Conclusion
There is a strong case for the UK to remain closely engaged with France and Germany on international security issues after Brexit. The Integrated Security, Defence and Foreign Policy Review should recognize the E3 as a key diplomatic element in the country’s relationship with its closest European allies and in the pursuit of shared international security objectives – and one that has the potential to grow and evolve in the future. At a minimum, sustaining the flexible and resource-lite E3 format as a go-to platform for policy discussion and crisis response offers obvious benefits for the UK as a mechanism to amplify its voice alongside key European partners and to participate in and influence European policy positions, as well as an informal plug-in into wider EU strategic discussions.
France and Germany are very likely to support continued E3 engagement, but the extent, form and timeframe of such engagement will be shaped by several factors, including the UK–EU relationship, the evolution of EU foreign and security policy, and the state of transatlantic relations. Use of the E3+EU format may frequently be the preferred option to a pure E3 for Berlin and Paris. This would avoid the negative symbolism of appearing to bypass the EU and help keep other EU members on board, while adding an extra layer to the UK’s European diplomacy and to intra-NATO relations. However, the E3+EU format will likely work best as a long-term sustained process that plays to the EU’s strengths, rather than on issues that require rapid response or on which there is little European consensus.
The E3 format should be maintained as a Flexi3 that is an adaptable diplomatic coordination platform able to address a new set of thematic, regional or multilateral challenges. Reaching out to other diplomatic partners on a case-by-case basis would be preferable to widening the E3 to other members. Furthermore, institutionalization offers less obvious benefits and may undermine the flexibility that has been the hallmark of the format to date. E3 cooperation is, however, likely to be heavily conditioned by the evolution of the wider European and transatlantic security context. Developing the E3 will require the UK to broker a consensus with France and Germany on the way ahead and to invest political will in the format.
There is an opportunity for the UK in 2020 to think about the role of the E3 in the context of the Integrated Security, Defence and Foreign Policy Review. Amid the broader debate about its place in the world after Brexit and proposals about the evolution of the European diplomatic and security architecture, the UK should develop a clear view for the E3 format’s future and advocate this with France and Germany.