The British-Irish Relationship: Past, Present and Future

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Chatham House. I’m Robin Niblett, Director of the Institute, and for those of you who I don’t know, thank you very much for joining us this evening, on a cold, blustery London evening, but for a very hot and current topic, British-Irish relationship, past, present and future. I suspect Tánaiste, that there will be a fair amount of present and future in the Q&A, but I know that, not least given, that we’re celebrating, this year, the 20^th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, that there’s a situating this relationship in its historical context is a particularly important step to take today and really to underscore the importance of this most central, bilateral relationship, not just for the Republic of Ireland, but also, for the United Kingdom. So, this is a meeting on the record and we welcome you back to Chatham House, ‘cause we did have the pleasure of hearing some of your views last year in a private roundtable meeting. But Simon Coveney, who took up the position as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade back in June 2017, also took on the Tánaiste, the Deputy Prime Minister position, in November of last year, joined the Dáil in 98, but has had a great succession of important offices in Cabinet, Minister of Defence, Minister of Agriculture and Minister of Housing, Foreign Affairs. It’s been a, and is, a great career and one that’s really going to give you, I think, a particularly rounded view of the challenges, not just facing Ireland but, of course, also the Brexit process and what this means for Ireland at so many different levels.

Thank you very much, again, for joining us, for sharing your thoughts. We’ll hear your remarks first here and then we’ll have plenty of time to take questions from you, our members of Chatham House. And then we also welcome those members who are joining us via our live stream, and great to have you all with us and, especially, Tánaiste, to have you with us today. Welcome to Chatham House and welcome back, we look forward to your remarks [applause].

Simon Coveney TD

And thank you and thank you for the welcome, again, here, I think this is my third time here now and I hope I’ll have the opportunity to come back again in the future. I’m delighted to be here with you this evening to talk about something that has always been a significant part of my life, and that is the relationship between these two islands. I think maybe it’s important to say that it is important to express positive sentiments at the best possible junctures, by that I mean before the Six Nations, of course, this year. But I want to thank Robin, in particular, for his hosting of me here, again, on multiple occasions.

And the rule of this house has become widely accepted as a way for Politicians and policymakers to speak the truth. A partially closed door, behind which we can truly engage with each other, speak our minds freely and honestly, as friends should, of course, be doing. However, on this occasion, we’re not operating under these rules and I’m pleased, in this case, I see a real value, actually, in reflecting, very publicly, on the vital relationship at a time of great change and uncertainty between Britain and Ireland. Too often, in the past, our bilateral relationship seems to be defined by Northern Ireland and its difficulties, the political differences and, of course, the violent conflicts and the differing perspectives from Dublin and London.

Now, and over the last 18 months, particularly, there’s a danger that our relationship could be defined primarily, or almost exclusively now, by Brexit. I believe, in fact I know, our relationship is deeper and richer and more enduring than the current focus on the EU’s departure from the – the UK’s departure from the – a slight Freudian slip there, from the EU, of course. We should probably think a bit more about that statement, actually. Just as our relationship has always been multi-layered and complex as, indeed, the context in which we continue to discuss and work together in relation to Northern Ireland and the troubles in that part of the United Kingdom and Ireland.

So, we can’t be complacent. We have to work to maintain the habit of co-operation, as I like to call it, that we have known over the past four decades, working side-by-side in Brussels and, indeed, elsewhere. Like all good friends, there needs to be honesty and trust while we often, usually, in fact, agree we should be able to disagree too. In fact, I’d go further, the capacity to disagree openly and honestly and then move on is a mark of the kind of friendship that I think our countries need to have. In the past, we had to work hard to develop and nurture this relationship, despite all of the challenges, and we will have to keep on doing that as we will lose the habit of co-operation around the EU table, we’ll have to use our existing bilateral mechanisms to much greater effect.

We are fortunate that there are already a number of East-West institutions, such as the British Irish Council and the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference, which could be utilised to a much fuller degree, in my view. We also have the British-Irish Parliamentary Assembly and regular meetings of all our – of our Permanent Secretaries and General Secretaries, in terms of Government co-operation. And we may have to imagine anew, too, in order to sustain our relationship and those connections that are so important, for instance, I think we need to consider whether, through new structures or, perhaps, existing ones, we should examine, seriously, the possibility of bringing both Governments together annually in London or in Dublin, on alternative years, to discuss issues of mutual co-operation and concern. And I don’t mean simply ensuring that our leaders meet at Taoiseach and Prime Minister level, I’m talking about a more complete discussion that involves Cabinets and Governments and their Advisors.

This annual summit of all senior Ministers would allow for co-operation across a broad range of shared interest. Everything from energy to the environment, from transport to technology, to employment, to future trade opportunities and so on, this is what neighbours should be doing. It could also be prepared for, in the preceding weeks and months, by teams of officials from relevant departments and ministries, which, again, I think would focus the mechanics and infrastructure of the state on looking for ways to co-operate for mutual interest.

These structures matter, as much because of the personal interactions they help facilitate, as any, kind of, formal agenda. As the UK departs the European Union, we don’t want to lose the, kind of, co-operation that can be fostered from a simple conversation in a corridor or a cup of tea or coffee in the margins of a meeting. British and Irish Politicians and officials need to keep working and meeting together to ensure that the understanding we have of each other does not diminish.

This should be our shared future but let me look backwards for a moment. It’s, perhaps, an understatement to say that our shared history is a complex one and, at times, has not been easy. There are some who might look back hundreds of years to make their case in that respect, but I don’t think that’s really necessary. Within many of our lifetimes there were periods when being Irish in Britain was deeply uncomfortable and, indeed, being Britain in Ireland wasn’t a whole lot better. And looking back at the archives, it is clear that we didn’t always have the channels and contacts between Dublin and London that should have been there to address difficulties or knocks or missteps in our relationship.

On occasion, the diplomatic contacts were good and yielded dividends. I can think of the great diplomatic work of early Irish Governments, which worked with the Canadian and Australian and, yes, British counterparts, to peacefully loosen ties with London and to allow us to step out as a more fully independent state on the world stage. We can recall the negotiations in the 1930s, which peacefully, and an agreement with London, dismantled some difficult legacies of the Anglo-Irish Treaty. And we can think also, of the free-trade negotiations of the 1960s and preparations for us joining the European Economic Community, as it then was, together in 1973. However, these connections seemed to falter during the early years of the conflict in Northern Ireland. They weren’t as strong as they should have been, and it seemed, for a time, that our relationship would always be hampered and strained by that conflict and, indeed, mediated almost exclusively through the prism of it. And yet, despite the pressures, we eventually found ways of working together to resolve that conflict. And one of the great, unforeseen gifts of the peace process was that by working together we did rekindle a relationship and we brought it to a level of positivity the previous generations probably couldn’t have imagined, this yielded the Good Friday, or the Belfast Agreement, which marks its 20^th anniversary this year.

The genius of the agreement is that it provides a framework for the totality of the relationships on our two islands between communities in Northern Ireland, between North and South on the island of Ireland and across the Irish Sea, underpinned by international support, from both the EU and the US. I’m always struck by just how carefully woven together these relationships are, despite the great forces and pressures of history. And by the intricacy and balance of the agreement’s fundamental framework, with each of the three interlocking relationships reinforcing the other, strengthen one and you strengthen them all, damage one and you’ll damage them all, as we are currently seeing in the context of a lack of devolved Government in Belfast. And the agreement removed barriers and borders, both physically, on the island of Ireland, and emotionally, between communities in Ireland and between the two islands, hence, our very real concerns about the implications of Brexit, especially a hard Brexit, for our island and our shared peace process. Despite current political difficulties, it is right and proper that we collectively mark the anniversary of the agreement, if only to recall, once again, the core tenants at its heart and the centrality of the interlocking relationships on and between these islands, we would forget them at our collective cost.

Before I, inevitably, turn to Brexit, it’s impossible to avoid that subject when you’re in this great country, or in mine, at the moment, and let’s take a moment to look at the richer, deeper, more complex relationship that I spoke about earlier. I believe it was captured well by our Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, speaking in the European Parliament two weeks ago. There he spoke of the importance to him and to the Irish people of our relationship with the United Kingdom.

He spoke of his Irish mother, who was a Nurse, and how she met and married his Indian father, who’s a Doctor here in England. How his sister lives here with his English born niece and nephew. This isn’t an uncommon story, I, too, have deep, personal ties with this country. I studied here for four years. I worked in – just outside Edinburgh, for a period of time. My mother had a British passport for most of her life, and most of – well, half of her family are very English and very proud to be. My brother runs a company that employs more people in Britain than any other Irish company, nearly 13,000 people. So, I, and many of the other decision-makers and many other Irish people, have a personal vested interest in the future of Britain as a country that we love and have been part of at different parts in our lives.

To say Ireland and the UK are close friends and neighbours is therefore, a lot more than some platitude, it is the reality of our lives. Over many generations, Britain has been the first place where our people sought work when our own economy faltered and, unfortunately, that has happened on more than a number of occasions. Immigrants came here to find work and, in doing so, provided Britain with a much-needed labour force that built and, indeed, after the Second World War, rebuilt much of the physical infrastructure in your great cities, and they built a social infrastructure too. These were the Teachers and the Nurses who taught and cared people in this country, here in London and Liverpool and Manchester and beyond, leaving a legacy of a deeply integrated Irish community, which has contributed greatly to the development of the Britain that we know today.

In more recent times, as Ireland’s third level education sector has expanded, our immigrants arrived here with a greater diversity of skills and life experience than ever before. It’s no surprise, then, that there are now over 60,000 Irish born Directors on the boards of British companies. We have a trading relationship that is worth over £55 billion or €65 billion every year, which sustains over 400,000 jobs in Britain and Ireland across both of our islands.

This week, about 38,000 Irish companies will trade directly with Britain. To give you a sense and scale, that’s about 10% of our workforce directly connected to that relationship. Ireland is the UK’s fifth largest exporting destination. I know that in the Brexit debate here, there’s a focus on the UK seeking to develop trading relations with high-growth, high potential export partners. Whatever about places further afield, let me say that Ireland is one such partner with an economy now forecast to grow, again, at 4.4% in 2018, probably, for the fourth year in a row, the fastest growing economy in the European Union.

The flow of people over and back across the Irish Sea every day has made the Dublin/London air corridor the second busiest on the planet, so business and our trade relationship is currently booming, and let me be very clear about one thing, we need that to continue. Ireland needs and wants a happy and prosperous United Kingdom and there should be no ambiguity about that in the context of the fractious negotiations that have and will continue, probably, to take place as we try and navigate our way through the challenges of Brexit. This helps shape the objectives we carry into the next phase of the EU/UK negotiations, also.

And so, to Brexit. Speaking candidly, we all know the decision of the United Kingdom to leave the EU has highlighted a major policy difference on how we see our relationship with Britain or with Europe and, as such, we will see Ireland and the UK pursue different paths in the years ahead. Without doubt, one of the core pillars of our stronger relationship, over the past 40 years or so, has been our shared membership of, and partnership in, the European Union, stemming from our simultaneous accession, as I mentioned, with Denmark back in 1973, the year after I was born.

Sitting around the EU table as equals and partners, our officials and political leaders have learned to work together. We learnt that we shared much in common, both in terms of interests but, more importantly, in terms of values. Some commentators that I’ve heard have asked the question, “Having joined together in 1973, should we not leave together in 2019?” As if the intervening 45 years of membership were of no consequence. This is probably fair to say – it is probably fair to say that our journeys as member states have been quite different.

It is for me to speak to the – it’s not for me to speak of the UK’s experience perceptions of EU membership, however, as an Irish citizen, as I said, born just one month after our accession referendum, as a citizen who has grown up in an Ireland visibly, demonstrably growing and benefiting from EU membership, I feel that I’m qualified to speak of our national experience. Ireland’s membership of, what is now the European Union, has quite simply been transformative for our country. It has allowed us to develop and grow into a confident, and relatively prosperous, country, at ease with ourselves and, perhaps, it has helped us to be at ease with our neighbours too.

Over the past 40 years, through extensive EU support, we’ve been able to invest in our infrastructure, our agriculture and directly our people. Working collectively with our EU partners on common foreign policy and security issues our voice has become stronger and our advocacy for a values-based world has been strengthened, together with UN membership, EU membership has helped us. In the words of one of our many patriots, Robert Emmet, to take our place among the nations of the world.

In Ireland, we now have over 80% satisfaction rate with the EU among our population. We have a generally positively disposed media. We have a young population, which has benefited hugely from programs like Erasmus and we have a science, research and enterprise base, which has secured about half a billion euros of EU funding from Horizon 2020.

We look around our EU table and we see friends and partners. We see member states, which, like us, stepped out into the world stage after the horrors of the first World War. We see member states, which have stepped out from under the shadow of stronger neighbours. We see member states, which have known conflict and famine and immigration, and which now inhabit a sphere of peace and prosperity, that they have grown to take for granted.

In a word, we feel comfortable around this table, and that’s where we’re going to stay. We’re, therefore, committed to the European ideal and to our place in Europe. We are, however, deeply disappointed that our closest neighbour and ally, on so many issues, is choosing a different course, but we respect that. The EU will be the lesser union without the United Kingdom. But Ireland’s journey, as a committed member of the European Union, will, of course, continue. So, we want to do this while maintaining the closest possible relationship with our closest neighbour and friend and given what I’ve said about how our economies and societies are intertwined, it’ll come as no surprise that we have viewed the potential impact of Brexit, especially, in certain circumstances, with such concern. And it should have come of no surprise, either, that we worked so hard with the EU taskforce and our fellow EU partners, during phase one, two protect our own vital interests, including the signature UK Ireland achievement of the Northern Ireland Peace Process.

We’re very pleased that both UK Government and the EU have prioritised the protection of the Good Friday Agreement and the gains of that peace process, including no return to a hard border on the island of Ireland, and that we now have firm commitments in that regard, an agreement on the outlines of how it can be achieved. I spent much of today focusing on that particular conversation with key decision-makers here.

I’m also very pleased that the common travel area has also been protected in these negotiations, allowing Irish and British people to continue to travel, to live, to work and access a range of rights and benefits in each other’s country. The common travel area isn’t just about travel, actually, it’s really about mutual recognition of citizenship, almost, between our two countries. We even allow each other to vote in each other’s elections. So, it’s a special relationship that we are going to protect through Brexit and Britain is going to protect it too, because it values.

I look forward to seeing these commitments of phase one formalised in phase two, and we should see that in the coming weeks, and we also work to ensure a very positive future EU/UK relationship as a whole. I’ve said, many times, that I believe that Ireland actually, will be Britain’s closest friends in phase two of these negotiations, even though we were responsible for a little bit of stress in the context of trying to move onto phase two during the phase one negotiations in December.

The outcomes, I think that we would like to see, and that most British people would like to see, are not dissimilar. No doubt, there will be questions from the floor on Brexit related issues and I’ll be happy to respond to them. But as our relationship shouldn’t be defined, primarily, by Brexit, nor should this speech. I’ve spent a lot of time talking about Brexit, so it’s nice to talk about a few broader issues.

I will only make one further points on our future relationship because, as I said earlier, Ireland needs and wants a happy and prosperous United Kingdom. I hope the British Government and Parliament will reflect carefully on the path to prosperity over the coming weeks, because they need to, because these negotiations are moving on and we are close to decision time. The most successful single market and Customs Union in the world, a market that UK genius helped to design, that market is on your doorstep. The British economy is integrated wholly into it and gains from access to it, to a degree that will be impossible to replicate for future – from future UK only trade deals with third countries. The EU and UK both stand to gain from the closest possible customs and regulatory partnership and I hope the UK is ambitious in what it seeks in this respect, with an eye on what is achievable and where the EU is coming from. We’ve got to focus on realities, in terms of what is possible at this stage in the negotiations. But I still believe a very positive outcome is possible with the right approach from both sides.

Ambition, for the Irish/UK relationship, is another thing. Most speeches about British/Irish relations, in recent times, have mentioned Queen Elizabeth’s visit to Ireland, including Cork, of course, where I come from, in 2011. Can I say, just on a personal level, that was a really, really powerful experience for many Irish people and I suspect it was for many Irish people in this room also. I had the privilege of taking Her Majesty into, what’s called, the English Market in Cork City, where she was meeting traders and, actually, for the first time in her week-long visit, when she came out of the English Market onto the main street in Cork, which is referred to as the Rebel City in Ireland, so there was all sorts of connotations, which is why it was such a powerful experience in Cork. She decided, herself, to ignore the advice of her handlers and walked across the street to meet the public for the first time in Ireland and, ironically actually, the first person she met was my grandmother. My grandmother who is, and whose life has been, a product of the Anglo-Irish relationship and who always wanted to meet Her Majesty in Ireland, and it was an extraordinary, powerful experience for her and for our family and was not – it wasn’t organised by me at all. It was one of these bizarre coincidences that happened, but it was extraordinary. And, of course, that same year, there was the reciprocal visit here by President Michael D. Higgins in 2014, which I did – which I hope and, I think, touched many British hearts also.

These visits were rightly seen as high points in our relationship and that many, in generations past, could scarcely have envisaged. It became a truism, perhaps, even a little clichéd and worn, to say that relations between us have never been better. When things are going well, of course, it means that you’ve more to lose, though. Looking forward, Ireland is choosing a different relationship with Europe than that sought by the United Kingdom. However, it does not change the fact that we will remain each other’s closest neighbours and friends and the bilateral ties between us remain deep and far-reaching and impossible to untie, even if we tried to, in the context of their depth. And despite recent differences, I’m happy to say that the relations between our islands remain strong and the relationship between our Governments remain strong also, as I found out today, in the context of the hospitality that I’ve received here. Of course, there are inevitable tensions that arise during difficult negotiations, and an issue like Brexit is exceptional in that respect. But, like any close friends, these do not harm and should never threaten the foundations of our friendship and we should be ambitious for that friendship in the future.

Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, who I met again this morning, has spoken of a bridge across the English Channel to Europe. Others are talking about a bridge between Larne and Portpatrick in Scotland, and I certainly see no harm in looking at the feasibility of big infrastructure projects to link our islands, why not? If a credible economic case for any initiative can be made in that area. But metaphorical bridges are less costly, but with no less value. So, I think it is useful to recall the multitude of bridges already stretching across the Irish Sea between our peoples, our Governments, our businesses, our culture, our sport, science, education, third level institutions that work together. The bridges that will allow us to continue to nurture our relationships long into the future.

As President Higgins said, when he spoke in Buckingham Palace during his state visit here in 2014, he said, “Ar scáth a chéile a mhairimíd,” and that translates into, “We live in the shadow, but also in the shelter of one another.” The relationship between our countries is, both vital and full of vitality, and one which is of great value. I would urge everybody who cares about the relationship between our countries to treat it with care, to protect and nurture it and to invest in what brings us closer together. I look forward to your questions and thank you very much for taking the time to be here [applause].

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you very much, Foreign Minister. Thank you for those remarks. As you said, and it was very apparent in your comments there, this is a multi-layered relationship, deep physical interconnections, family interconnections, personal, historical, and you certainly laid out the economic, a relationship that’s been defined, in many cases, despite this, by conflict, by violence, but that have been overcome. And they’ve been overcome largely, in the context of the European Union and of the relationship that that created, and as you said here, that is one of your worries and that’s one of the worries of many people in the Republic of Ireland, that somehow that good work is going to get pulled apart. Well, as you said, you no longer have the Brits round the table.

We’re going to open up and get some questions in. May I take the privilege of the Chair to dig in on one, as, inevitably, I said, we get to the present and the future and I do want to get, obviously, a little bit into the Brexit issue. There may be others who want to discuss other topics here. But you said, in your remarks, that you hope the UK is ambitious in what it seeks to get from a future agreement. I think you then said, “Within the realm of what should be possible.” It strikes me, looking at where the Government is, as it looks to the second phase of the negotiations, to the extent that it’s able to focus on that at the moment, that it is trying to be ambitious, the United Kingdom Government wants full access to the single market.

I think it recognises it won’t be a member of the single market and the Prime Minister has said we will lose the right to vote, the right to design it, but certainly, the British Government’s view is, we should have access, the same regulations, why would we not? And, of course, this includes services, including financial services. And I think you said in your remarks that “The Republic of Ireland will be Britain’s best friend in phase two,” it might have been tough in phase one, but in phase two, you’ll be there. Could we interpret from this that the Republic of Ireland might, therefore, be supportive of the UK continuing to have full, unfettered access to the services markets as well of European Union, provided the UK follows the rules, providing there’s regulatory alignment? Why the line that we seem to be hearing from certain European leaders, that, “Oh, no, no, that doesn’t fit into the, kind of, models of free-trade agreements.” I mean, what do you think?

Simon Coveney TD

There’s a lot in that. The – well, what I think is that what we want out of this process, but also what I believe is best for Britain, but, of course, Britain will decide for itself what it wants, is to have as close to the status quo as possible from a trading perspective. That deals with the border issues and the island of Ireland and it means we don’t have to trigger the default position, which was negotiated before Christmas. We want to see Britain as close as possible to the single market as can be negotiated. We want Britain to be part of a new Customs Union partnership or Customs Union agreement, which will have to be redesigned, undoubtedly, because, at the moment, even if they wanted to be, you legally can’t be a member of the Customs Union if you’re not a member of the European Union. So, either way, it’s going to have to be redesigned.

But the really important thing is that there is a signal of intent coming from Britain, based on what is realistic, in terms of what can be negotiated, but also, is ambitious, in terms of its relationship with the largest single market in the world. And what I mean by realistic is, you know, the reason why the single market of the European Union is so attractive is because that goes with EU membership. So, the European Union was never solely an economic deal, it was about rights, responsibilities, opportunities that everybody shares in this one union. Britain’s choosing to leave that union, of course, wants to hold onto the trade benefits and trade opportunities that it would have held as a member, still holds as a member, but has also expressed an ambition to negotiate its own free-trade agreements all over the world.

So, I think there’s going to be a choice that the British Government will have to make, and I know there’s a lot of intense discussion on this right now, and that is where do the priorities for Britain lie? What is best for Britain here? Is it a close as possible relationship with a single market? Or is it going to be the ability to be able to negotiate free-trade agreements on a bilateral basis all over the world? Which, in my view, will result in it being impossible for them to negotiate as close as possible relationship with a single market that it will allow for barrier free-trade and border free-trade. And that’s why I think this choice is not a real choice when people say it’s possible to have both. So, you can have versions of both, but you can’t have a complete barrier free access into the single market and, at the same time, to be trying to negotiate competitive advantage for yourself that you will use to compete with people that are facilitating you, in terms of access into the single market, and if those two things don’t go together, why would the European Union want to facilitate that to their disadvantage in the future?

So, that’s why I think there are some tough choices, in terms of where does Britain’s future lie, in terms of benefit. For me, we would argue the case strongly that I just – and I’ve looked at and I’ve really tried to understand the case that actually Britain will be better off with some type of hands-off free-trade agreement doing its own thing globally, in terms of trade policy, I just don’t see how the numbers add up for that. And I believe if the United Kingdom were to request a very close future relationship, in terms of single market and Customs Union, I believe the European Union would respond generously to that. But that isn’t the current position, the current position is we’re leaving the single market, we’re leaving the Customs Union, we want to negotiate our own free-trade agreements and, of course, if that is – if that position is maintained or sustained, well, then, the European Union will simply negotiate accordingly, and what we’ll have his a classic free-trade agreement, which, in my view, will not be a good outcome, and certainly won’t be a good outcome Ireland, but I don’t believe it’ll be a good outcome for Britain either.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you, very clear answer. I think the connectivity you made there between that ambition for a, as you said, for unfettered free-trade agreements and, at the same time, trying to retain a full access single market, that’s where you see the potential conundrum. Right, let’s get some questions in. I’m sure I’m going to see lots of hands go up and I may, given that we have to have a really hard finish and just before quarter to, so you can catch your plane back, I’ll take two or three in a gap, in a group. So, there’s a gentleman there, gentleman here, I’ll take two at the front and one there to start with and then, yeah, thank you.

Member

Thank you, sir, [inaudible – 38:13], Germany, a military attaché accredited to UK and to Ireland. I’ve got a question, actually, for the word that you’ve mentioned in your title, ‘future’. So, when you are saying about the Good Friday Agreement, could you see a vision for the future even to come for the Good Friday Agreement for a unified Ireland?

Simon Coveney TD

You’re trying to get me into trouble now.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

I’ll let you take – reflect, take that one first then we’ll come…

Simon Coveney TD

No, no, I mean, I can give a very quick answer to that. The – any decisions, in relation to the constitutional future of Northern Ireland, Ireland and Britain is – the rulebook for that is very clear. It’s the Good Friday Agreement or it’s often referred to, in London, as the Belfast Agreement. And it’s a very democratic process and everybody has bought into that, a large majority of people on the island of Ireland, North and South, have voted for that and so that’s the rulebook, everybody knows how it works.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, let me take them in groups, first the question here and the lady here, please, and then I’ll get to everyone else.

Michael Harvey

Thank you, Michael Harvey, and member of Chatham House, and I’m really following on from the Chairman’s question because I didn’t really hear much of an answer about financial services. The Brexit terms will need to be agreed by all 27 countries, plus the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom will want tariff free access for financial services. It’s argued that Britain’s economic dependency is on financial services. I’ve seen the explosive and, indeed, exponential growth of Dublin’s financial services infrastructure in the last two years. I went there in 2015, 2017, last year, and it was phenomenal. So, the question is, what will be Ireland’s likely response to Britain’s demands to protect this European financial services dominance?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, just hold that thought ‘cause I want to get the couple in, if I can, otherwise – yeah, please, madam, lady here.

Fiona Mitchell

Hi, Fiona Mitchell from RTE News. Tánaiste, we’ve seen the, kind of, divisions that the Brexit vote has brought on the UK Cabinet here, given that the Irish Government is heading into a, what’s, potentially, going to be a very divisive abortion referendum, do you fear divisions also developing within the Cabinet in Ireland, and given that there was such a wide range of views around the Cabinet table on the issue?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you and just, there’s a young gentleman there, just immediately there, we’ll try and get a bit of – all sorts of diversity.

Thomas Cole

It’s Thomas Cole, Head of Policy at the Pro-European Group Open Britain. If the United Kingdom were to change its mind on Brexit, would you welcome the UK back in?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Why don’t we take those three to start with, and I’ve got folks over here afterwards, yeah?

Simon Coveney TD

The last question first because I, you know, I don’t think it’s a question that people should discount entirely. I think Donald Tusk is quoted as saying, “If Britain were to change her mind she would be welcomed back with open arms.” I can tell you, there would be no country celebrating more than Ireland would be. But, look, you know, these are democratic choices. The British people voted in a referendum to leave. If Britain decides to change its mind, that’s a matter for Britain. But can I say that if they did choose that, through whatever mechanism at some point in the future following, I don’t see that as a likely prospect, but should it happen, I believe there would be an extraordinarily generous approach from the rest of the European Union in response to that. I don’t believe there will be any I told you so. Instead, I think there would be, both a relief and a – and, as I say, a very generous response. But I think it’s a – I think, certainly, as we see it today, I think it’s unlikely.

In terms of Fiona’s question, I thought the issue of abortion might come up in somebody’s question today. Can I say, you know, we had a very long Cabinet meeting, as you know, on Monday evening to try to provide some clarity to the country, in terms of how we were going to progress this issue, and there was unanimity in the Cabinet, in terms of how we should move forward. We’re going to hold a referendum, hopefully, before the end of May. Everybody in the Cabinet is supporting a change to the Irish Constitution to remove Article 43(3). I support that too, strongly. I believe that the status quo, in terms of how we treat women in crisis pregnancy in Ireland, is totally unacceptable and should change, and I hope the Irish people will support that change.

I believe that this issue is too complex to attempt to deal with it in a wording, in a written constitution and so, I believe that the Dáil and Seanad should legislate for this difficult and complex and very motive issue in Ireland, and this Government wants to do that. There are some differences of opinion, in terms of the content of that legislation, but there’s a lot more agreement than there is disagreement, I can assure you. We want to protect women. We want to protect their health. We want to provide services in Ireland that, unfortunately, many women have to leave Ireland to receive right now. And, of course, there will be a discussion around the responsibility of the state also, to protect an unborn child, where are the lines? How do we prioritise women’s health and women’s lives in that context? Which, of course, we should, in my view.

So, these are motive issues, but I hope we will be able to have a debate this time round that isn’t quite as divisive and as nasty as some of the campaigns in the past on this issue, and I certainly intend to try to give some leadership, as I know the Taoiseach will and Minister Harris and others, who will be very involved in this debate, to try to encourage and convince people that we need to make changes that are necessary and recognise the negative consequences of the wording in the constitution that’s been there since 1983. So, I think you’ll actually find a lot of unity within the Government on this issue and there will be respect for some difference of opinion within the Cabinet on this issue too, in relation to the content of the legislation that may come later. But the first challenge, and I think there’s very strong unity within Government on it, is to try and successfully carry a referendum to the people and get it passed. So that’s that question.

In relation to financial services, I mean, I think, I know important financial services is to the British economy, it’s a huge part, particularly of this city, which is a global centre for financial services and, of course, financial services in Ireland have benefited from that. Many of the big companies have satellite operations in Dublin and the relationship is very, very strong. I think it will be a difficult negotiation for Britain, though, I have to say. I think the response will be, look, if you want the benefits of remaining dominant, in the context of European financial services, well, then, there’s an avenue open to you to do that, which is to remain part of an extended single market, which facilitates that.

I think when President Macron was in Britain recently, I think he made that point very clearly as well. So, you know, this negotiation requires choices to prioritise. Being part of a single market is a privilege and there are real economic benefits to that. Leaving a single market has consequences too and that’s why I think the reality of what’s possible here needs to be the focus of political debate, over the next few months, as well as trying to position Britain in the context of the final model that they’d like to negotiate. But, as I say, I think there’s a, sort of, a wait and see approach in the European Union that the moment, waiting to see what the British Government is actually asking for. Because I don’t believe that the best outcome here will be delivered by simply saying, “We’re leaving the Customs Union, leaving the single market, leaving the European Union and we’re going to pursue our own global trade strategy.” You know, I think the consequences for Britain, in the context of the benefits of the single market in the European Union, will be a big factor in those considerations.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, gentleman first there and then here, two on this side, ‘cause I haven’t been to this side of the room yet, yeah. The microphone should be there, or who’s got it? Oh, sorry, I’ll start at the front. I’ll start at the front. Sorry, sorry [inaudible – 47:31].

Member

Thank you, Minister, welcome. I’m picking up the word ‘bridge’ that you used, how seriously should we take the thought of a bridge between Ireland and Scotland, given that trade travels on wheels? And perhaps it might be an incentive for the UK to follow the Republic and go metric.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Okay, let’s hold that thought, and microphone there, please.

Andrew MacKinlay

Thank you very much. Andrew MacKinlay, a former member of the British-Irish Parliamentary body, not Brexit. Éamon de Valera, 97 years ago, authored a document called, ‘Document No. 2’, which had the concept of external association, which is basically, what the majority of Commonwealth countries have today. And you alluded to your predecessor, External Affairs Minister, O’Higgins, who was one of the great Architects of the Statute of Westminster, which was one of the cornerstones of the modern Commonwealth, and so on. Isn’t it time, please, that consideration is given to re-joining or taking your seat, which is just dormant, on the Commonwealth, in the Commonwealth? Arguably, they didn’t leave, it was just never picked up. There was a, sort of, intemperate time of Costello’s Government and the chair is there. And particularly as Ireland, those two Statesman of different sides have contributed so much to the development of the modern Commonwealth, which is a mutual association and no longer the British Commonwealth.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Just pass the microphone right forward to you there and I’ll be able to do three here and then we’ll come to this side of the room again, yeah.

Sean Curtin

Sean Curtin, member of Chatham House. I would like to focus on Northern Ireland. The US input in the Good Friday Peace Agreement was quite substantial, and I note that Bill Clinton recently said he thought it was one of his greatest foreign policy achievements, his part in there. But I notice that the Taoiseach, at the beginning of this month, made it clear that he didn’t think that Donald Trump’s – Donald Trump, President Trump’s offer of intervention to help in the current negotiations would be beneficial. And I wonder what your view is, particularly in the context, because I think that when it comes to Northern Ireland, the US, in the past, has been very helpful, do you think that there is now, perhaps, a divergence of views between England and Ireland over that? Thank you.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

I’ve taken those three and then I may have to do a last group after that.

Simon Coveney TD

Yeah, and on Northern Ireland, the US has played a very significant role, as indeed has the EU. They’ve been very different types of roles actually, in terms of political persuasion and trying to get deals across the line and, of course, you know, the role of people like George Mitchell has been absolutely instrumental in Northern Ireland and, indeed, the Clintons, and that’s why they’re loved in Ireland, both Bill and Hilary Clinton. The – having said that, though, I think the challenges in Northern Ireland are somewhat different now and if you spend time with the parties, as I do, and I’ll be in Belfast again tomorrow evening, you see that actually, there is a determination now, I think, to try and do it themselves. You know, this is 20 years since the Good Friday Agreement. There is a view, I think, that they don’t need outsiders to come and be mediators and tell them what to do. I think that Sinn Fein and the DUP, while, of course, the parties come from very different places and have a lot of different perspectives, I think they are working together to try to negotiate the re-establishment of devolved Government at the moment. It’s not there yet and so we need to be very cautious, in terms of how we comment on that.

But I just think we’re living in a different time now and the parties in Northern Ireland look for a different type of support. They’re more self-confident about what they want and, of course, they’ve been involved in an assembly and in an executive on and off for the last two decades, so it is different. Having said that, it would not be true to say that the US doesn’t still have an impact in Northern Ireland. There are some very senior, both Congressmen and Senators, in the US, who take a very deep, personal interest in what’s happening in Northern Ireland and I regularly phone them and brief them on what’s happening, and they do contact different parties in Northern Ireland at different times to try and encourage them to do more, so I wouldn’t disregard that influence.

In relation to Andrew, I think, ironically, the last time I was in Chatham House, I was asked the same question, why doesn’t Ireland join the Commonwealth?

Member

Re-join.

Simon Coveney TD

Re-join, yeah. In truth, there are some, in Ireland, who would advocate for that, but I think it would be a difficult political sell right now. The perception in Ireland of the Commonwealth is that it’s still the British Commonwealth, even though that’s, of course, not the structure of the modern Commonwealth any longer. So, I think, you know, for Ireland our Commonwealth is the EU. Our voice in the world is through multilateral structures in the EU and the UN. There may be some point in the future where we would consider that, but I think it’s unlikely to feature, seriously, in political discourse for the moment.

In terms of a bridge between Ireland and Britain, well, I mean, actually, there have been different proposals at different times. Sometimes it’s between Northern Ireland and Scotland there’s been – people have looked at, you know, Dublin into Wales, you know, Wexford into Wales. You know, look, these are huge capital expenditure projects, so I think we need to be very careful that we don’t start creating an expectation around something that proves to be, sort of, a fantasy. But, having said that, I don’t think we should discount these things. I mean, if you think about it, you know, the flight travel between Dublin and London at the moment is four and a half million people a year. It’s the second busiest route anywhere on the planet, and that includes cities that have 20 and 30 million people. So, you know, little old Ireland and, obviously, London, which is a huge metropolis, that route is, by far, the busiest in Europe and the second busiest in the world. So, there’s a huge appetite to move between the two islands and, of course, that – you know, not even counting the numbers, in terms of ferries and all the rest of it. So, you know, I think if we’re going to be serious about this, you know, you need to look at costing proposals and then, having a serious dialogue on it, in terms of shared cost and so on. But I wouldn’t discount it, but I think it’s important not to build up a hope around something that may be just unaffordable.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

[Inaudible – 54:48].

Simon Coveney TD

I think the other questions, yeah.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Can I squeeze in a couple of last questions? Because you must go, and I’ll leave you with your timing a little bit or I’ll push it. But I’m just going to take two, and I apologise, lots of hands are up, but I’m going to take the lady there and the young gentleman here, and I apologise for those many other people I haven’t got.

Simon Coveney TD

If you want to take three or four I’ll give quicker answers the next time.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Oh, one of your staff’s going to give me a really hard time on that, yeah.

Member

I’d like an answer that isn’t quick. I believe you spent an hour and 15 minutes with Philip Hammond this afternoon, so I’m wondering if you can give us any, sort of, indication as to whether his vision of Brexit is something that is getting a little bit more traction in the Tory Party, given how roundly he was dismissed in the past few days?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Gentleman here.

Member

If the EU – the UK, does keep a close relation to the EU, it will likely want a say, somehow, even without a vote, in how the EU legislates, regulates. Would you welcome a UK representative in the room? How do you see that working?

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

And I must ask one last question, one colleague, at least, from Chatham House, at the front here.

Patricia Lewis

I’m Patricia Lewis from Chatham House. Well, I would like to see the ferry between Cork and Swansea re-established, but I wanted to ask you about security and defence issues. The relationship between Britain and Ireland on security and defence has really improved, it’s really increased, and there are major issues for both countries, not least of which is cyber security and I wonder if you could talk about that relationship going forward.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

If I could just take one on the end, ‘cause your question hasn’t been asked. If the UK is not able to strike the kind of regulatory alignment that the December 8^th agreement implied would be achieved, what are the kinds of powers that Stormont has that might enable continued collaboration on the island of Ireland, yeah, that might obviate that? All in about two minutes, I think, judging by the look on the front floor.

Simon Coveney TD

Clearly, I haven’t given enough headlines today. First of all, it’s the third time that I’ve met Philip Hammond at length and it was a very good and very honest conversation, in terms of what’s possible and what’s not. He is one of the key decision-makers of the British Government, but he is, he’s one of – but there are others too, of course, and so, you know, I think it would be wrong for me to go into the detail of that meeting, to be honest. I also had – I mean, I had quite long meetings with a number of other Cabinet Ministers today also, so I don’t want to single out one of the conversations, I think that would be unfair to Philip. But I – so far as to say that I think that, you know, I have made the case, and I mean it, that Ireland is a friend of Britain, these negotiations, even though we’re on the other side of the negotiating table, and we will maintain solidarity with our EU colleagues. But we do, I think, play a very unique role. Ireland understands Britain well, and many of us have lived here, worked here, studied here. I have many very, very good friends that are British and I think that we do have to play a role in ensuring that the EU understands the British mindset in the context of what’s possible in these negotiations, and I wouldn’t discount that influence in the context of the very difficult negotiation period that’s coming up in the next few weeks.

Britain needs a say in the single market if it’s going to be part of it, I can understand that, you know, I don’t see Britain ever being part of something that, essentially, you know, the rules of which are decided by somebody else. Britain is too powerful, too big, too proud for that and so, of course, that has to be part of any negotiated outcome or solution and, you know, I think that’s understood. The – I’d like the Cork, Swansea ferry back as well, although, I’m glad to say, that in the last few weeks, we’ve seen a Cork Santander ferry being launched, so we’re reaching out directly to the EU.

In terms of security and defence, actually, yeah, when I was Defence Minister, I signed with my counterpart here, the first Memorandum of Understanding on defence. There is a lot of quiet and professional co-operation happening between Ireland and Britain right now on security and defence issues, and so there should be. Because if you share a common travel area, if you allow free movement between the two islands, as we will continue to do post-Brexit, well, then, you have to share information on core security issues to make sure that we have a role in protecting British citizens, just like British – the British authorities have a role in protecting Irish citizens in Ireland, if there’s going to be a constant churn and movement of people between these two islands. And so, that’s not undermining Irish, you know, military neutrality or any of that stuff, this is practical co-operation between neighbours and we do a lot of it.

We also, on the defence side, train together at times. We look at joint procurement at times in certain areas and, of course, more recently, I’m glad to say, ‘cause I’ve been involved in it, we have worked together on joint peacekeeping missions. We worked together on the Ebola crisis in West Africa and we’ll continue, if I have anything to do with it anyway, to look to try to do things together as two countries that are closely tied and can impact positively in other parts of the world.

In terms of that, kind of, veiled question of – look, you know, there was a tough negotiation before Christmas. We made it very clear, and we had been making it very clear, by the way, for months in advance, that we couldn’t allow the process to move onto phase two and talk about trade until we had, at least, some basic certainties, so that we could say to Irish people, you know, that there is a floor here that we cannot fall below or fall through in the context of protecting core issues, like a peace process, that is very much linked to an invisible border, really, on the island of Ireland. And because of that strength of feeling, I think it became clear that this process was not going to move on, because we had very strong solidarity with our EU colleagues on that particular issue. And I think we agreed a very good document, that has provided a lot of reassurance, but some of that reassurance are fall back positions, they’re not what we want. They are what we will have to accept if we can’t get political agreement, in terms of what we want. So, what we want here is a negotiated trade arrangement and future relationship that allows the further border issue to be solved, that allows for the East-West trade, the €65 billion of trade, you know, 1.3 billion a week of trade between Ireland and Britain, to continue, uninhibited, without barriers. That allows the 100,000 store cattle from the West of Ireland to cross the border into Northern Ireland to be finished on Northern Ireland farms, that allows half a million lambs produced on Northern Ireland farms, to come south of the border to be slaughtered in Irish factories. This is the kind of normality that is the consequence of a peace process that’s working and that’s what we looking to protect. And that’s why we have to have that insurance or fall-back default position, if you like, but that is not something that we want to trigger early. That is simply an insurance mechanism that, if all else fails, we will have to insist it becomes a reality, and I think that’s understood pretty well in London.

Dr Robin Niblett CMG

Thank you very much, indeed, Tánaiste, you’ve navigated some really diverse questions. You’ve covered a lot and we’re only five minutes over, and hopefully I won’t get punished too much for letting that happen. You, I thought, mixed, extremely well, the balance of realism that’s going to be required for this to move forward effectively with a real sense of the deep, historical, personal connections that have got to make this work. We appreciate that you’ve taken the time with our members here at Chatham House for a third time and we hope to welcome you back again, and, hopefully, they’ll be under good, constructive circumstances. Thank you very much. Please stay in your seats, so we can let the Tánaiste out [applause]. Great stuff, thank you.