannot-face-challenge-china (accessed 8 Jun. 2020).