Nicolas Lawley
Okay, thank you everyone for coming. This is a Members’ Question Time, one of our events really focused at members specifically, and today we are focusing on “Gen Z Protests and the Demographic Time Bomb” we are facing – well, “Facing Governments,” sorry. And my name is Nicolas Lawley. I am Bronwen Maddox, our Director’s, Special Advisor, and I am joined today by Dr Nayana Prakash, who is a Research Fellow here at the International Security Programme at Chatham House. Dr Prakash is not just that, but she’s also an Associate Editor of the Journal of Cyber Policy. She holds a PhD from the Oxford Internet Institute, where her research focused on digital platforms in India and creative uses of technology in the region.
Nayana’s primary expertise is in the technology governance in India and the geopolitics of technology in the Global South. She has written and researched widely on issues relating to dis and misinformation, narrative manipulation and social media, AI in the workplace, cybersecurity, the list goes on. She’s very talented, we’re very privileged to have her here, and you have been interviewed widely, from BBC, Channel 4, you’ve been on the media a lot, talking specifically about these Gen Z protests that we’ve seen across the world. Most recently, of course, if you’ve kept up with the news, this morning in Bulgaria, as well, has now joined the list. So, thanks for them for considering this event and getting things going and making it more – even more relevant than were before. So, without further ado, Dr Prakash, please tell us a bit…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Thanks.
Nicolas Lawley
…about what’s going on.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Thanks, Nick, and thanks for attending, and to your online attendees, as well. So, as Nick says, you know, I was going to start this by saying these pro – these Gen Z protests have been happening from disparate places in the Global South, but obviously we’ve seen today that Bulgaria has joined that list, as well, showing how the protests are moving beyond the Global South into new parts of the world.
The 2024 protests in Bangladesh, the July Revolutions, were often seen as the beginning of these, kind of, successful Gen Z protests, though we’ve seen a wave from other countries too. So, from Nepal to Morocco to the Philippines to Indonesia to Peru, the protests cover a really wide geographic range. You’ll notice that, as I say, all these countries are in the Global South, and while specific triggers may be different from country to country, they are mostly about government corruption, a lack of government funding, social inequality and rising unemployment.
So, maybe let’s look at the protests in a little bit more detail. So, we’ll start with Nepal. So, on the 8th of September, Gen Z took to the streets to protest government corruption, triggered also by the government blocking over 25 commonly used social media apps in the country. And alongside what we may think of as political or politicised apps, like, X or Instagram, the government also blocked apps like Pinterest and LinkedIn. So, young people were incensed by this, but the protests aren’t really about social media, even though that’s, I think, what media sources themselves, sort of, jumped on straightaway. The protests were inflamed by Nepal’s, sort of, two-tiered society, and one of the hashtags that was trending around the time of these protests was #NepoKids, which relates to the children of elites in Nepal having more money, more opportunities, than a lot of people in society.
And, you know, so Nepalese took the streets, they co-ordinated on Discord, which many people here might recognise as a app that’s typically used by gamers, though a lot of other people use it, as well. And though the protests were organised as a peaceful rally, police responded with live ammunition, with rubber bullets, and there were many, many victims and ensuing violence. By 9th September, the former Prime Minister had fled Kathmandu, and by the 11th of September, Discord users had elected an interim leader on the servers, who will remain in post until elections are held in Nepal.
The Nepal protest was interesting because even though it had these specific trigger points in the country, it paid tribute to these other protests, specifically the Indonesian protest, which used the One Piece pirate flag as a symbol. One Piece, if you didn’t know – you don’t know what it was, and that’s completely fine, I also did not know what it was, is an anime show where I believe the, kind of, enemy in that show is the government, but I don’t want to talk too much about it, ‘cause I don’t – haven’t seen the show myself. And shortly after these protests, as you mentioned, Nick, we’ve seen a wave of Gen Z protests in – you know, from Peru to Morocco to Madagascar, and as these protests continue, I think we can see that there are a few trends that unite them, as different as these countries are, and a few things that they have in common.
So, you mentioned social media. Obviously, that’s something I’m very interested in. Social media isn’t, to be clear, the primary reason for these protests, but – and we mustn’t conflate its usage with the idea that social media is causing the – this protest across the world, but it does, kind of, speak of – to the fact that young people now are digitally connected to a global network in a way that hasn’t really happened before. You know, we saw with Arab Spring that a lot of these protests were digitally mediated, that people used Twitter and Facebook, but now the protests are happening on a larger scale to countries that don’t have a common language, to countries that don’t have, you know, a common, kind of, ethnicity or national identity, even. And the fact that these platforms, like TikTok or Instagram, are video-first or image-first, makes it a lot easier for people to see what’s happening in other parts of the world, even if they don’t speak, you know, the same language.
And, of course, it means that people can communicate really quickly. I mean, social media may not be the reason these protests are happening, but it is definitely contributing to the speed of organisation of these protests. You know, when we think back to protests, like 1963, the March on Washington, something like that, it took months and months of co-ordination to have a protest that size, and now we’ve seen that in a matter of hours or in a matter of days, we have massive scale protests that can bring governments to their knees.
And obviously we’ve seen that, you know, it’s used as a form of citizen journalism as well. It’s how we’re hearing from these countries, especially when establishment media outlets perhaps don’t have the facilities or the ability to be out on the streets and sharing the stories of young people. We can also say, I think, that it matters a lot to Politicians, right, to be TikTok savvy, to be aware of social media trends, and the idea that governments ignore these, kind of, young people, perhaps at their peril.
I think another key trend is this idea of, you know, we’re living through what feels like an era of dissent. So, primarily these protests are economically motivated. Young people are challenging years of inadequate government funding, high unemployment rates, high levels of corruption, as well, which has been something that’s been flagged across a number of protests. And I think a formerly quite reverential attitude, perhaps a frightened attitude towards the political elite or authority, is being replaced, I think, by anger. And the dissent, you know, isn’t limited just to young people, though obviously young people are a big factor in these protests.
You know, we live in the UK, there have been protests all over the West, all over the world, about what’s happening in Gaza. There have been encampments, there have been protests across the last ten years, there have been Black Lives Matter protests, there have been fascist marches, which may not, kind of, occupy the same space, but they are, you know, a form of protest, as well. There have been, kind of, March for Our Lives protests, there have been Occupy Wall Street protests. You know, we live in an era where, like, protesting has become very, very normal.
And I think, finally, this key trend, I guess, is just how crucial young people are, but especially in these countries that I’ve highlighted. Most of these countries have very young population compared to ageing populations in the West. So, the median age of Madagascar is 19, the median age of Nepal is about 25, I think comparatively in the UK, the median age is about 40. Young people make up a huge chunk of these countries, but they’ve been underserved, perhaps, by their governments thus far, and that’s why these protests have so much strength behind them and so much power.
And I think maybe the question for us today a little bit is what happens next? You know, will these countries be able to make changes that’ll satisfy a growing and unhappy population? Will these changes come about fast enough for their citizens to be satisfied? Will these protests be co-opted by larger players? Which I think is certainly a concern for some of these countries and actors seeking political wins. And, also, I think, how do we define success or, like, lasting change in these regions? Because we’ve seen – you know, I’ve mentioned all these different protests, some of them on a national scale, some of them not national, but all these protests have had wins and losses and we can look at them and say, “This was successful, this wasn’t successful.” But what sort of timescale are we really looking at for those successes, and how do we quantify that success?
So, I’ll leave it at that and looking forward to hearing more from you.
Nicolas Lawley
Thank you. Just a quick reminder that this event, of course, is on the record and is being recorded. Please also feel free to tweet using the hashtag, #CH_Events, and I just remembered because of the old social media that I should have flagged that earlier. And there will be questions from everyone in the crowd and all of those joining us online, as well, but I have the privilege of asking the first few questions, so if you’ll bear with me.
A lot of thoughts provoked there from your, sort of, quick, sort of, coverage of what is a real spread of issues across the countries, and I was real – very interested in that comparison that you made between the Arab Spring…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm.
Nicolas Lawley
…which I think is what automatically comes to mind, and what we’re seeing today. And specifically, I think you were pulling out there that the – about the uses of Twitter versus TikTok…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm.
Nicolas Lawley
…and the way that social media has moved on in that time. Would you mind expanding a bit further on that and how that’s – how – what the differences are of…?
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah, I think, you know, a lot of these, kind of, apps, like, Twitter or Facebook, are very useful when you’re communicating, as I said, via a shared language and you’re, kind of, trying to communicate immediately with people who have a similar context. I think, you know, we’ve seen the rise of video-first or image-first apps in the last decade, so that’s Instagram, that’s TikTok, and also perhaps the decline of formerly really massive platforms, like Twitter, which is obviously now X, which a lot of people have left and, you know, it doesn’t have quite the same weight that it did anymore.
So, in that time, I think one thing that shifted is that we’re able to see insights from across the world very, very quickly using these platforms. They’re video-first, which means that it doesn’t really matter if you don’t speak the language of these other countries, and in fact, you know, you’re just arrested by these visuals, perhaps, of protest. And I think that shift is really significant for things like, kind of, large-scale movements, because there’s no immediate barrier. I mean, obviously, you have to have these apps in the first place, and it’s interesting that in Nepal, a lot of apps were banned, but TikTok and Discord were actually two of the only apps that were used – or, were, like, still available.
I think, you know, I don’t want to make this too much about the specific social media apps, in the sense that I do think that protesters and people in these situations use whatever platforms or tools they have to do these protests. You know, if – it was TikTok because TikTok was available. If TikTok wasn’t available, it’d be something else. It was Discord, because Discord was available. But it’s also interesting to me that these are platforms that have a reputation of being, kind of, Gen Z platforms, and that a lot of older people in these countries didn’t necessarily know what Discord was or didn’t know how to use Discord themselves. And I think Gen Z are using that to, kind of, get their own points across and use platforms that their parents perhaps, or their parents’ generation, aren’t familiar with.
Nicolas Lawley
We’ve spoken a bit about Discord and in your introduction, you mentioned the use of it to elect.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm.
Nicolas Lawley
Can you expand a bit about that, because that seems quite a shocking thing to hear?
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah, I think definitely from a UK perspective, but who knows with digital ID what we’ll be using. So, on the 11th of September, after the Prime Minister fled the country, people in Nepal used Discord servers to discuss who they thought should take over as the interim Prime Minister ‘til full elections can be held, which I believe is going to be in March. So, the Discord server functioned as a, sort of, a space where people who were involved in these protests and involved in these servers could discuss with each other and could talk about, you know, how this would work.
And obviously, as you said, it’s, kind of, a mind-boggling idea, not least because what happens over the course of months and months and years and years, in most places happened over the course of hours, I think that necessity, sort of, drove people to this, as well, and I think it’s also what happens when there’s a lack of faith in, you know, government institutions. Perhaps people put their faith in institutions, like, social media platforms. There’s been, perhaps, from – the Indian media reported that a lot of the people who used these servers on Discord weren’t actually from Nepal, they were from other countries, and they were trying to influence these – you know, this, kind of, vote in these elections. And that is significant, and I think it’s something that we might see a little bit more of as these elections continue, and perhaps if they impact places that are of great geopolitical significance to their neighbours. I can’t comment on that specifically, but I think it’s an interesting trend, the idea of the trust in social media versus a complete erosion of trust, I think, in established governments.
Nicolas Lawley
That’s very interesting, and just to give you some credit, you know, you’re not an expert on any one of these specific countries. We do have a webinar on Thursday looking at the Gen Z protests in North Africa, so please register your interest, so all the details are on the Chatham House website. But what are the sort of things that we could link between these protests? ‘Cause they are truly, I mean, until this morning, Global South, but we were looking at many different continents, different spreads. What does link them? And I see the – that it – that the link is that we can get it across with the visual side of things is what you’re saying…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm.
Nicolas Lawley
…TikTok and the – is it a pirate from One Piece that you were saying in the anime show? I think that has to be the first reference of anime on this stage before.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah.
Nicolas Lawley
So, I get that, but what is – you said it’s not so much social media, it’s something else that’s joining all of these things together, is it demographics? Is it youth unemployment? What is linking it all?
Dr Nayana Prakash
I think it’s difficult because the answer is actually really frustratingly vast, isn’t it? The answer is something like unhappiness, inequality, a lack of government funding, a lack of government resources. Governments, you know, not putting enough stock into young people, and not – you know, old regimes that have been in power for perhaps decades, that is, you know, a problem that I think is, kind of – that we’re seeing a trend across a few of these different countries, as well. But that – the reason that’s a frustrating answer is because that applies to so many countries…
Nicolas Lawley
Yeah.
Dr Nayana Prakash
…across the world, right? So, many young people across so many countries, and not just young people, are frustrated with their governments. They’re frustrated with the lack of government funding; they’ve suffered years of austerity. I think, you know, there are a few quite unique triggers in these countries, and what I find fascinating is they’re both extremely culturally specific triggers. So, for example, in Peru, I believe, the protests were triggered by a new pension law that was going to raise the amount – or that people had to contribute to a pension by a certain age. You know, that’s – that is specific to Peru, but at the same time, it reflects perhaps a growing dissent and a growing, kind of, anger with the government for enforcing policies that young people don’t believe in. And so, it is both that combination of, like, specific country events with being able to see protests happening in other parts of the world.
I think we should also mention that these protests that are happening tend to be in quite small states.
Nicolas Lawley
Hmmm.
Dr Nayana Prakash
You know, we’ve seen protests, for example, in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. We have not seen the exact same kind of level of protest in India, which is the obvious, kind of, neighbour to these countries. So, that’s perhaps a factor, as well.
Nicolas Lawley
The – you’ve headed off my next question quite well there by asking, you know, who should be – or who – which government should be feeling a bit uncomfortable? And I guess the answer is a lot of coun – but we don’t know…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah.
Nicolas Lawley
…until it gets going, but one that did strike me is youth unemployment nearing 20% in China.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah, well, China’s got a lot of things going on that may prete – prevent protests of this scale, right? I think, you know, we’ve – I don’t like the idea necessarily of being – trying to point at a map and say where protests are going to happen next. I don’t think it’s possible. I think the Bulgaria protests today show how we would have been wrong to try and suggest that these protests are only happening in the Global South. Things like youth unemployment, things like old regimes, things like small states are able to mobilise, people can mobilise very quickly. You know, a – you know, I mean, people – like, these are all, kind of, things that apply to a lot of different countries, and I think we’d be remiss to talk about it and not identify the fact that many of these conditions are also true in obviously, the UK, as well, right, and the West.
I don’t think there’s going to be a Gen Z protest on this scale in the UK, but I could be wrong, and I think that what this should signal is that a lot of these countries have similar conditions to Western counterparts or to their neighbours. I don’t think countries should write themselves off as potentially having protests on this scale, and I think that what is interesting to me is how governments perhaps try to, sort of, deal with it. Do they clamp down even further? Do they ban more apps? Do they make it even more difficult for young people to meet, do they – or do they, kind of, open up, do they want to hear from young people? Do they want young people to shape their policies? I think that’s what’s interesting, and I think that might shape the next wave of protests, and I think – I will say that I think protests – these Gen Z protests, they will continue, they’re inevitable. I don’t think they’re going anywhere.
Nicolas Lawley
You keep heading off my next question.
Dr Nayana Prakash
I just saw you strike something on your…
Nicolas Lawley
Yeah.
Dr Nayana Prakash
…piece of paper.
Nicolas Lawley
One final one from me before we go out to the audience. In your intro, you used the phrase “era of dissent.”
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah.
Nicolas Lawley
Can you expand on that?
Dr Nayana Prakash
Well, I think when I talked about it – I mean, just now as we talk about it, when I’ve talked about it also to some of the other media outlets that you mentioned, you know, a lot of people have pointed out that, “Well, protest isn’t new, right?” Like, a lot of people say, “Well, what makes these protests different?” If we’ve always had protests, you know, we can even look further back and we can say there were anti-war protests about Vietnam, or we can talk about, you know, anti-war protests for quite a long time. We can talk about Occupy Wall Street, we can talk about, you know, all these significant protests that, to my mind, have shaped the last decade of our lives, of go – of the lives of governments around the world, both in the Global North and in the Global South.
So, what makes these different? And I think, well, they’re different partly because we’re here and we’re talking about them and I don’t really think – you know, I’m interested to see that there’s so much media coverage on countries that we don’t really hear a lot about in mainstream Western media, right? Like, we don’t necessarily see Madagascar on, kind of, front page news, and we don’t see Madagascar in connection with countries like Peru or, like, Bulgaria now, I suppose, so that’s significant.
But it is also that these young people have grown in – have grown up in an age of protest, and also in an age of, you know, not trusting their governments, in an age where it feels like governments are working against them rather than for them. And the young people who protest today and who protest in – and have been part of these protests have been shaped by this last decade just as much as their governments have. They’ve been shaped by seeing people take to the streets, by seeing perhaps the violent responses of governments or police against these protesters. And if it’s weighing in our minds, it will be weighing in the minds of these protesters, as well, and they will either take inspiration or perhaps warnings from those protests that have come before, as well.
Nicolas Lawley
There’s a fantastic question here online that’s come in. “Gen Z activists across Asia are watching one another, adapting tactics and narratives across borders in almost real-time. Do you see a risk of a, sort of, learning race,” I guess an arms race, of – where you have young protesters versus regimes rapidly trying to out-fox each other in terms of tech? “What would – what does that look like for internet freedom, the norms, and so on, and policing protests ag – around the world?”
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah, I think that definitely makes the assumption that young people and their governments are at loggerheads with each other, are at odds with each other. That doesn’t have to be the case, right? These two – these don’t have to be two enemy entities. I think that, you know, it’s not exactly that protesters are using, kind of, high-tech methods. They’re using existing platforms that we perhaps use every day. They’re not – it’s not a, kind of, growing, like, complexity or sophistication. It’s just using things for not – but not for the purpose that they were perhaps designed for.
I think, as I mentioned, we do see that there are, kind of, two – there are ways that governments could deal with this and respond in a way that clamps down on existing freedoms, right? It would be – you know, one response that governments could choose is to ban all apps or to cut off internet. We’ve seen internet shutdowns is – that are also a growing trend, unfortunately, as well. That’s certainly a possibility, but I mean, I – as I mentioned, I think people will always use whatever tools are available to them. You know, if you cut off – it’s like this, kind of, many-headed hydra effect. If you cut off one app and a bunch of other ones will sprout up in its place, because protest is not new. Protest is, you know, eternal, it’s been around for a long time. People will find new ways of doing this. So, I think in this case, yes, I think the government can respond violently, it can respond in a way that is authoritarian, but it can’t necessarily stem the existing problem of dissent or, like, general, kind of, unhappiness with the government.
Nicolas Lawley
Another question that’s just come in online from Tim. “Do we know any direct links between the protesters in the countries where the protests have taken place?” You know, are protesters in Nepal talking to protesters in Madagascar? Are they sharing tactics? I mean, we’ve said it’s a bit visual…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm hmm.
Nicolas Lawley
…you know, are there any direct conversations that you’re aware of, or anything like that?
Dr Nayana Prakash
Well, basically, I know that in, I think, Morocco, there is a Discord server that came up as a result of the Discord servers that we – so clearly Discord is now the chosen app in Morocco as well, and it, kind of, pays tribute to the popularity and the efficacy of that app in Nepal. So, in Morocco, they set up a Discord server called ‘GenZ212,’ which is, I think, the area code for the region. So, I think, you know, it’s possible that protesters on – from these different servers are speaking to each other and are communicating and are, you know, able to share advice.
But I think it’s also important that these protests are very regionally specific, as well, and that the issues that people – that protesters have with their police or their governments or law enforcement in their specific countries isn’t necessarily going to be the same. So, you know, in Nepal, protesters use the Discord server to, like, say things like, “Okay, we know that they have these weapons,” or, like, “This is how you deal with tear gas,” or, like, these, kind of, tips, which are, kind of, broadly useful across protests, as well.
I will say that – you know, I talked about other protests that are, kind of, sh – that have shaped our ex – you know, our ideas of the world in the last decade or so, and I mentioned things like the Black Lives Matter protests, which were pretty global. And I think around that time, a lot of, kind of, infographics came out about how to deal with police violence, how to conceal your identity from the police, how to respond if a – if you’re stopped by the police. I think these, kind of, ideas are a lot more publicly available to people than they used to be because of some of the apps I’ve mentioned, but also other platforms, as well. And I think young people today have a much better sense of, you know, how to respond, I think, because of this publicly available information, when they’re hit with police questions or police violence.
Nicolas Lawley
Wonderful. Let’s – shall we have some questions here from the floor? All of you at once. Can we have the lady in the second row, please? And then we’ll come to you next, I promise.
Dr Marion Messmer
Thank you so much. Marion Messmer, Chatham House. I wanted to ask about the, sort of, cultural specificity of protests that we’ve seen in the past and whether you think that there’s a difference now. Because if you think back to, sort of, traditional protest norms, or how protests used to unfold, they were often quite informed by the political context in that country and so on. But as you mentioned earlier, a lot of these grievances essentially seem to connect, you know, a generation or perhaps younger generations across countries. Do you think there’s something here about perhaps internet culture connecting these protesters more widely, or do we still see very different cultural contexts in all of these protests?
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm hmm, that’s – yeah, do you want to…?
Nicolas Lawley
No, take it one at a time.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Great. Thank you very much. That’s a great question, thanks, Marion. I think internet culture does, you know, shape these protests and as I say, facilitates how people are communicating with each other and people’s ability to see how protests are organised and can be organised very quickly. But I don’t think – but as I say, the root cause of these protests has been quite specific, I think, to specific grievances. You know, with Bangladesh last year, the protests – the initial protests were about jobs and job reservations for government roles. So, that’s still a very informed, culturally specific, response to what’s happening in Bangladesh and it’s not a response to, you know, wider, kind of, issues across other countries.
I think that’s the same for Peru, that’s the same for Madagascar, that’s the same – you know, people are still very, kind of, specifically informed on what’s happening in their country, and also, I think quite culturally and specifically aware.
Nicolas Lawley
Hmmm.
Dr Nayana Prakash
I think sometimes there’s this, sort of, grievance about Gen Z, I think there are a lot of – and, you know, the Gen Z protest term was initially used in a derogatory sense, I think, by a lot of media outlets, but young people have, sort of, claimed it as a badge of pride to organise these protests and to show pride, I think, in being young people who are able to respond to the government in this way. So, yes, internet culture is a facilitator, but I don’t think it’s the key driver of these protests.
Nicolas Lawley
Thank you. Can we go to the lady in the second to back row?
Member
Thank you. You touched on the success, or how do we judge the success of these protests? Interesting to hear your views on that, and one nature of social media is that extremist views tend to get more attention and spread faster than more, kind of, balanced views. So, to what extent are these protests driven by more extremist views, or – and to what extent are they actually legitimate concerns that the young people are raising?
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah, I mean, a lot of this will be shaped, I think, by your opinion to protests more widely, and some of the issues these countries are facing. I would largely say that maybe you might have a different opinion about how these protests were handled, you know, and there are certainly actions that have taken place across these countries where people – individual people might have disagreements with them. But I think the protests themselves respond to issues that have very real effects on young people and whether or not protest is the best way to handle that – I mean, clearly it has been, kind of, effective because many of these governments have resigned and been replaced by new governments. And even if we can’t predict what these new governments will do, it’s the hopefulness of that, and I think also the power that it shows that young people have.
So, I think it’s both the idea that young people, you know, maybe don’t feel like existing for a are the place to air their grievances, and they don’t feel like the democratic system is working for them, and therefore they feel like protest is their only option. These things just, kind of, bubble up, right? And also, the fact that – proving to governments that – to not be complacent, and that even if a government has been in power for a long time, doesn’t mean that’s going to continue in the future. You know, there are protests that have happened across the world that, yeah, do, kind of, have more extremist elements to them, but I think that concern themselves – I mean, the question we need to ask is, what have governments done, or not done, to stoke these fears or to answer these questions, or these worries that people have?
Nicolas Lawley
Can we have one right at the front, this gentleman?
Khalid
Hi, my name’s Khalid. I’m studying at King’s College London right now, doing my post-grad. I was in Bangladesh on the ground in 2024 throughout the protests, and I think, for me, one thing seeing on the ground, one of the realities were a lot of younger Officers that were – that are in the ranks of the army who after the internet outage was stopped and the internet came back, there was a joint letter by the junior Officers of the army saying, “We will not follow the order to fire upon our…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm.
Khalid
…own citizens.” So, I just wanted to ask you how much of a factor is that in managing to suppress a Gen Z protest and, you know, dictating the outcome of what happens after? So, thank you.
Dr Nayana Prakash
So, do you mean how much of a factor is the army, in general?
Khalid
Army, in general, and the younger members, especially, in the army, that tend to think a lot like the Gen Z…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm.
Khalid
…outside of the army more than the higher ranked Officers.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah, well, it’s an interesting example. You probably have a better sense than I do because you were there on the ground. Clearly, I think that sounds like something that can make a really big difference. You know, like, the army, I think, functions as – it’s made-up of a lot of individual members with different points of view. And I think as these, you know, protests become more and more successful and as they gain steam, it’s possible that groups that are meant to be containing these protests may actually find they identify more with the people who they’re supposed to be suppressing, I think, than the people that they necessarily represent.
They are also people with political views and political opinions, and I can’t really make a, kind of, broad statement across young people in armies across the world, but I mean, it’s, I think, this idea of identity and whether people identify more with the institution they represent or the generation that they’re part of.
Nicolas Lawley
‘Cause there’s a degree of, also, if they’re in the army, they have a job, I guess, which if the protest is about unemployment, then perhaps they don’t feel the same levels of solidarity, or they do if they have their friends and family of the same ilk. Any more questions? That lady just – I think we had two together.
Member
Go ahead, no, that’s fine.
Member
I’ll just say – oh, sorry.
Nicolas Lawley
We’ve got time for both, so don’t worry.
Amina Khalid
Hello, I’m Amina. I’ve come with FODIP. I have a question. You touched very briefly on the Arab Spring. Now, the Arab Spring was a multifaceted protest, whether you look at Libya, Egypt or Tunisia. Now, in your view, considering how protests have changed with the rise of TikTok and Instagram, how differently could those protests, and they unfortunately led to war, but how differently could they have been with a more Gen Z approach, especially considering it being not slightly more directed, but because it had so many layers…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah.
Amina Khalid
…it became so much more complex? Could it have looked different if it was now, or do you think actually it la – it had so many layers with so much corruption and so much emotion that, actually, whether it was then or now, there’s no difference?
Dr Nayana Prakash
I want to start by saying there’s going to be an event on Thursday, as Nick mentioned, by the MENA Programme, and I am sure they will touch on Arab Spring, and they will have a much better regional focus than I’m able to bring. However, I think it’s really interesting because we give a lot of credit, I think, to social media apps sometimes for facilitating things, when actually people facilitate things, right? And, you know, we can say with the benefit of hindsight that, okay, like TikTok can do this, and it’s, like, no, people can do this and TikTok, kind of, can get you some of the way there. So, I don’t really want to give too much credit to these huge Big Tech companies that definitely didn’t really intend for this to be the purpose of their apps and are, kind of, just probably going along with it.
I think, you know, it’s interesting now because I talk about ‘impact’, like, what impact are these protests having? We have a little bit of the ability to look at Arab Spring and say, “Okay, what impact?” because it’s been over a decade now, and we can look at specific countries and say, what, kind of, change has happened?” I think, you know, there’s organisational things that might have been different, but again, I think Facebook and Twitter functioned really well at the time and effectively. It’s also important to have apps that everyone knows how to use, and that people can access freely with, like, limited data perhaps, without having to learn new things. In another ten years, there’ll be another app, there’ll be another platform, or there’ll be another forum where people can do this. And I think that, as I said, I’m not going to put too much store into the apps themselves because, you know, if the protest – like, the protest had to happen at that point, and that’s – that is what happened, basically.
Nicolas Lawley
So, you’re not – you know, you don’t think there’s such a big role for, I don’t know, tipping the scales of the algorithm, or you haven’t seen that across the – these protests?
Dr Nayana Prakash
I think, like, yes there is, but that could be true with so many different platforms, right? That’s not a issue that’s unique to TikTok or, like, unique to Instagram, and…
Nicolas Lawley
There’s a lot of talk of Twitter being particularly – algorithms get pushed one way or another.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Absolutely, and I think, you know, the role that Twitter – I mean, I will say one thing, is the role that Twitter had in the – in Arab Spring, I’m not sure X could play that role now. I’m not sure how much co-ordination like that is possible now. I think so many – you know, a lot of people have left the platform, obviously, but a lot of people find that posts aren’t being, kind of like, sorted in the same way. I’m not sure how much it could be a, kind of, responsive space to current events in quite the same way it was in, like, 2010, etc.
So, I think that, you know, this idea of, like, the algorithm pushing things and not pushing, it’s certainly true, it is absolutely true. Like, of course, we are fed things because of algorithms, it’s just that we – how to use those algorithms is one thing, but also, it – that is not unique to a specific platform. That is across a lot of different platforms. And Discord, as mentioned, is a – you know, it’s servers, it’s organising things, it’s the role that Signal and Telegram have played in other protests around the world, as well.
Nicolas Lawley
There’s a question that, kind of, riffs off this from Ava. “How and where can we observe the influence of the internet and social media on post-protest outcomes?
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm.
Nicolas Lawley
Are they making an overwhelmingly positive or negative impact? Does this differ geographically?” So, three questions for the price of one there on the post…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah, so what impact is the internet having on the a – like, in the – as the dust is settled now, basically?
Nicolas Lawley
If the dust has settled, which I appreciate given that Bulgaria is…
Dr Nayana Prakash
I think the dust is very – well, not just Bulgaria, protests are ongoing still in Peru, in Madagasc – in Morocco, as well, I think, and if the dust has settled in other places, it’s, you know, still very cloudy, basically.
Nicolas Lawley
Hmmm hmm.
Dr Nayana Prakash
I think that we can see – you know, we can have a look and see how active these servers are now, and I think for a lot of these countries, there are key points coming up at which I think these protests might be renewed. I mentioned Nepal having protests – having, kind of, elections again in March, I think that’s a really significant date, and we’ll see how much, kind of, satisfaction or dissatisfaction people gain from that political event. A lot of the protests in Morocco were sparked by the funding for the World Cup in 2030. I note that I think the Africa Cup of Nations, AFCON, is happening very soon, this month, I don’t know when. Someone…
Member
It started.
Dr Nayana Prakash
It started, good to know. Well, we’ll see then, I guess. And I think that in terms of the effect the internet has, I think one thing is that as media spotlight leaves some of these countries, as, you know, the media moves on because the protests are over, they move to a different country, they follow the news cycle around the world, ordinary people in these countries have to, kind of, get on with their lives, make the most of the governments that they live in. What, kind of, approach are they going to have to that? Are they going to continue to use the same soc – like, social media apps, etc.?
I think the question in a way is, kind of, also speaking to the idea of what impact in peacetime, if you can call it peacetime, do the int – do internet apps have in people’s lives? And the answer to that is, kind of, very multifaceted and varied. But I think that the point I made about citizen journalism, about people hearing from countries and hearing about things that maybe, like, establishment Western media, don’t really show an interest in showing, I think social media accounts can play a really important role in that.
Nicolas Lawley
Okay, thanks, we’ve got time for one more question. We haven’t been to this side of the room, so let’s go to you.
Ellie Price
Hi, my name’s Ellie. I’m interning at Chatham House. I was wondering what you thought about the wording of ‘protest’ as opposed to, like, a revolution, and whether there’s a, kind of, underestimation of the reach and strength of some protests, specifically in Nepal, which toppled, I believe, the Head of State, which in a lot of – well, in some interpretations of what a revolution means, that would…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Hmmm.
Ellie Price
…kind of, be considered one, do you think that – have you seen that in media coverage? Have you seen how, for instance, the young protesters who participate, how they conceive of it as a revolution as opposed to elites?
Dr Nayana Prakash
Thanks, that’s a great question. I like that, and I haven’t been asked that yet across any of the media outlets, but I will share that – a little story. Which is that one interview I did with a media outlet, a British media organisation, basically, we, kind of, had this argument, and they said, “Well, it’s not really a revolution, is it? I’ve spoken to loads of Academics who don’t think it comes under the defin – the academic definition of what a revolution is.” So, I guess there is an ac – I mean, there is an academic definition of revolution, but I was, kind of, arguing about, “Isn’t it revolutionary if it’s the biggest protest in this country’s history?” And that may compare differently to, kind of, neighbouring countries and the scale of protest that they’re used to. It may not meet the numbers. It may – you know, if the government is toppled but then replaced by a very similar government, would that not be a revolution?
But I think on its merits and at the time, I do think a lot of these acts are revolutionary, and I think the framing of it as a ‘revolution,’ I mean, the Bangladesh protests have been framed as the ‘July Revolution,’ and I think that’s very, very significant. And, you know, I mentioned earlier that – what are the metrics that we have for success and how do they vary sometimes from country to country? We – you know, I think sometimes we think, well, it’s not significant ‘cause it’s such a small protest, but if it does something like topple a government, or if it does something like get a lot of people who’ve never been politically engaged to take to the streets, I think that is incredibly significant and incredibly meaningful for the histories of these countries and for the futures of these countries. as well.
Nicolas Lawley
Just getting – remembering the song, “The Revolution Will Not Be Televised,” but…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Yeah.
Nicolas Lawley
…picturing it on TikTok maybe is very much…
Dr Nayana Prakash
Very much, the revolution is on TikTok now, yeah.
Nicolas Lawley
Exactly. We’re going to do a poll, I believe, which is going to be running for the people on Zoom, but let’s also gauge the in-person crowds. The question is, “Do governments around the world underestimate Gen Z?” And so, for those in the room, hands up if you think “yes.” I think there’s slightly more than half.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Nick, well, how would you vote?
Nicolas Lawley
I think “no.” I have a – sadly, coming from a Western European nation, Gen Z don’t tend to vote, so they don’t, they get ignored. But anyway, who’s on my side? Who agrees “no?” Anyone in the room? Thank you, that makes me feel much better. There’s a couple of hands.
Dr Nayana Prakash
Three people.
Nicolas Lawley
So, we’ll just give it another minute but thank you everyone for attending today’s Members’ Question Time. Thank you, Dr Nayana. I think this has been very illuminary, for myself at least. Everyone, please join me in a round of applause for Dr Nayana today [applause].
