|
|
|
|
---|
Eleron-3
|
UAV – ISR
|
30 km
|
Eniks
|
Orlan-10
|
UAV – ISR
|
120 km
|
Special Technology Center (STC)
|
Forpost
|
UAV – ISR
|
250 km
|
Uzga
|
Molniya
|
UAV swarm concept
|
To be determined
|
Kronstadt
|
Orion
|
UAV – ISR and combat
|
250 km
|
Kronstadt
|
S-70 Okhotnik
|
UCAV
|
6,000 km
|
Sukhoi (Rostec)
|
Altius
|
UCAV
|
10,000 km
|
Uzga
|
Grom
|
UCAV – ‘loyal wingman’ concept
|
To be determined
|
Kronstadt
|
Kub
|
Loitering munition
|
30 mins at 100 km/h
|
Rostec
|
Lancet
|
Loitering munition
|
40 mins at 100 km/h
|
Rostec
|
Note: The table displays all UAV systems mentioned in this chapter. ISR stands for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance; UCAV for unmanned combat aerial vehicle.
Source: Edmonds, J., Bendett, S. et al. (eds) (2021), AI and Autonomy in Russia, Arlington, VA: CNA, https://www.cna.org/centers/cna/sppp/rsp/russia-ai.
In Syria, Moscow used UAVs around the clock for the first time in 2015, convincing the defence ministry that drones constitute an essential element of modern combat. Today, military UAVs are present across the entire Russian military force structure, with drone companies embedded in motorized rifle and tank brigades and divisions and separate reconnaissance brigades. There are unmanned units in the artillery, engineer-sapper, missile, reconnaissance and railway brigades, with UAV squadrons also having been formed in the Aerospace Forces. Each combined-arms army, brigade and division has two drone platoons for every UAV company, equipped with several drones with ranges between 10 km and 120 km. This structure is replicated across the Airborne Forces and Naval Infantry, with UAV companies present in the Northern and Pacific Fleets. The defence ministry plans to organize long-range heavy drone units into individual reconnaissance aviation squadrons.
While Syria became a massive testing ground for Russia’s short-range drone fleet, the lack of unmanned aerial vehicles capable of striking targets at long range was acutely felt, as the military had to scramble crewed aviation for attack missions, potentially putting pilot lives in danger.
To meet the growing military demand, Russian UAV developers are actively pursuing multiple projects that involve quadcopter, multi-rotor, helicopter-type, fixed-wing and other designs. In line with the overarching theme that military autonomy is supposed to save human lives, concept intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) drones are being developed to replace the crewed ISR aircraft in service today. Swarming and AI RDT&E are being actively pursued – for example, within the Molniya concept, which involves launching multiple jet-powered stealth drones from crewed and uncrewed platforms to conduct aerial and ground strikes and to provide EW and reconnaissance capabilities.
While Syria became a massive testing ground for Russia’s short-range drone fleet, the lack of UAVs capable of striking targets at long range was acutely felt, as the military had to scramble crewed aviation for attack missions, potentially putting pilot lives in danger. This recognition is now driving the defence ministry’s RDT&E of longer-range combat drones. One such significant development is the medium-altitude, long-endurance Orion UAV, with a 250-km range, which was finally acquired by the Russian military in late 2020, becoming the first official combat UAV in service. Another combat UAV project is the Altius, which has a range of up to 10,000 km and took to the air in 2019, with a manufacturing and supply contract finally signed by the state in 2021.
No other drone has received as much global attention as the heavy S-70 Okhotnik. First flown in 2019, it is designed as an interceptor and a ground-attack platform to overcome adversary air defence systems, radar stations and possibly military aircraft. Its key feature is integration with Su-57 fifth-generation manned fighters in ‘loyal wingman’ formations. The Russian defence ministry envisages the Su-57 pilot controlling multiple S-70 drones, with the Okhtonik potentially being armed with hypersonic missiles for greater striking range. According to current deliberations across the defence ministry and its expert community, such teaming could potentially replace entire squadrons of piloted aircraft for reconnaissance and combat missions in the near future. The ministry also plans for the Altius and Okhtonik to have on-board AI for autonomous operations. Additionally, the Kronstadt Bureau – the maker of Orion drones – has unveiled several unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) projects, including the Grom [Thunder] ‘loyal wingman’ concept, which is capable of launching its own drone swarms, and the Sirius, a long-range UCAV that is already slated for acquisition starting in 2023. The defence ministry’s thinking and aspirations for future crewed and uncrewed combat can be summarized by the recently-unveiled Su-75 ‘Checkmate’ light fighter jet concept.Its developer, the state corporation Rostec, envisions this aircraft in both crewed and uncrewed versions, with on-board AI for situational awareness and command and control, and capable of flying with UAVs in a coordinated group.
Finally, the Nagorny Karabakh war of 2020 was a striking demonstration of the potential of a conventional military that acts in concert with UCAVs and loitering munition (or ‘kamikaze’) drones. Like the Syrian conflict, it also laid bare Russia’s lack of either UAV class in active service. Following the conclusion of the war, the Russian defence ministry asked the defence-industrial sector to accelerate the development and testing of these drones. Rostec responded by officially announcing in February 2021 that two of its ‘kamikaze’ drones – the Kub and the Lancet – had been tested in Syria, with the Russian military having priority on their eventual acquisition. Rostec is also planning to incorporate these drones into the new ‘aerial mining’ concept for both ground and aerial targeting. To do this, loitering munitions like the Lancet fly in an aerial ‘net’, forming a ‘minefield’. When detecting an intruder, these drones then fly at the target, supposedly increasing the chances of success by their sheer numbers.
Current and future robotic ground vehicle development
Russian development of UGVs is driven by the defence ministry’s evaluation of the changing nature of ground combat, by the desire to save soldiers’ lives, and to make operations more effective. The Russian defence leadership thinks that introducing combat robotic vehicles with troops while developing their combat employment CONOPS will change how military formations accomplish their tactical tasks in battle. By 2021, Russian defence enterprises had manufactured, tested and fielded multiple models such as Platforma-M, Nerehta, Soratnik, Kungas, Scarab, Sphera, Shturm, Udar, Uran-6, Uran-9 and Uran-14, to name but a few. Numerous smaller tracked and wheeled models for ISR and logistics are also being developed for both the military and the security services.
|
|
|
---|
Platforma-M
|
Combat UGV
|
NITI Progress
|
Nerehta
|
Combat UGV
|
Degtyaryov plant and ARF
|
Soratnik
|
Combat UGV
|
Rostec
|
Kungas
|
UGV swarm concept
|
Special Engineering Design Bureau
|
Scarab
|
Demining UGV (short-range)
|
CET-1
|
Sphera
|
Demining UGV (short-range)
|
CET-1
|
Marker
|
UGV RDT&E concept
|
ARF
|
Uran-6
|
Demining UGV (short-range)
|
JSC 766 UPTK (Kalashnikov-Rostec)
|
Uran-9
|
Combat UGV (operator is located at up to 4 km from the vehicle)
|
JSC 766 UPTK (Kalashnikov-Rostec)
|
Uran-14
|
Firefighting UGV
|
JSC 766 UPTK (Kalashnikov-Rostec)
|
Udar
|
Combat UGV
|
Rostec
|
Prohod -1
|
Heavy demining UGV
|
High Precision Weapons JSC
|
Shturm
|
Heavy UGV for urban combat
|
Uralvagonozavod
|
T-14 Armata
|
Next-generation main battle tank
|
Rostec
|
Note: All systems are mentioned in this chapter.
Source: Edmonds, J., Bendett, S. et al. (eds) (2021), AI and Autonomy in Russia, Arlington, VA: CNA, https://www.cna.org/centers/cna/sppp/rsp/russia-ai.
Broadly speaking, there are two main UGV development pathways in Russia today. One features new vehicles developed from scratch, like the demining Uran-6 and combat Uran-9, along with the Soratnik, Nerehta and Marker concepts. The remote-controlled demining Uran-6 UGV took part in operations in Syria to identify and clear unexploded ordnance, improvised explosive devices and other obstacles harmful to military and civilians, and this vehicle is starting to enter Russian service with engineer battalions and demining units. The Marker has a special role as a testing and evaluation platform for further UGV development. ARF, the Marker project lead, is discussing the vehicle as a test bed for computer vision, fully autonomous movement, and swarm control, while testing deep neural networks on the vehicle to assist in decision-making and to perform tasks independently. The Marker is built to interact with existing and future UAVs, and the ARF team is testing voice control technology for a MUM-T (manned-unmanned teaming) application. Another key design is the Uran-9 that was tested in Syria in a ‘near-combat setting’. There, the vehicle experienced multiple failures in transportation, communication, firing and the operator’s situational awareness capabilities. These failures guided defence ministry thinking about future combat UGV development, and influenced the current debate among military experts and developers on the utility of ground robotics in combat – such as using Uran-9-type vehicles in single engagements as part of mixed formations to identify adversary positions, hard points and to draw enemy fire. Today, the Uran-9 is acquired by the Russian military in combat and engineering battalions.
The second UGV development initiative has multiple UGV projects, like the Udar, Prohod-1 and Shturm, which are built on the chassis of tanks and other combat vehicles already in service with the Russian military. For example, the Udar’s developer chose the BMP-3 armoured vehicle as the basis for this UGV, based on the BMP-3’s already long service and soldiers’ familiarity with it. Specifically, the developer, Rostec, noted that creating a UGV like this from scratch would take many years, while vehicle models are already available for redevelopment and experimentation. As planned, Udar is envisaged as part of the ground forces’ combat and support units, used both independently and as part of UAV and UGV formations. Another concept, the Shturm heavy unmanned combat vehicle, is based on a T-72 tank chassis, one of the most widespread across the Russian military. The defence ministry took over the Shturm’s development in 2019 in order to turn it into an urban combat vehicle, and in August 2021 signed the first acquisition contract.
A further example of a UGV based on an existing platform is the Prohod-1 heavy demining vehicle, based on a T-90 tank chassis. This type of UGV RDT&E also includes ongoing tests of the T-14 Armata main battle tank, along with self-propelled combat systems, for potential autonomous and semi-autonomous operations. Recently, the Uralvagonozavod enterprise, which builds the majority of Russian tanks, announced work on unmanned armoured vehicle concepts based on tank platforms, highlighting the utility of working with available and proven technology to create next-generation fighting systems.
In arguing for using existing vehicle platforms over newly created ones, Russian military commentators note that such platforms are both larger and better protected. UGV logistics play another role in this debate, with experts arguing that smaller vehicles need to be delivered and unloaded for combat, while the likes of the Udar are fully-fledged armoured vehicles that can already operate in conventional motorized rifle units. Other Russian military analysts debate whether the current UGV crop should be used in combat in the first place. Some analysts argue that UGVs like the Uran-9 should be used only in a limited capacity, such as in low-intensity conflict or reconnaissance missions, since Uran-9-like systems would be ‘annihilated by heavy artillery fire’ in battles where a significant amount of armoured vehicles are used by both sides, given that this UGV’s dexterity and manoeuvrability would be inferior to those of specialized crewed units.
With the imagined clash of Russian military robots against enemy counterparts potentially still many years away, the Russian defence ministry has time to further formulate concepts for its growing unmanned ground vehicle combat force requirements.
Despite the development of multiple UGV types, the defence ministry and the Russian military expert community conceptualize their eventual autonomous use in combat, with the vehicles navigating in an unstructured environment and performing tasks in accordance with targets they have been assigned, without direct human participation. This would presumably be accomplished with the help of AI, as the ongoing Marker RDT&E demonstrates. The next logical step for the defence ministry is to test the combination of these and other unmanned vehicles in combined formations to evaluate their capabilities. To that end, the ministry recently announced it would be standing up a unit of 20 Uran-9 UGVs to study their application in combat over the next few years. The lessons from this testing and evaluation will inform the ministry’s drafting of concepts for the applications of military robotics, adding to the data acquired via other UGV and UAV projects discussed in this section. With the imagined clash of Russian military robots against enemy counterparts potentially still many years away, the Russian defence ministry has time to further formulate concepts for its growing UGV combat force requirements.
Current and future maritime robotic vehicle development
For the Russian military, maritime unmanned and autonomous technology today has an overarching ISR scope – to obtain data on the undersea environment and to inform related surface, aerial, undersea or land-based components. Future envisioned roles involve situational awareness as part of anti-submarine (ASW) and counter-mine (CMW) warfare operations, along with the protection of key naval assets such as port facilities. A growing share of Russian unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) may acquire combat roles to identify, track and engage adversary assets below and above the surface. Ultimately, the Russian navy has plans to equip its vessels with surface and subsurface (along with aerial) robotic complements, making each ship a potential carrier and user of unmanned and autonomous technology. Another key principle that guides Russia’s unmanned naval RDT&E is the increasing general automation in the maritime domain. The latest Russian development proposals highlight equipping vessels and carriers with a high degree of automation and the use of robotic systems.
Russia’s proposals for combat maritime autonomy include the much-discussed Poseidon nuclear-capable UUV (see Chapter Three for more details). Another potential combat design is the supposedly anti-submarine Cephalopod UUV, which is possibly intended for escort and guard duties. Finally, the Surrogat UUV can reproduce an acoustic and electromagnetic signature that either mimics an adversary or a Russian submarine, to draw enemy assets out or hide Russian vessels from detection.
Russia’s multiple ISR UUV projects point to the desire to acquire data and information across the undersea domain. This includes the Vityaz deep-water autonomous vehicle, which reached the bottom of the Mariana Trench in 2020. ARF, one of its developers, highlighted that Vityaz’s complete autonomy via AI allowed the vehicle to carry out undersea tasks. Another AI-enabled project is the Galtel underwater vehicle, which was tested by the military in Syria in late 2017 and early 2018 in order to map out the Tartus port area. Another deep-water ISR project is the Klavesin-2R-PM, designed to reach a depth of 6,000 metres. There are multiple smaller UUV models undergoing different stages of RDT&E for mid- to long-term operation.
|
|
|
---|
Poseidon
|
Long-range combat underwater vehicle
|
Rubin and Malahit design bureaux
|
Cephalopod
|
Combat UUV
|
Rubin Design Bureau
|
Surrogat
|
Combat UUV
|
Rubin Design Bureau
|
Vityaz
|
ISR UUV
|
ARF and Rubin Design Bureau
|
Galtel
|
ISR UUV
|
Institute of Marine Technology Problems (RAS)
|
Klavesin-2R-PM
|
ISR UUV
|
Rubin Design Bureau
|
Sarma
|
Long-range ISR UUV
|
ARF and Lazurit
|
Inspektor MK-2
|
Mine countermeasures USV
|
ECA Group (France)
|
Iskatel
|
Mine countermeasures and ISR USV
|
Research and Production Enterprise ‘Aviation and Marine Electronics’
|
Skanda
|
Mine countermeasures and ISR USV
|
Mnev and Co. Shipbuilding
|
Buk-600
|
Mine countermeasures and ISR USV
|
Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University
|
Note: All systems are mentioned in this chapter.
Source: Edmonds, J., Bendett, S. et al. (eds) (2021), AI and Autonomy in Russia, Arlington, VA: CNA, https://www.cna.org/centers/cna/sppp/rsp/russia-ai.
The exploration and securing of multiple natural assets in the Arctic region likewise guides defence ministry development of autonomous maritime systems. In 2019, the ARF unveiled the long-range Sarma UUV project for the Northern Sea Route, designed to cover long distances without surfacing and without external communication with satellites in order to conduct situational awareness and ISR duties. Recently, the Rubin Design Bureau and the ARF unveiled the ‘Iceberg’ concept, which includes crewed and uncrewed vehicles for seismic prospecting, drilling, energy and hydrocarbon production in the Arctic in the near future. Envisaged as a civilian project to give Russia the advantage in the Arctic hydrocarbons race, it could provide the military with additional ISR capabilities on this region. Finally, the defence ministry is designing an underwater microbot swarm that can work in Arctic conditions for hours at a time.
The exploration and securing of multiple natural assets in the Arctic region guides defence ministry development of autonomous maritime systems.
At the same time, Russia’s debate about unmanned surface vehicle development is dominated by divisions over the utility of foreign imports and domestic technical capabilities. Russian naval end-users were supposedly unhappy with the French Inspektor Mk 2 unmanned surface vehicle (USV) acquired for the Project 12700 minesweeper, citing manufacturer’s defects. The Russian defence industry has since unveiled domestic USV prototypes. Since 2017, the Russian navy has tested several USVs designed for minesweeper vessels, such as the Iskatel, Skanda, and Buk-600 models, which have various degrees of autonomy, for C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance). It should be noted that among Russia’s many ongoing UUV and USV projects, only the Galtel maritime robotic system has been used in a combat environment, in stark contrast to the multiple Russian UAVs and UGVs that were tested in Syria for further evaluation and development.
Conclusions
In the immediate future, the Russian military will continue to build out its UAV fleet capabilities, incorporating and increasing swarm and ‘loyal wingman’ abilities that tie together piloted and uncrewed systems for greater striking range and better situational awareness. Russia’s reconnaissance-fire and reconnaissance-strike contours pose the greatest challenge to adversary forces, given Russia’s continuing efforts to refine UAV use in practically all major units and formations. As the Russian long-range UCAV capabilities will grow, so will Russia’s ability to deliver strikes against ground and aerial targets at greater distances, increasing the defence ministry’s combat reach. Just as important is the impending proliferation of Russian combat and ISR drones, giving the Russian industry access to new markets and new data on their potential use against US assets and allies. The Russian defence ministry will also continue to experiment with UAV–UGV teaming for more effective battlefield management. In the near term, the UGV testing space will help define how Russian ground forces could fight future wars, and whether such systems can function effectively with manned formations. This trend is exemplified by the use of UGVs and UAVs in September 2021 during the Zapad-2021 military exercises, with the Russian military using Uran-9 UGVs for combat reconnaissance and fire support, Uran-6s for demining operations, Nerehta UGVs for reconnaissance and fire support, and Platforma-M for urban combat missions and passing through minefields. Specifically, Uran-9 and Nerehta UGVs were used in the combat formations of combined arms units. Additionally, the Russian military used Orlan-10 and Forpost UAVs for ISR and target acquisition missions, while Forpost and Orlan-10 combat versions, together with an Orion UCAV, were used for the first time in support of ground attacks.
Russia’s ability to manufacture and test deep-diving UUVs presents one of the growing challenges to Western and NATO forces, as the defence ministry will seek to gain better situational awareness below the waves, while crafting an unmanned systems doctrine that could challenge Western surface and sub-surface assets. At the same time, the Russian navy is far from the mass use of such systems, in contrast to the nearly-ubiquitous aerial drone use. If the Russian military succeeds in designing a multi-domain robotic swarm, it could potentially challenge current Western military superiority by forcing NATO to expend its assets on low-cost Russian robotic systems.
At the same time, unmanned and autonomous technologies were not used in a true peer conflict until the Nagorny Karabakh war of 2020. Today, the US, NATO and Russian forces are testing and using their autonomous technologies against mostly militarily inferior and low-tech adversaries. In the future, the Russian military will continue to refine its robotics technologies and will upgrade its proposed plans for integrating these systems with manned formations to train for a conflict against a peer adversary. On 21 May 2021 Russian defence minister Sergey Shoigu announced that his country had commenced mass production of military robots with AI that can fight autonomously. He did not specify which vehicles he was referring to, and the military expert community debated which of the systems described in this chapter may have been implied in Shoigu’s statement. Regardless of which vehicles may eventually fit Shoigu’s definition, this chapter has discussed multiple projects undertaken by the defence ministry in order to develop technologies that could give Russian forces a battlefield advantage. Should such efforts prove successful, the defence ministry’s investments may result in a force structure that would be better positioned to engage its adversary via a range of unmanned and autonomous systems that are first to the fight, do not carry a human cost in case of a failed mission, and can provide a better situational awareness of the adversary’s forces and intentions.
These developments are not a foregone conclusion, given the Russian military industry’s ongoing struggles with key manufacturing components for autonomous systems, such as microelectronics and engines. Nonetheless, Russia’s mass manufacturing of, and experimentation with, different types of military autonomous systems signals a readiness to change how it conducts military operations, with speed, effectiveness, precision and massed use as the ultimate goals. To address these impending changes to military CONOPS, the US and its European allies should continue to experiment with, and conduct an ongoing analysis of, robotic technologies for gaining a key edge in this emerging technological race. Just as important in the future will be the ability to develop training against adversarial capabilities that is part of an objective evaluation of Russian military robotics CONOPS and TTPs.