|
|
|
|
|---|
|
China
|
67%
|
Q1, 2020
|
|
India
|
75%
|
Q1, 2020
|
|
Indonesia
|
59%
|
2019
|
|
Vietnam
|
43%
|
2020 (estimate)
|
Source: IEA (2020), Global Energy Review 2020: The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO₂ emissions, April 2020, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020/electricity#abstr…; IEA (2020), ‘Electricity generation by source, Indonesia 1990-2019’, Electricity Information 2020, https://www.iea.org/countries/indonesia; Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH (n.d.), Vietnam Power Development Plan for the Period 2011–2020, p. 5, http://gizenergy.org.vn/media/app/media/legal%20documents/GIZ_PDP%207%20rev_Mar%202016_Highlights_IS.pdf; for the IEA country page for Indonesia, see https://www.iea.org/countries/indonesia.
China, the world’s biggest consumer of coal, depended on coal-based electricity for around 67 per cent of its average total in the first quarter of 2020 (with its share of renewable energy increasing to 28 per cent in March 2020). This marks a declining trend in coal dependency since 2015, when around 70 per cent of average total electricity needs depended on coal, this figure fell to around 65 per cent in 2019. Critics warn that the approval of new coal power plants in China would risk the global long-term goals of the Paris Agreement.
India is the second largest global consumer of coal. It depended on coal for around 75 per cent of its average total electricity needs in the first quarter of 2020 (with renewable energy increasing to 21 per cent of total electricity in March 2020). Its ambition is to have non-fossil fuel-based energy sources accounting for 40 per cent of its cumulative electricity installed capacity. Its renewable energy capacity goal is 175 gigawatts (GW) by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030 (renewable energy except for large hydropower). Considerable extra effort will be needed to achieve this target. The current level of renewable energy capacity is around 93 GW (rising consistently from 15 GW in 2010) and total installed capacity in India was 377 GW, as of January 2021.
Likewise, in Southeast Asia, the share of coal-fired power generation increased from around 20 per cent in 2000 to around 40 per cent in 2018. It is expected to remain at this level over the next two decades, according to the IEA. Indonesia regards coal as its primary source of electricity, and coal accounted for half of installed capacity in 2018. Coal is expected to remain its primary source of energy although the government aims to increase the share of renewable energy from 14 per cent in 2018 to 23 per cent by 2025, and to 31 per cent by 2030. Vietnam expects an increase of installed capacity of coal-fired power plants from 42.7 per cent in 2020 to 49.3 per cent in 2025, according to its revised seventh national power development plan. Under the eighth development plan, the rise in coal-based energy in Vietnam is due to be overtaken by efforts to roll out more renewable sources and gas-fired power plants backed by liquefied natural gas-based fuel.
Under the IMF’s forecast, emerging and developing Asia is projected to achieve 8.6 per cent growth in 2021, while world growth is projected at 6 per cent.
The COVID-19 crisis has sharpened challenges such as coal dependency. The key policy issues are whether governments can develop and implement financial recovery programmes while also meeting their commitments under the Paris Agreement and the SDGs. Although Asia is suffering from a wide range of negative impacts caused by COVID-19, the IMF envisages a quick bounce-back scenario in Asia to high economic growth rates in 2021. Under the IMF’s forecast, emerging and developing Asia is projected to achieve 8.6 per cent growth in 2021, while world growth is projected at 6 per cent.
This suggests two things. Firstly, Asia’s emerging economies will maintain some level of economic capability that could potentially help to meet the sustainable development agenda. Secondly, it will be imperative that the region meets the challenge of combating rising GHG emissions and the other adverse effects caused by rapid economic growth to ensure more inclusive and sustainable growth. The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) progress report revealed that efforts in the region have been insufficient, particularly in terms of curbing growing GHG emissions. The key question is how the region can revitalize and implement approaches to achieve a low-carbon economy through continuous economic growth (‘green growth’) and sustainable development, particularly in the context of COVID-19.
This research paper examines the forms of regional cooperation that could foster green growth and sustainable development in Asia. It analyses some of the current obstacles faced by Asian countries and assesses existing regional efforts undertaken through various forms of partnership. The paper focuses on the following economies: China, India, the ASEAN5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam), and other large economies (Japan, South Korea). Given the scale of these economies, their levels of emissions and influence in the region, they should play an important role in changing the direction of regional development.
