Iraq’s Political Landscape

Dr Lina Khatib

Good evening, everyone, and thank you so much for joining us tonight for this panel, which launches our Iraq Conference, which actually takes place tomorrow. All day here we’re going to have debates on Iraq in transition, the future of Iraq, issues that are very, very timely. And all this is part of the Iraq Initiative here at Chatham House, a project that we started a little while ago, that is picking up momentum quite significantly and as you can imagine, could not have been more timely, especially in light of the challenges that Iraq is facing today.

I just want to point out that my colleague, Dr Renad Mansour is the leader of the Iraq Initiative and we’re very fortunate to have a number of supporters for this Initiative, who we thank for their work, including, most prominently, Crescent Petroleum and Nahrein Network. Thank you so much for supporting this Initiative.

And I just want to introduce myself. My name is Lina Khatib. I’m the Head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme here at Chatham House, that houses the Iraq Initiative. Tonight’s event, as some of you may have seen, was meant to feature Former Prime Minister Haida al-Abadi of Iraq. However, unfortunately, his visa got delayed and he couldn’t join us tonight. However, we are extremely fortunate to have an illustrious panel here with us tonight. I honestly couldn’t think of a better line up, representing the breadth of the political landscape of Iraq to address the critical issues happening in the country today.

Tonight’s event, as you can see, is being livestreamed. It is on the record, so feel free to tweet as much as you like, but please keep your phones on silent. There are two hashtags that you can use. One is Chatham House Events, which is #CHEvents and the other one is #IraqInitiative. Feel free to tweet throughout, as I said, and I will start the discussion with questions to my guests and then open it up for questions from the audience.

So, to introduce this really illustrious panel, to my immediate left we’re fortunate to have Dr Laith Kubba, who is currently the Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister of Iraq. To his left we have Mr Dhiaa-a-Asadi, who is the political representative to Mr Muqtada-al-Sadr in Iraq and he’s also the Chairman of the Political Board of Al-Ahrar Bloc in Parliament. And last, but not least, we have His Excellency Karim Sinjari. Mr Sinjari is the Former Minister of Interior in the Kurdistan region of Iraq and currently Advisor to the President of the Kurdistan region.

For those of you in the audience who may not understand English, we have headsets [mother tongue]. The event is being simultaneously translated. Interestingly, I don’t see anyone in the audience using headsets, so you may not need them. Just to point out that Mr Sinjari will be speaking in Arabic, so some people might want to use their headsets for that. And also, I just wanted to say that afterwards, we have a reception upstairs, in our reception room that you will see just on your way up, and you’re all very welcome to join us for a drink after this discussion.

So, without further ado, of course, we’re holding tonight’s event as the situation in Iraq gets tenser and increasingly challenging, with protests that I’m sure a lot of you are following. I certainly have been following, all day on Twitter and the social media, the latest reports from Baghdad. Protests in the streets, people being actually shot at by the security forces, according to some reports, lots of casualties, hundreds, in fact, reportedly 100 today. So, I’d like to start with yourself, Dr Laith Kubba. I know it’s a very difficult situation for the Government. However, I would appreciate your take on what is actually happening with these protests, what do they mean?

Dr Laith Kubba

Thank you and let me first state the obvious is that my views are my views…

Dr Lina Khatib

Absolutely.

Dr Laith Kubba

…and as an Advisor to the Prime Minister, I can differ with his views, but it’s more appropriate, I think, to emphasise this point here. It’s unfortunate that the moment that Iraq had, over the last year, which showed those who visited Baghdad have noticed, clearly, the improvement in the security atmosphere and the activity taking place in the market. Shops are being open, people are getting their cash out the homes and you can see activity. So, there is, and you sense, real progress, of course. There is no Green Zone. Baghdadis can breathe, it stays ‘til two in the morning. All these are positive signs. But those who look closely at the scene realise that this might not be sustainable on two counts. Count one is that the budget is overstretched and you can buy your way out, you can pay everybody for a while, but then, there is a limit. You would reach a financial crisis and I think this has been very much on the table, in many Cabinet meetings. The second factor is although we have stability and we have, let’s say, return of some incidents by Daesh, it’s – it doesn’t really represent a real threat.

Let us not forget that the current Prime Minister was basically brought to power as a compromise to avoid a violent conflict that could have taken place after the election. The conditions in Iraq, when it comes to power, are not normal. We have about ten blocs, who have not only armed, let’s say, groups under various names, they have banks, they have TV stations, they have Members in Parliament and they have real power and, regrettably, with corruption, it – you’ll find the roots of many of those corrupt networks leading or merging with those blocs. So, we do have a real problem in the country and although the best thing we had is that the political process had consolidated and up until this moment, people referred to the ballot box, irrespective of what goes wrong in-between, but that’s a huge thing and so long as I think we can maintain that, that’s a big plus.

What we’re seeing currently is, Iraq has about 20 million young people under the age of 20. Those people are raised with no memory of Saddam Hussein, what went on before, all the political issues. They are not getting the services in schools and hospitals, or in the streets; they’re impatient. In fact, if anything, the current stability and progress that was made in Iraq in the last year has given them the opportunity for the first time, more or less, to demand and vent, be it graduates, be it other political groups. So, we’re seeing a dynamic. I think so long as it’s kept at check without violence, we’re okay, it’s expected. The challenge that the Prime Minister has, with limited time, he’s doing his best as a Politician to buy time, but his time is under pressure, because there are increasing demands. So, I will keep my eye on the violence, I’ll keep my eye on the budget in Iraq and the political process it seems, up until now, we’re okay with.

Dr Lina Khatib

Yes, I mean, it is refreshing, actually, to have seen that the Prime Minister has, at least on social media, from what I could see, expressed concern, but also, with also the President of Iraq, saying that people have the right to protest. So, this is very important that the Government is, basically, not taking a position of these protests should be cracked down on. However, the practice on the ground has been a bit difference, because we’ve seen violence happen, despite this. And this is leading some people, again, in – on social media, to question how weak or strong is the Iraqi Government, how capable is it of actually containing the situation? So, with all the good intentions, what’s at stake here is the strength of the Government.

Dr Laith Kubba

And the big picture, the biggest challenge facing Iraq, is whether it has a state, a strong state, a state that is based on citizenship, or it has a state within a state, or multiple states. This is the challenge, and currently the State of Iraq is weak, regrettably, I have to say. It’s been weakened since 2003, and it hasn’t put itself back. It was weak then, but it got weaker, and the challenge is how to rebuild a strong state in Iraq.

When people reference, for example, Iran’s influence, it’s actually a by-product of the weak state. It’s not the cause of the weak state. I think the biggest, let’s say, mistake or sin, call it what you like, that happened was to dismantle the State of Iraq, following 2003, and since then Iraq has been struggling in a tough region, with tough countries, tough populations, struggling to keep itself together as a state and as a Government that has state institutions.

Dr Lina Khatib

Thank you. I’m going to move to you, Mr al-Asadi, to ask, of course, we’re now a year away from the elections, in which, you know, the political leader you represent, Muqtada al-Sadr, won more seats than any other. I mean, his bloc won more seats than any other group in Parliament. But, of course, before that he had built his legitimacy party on having been one of the leaders of the protest movement. Right now we are not seeing much representation on the street for this other movement. I’m just interested, where does your political camp stand, in terms of the current protests?

Dhiaa al-Asadi

Well, thank you very much. I have to express my great pleasure for speaking to you tonight and my real sadness for the loss of souls in the streets and among the protestors and those who were wounded. Well, unfortunately, we have all diagnosed that the Government, the successive governments of Iraq, lacked certain prerequisites for being effective. I mean, they are described as ‘dysfunctional’ for so many reasons. And starting from 2012, the Sadrist Movement has started to follow a road towar – an approach towards reform and the reform that we sought is distributed among the different levels of representation in the Government. I mean, the different institutions, starting from the judiciary system, then the executive system, then the legislative system.

We tried to start with executive system when Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr asked, as the representative in the Government, to submit their resignation to the Prime Minister, at that time Dr Haider al-Abadi, and they did so, in order to give him the freedom to choose a good Cabinet, a Cabinet that is accountable. Because this election is really the – well, it deter – it depends on the choice of the Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister is free to choose his Cabinet, then he’s going to be held accountable if they fail. And that was they said the problem that no political party could agree with, because most of the political parties realised that their being in the Cabinet is one additional point of [inaudible – 12:53] to be added to their being represented in the couse – House of the Representatives.

So, the Sadrist Movement resorted to peaceful demonstrations in the street and they tried to empower the civic movements, in collaboration, of course, with the civic movement, with the Communist Party and with the secular parties and powers in Iraq. But then, we realised that there was also criticism to the Sadrist Movement, because it was part of the Government and this is a sort of paradox that can never be solved. We cannot be part of the Government and criticise the Government at the same time. People are asking us, “Why don’t you leave the Government, since you are not satisfied with the performance of the Government?” But leaving the Government it means that we are going to give the Government the full freedom to do all the mistakes that we were criticising, since the establishment of the Iraqi Government in post-2003.

Now, we cannot say that the Sadrist Movement is not represented in the street and people from the Sadrist Movement are not joining the protest movement. They are there. But the protest movement is not represented politically by the Sadrist. It is represented by Iraqi people and that was the answer of Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr to one of the questions raised to him, whether he’s going to support directly the protestors or not. He said, “All those protestors are Iraqis and they are calling for the basic services and they are calling for justice, social justice, equity and all of these values, so I should support them. But I cannot really support them directly, because people will say that there is a bloc representing you and the Government, why not you topple the Government, for example, or remove the Government?” It is a very intricate issue we cannot really solve. We cannot help being part of the Government, but at the same time trying to rectify, trying to correct what is going wrong.

Now we believe that – I mean, I was asked frequently, since 2016, “What kind of protests are there in the streets?” I said, “There are four trends.” If we take Basra, for example, and analyse the people who were protesting, there were four trends, or four motives, behind the peoples going into the streets. One of them is those who were calling for basic services, unemployment and all these basic and necessary human needs. The second one is those people are who are malcontent, who are angry with the Government, who think that they are not well represented, they were deceived by the political parties and the political parties assumed the power and claim that they represent them, but in fact, they represent just their benefits and their – so – their political gains.

The third one is the group of intelligentsia, or people who are the elite, if we – I mean, so to speak, those who think that this political system can never be cured, it can never be corrected, so the best thing to do is to remove this political system and establish a new one. Not necessarily by violence, but by pressing on the Government in order to change the system. And the fourth one is the group of observers who – and this group constitutes the majority of Iraqis, who are not sure whether these protests are led by agendas from inside or outside Iraq, or they are purely representing the needs or Iraqi people. Those people are still suspect about it. If we just follow-up the what is written in the social media, we will recognise that there are still people accusing those who break into the streets by following certain agendas, either by neighbouring countries or superpowers, like the United States or other countries. And there are other people who accuse those who do not break into the streets, by being cowards, by being unable to defend their rights.

So, we don’t have a movement that has crystallised recently or a movement that can we see, or say, that this movement 100% is the representative of the Iraqi people and all their demands. I think the movement of the protestors is still being crystallised, it is still being found and it will come to existence sooner or later, if the Government continues its performance and the performance that we just described as dysfunctional, unfortunately.

Dr Lina Khatib

Right, so, I mean, again, looking at the latest reports, I’m seeing that the protests have now spread beyond Baghdad. They have spread to Najaf, for example, and other places. What, in your view, I mean, you talked about the Government, of course, changing its performance, but we all know this takes time, however, immediately, what do you think should be done, in order to contain the violence, because it seems to be, as I said, spreading and growing?

Dhiaa al-Asadi

Well, I think most of the people recognise that there are certain indicators or signs that the Government is really serious about correcting the situation or correcting itself. One of them is to bring those corrupted people or those who are accused of corruption into accountability, sending them to court. Nothing has happened, unfortunately, since the first term of Mr al-Maliki. There were people, I mean, senior political leaders, who are accused of corruption, but none of them was sent to court, none of them was hold – held accountable in front of Iraqis. This is one of the – the second one, unfortunately, most of the Prime Ministers seem also not serious about having a group of proficient Advisors onboard. I mean, Advisors who are really – who can really make difference in economy, for example, and changing the economic philosophy of the country. Who are capable of solving educational problem, health problem, who are also capable of identifying or really, I mean, setting clearly the political system of Iraq.

We all know that the system of Iraq, the political system, is described as decentralised, as a federal system, but on the reality, there is no federalism, there is no federal government in Iraq. I mean, the local governments, in most of Iraqi parts, do not have their authorities that are supposed to have. They are unable to deliver the expected services, because they don’t have the – they don’t have enough authorities, they don’t have the legislations, and even if there are legislations, there is overlapping with the national government. I know that this is the case, even in most advanced democracies in the world, even in the countries that have been decentralised since maybe the 6^th or the 17^th Century, but the case in Iraq is different. People are -I mean, they are desperate to have services, they are desperate to have education and health, but they cannot see any change on the ground. They are not going to be satisfied with the Government.

So, there are certain signs that the Iraqi Government, the current Iraqi Government, concern to people in order to guarantee that there is change coming and they are going to make some amendments. Otherwise, I think this will accumulate into a social power and the social power, when it grows, nobody can anticipate or predict what will happen.

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay, thank you. Moving to yourself, your Excellency, we’ve just heard a critique of federalism in Iraq and, of course, this critique that we heard is about all of Iraq. I wonder, what’s the perspective from Kurdistan on this issue? If, you know, we’ve just heard from Mr al-Asadi that there’s no real federalism in Iraq, would, you know, would you share that perspective and is this part of the problem that we are seeing with the current Government in Iraq?

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue].

Dr Lina Khatib

Yeah, just…

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue – 20:44-24:04].

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay [mother tongue].

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue].

Dr Lina Khatib

[Mother tongue].

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue].

Dr Lina Khatib

[Mother tongue].

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue – 26:46-27:43].

Dr Laith Kubba

Could I just maybe one comment to underline something very important you referenced? From 2003, I would say, ‘til 2014/15, although the regime of Saddam Hussein was totally dismantled, but there was a real issue on whether the, let’s say, the major populations or masses in Iraq have agreed on how to run the country. So, regrettably, the phrases used, “The bloc of Shia,” as, “The bloc of the Sunnis,” “The bloc of the Kurds,” the three major blocs in the country. But I think from 2014 to 2018 it’s worth noting that something very real has changed in Iraq and then, the first one is there was a level of sectarianism very high and after what Daesh did in Mosul, really, the dynamic has changed in all the western provinces. So, today I think there is a foundation for building a national movement and the agenda has changed. There is no longer talk about the Shia-Sunni issue, apart from few Politicians who want to benefit from it. But the reality is, the eyes of the populations, mainly in the Arab population in Iraq, is sat on Iraq.

And the second most significant, I think, development that happened is, Kurdistan tried to have a referendum on independence and that was very much on the agenda. And that reached a dead end and I think in Kurdistan also, there is a change of heart, a reality that, like it or not, we have to work within Iraq. So, those two changes are fundamental. That’s the reason the protest we see in Iraq today is not about Shia or Sunni. It’s coming from Shia areas as much as from other areas. They’re demanding services, they’re demanding the return of a state and, of course, corruption is at the heart of it. And I regret to say that, I mean, we don’t want to – we’re on record, we can’t speak too much on direct political issues, but we do have a real problem with those who – political groups who are having their gripes over money, banks, power and rooted to corruption and it’s really a problem and no real answers to it. We need to strengthen a national movement, awareness. We need to mobilise all the marginalised groups that you reference, Doctor, we are – then we have a slight change in the political dynamic. My bet is under current political groups, Iraq cannot pull itself out of this quagmire.

Dr Lina Khatib

Well, basically…

Dhiaa al-Asadi

Can I – may I say…

Dr Lina Khatib

Yes, please…

Dhiaa al-Asadi

…something, please?

Dr Lina Khatib

…please.

Dhiaa al-Asadi

I think deepening the ethnosectarian differences among Iraqis has always been a political decision. Since 2003, most of the political leaders found that it would be very difficult to get people to rally behind them and elect them, without raising the sectarian or ethnic feelings. So, now, if we bargain on people’s awareness that these are – I mean, these sensitive issues are going to destroy the social matrix and they are not going to help anymore and if we also try to prove to the Politicians that they can no longer manipulate these differences, I think then we can hope that we will have a coherent society, a society that is capable of overcoming all of the glitches and difficulties that has been – have been facing. And then, moving towards development and performing the political process.

Dr Lina Khatib

So, what I’m hearing…

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue].

Dr Lina Khatib

Yes.

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue – 31:38].

Dr Lina Khatib

Hmmm hmm. So, what I’m hearing on a positive note is that the old ethnosectarian divisions are no longer the drivers of strife in Iraq. However, we have, it seems to me, a crucial issue with trust, a crucial issue with accountability and people perhaps feeling that the Government has not delivered, especially after the high hopes that probably were connected with the last parliamentary election. And this happens everywhere, frankly. Even here in the UK, you know, you have governments, you know, with – coming with certain promises and not necessarily delivering. And – but to me, the, kind of, bottom line is something that you said, which is that people want to feel that they are part of the political decision. I think this is a crucial issue, people need to be feeling that they are definitely part of the state in this way. It is also about citizenship, obviously, and this is not something that I think any government can resolve, you know, in a short matter of time. It requires fundamental changes in Iraq.

But meanwhile, of course, a lot of people might be worried that the strike that we are seeing today and the, kind of, lack of trust in the Iraqi State, might be exploited by elements such as remnants of ISIS, who might see in this kind of environment entry points for trying to cause more trouble in Iraq, which of course, unfortunately, would, you know, take us back into a cycle of violence. I’m hoping that does not happen, but I’m also hoping that the elite that seem to still be in power in Iraq today are able to also see that there is this, you know, looming danger that requires a fundamental shift. So, I’m – you know, let’s be cautiously optimistic.

I know a lot of you will have things to say about this, but I also want to give space to the audience to ask questions. Please introduce yourselves before you ask the question. Wait for the microphone, especially that the event is being livestreamed and also translated. And if you happen to be a Chatham House Member, please tell us what else you do in life. Don’t just say Chatham House Member. Okay, who would like to ask the first question? Yes, at the front, please. I have many questions.

Dr Jehan Baban

Dr Jehan Baban, the Founder and President of the Iraqi Environment and Health Society-UK. Thank you very much, very important talk and we welcome you here. The main causes for current crisis are lack of services and corruption on massive scales. Water is polluted, air is a high health risk for heart and respiratory condition and cancer. Yet, Iraq, as mentioned, is one of the richest country in the world.

Dr Lina Khatib

And your question…

Dr Jehan Baban

The Iraqi – I’m going for…

Dr Lina Khatib

…please, because…

Dr Jehan Baban

…the question right now.

Dr Lina Khatib

…we have very little time, yeah.

Dr Jehan Baban

Alright. The Iraqi Government should introduce tighter environmental regulations. I’m going for the question now. My question is that there are lack of coherent strategy and effective administrative and legal instrument to compact correction with two trends emerging. The first trend is to add more layers to manage corruption, such as the Supreme Anti-Corruption Council led by the Prime Minister.

Dr Lina Khatib

But that’s not a question, I’m very sorry.

Dr Jehan Baban

I have to…

Dr Lina Khatib

That’s a comment and…

Dr Jehan Baban

No, no, no, no.

Dr Lina Khatib

…we have…

Dr Jehan Baban

I have to…

Dr Lina Khatib

…20 minutes and lots of people want to ask questions.

Dr Jehan Baban

I’m going to ask them, which one they actually go for it? So, the second type…

Dr Lina Khatib

No, no, no, no. Okay, if you don’t mind, your question is, basically, I’m going to translate it as what’s the Government doing about environmental issues, right, in order to address…

Dr Jehan Baban

No, no, no, no.

Dr Lina Khatib

…citizens’ concerns?

Dr Jehan Baban

There are two trends. There are two and the second one is to abolish democracy structure by dissolving all General Inspectors first and by…

Dr Lina Khatib

This is too – okay.

Dr Jehan Baban

…that work to a specially appointed Judge. So, which one is it you prefer?

Dr Lina Khatib

Dr Kubba…

Dr Jehan Baban

You’re actually…

Dr Lina Khatib

…this – you’re the representative of the Government on the panel and this is very technical.

Dr Laith Kubba

I’m not the representative, but I would say I’m the closest to the Government, that is true. Okay, on the issue of the environment, unfortunately, we – the Minister of Health and Environment resigned, although his resignation is not accepted yet. I spent time with him. He is one of the best and most competent Ministers aware. But the question is not about a Minister, it’s a whole institution. The weakness in Iraq is so structural, it’s problematic. So, it takes leadership at multiple levels and it takes time. The challenge the Prime Minister has, he does not have much time. How he uses his time, of course it’s his judgment. He is building, let’s say, political capital, as time goes by. He’s trying to contain as many problems the country has as possible, and regrettably, the environment is not top of the agenda, only when it causes demonstrations in Basra it becomes top on the agenda.

On the issue of corruption, this is the real challenge. Again, corruption is so institutionalised in the country, it takes more than cosmetic changes or just forming committees. It actually requires a head on confrontation. It’ll come with very high political cost. Whether the Prime Minister is prepared to pay that high cost, I don’t know. He has to judge so many factors. But my assess – when I look and corruption is obvious in Iraq, it is institutionalised, regrettably, and it will not go away by just wishing it away. It requires a crackdown.

Let us also not forget, between two brackets, one of the causes of the spark, let’s say the spark that led to the latest demonstration, is to do with the reassignment of one of the Generals in the Iraqi Army. But this is the, let’s say, the straw that broke the camel’s back. It’s on top of many, many issues, but corruption is very, very high on the agenda.

Dr Lina Khatib

Thank you and I have to say also thank you, you’re a regular participant in our Iraqi events and you always raise the issue of the environment. And I know a lot of people used to dismiss that, until the protests in Basra started and people started to actually realise what a catastrophe the environmental crisis there is, so thank you. I have many hands, and yes, a gentleman in the, yeah, in the back, thanks. And please be brief, just to give others the opportunity.

Member

[Mother tongue – 39:37-40:40].

Dr Lina Khatib

Thank you [mother tongue].

Dhiaa al-Asadi

Well, answering the first question, thank you very much. I agree with you 100%, because we were approached by the UN group in Iraq, UN Office, and some of the political leaders, in order to involve us in a – in the process of national reconciliation, we actually refused to join this proposal. We said that, “There must be reconciliation, not on the political level.” I mean, political level or political leaders do not have any problem. They fight today and they become friends the other day. So, the best thing to do is to establish coherence among social components of the Iraqi society, to get the reconciliation or to get the matrix, the social matrix, repaired, because in post-2003 there were so many problems among the different components of Iraqi society.

Then we have to start with social reconciliation. That’s why we haven’t joined this proposal and we said that there is a longer process to go with and the political parties, the existing political parties now, may not succeed in the upcoming elections. They may leave sooner or later. We need to work with the people on the level of social level, on a social level rather than on the political level. I mean, that’s why I agree with you that it should start with the social level, not with the political level.

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay, Karim?

Dr Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue – 42:11].

Member

[Mother tongue].

Dr Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue].

Dr Lina Khatib

[Mother tongue].

Dr Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue].

Dr Lina Khatib

[Mother tongue].

Dr Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue – 43:13-43:52].

Member

[Mother tongue].

Dr Lina Khatib

[Mother tongue].

Dr Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue].

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay.

Dr Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue – 44:01-44:38].

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay, [mother tongue]. I’m going to – I know there’s many hands. I want to use my Chair’s prerogative and ask about the elephant in the room before we move on, because I think a lot of what you’re saying is leading me to think about this, which is the role of regional and external powers, especially in the current climate. Because it seems to me, unfortunately, the kind of negative, kind of, vibe that I’m getting is the sense of not complete lack of ownership of the Iraqi file by different Iraqi entities, including the leaders. Which leads me to ask about the role of Iran, especially the standoff with the United States, with Iraq finding itself in the middle, sometimes being asked to mediate, with Saudi Arabia at one point trying to reach out to certain political leaders in Iran, then similar leaders, you know, kind of, trying to also not be in Iran’s, kind of – you know, on the hit list, so to speak. So, it’s a very delicate situation and Iraq is finding itself in the middle of this storm. So, you mentioned this, Dr Kubba, at the beginning, that the weakness of Iraq is what, in a way, brought Iran into the fold, rather than the other way round. So, we’re not saying Iraq is completely powerless in this. So, what do to about this situation and where are we heading?

Dr Laith Kubba

Can I…?

Dr Lina Khatib

Yes.

Dr Laith Kubba

Let’s just zoom out for ten years and have a look, ten/15 years. Pre-2003 the problem has been in the region that Iraq was too strong under Saddam Hussein. It’s threatening its neighbours, it had a war with Iran, it invaded Kuwait, it had whatever it – in the – in Kurdistan, so it was a big, big problem and a big worry. So, everybody gathered to say, not only remove Saddam Hussein as a cause, but Iraq needs to be scaled down a bit, regrettably. And I say it because from an Iraqi point of view, I make a clear distinction between a bad ruler, Saddam Hussein, and a strong state, which everybody wants.

So, the dismantling and the scaling down of Iraq, through some articles in the constitution, as well as through the structural institution, had left Iraq exposed. Iraq today does not govern totally its borders, its land and its – even its budget. Of course, of course, we have a Government in place, but we all know, I mean, the big elephant in the room is that the Government of Iraq is under influences. Historically, it has always been under influences, but in the 21^st Century we expect we’re a sovereign state, as a sovereign state it has full control over its borders and over its affairs. Of course, if it is too weak and cannot control all the entries, then we have a problem and the strategy is not to blame neighbours. I think the strategy, the counter strategy should be Iraq must rebuild its state institutions and if they are friends of Iraq, they ought to help Iraq in that respect.

And to me, the measuring scale here is that any country that helps build the State of Iraq is their friend, any country that weakens the State of Iraq is an enemy of the State of Iraq and we need to rebuild the State or Iraq, that’s what we should do.

Dr Lina Khatib

The issue, though, is that none of the regional or external actors are in either category 100%, as far as I can see, because on – sometimes there are well meaning things that may, you know, be given to Iraq by an external entity that end up, you know, not necessarily achieving their objectives, but opening the door to other problems. So, Mr al-Asadi, if you don’t mind, what do you think Iraq should do vis-à-vis the United States and Iran? Because, obviously, it needs to have good relations with both, for obvious reasons, however, it’s now, kind of, stuck in the middle.

Dhiaa al-Asadi

Well, I think we all know that the Sadrist Movement has expressed its position as to the American occupation of Iraq in post-2003. We were opposing Saddam’s regime in the 1990s. We wanted Saddam regime to be removed, but not the way the Americans did. So, I mean, by the very definition, the Americans were occupiers of Iraq and we stood against the occupiers. We believe that the United States gave all the justifications, all the reasons that Iran wanted, in order to interfere in the Iraqi business. Now, Iran said that, “The Americans are here in order to change the Iranian regime, so why not we fight for our own regime?” The extremists in the Arab land, including those who come from the Gulf States and elsewhere, they say Iraq is an occupied country, so we have to go and free Iraq from the United States. And, ironically, the very countries where – the place where, from the Americans came to Iraq and they say we have to go to Iraq, in order to oust the Americans out from Iraq.

Now we believe that neither the American policies in Iraq, nor the Iranian policies, are helping the Iraqi people. In order to get a sovereign Iraq and a stable Iraq, we have to cut all the intervention in the Iraqi business and we have to establish balanced relationships between Iraq and its neighbours, without this balanced relationship, because Turkey would like to interfere in Iraq. It has all the reasons and, including the PKK and other reasons, the Turkmen in Iraq, it will say that we would like to protect its own, the Turkeman in Iraq and their rights. The Arab countries will say, “Look, the Sunnis are a minority now in Iraq and they are going to be hegemonized, they are going to be suppressed by the Shia, so we need to protect them.” Iran would say that, “The Shia regime is under threat, it is vulnerable, so we have to protect it.” And all these justifications are not helping the successive Iraqi governments to keep Iraq intact of any intervention.

So, I mean, without changing the American international policies in the Middle East, without changing the Iranian international relations or foreign relations in the Middle East, Iraq is not going to be stable and this is clear to everybody, I think.

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay, so, we’re talking about balance. So, all the outreach that we’re seeing by different Politicians is about balance, rather than about seeking patronage, okay? Back to the audience, many hands, yes, sir? [Pause] [mother tongue].

Omar Mohammad

Thank you, Lina. I have a question to…

Dr Lina Khatib

Introduce yourself, if you don’t mind.

Omar Mohammad

Omar Mohammad, a Historian from Mosul. I will speak in Arabic to Mr Sinjari. [Mother tongue – 51:28-52:02].

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue – 52:04- 52:25].

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay, other questions? I’m trying to think who was first, yes, sir?

Andrew England

Andrew England from the Financial Times. Dr Kubba, could you – you mentioned General Saadi and his removal, as – from counter-intelligence, to – or counter-terrorism to the Defence Ministry and you said it was a straw that broke the camel’s back. Why did it happen and why should that be a catalyst? And you also mentioned the weakness of the political system, because of the political system, so, how much control, how much power does the Prime Minister actually have, in terms of the day-to-day running of the Government and how it deals with the situations like we see now in Iraq, with the protests? Thank you.

Dr Laith Kubba

On this second point, I mean, the – as much as I can see, I don’t – I attend a Cabinet meeting once a week and I watch things from a distance, not that close, but the Prime Minister is really a skilled Politician, and it’s a very tough position when you’re trying to please everybody. You’re trying to please Iran and America at the same time. You’re trying to please the, let’s say, Turkey and the regional government in Kurdistan. There are many, many factors that the Prime Minister needs to balance, so it’s very tough.

But as a general picture, I can say the toughest one has been the one to do with the al-Hashd, the popular mobilising forces and the – containing them by, first, making them part of the national forces in Iraq and then by trying to merge them with the Ministry of Defence. This is a very tough call, because the Hashd, their regular forces they haven’t been trained or disciplined. Some of them have loyalties outside Iraq, I mean, some, very small fraction, not the majority, and it’s a tough one. Some of them are known to have very close associations with Iran and so, they have to be integrated. So, in the midst of that and there were other – couple of other incidents, there were some counterstatements coming from some, let’s say, Generals at the Hashd, that contradicted the policy of the Government and there hasn’t been clarification about it, in the midst of that atmosphere the assignment, or reassignment of General Abdul-Wahab al-Saadi came. So, I think there is a lot of apprehension why is it happening? Is that a shift in Officers? Who’s controlling what? So, that added to the charged atmosphere that existed. That’s an explanation that I can give from just being an observer.

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay, thank you. Yes, please, there, yeah?

Ali Molaei

Thank you. Ali Molaei from the [inaudible – 55:40] Centre. I’d like to ask a question about job creation. So, it’s clear that, you knowing, rising youth unemployment is a big factor amongst disaffected youth who are joining the protest movement. The Prime Minister recently announced plans to absorb more graduates into the public sector and the previous Prime Minister also had a similar approach to the Basra protests. The question is, you know, how realistic is it for the Government to continue to grow the public sector to absorb tens of thousands of young people, and particularly given the budgetary constraints? Thank you.

Dr Lina Khatib

Thank you. I think it’s another one for you.

Dhiaa al-Asadi

There has been initiatives that did not work. There was about $4 billion, which was supposed to go out in small loans. They couldn’t process them, because there was no capacity, not only at the banks, but at the recipient end. Nobody was showing young people how to start up anything, so this didn’t work. Recently, the Prime Minister initiated another scheme by which they’re distributing small pieces of land with Government guaranteed loan to start reconstruction. People – reconstruction is always a good way to kickstart employment. There has been a success when it came to agriculture. This year, when the Government gave a guarantee to buy all the products and actually, Iraq, for the first time, had surplus in its agricultural products, in wheat. So, all these are taking place, but the gap is growing bigger and the Government is not catching up.

There are other schemes. I happen to be closely supervising one of them. There are other schemes, but again, the politics of it, can it be done in time to please those young graduates and others? I don’t know. There is – it’s pointless to try to give public employment, just the Government is so overloaded, they need something more fundamental. That’s the reason I referenced, I said the challenge on the budget is really, it’s unsustainable. The – some interventions are needed there.

Dr Lina Khatib

Okay, yes?

Karim Sinjari

[Mother tongue – 58:02-58:22].

Dr Lina Khatib

Hmmm hmm. Thank you so much and actually, it’s 7:00pm. I know a lot of you had questions. However, we have our reception upstairs, so I hope you can take advantage of that to have discussions that we were not able to cover in this hour. Of course…

Member

And the conference tomorrow.

Dr Lina Khatib

Yes, absolutely and do come to the conference tomorrow. We have more very rich discussions, and for now just please join me in thanking our high level guests for this very frank discussion. Thank you [applause].