Dr Patricia Lewis
[Pause] Ready? Happy New Year. I want to give everyone a warm welcome, to our members, our friends at Chatham House, where we’ve been convening on these big issues in international relations and conflict for over a hundred years now. So, thank us for – thank you very much for joining us tonight to help us continue that tradition, and indeed, this is almost a new tradition in that, to have this annual meeting on the “Ten Conflicts to Watch that Crisis Group” produces every year.
My name’s Patricia Lewis. I’m the Research Director for Conflict, Science and Transformation, and the Director of International Security, and I’m delighted to welcome you back to Chatham House, Dr Comfort Ero, who’s the President and CEO of Crisis Group, but the first time doing this particular new tradition. So, before we begin, a few important points. One is that the discussion is on the record and it’s being livestreamed, so welcome everyone to the livestream. I’ve got a laptop here where I can see questions, and for those who do want to answer quest – to ask questions individually, please let me know that, that would be very helpful, or if you want me to read them out, let me know that as well. And for those who want to, we do encourage you to tweet and please use the #CHEvents and if you can @ChathamHouse, give us a little bit of a shout out, that would be helpful.
So, this is a highly anticipated report every year at Chatham House, I think, the “Ten Conflicts to Watch”, which is published by Crisis Group. And there’s no better person for this than Dr Comfort Ero, who is the President and CEO of Crisis Group, and who’s spent her entire career working on or in conflict-affected countries, and Comfort, you’ve been in post now for a year…
Dr Comfort Ero
Yes.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…right, but you first joined Crisis Group in 2001 and you’ve had a long association with Crisis Group.
Dr Comfort Ero
Hmmm hmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
You’ve also served as Deputy Africa Programme Director for the International Centre for Transitional Justice and you’ve been Political Affairs Officer and Policy Advisor to the Special Representative of the Secretary-General at the UN Mission in Liberia, and of course, you have a PhD from our very close neighbours, the LSE.
Dr Comfort Ero
Thank you.
Dr Patricia Lewis
And, you know, we’ve known each other for – I don’t know – we don’t want to talk about how long, but it’s a great pleasure to have you in this capacity…
Dr Comfort Ero
Thank you.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…back at Chatham House.
Dr Comfort Ero
Thank you very much.
Dr Patricia Lewis
So, a very warm welcome, and I’m going to start by asking you some questions and get into a conversation, and then we’re going to open up to the floor, because you will all think I’ve done a completely inadequate job of asking the questions, so I’m sure you’ll have some great ones to ask. So, I thought we’d start by you telling us about this year’s Ten Conflicts to Watch. You know, how have we come up with this particular list? What’s the methodology behind it, and how does it compare or contrast with last year’s list? What’s missing, what’s gone up the agenda, and how did last year’s list pan out in terms of – how good were your predictions? I mean Ukraine, yes, absolutely, so we’ll give you that, but what about the rest?
Dr Comfort Ero
Thank you very much and really, it’s a pleasure to be back here, but this time with capacity – leading the Crisis Group, and also, thank you to Chatham House for continuing the partnership where we launch the Ten Conflicts to Watch over here. And it’s really nice to see some familiar faces, Leslie particularly, our good friends here in the front, as well.
Let me start by explaining the methodology, because that really never necessarily changes, and then I can do the compare and contrast and publicly hold ourselves to account on how well our assessments from last year panned out, as well. I mean the – it’s – there’s no science behind it. It’s really a judgment that we take with our experts, our Analysts, throughout the regions where we work, and we look right across the board, right across the various regions, to get a sense of the various changing dynamics, of the evolution of certain conflicts.
What is definitely at the top and never changes for Crisis Group, given our mandate, is that it’s really about the number of people suffering, dying, the humanitarian imperative behind a number of these conflicts. And when you look at the figures by the UN itself, by the Office For Humanitarian Affairs, you begin to understand why it’s not a surprise that some of the conflicts that we put on our list are there, just because of the sheer humanitarian and human toll, and that’s increasing, not decreasing, as we continue this – sadly, continue this watchlist as well.
But beyond the important dynamics, there are, I think – when we look across the board and when we speak to our Analysts in the various regions, whether it’s Latin America or the Middle East region, or Asia or Africa, or Europe as well, there are at least three things that, sort of – that explain why we’ve got the ten, but also why we had the ten of last year. The geopolitical significance is right at the top, and it also explains why twice in a row, Ukraine is at the top, because the fallout and the ramifications and the geopolitical significance of Ukraine.
But it’s not just Ukraine that has that geopolitical significance, whether it’s Yemen, it’s Iran, it’s the Great Lakes region, where you’re seeing a proxy war playing out, that explains why those countries are featured in our ten conflicts this year. I think the other significance is where we see opportunities for peace-making, where we see opportunities to drive through or find a pathway to peace. So, explains why Ethiopia was on our list last year and this year. Different positions, but nonetheless, it’s on the list last year, and it’s also why Yemen also was on the list. What binds those two countries together was that there was a truce last year, both of them broke down, and now we have opportunities again for peace in Ethiopia and a great deal of question marks over that, and we can talk about that later as well.
The other reason that I think that – the other reason, or the other methodology that drives our conflicts, is also just the changing dynamics on the ground, ever flowing in – sometimes in the wrong direction, explains why Haiti is on the list as well, sometimes going in the right direction, but oftentimes we see just the deteriorating circumstances, as well. Also explains why we’ve put Taiwan on the list, because we’re warning about something into the future. Even if we don’t see the near and present danger today, there are trendlines that are very disturbing, particularly around major power tensions that then mean certain conflicts are intensified.
Now, to what we said last year and how we – I mean, I’m – I don’t know if I’m the best person to judge. I mean, I looked at – I’m looking at the list now from last year, as well. I mean the – I think the very first thing to say, Patricia, is that even if it’s not on the list this year, and even if it’s on the list last year, it doesn’t mean that that conflict is still not of concern. I think at the end, what drives our analysis is that we’re saying to you that – we’re not saying that this is an inclusive list, or this is an exhaustive list, but we are saying that this is the ten conflicts that our experts believe that you should be paying attention to this year.
That doesn’t mean that because Israel/Palestine is not on the list this year, that the troubles over there are no longer important, they are. It also is just a sad reality that there’s so much to choose from today, that there’s just – that the international peace and security landscape is going in the wrong direction. We – you know, now we have a war in Europe, with the ramifications of that as well, so this is not a good moment to be talking – and even though these are ten conflicts, they are simply what we believe you should be watching, but it doesn’t mean that all the other concerns are off the table. It’s also conflicts that we believe that are sometimes below the radar, that we try to bring back onto the radar of international attention, and also, as I said, ones that we think requires concerted international action.
The one conflict that a number of people, sort of – last year a number of people asked us why not – why we didn’t put North Korea on the list. This year I’ve noticed just by looking across what’s coming through on the social media, a number of people have asked us, “Why didn’t you put Myanmar on the list?” And there are good reasons why we should’ve included Myanmar but, you know, we also needed to think about other conflicts in the Asia region that are of concern to us, and Pakistan, therefore, was put on the list, partly because of the political tensions in the country, but also just the dire consequences coming from the tremendous flood that took place in the country and the economic woes that accompany that, as well. So, I’ll be quite interested to hear people’s perspectives, but that explains what’s on the list last year and what’s not on the list.
The – my final point about the comparison with last year and this year is Ukraine. I mean, though sadly, for Crisis Group in – you know, one doesn’t want to boast about tragedies, but we were very clear last year that take Putin at his word, he wasn’t bluffing, that there would be some kind of military adventurism. The scale of it, the depth of it, how long it would last, nobody could predict. I mean, some thought it’d be a quick victory, but we were very clear that there would be some kind of military adventurism from Putin and the groundwork had already been laid in the years leading into that, as well, yeah.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes, I think that’s a really good point. You know, I think many of us were very worried a year ago, it was clearly hotting up. But I think the global ramifications of it, for example, and this is one of the key things about the – Russia’s war against Ukraine, which I find – you know, we didn’t really fully understand. Obviously, there were all the sanctions which, you know, were really important, but have all sorts of global ramifications. There’s the issue of resources, there’s the issue of energy prices and food. So, you know, I was recently in Central America and became aware of how far away Europe felt to me, and I think that that’s very true for many countries around the world, even though it’s having a direct impact on them.
So, how do you think that – how do you think the rest of the world understands these global ramifications, and will that change the way in which other countries that are far away – you know, we often ignore far away conflicts here, right?
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah.
Dr Patricia Lewis
And it’s not – it’s quite understandable that they would also not feel connected to the conflict in Europe, but given the global ramifications, how will that change and shift over time?
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, in fact one of – I think one of the most, sort of, glaring factors that emerged out of, or that has emerged so far out of Ukraine, is just the extent of that ramifications and that there are different ways in which you can look at it. I mean, what you’re pointing to is how the rest of the world outside of Europe has viewed it, whether it’s in Latin America or Asia, or Africa, and there’s been a tendency to, sort of, lump a number of countries together under the Global South and speak of the Global South as having one voice. And then, a number of people have talked about a non-aligned redux, a number of people have talked about a return to Cold War politics, a number of people have spoken about “the West versus the Rest.” And I think what is very clear is that the, you know, the way in which the West wants the rest of the world to view the Ukraine hasn’t panned out in the same way.
What I’ve been very clear about, at least when speaking about it from the so-called – and I say so-called Global South, because we haven’t found another way in which to explain it, although I think we should just talk about the regions in themselves, when I’ve been asked to think about it, at least from the Africa context, you know, I’ve pushed back against some notion, or some assumption that somehow a number of countries, or the continent itself, doesn’t understand what is going on in Ukraine. So, there is an understanding that this is aggression. There is an understanding that this has – this is an invasion, that this is a threat to the political integrity, there’s a sovereignty of another nation, and that those principles that are embedded in the United Nations Charter are not up for grabs. But none of these countries, who may have a different view about what Ukraine means, they are not contesting these principles of political independence, of sovereignty, of territorial integrity.
What, however, they are discussing, however, is about the double standards and about the hypocrisy. Some of them are also challenging this notion that, “Why is it that you are insisting that we have to support you?” – what some of them see as a war between the West and Russia. “Why are you insisting that we have to back that war? You never took the same, sort of, consideration for our conflict, as well.” When some people say, for example, that, you know, “Mariupol” for example, is “our Aleppo,” it’s not a surprise that you hear some of the countries in the Gulf – countries turn around and say, “Aleppo is our Aleppo. This is our crisis. When you ask us to pick and choose, we say, “Well why, you know, why are you forcing us to take sides? We don’t see this as a need for us to take choices. We have our relationships, we want to safeguard those relationships as well.””
The other thing is that Ukraine is coming in the context of a period where there was a lack of solidarity, lack of international co-operation, for example over the global pandemic, COVID-19, and you saw the fallout from the vaccine diplomacy. Also, at the same time, this is coming at a time when a number of countries are asking for support over climate financing, “So you insist that we support you, but when we asked for your support, you weren’t backing us.” So, the – and you’ve seen a lot of frustration, a lot of irritation, by a number of countries that are outside of Europe, as well.
So, no, I really do want to emphasise it’s not that a number of these countries do not see what is happening against Ukraine. They understand it as aggression. What they don’t want is that you force them to pick and choose sides, and what they also want you to understand is that “We also have national security interest, we also have foreign policy interest, and we’re going to be guided by that and not by what you define those interests to be,” as well. And I think that’s been an interesting – it’s been interesting to watch that, but it’s also been interesting to watch a number of countries feel emboldened, as well, to actually stare down the West and say, “We want you to understand our own perspective on these issues.” And then, you’ve seen a rise of a number of countries, sort of, middle powers, activists who feel that they too, sort of, have a position and that they want to also assert their own foreign policy independence, vis-à…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Turkey, for example.
Dr Comfort Ero
Like Turkey.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yeah.
Dr Comfort Ero
Turkey, interestingly, I – and I would put that in one – I’d put it in the camp of, sort of, middle powers, the very activist, in its own position, played a very assertive role in terms of diplomacy in Africa, for example. Has been trying to strike a balance between its position in NATO, its relationship with Russia, being one of the outside powers with Russia in Syria, but also playing a very important role in terms of the Black Sea grain deal, as well. So, it’s – you know, that’s one of the rising middle powers and watching how it’s asserted its own foreign policy, even on the question of Finland and Sweden coming into NATO and how it, sort of, was very vocal in terms of its own demands vis-à-vis the entry of those two countries into NATO, as well, hmmm hmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes, exactly. No, I think that’s been, really, one of the key things and, you know, we’re looking at also China and what China’s learning. So, China’s been very interesting in response to this conflict. Obviously, it’s looking at the disruption that Russia is causing. It has a traditional relationship, but has been quite irritated, I think, by Russia, and particularly the threat to use nuclear weapons by…
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Which has put China in a difficult position in India, as well.
Dr Comfort Ero
Hmmm hmm, yeah, China’s been – it’s been actually interesting to watch and trying to assess how Xi Jinping and the rest of China has viewed Russia’s invasion into Ukraine. You’ll recall that, you know, ahead of the Olympics, Putin and Xi Jinping met. Who knows what was – what he whispered into Xi Jinping’s ear about how quickly he thought he could go into Ukraine and do this in a very quick way. Certainly, I think this has become a headache for Xi Jinping. Certainly, it’s a mess that he doesn’t want to see.
Having said that, and what we emphasise in the Ten Conflicts, is that despite, you know, his frustration, or irritation or dissatisfaction in the way in which Putin has handled the crisis, he’s not going to publicly undercut Putin and the – and his war in Ukraine. He’s also not going to compel or force Russia into any form of negotiated settlement. He’s not going to make life easier for the West, for example, but at the same time, I – my sense, our sense, in – is that, you know, Beijing is also not wan – he’s not going to want to provoke the West any further. And it’s also interesting that both him and Chancellor – both Xi Jinping and Chancellor Scholz were very clear on the question of the use of nuclear weapons, and I think that really did make Beijing very nervous, as well.
You know, and I think there are other, sort of, ramifications for China when it looks, also, in its own neighbourhood, as well, you know, and other, sort of, geopolitical ramifications tied to Taiwan, for example. You know, a number of people have looked, therefore, at how China would deal with Taiwan, because of – in the context of Ukraine, you know. So, you know, question marks about the heavy price that it – that Xi Jinping and China would pay should it, therefore, mount some kind of escalation on Taiwan. It’s seen the impact of the sanctions that the West has imposed, very maximalist, as well.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Presumably taking steps to protect itself in the longer run?
Dr Comfort Ero
Taking steps to protect itself, not giving up on Taiwan, but necessarily taking those steps to protect itself, but very nervous so far about what it’s seeing in Russia. And you made reference to India, another one of those countries that we would put in that, sort of, middle power activist country, but another one of those countries that the West, in a sense, privately has been dissatisfied that, you know, India has, sort of, kept that relationship pragmatically with Russia in terms of arms. But at the same time, India is an important ally vis-à-vis – I mean, against China, as well.
So, the West maybe, sort of, wanting India to, sort of, be in its own camp and it’s certainly there in terms of security and a close ally to the US in terms of security, but at the same time, India striking a very delicate balance, and also at the same time calling out Putin, saying – talking about the danger of war, at the same time. So, again, it’s that pragmatism that a number of these middle powers play according to their own national security interest and what makes sense for their own domestic and national impulses, as well.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Well, maybe we could move – and to look at Ethiopia, you mentioned Ethiopia and Tigray…
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, hmmm hmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…earlier and, you know, you’ve been flagging this for quite some time, and we’ve seen a real – a lot of movement over the last year in terms of attempts at brokering peace. And how do you see the potential for the whole peace process in Ethiopia and Tigray, because, you know, the original attack, although there’d always been this tension and this dispute, but nonetheless, given the Nobel Prize etc., it – there was all this optimism about that? And then it was a similar shock, in a way, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to a lot of people. So, how do you see the future of that, going forward, and of course, the real importance of Ethiopia in Africa and for the rest of the world?
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah. No, one of the things I did last year, and I noticed he came into the rooms, Nick Westcott asked us a year ago, sort of, a similar question when the Royal African Society was having its own debate on the question of Ethiopia. And Ethiopia is a country that was both on our watchlist last year and this year, and it’s, in the last five years, been a constant priority for Crisis Group. I think the very first thing to say, and I – it speaks, again, to the methodology that Crisis Group uses to guide the Ten Conflicts, is that from a humanitarian perspective, in terms of the suffering and the violence, this is an important good news, because what it’s also – what has accompanied the peace, even if it’s fragile at the moment, what has accompanied the peace is that it’s led to an opening of access into Tigray. Astonishing, devastating violence, sexual violence, devastation of infrastructure, you know, starvation. The return – if you remember, Patricia, you know, the 80s was dominated…
Dr Patricia Lewis
80s…
Dr Comfort Ero
…by famine and idea that we were talking about famine again at a time when people were celebrating the birth of, sort of, of democracy or democratisation in Ethiopia has been quite devastating.
Dr Patricia Lewis
And those terrible Ethiopian–Eritrean – hmmm.
Dr Comfort Ero
Exactly, so this isn’t – so I think that we should als – we should note that that’s an important news. Now, as to the future and the viability of the peace process, I mean, I – in – I don’t want to say it hangs in the balance, but there are a number of unresolved questions and a number of unresolved issues. We were very concerned when Pret – when the peace – part one of the peace deal, I think it’s safe to call it, was signed in Pretoria, a huge sigh of relief, but there was a sense in which it was a victor’s peace, you know, a victor’s, you know, outcome for Prime Minister Abiy.
The balancing of that initial settlement came in Nairobi, when there was further talks and then, you know, what was put on the table then was that, you know, Eritrea would withdraw from Tigray and Amhara, the region within Ethiopia, would also pull back. And there are question marks about, you know, whether the Tigrayans themselves will disarm and whether – and how serious Prime Minister Isaias would be about withdrawing from Northern Tigray, as well. So, there are a number of question marks, also, just about the sustainability, also, and the commitment of both sides in the conflict, as well.
So, I think here it’s really key and imperative that those who are guarantors to the peace, particularly African leaders, continue to pressure both sides, those who have direct access to both Prime Minister Abiy, but the Tigrayan leaders. It’s also important that we make sure that the humanitarian corridor is left open. It’s good that there’s now some domestic flights going into Tigray, but we’re not out of the woods yet. Last year, we had a truce that quickly turned into a war, and now – I mean, I think the big question mark now is whether, you know, Isaias can be trusted to pull back, whether the Tigrayans will disarm and whether Addis, as well, will keep faithfully committed to Pretoria and the Nairobi peace deal, as well.
Dr Patricia Lewis
I mean, Crisis Group have people all over the world.
Dr Comfort Ero
Hmmm hmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
This is one of the most interesting things about the way in which you work. You have people really plugged in, working on the ground, feeding back information…
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, hmmm hmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…that allows you to do this type of analysis. And so, are there any other conflicts that you want to highlight? We can get into some more specifics, I guess, from the questions. Are there any ones that you want to highlight, either in Africa or in other parts of the world, that’s on this Ten Conflicts to Watch, before we go to the floor?
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, thanks for asking. I mean, the other one – I mean, in the time that I’ve been at Crisis Group, and much of that was as Africa Programme Director, of all the conflicts that was – that has, sort of – that has focused on Crisis Group, was always the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes.
Dr Comfort Ero
It has never, sort of – I was trying to see if it ever appeared on any of our watchlists and I don’t recall it appearing on the watchlist, and this is the first time it has appeared. And if you recall, at the beginning, when you asked me about the methodology and what guides us, I said one of the key things that guides our decision is the “geopolitical ramifications” of any particular conflict, and here it’s not just the DRC, but it’s the Great Lakes, and that region is back on the table for us in a very significant way.
We are talking at a time where the country is on the eve of elections this year, where we’re seeing the resurgence of the M23, former – the, sort of, ex-Congolese Army Soldiers, mainly Tutsis, where the UN has reported that Rwanda continues to support this insurgency, and where Felix Tshisekedi, the President of Congo, is trying to reassert authority in the east, and has brought in and welcomed Uganda and Burundi, and out of frustration, Rwanda sees this as a threat, both economically, politically and from a security perspective.
So, we’re watching the unfolding of a proxy war, and the region has decided to launch a regional force to intervene, to compel the insurgency, and this is a region that has already got a UN peacekeeping mission and the UN peacekeeping mission is struggling in terms of how to manage the crisis. So, it’s one to watch, a very worrying one because it sucks in three countries. You know, Kenya also, you know, following its own elections finds in itself having to both manage its own internal problems and deal with a regional consideration.
So, that’s one that I would want to, sort of, emphasise and then, because – in terms of – because of talking about peacekeeping, the other one to talk about is Haiti, and that – the reason I mention it is it was on our list last year, and it’s on our list this year. And it’s a country that has really had a very difficult relationship with, sort of, the international community, with the UN particularly, and yet, it’s a country now that is turning back to the international community to ask for some kind of foreign force to help it compel gangs that are now, you know – who have got a strong foothold controlling much of the country, and that really puts that country in a very dire situation as well. So, I really wanted to flag that.
And the other thing that I think is important, sort of, to emphasise, Patricia, and it runs right through the Ten Conflicts and hopefully, it can be – we can discuss it further in the – with the audience, is that despite the difficulties and the very worrying trends that we’re seeing internationally, multilateralism hasn’t completely died.
Dr Patricia Lewis
No, in fact, I think there’s a reinvestment in it.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, yeah, there’s been a…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yeah.
Dr Comfort Ero
And how ironic, you know, that a number of people are now defending multilateralism. You know, last year or the year before, you know, under the previous Trump regime, there was a backlash, you know, and we talked a lot about how dysfunctional the Security Council is, and yet, we’re seeing in the last year or so that although, you know, there’s been struggles and the dysfunction is still there in the Security Council, it’s managed to compartmentalise, you know, a number of issues and it’s managed to – the machinery is still working. And out of it you saw a very activist UN Secretary-General deliver the Black Sea grain deal and other things that are very important, whether in terms of climate security or even in Ukraine. So, it’s not all been bad and gloomy. There are still some things that are working, though we can talk about the quality of the institutions, as well.
Dr Patricia Lewis
And as Bronwen pointed out last night, the General Assembly has had a new lease of life, as well.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, a new lease of life, you know, three times I think…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yeah, yeah.
Dr Comfort Ero
…they went to the Security Council. In fact, you know, I had the – I took the opportunity to listen to Bronwen this morning ‘cause I knew I was coming here, and one…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Good, good.
Dr Comfort Ero
…yeah, and one thing I welcomed that she said was that it was important that if you wanted to ensure the legitimacy of these institutions going forward, that you made sure that it was more representative, you know. And her recognising the importance of the African Union to be part of the G20, and it’s going to be a very significant year, with India also being at the helm of the G20, and then you’ve got Japan also at the helm of the G7, and how that’s going to be very important in terms of reviving the relevance of these various multilateral bodies, as well.
Dr Patricia Lewis
So, before we turn to the floor, and we’ve got a number of questions online, there’s one question that’s come up online, and just answer it very quickly. Are the conflicts themselves arranged in order, in a…?
Dr Comfort Ero
No.
Dr Patricia Lewis
No?
Dr Comfort Ero
No, but of course…
Dr Patricia Lewis
But number one is Russia/Ukraine.
Dr Comfort Ero
…number one is Ukraine.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yeah.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, you know, so, and we – and I said because it encapsulates all those things that I said, the geopolitical ramifications. The one that we haven’t talked about, and it may come up, is about the nuclear risks and escalation associated with that as well. But it’s not in a ranking order, but…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Don’t get me started on that.
Dr Comfort Ero
No.
Dr Patricia Lewis
But – and Amna Nawaz was asking that and I just wanted to clarify that.
Dr Comfort Ero
Okay, yeah, hmmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
So, it’s number one, and then the rest are pretty well in the top ten.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, you can guarantee that the first one is the one that’s the top of our concerns.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Great. Right, so I’m – oh, well you see, this is the thing about this thing, you always get so many great questions. I’m really looking forward to this. So, I’m going to the front row, please, with the woman there, okay. Please introduce yourselves and use the microphone, because we have people online who need to hear. So, it’s not enough that people in the room can hear you, so please say who you are.
Member
Well, first of all, thank you so much. I am [inaudible – 36:52], I am a PhD student at King’s College, War Studies Department. My question is about – before question, I just want to say one thing. This war in Ukraine I hope wakes the West and I really hope it change many things, because many conflicts what we have seen, even in Europe, we are helping, supported by Russia, Yugoslavia, Georgia and so on and so forth. My question is about, do you think there is any possibility of peace process in any direction without defeated – defeat Russia in Ukraine, politically and militarily? Thank you.
Dr Comfort Ero
Well, I mean…
Dr Patricia Lewis
So, Comfort, do you want to take that, ‘cause I think it’s a really important question to answer. Why don’t you take that at the beginning, and I’ll go back to the floor, and if people just keep their hands up, I will ignore you. Just to let you know that. Please put them up and down so that I can see at the time, thank you.
Dr Comfort Ero
You know, that said, do you want me…?
Dr Patricia Lewis
Please. Thank you.
Dr Comfort Ero
Do you want me to…?
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes, please, yeah.
Dr Comfort Ero
Okay. Good question, very difficult one for an organisation that, you know, always looks for a pathway to peace. One would hope that there will be a settlement that also includes Russia, not defeating Russia, you know. I think a Putin Russia that’s got his back to the wall, that feels imperilled, that sees no way out, is a dangerous Putin, is a dangerous Russia, so I would hope there would be some kind of settlement. What that looks like, we can’t go ahead of Ukraine in terms of what that looks like. I mean, I think Ukraine has been very clear on its demands, but also Russia has been very clear on demands. I think the worst-case scenario is one that leads to some kind of victory. You want a situation where the territorial integrity of Ukraine is – remains sacrosanct, as well, but you also want a situation where you don’t force the hardliners around – Putin and those around him to feel impelled to push harder.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Comfort, can I challenge you a little bit on that, ‘cause I think it’s so important? So, in other words, essentially, the more dangerously and crazily someone might behave, the more, then, we worry about them and give into them.
Dr Comfort Ero
No, that’s not what…
Dr Patricia Lewis
And does that make others do the same?
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, and that’s exact – that – I’m not – absolutely not…
Dr Patricia Lewis
So, you’re not saying that?
Dr Comfort Ero
…absolutely not saying that…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Great.
Dr Comfort Ero
…as well, and I think that’s been one of the calculations that we’ve been looking at very carefully, as well, and, you know, the question that we’ve always looked at is what is the risk of a nuclear escalation? And, you know, Putin has been very astute at using that and dangling that in front of Ukraine and in front of the West, and the West hasn’t shifted its own position. The West hasn’t changed its tactics. The West has continued, and Crisis Group, for an organisation that’s about conflict prevention, that is always looking for a way out, we’ve been very clear about the use of, and the appropriate use of – and supporting and providing those nuc – those military weapons to Ukraine.
We’ve also been clear about not going ahead of Ukraine in terms of what a political settlement looks like, but at the back of everybody’s, you know, consideration, is making sure that you can, as far as possible, keep Putin in the room and keep Russia in the room. I think there are four hard questions that we need to address, and I see you’re nodding your head. Yeah, hmmm hmm, yeah, yeah. No, it – right now, it doesn’t work, yeah, hmmm hmm. Hmmm hmm, yeah, hmmm hmm.
Member
It’s [inaudible – 40:56].
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, hmmm hmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Great, thank you. So, I’ll take one more from the floor, here, and then – oh gosh, it’s so difficult. I’m going to go to the back, I think, just ‘cause I went to front. So, the woman in the back, please. Thank you.
Anna-Joy Rickard
Thank you. Anna-Joy Rickard from the Tony Blair Institute. I focus on the Sahel, but I’m interested in looking at conflicts across the globe, and there’s an interesting dynamic, I find, where geopolitics are changing, the world is changing and ties between countries are changing. And yet, when you look at cer – a particular conflict, you’ll see, as you’re rightly emphasising, you have the country leading that, the regional response to it and then, you have international actors, particularly the West, interacting with those conflicts, and often that is based on historical ties.
So, in the UK, even in this room, although it’s very international, in the UK there’ll be a lot more familiarity with certain conflicts that you’re talking about, rather than other ones, and I’m interested in how do you see that? As the West – as Western actors look at conflicts around the world, do you encourage those historical ties, where it’s understood? Do you think they should be shifting and changing as geopolitics changes? I’m interested in your thoughts around this.
Dr Patricia Lewis
And then, I’ve got another question from online, who – I’m not sure if you – if, Kieran O’Meara, if you want to speak, or whether you’re happy for me to read it out. So, I’m not sure how quickly that can be done. I’ll read one – I’ll read a cou – one more before we decide that, and so, it – oh, he can’t speak. Okay, so Kieran, I’ll ask your question for you. So, can this – “To what extent is contemporary international order threatened by conflict driven by ecological climate crisis? Climate and human security have featured heavily over the course of the past few reports, and can you speak a little bit to this notion in relation to the conflicts in – to watch in 2023?”
Thank you, and then I’d also like, if I can, to go to Mary Kaldor’s question, if she wants to speak later, and to Mariano Aguirre who’s online. If both of them can be prepared to speak, that would be great. It’s great to have you in to speak, if possible, so – and of course, I’m sure you’d always want to take a question from both of those people, so, it…
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, no, it’s great, yeah, and to the frank question of…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes, please. Thank you.
Dr Comfort Ero
…at the back. I mean it’s not – you know, when I look at certain conflicts across the world, you know, in Sierra Leone the UK was a lead actor, and one of the things that Crisis Group said back then, back in 2020, that, you know, “The US should step into Liberia because of its own historical ties there, because France also was involved in Ivory Coast.” So, often – and this was in terms of the Security Council and wanting a lead nation to – and oftentimes, those lead nations do have the historical ties that you were alluding to.
I wasn’t sure whether you were inferring that sometimes those former colonial powers are – then become problematic actors in terms of the – in terms of what we’re seeing in the Sahel. I wasn’t quite sure, otherwise, what the question was that you were trying to ask. But oft – it’s not a surprise that you see former colonial powers are the ones that are actually at the forefront of conflict prevention, resolution, or part of the problem, as we’ve seen, also, in the Sahel, and I can extend that to other regions as well, but because you specifically mentioned the Sahel, hmmm hmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
No, plea – nobody can hear you online if you don’t take the microphone, sorry, thank you.
Anna-Joy Rickard
Yeah, it’s a question, for example, as the UK looks at various conflicts around the world, as geopolitics shifts and changes, but a government only has a certain amount of bandwidth and resources. So, are we encouraging a country like the UK to keep looking at the evolving conflicts, or does it need to choose? How does a country prioritise?
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, I mean it’s a good question, how does a country prioritise, especially when that country’s also just, you know, cobbled with so much domestic problems as well? You know, which is what’s happening in the UK, and I’ll stop there.
Dr Patricia Lewis
And many other countries.
Dr Comfort Ero
And many other countries as well, so I’ll stop there, because I may go down the wrong street.
Dr Patricia Lewis
And then, there – so then, a part of that narrative, of course, is climate change…
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, yeah.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…where the UK hasn’t taken quite a lead.
Dr Comfort Ero
To be fair as well though, we got a little bit nervous in terms of was he going or was he not going to COP27 and all the poli – unnecessary politics about there – about that, as well. So, the UK has played an important role, and I hope it continues to play that role. I mean – so, climate change, for the first time under my predecessor, Rob Malley, was put as a conflict to watch and I think you led the conversation…
Dr Patricia Lewis
I did, yeah.
Dr Comfort Ero
…yeah, then as well. And it’s – it continues to be what I would consider – to borrow Nick Westcott’s line when we were briefing the UK, you know, Nick talked about “One of the most significant megatrends” that we needed “to keep an eye on,” and certainly at least in relation to Africa, was “climate change and climate security.” The other megatrend being the COVID pandemic, as well. I mean, we’re not saying there’s a direct causal link between climate change and climate security, but what we are seeing is in a number of fragile countries, but also globally, and this is not necessarily specific to countries that are at conflicts already, but we’re seeing changing weather patterns and how that’s also impacting, and that’s even in America or Europe.
We’re seeing floods and droughts, you know, Pakistan, very devastating, and we’re seeing countries that are fragile, that are vulnerable, not having the resources, the capacity to manage the consequences as a result of climate change. We’re also seeing, you know – think – one of the drivers of conflict, for example in the Sahel, particularly also in Nigeria, the Herder-Farmer crisis is also about sharing land and sharing resources, and how a country manages those resources.
We’re also seeing a very devastating situation today in South Sudan, where a flood in one part of the country forces people to move to another part of that – of the country. Which part of the country are they’re moving to? A country – a region that’s already affected by, and is already in the midst of, fighting as well. So, it is als – it’s why we, you know, we have made a very big push for actors to begin to understand the link between climate, climate security, and fragility, as well. And then, was there another question? Was that Mary’s question?
Dr Patricia Lewis
That was – no, no, we’re going on to, I hope, hear from Mary Kaldor and Mariano Aguirre. So, I’m hoping that they’ll be able to speak.
Mary Kaldor
I’m here.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes.
Dr Comfort Ero
Oh good, nice to hear you, Mary.
Mary Kaldor
Can you see me? Actually I just asked a question, and I don’t know if you want me to say anything, as well.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes, please, if you could ask the question.
Mary Kaldor
But they – can you hear me?
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes.
Mary Kaldor
Yeah, okay.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Can hear you loud and clear.
Mary Kaldor
So, I was going to – so I will make a – I’ll ask my question, but also make a comment on the negotiation point and see what Comfort thinks. The question, really, was when you were talking, Comfort, about, you know, people in the rest of the world who thinks – who do understand, and I’ve heard so many people say that from Jordan and from Africa, that “Russia is the aggressor,” the idea that at the same time you can’t take – you shouldn’t take sides, seems to me quite contradictory.
I completely share their views about the hypocrisy of the West and when the West is calling for Putin to be tried for the crime of aggression, I still would like to see Bush and Blair to be tried for the crime of aggression in Iraq, which really is the beginning of a lot of our troubles. So, I think one can make that argument, but it seems to me that there’s something strange about saying you don’t then change – take sides, and that’s what I find very difficult to understand, because how can you not take sides in this situation?
And the other issue I would – it relates to that, was your exchange about negotiations. I think it’s extremely difficult to have negotiations about political outcomes, because – precisely for the same reason, that Russia is the aggressor and its occupation of Ukrainian territory is just unacceptable, and also, it’s impossible to imagine that there is a solution that’s satisfactory to both sides. But on the other hand there are actually negotiations going on which I think are very interesting, for example over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and you know, I was just hearing that Ukraine, it’s, sort of, stabilised because of the presence of IAEAE [means IAEA].
Similarly, there was a real achievement, the agreement about exporting grain and overcoming the blockade, and there are lots of lower-level agreements on exchanges of prisoners, evacuations of civilians. So, it seems to me there is an area for negotiation but we need to draw a distinction between what one might call humanitarian negotiations and, sort of, top-down peace negotiations, and that probably applies also to Ethiopia, but it’s a, sort of, general point, really.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Thank you, Mary. I’m going to turn now to Mariano Aguirre to – he’s looking at the abandonment. So, Mariano…
Dr Comfort Ero
Okay.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…if you could try to…
Mariano Aguirre
Yes, can you hear me?
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes, we can.
Mariano Aguirre
Great, thank you very much. Well, thank you for this event and thank you for the presentation. Do you think, Dr Ero, that Haiti is an example of what I consider a strong trend by the big and medium powers to abandon countries that have no resources to offer, and that their domestic situations, at the same time, seem impossible to manage? And for medium coun – powers in this case, I would like to remember that some years ago a series of countries in Latin America, they decided to go against some kind of taboo in Latin America and they builded up an intervention in Haiti under the UN flag, leaded particularly by Chile, Brazil and Argentina. But in this moment there are no countries at all, starting with the US and the Latin Americans and others, to be in Haiti and to implement any kind of intervention, with all the difficulties, of course, that an intervention in a country now dominated by gangs could have. But I would like to have your opinion about it.
And by the way, listening to Mary Kaldor, I think that there is a, kind of, parallel in this moment with this trend against any, kind of, negotiations in Ukraine and against any, kind of, intervention in Haiti, and perhaps it’s just – I’m wrong, but I think that there is something similar at – in these two kinds of negative positions towards their – toward these kind of situations. Thank you very much.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Thank you, Mariano. Comfort?
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, those are really two very good questions and I really want to, sort of, acknowledge Mary’s important point, talking about moments in which we have seen humanitarian negotiations. And those were hard-worn, they weren’t easy, those were highly – we label them humanitarian, but they’re highly political and highly sensitive and it wasn’t easy to get that Black Sea grain deal, for example. It wasn’t easy to get the prisoner swaps for example and it required a combination of players, Turkey being one, Saudi Arabia being another. So, we – while we label them humanitarian, they were highly political in terms of getting that going, as well. So – and it goes back again to the point that you were raising.
But on the issue of taking sides, I really want to emphasise, again, that a number of those countries who people assume haven’t taken sides, are very clear on the principles, they’re very clear on the issue of the aggression. Let’s not forget, also, that we saw the votes go up higher after the annexation referendum, and that that was taken back to the General Assembly and a number of countries who initially abstained back in the very first General Assembly vote in March, then voted against the annexation and made it very clear that they consider that aggression. Let’s not also forget that the def – that the most vocal defender of multilateralism and who spoke in defence of the Sec – of the UN Charter, came from one of the Global South countries, and it was Kenya. So, you know, Kenya had taken a very…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Extraordinary, powerful speech.
Dr Comfort Ero
Extraordinary, powerful speech. So, what these countries are saying is that, “If you recognise these principles of sovereignty, of our political independence, we were born out of these,” don’t forget that we were under colonial tutelage, so the notion that we don’t believe in these things is a fallacy. But if you agree about sovereignty, if you agree about independence, then you’ll also agree that it’s my right as a country, then, to define what my foreign policy looks like, as well. So, I recognise and I defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but you don’t get to push me in one direction, and a direction that I find questionable, as well, and that doesn’t necessarily fit my imperative, but that doesn’t mean that I support Russia, necessarily. I’m also pragmatic, I have my reasons for now.
Now, there are some countries, what – however you want to label them, there are some countries who are – who have tied their lot to Russia for security reasons. We’re watching very clearly what’s happening in Mali and what is happening in Central Africa Republic, you know, where they’ve relied heavily on Russian mercenaries in the form of Wagner. You know, we have seen, also, that those countries who have got an anti-West impulse, you know, we’ve watched the self-interest of some of the leaders who are seeking to survive and assume that Russia would somehow be an alternative security umbrella where France, for example, hasn’t been as well, and we recognise those countries and the problematic position that they’ve taken vis-à-vis Ukraine. But I just want to underline that we shouldn’t ignore the reasons and the choices that countries make.
And if the shoe was on the other foot, as well, you know, you – we were talking earlier on about the anniversary, for example, of Iraq, and there are people who genuinely are concerned that the same chamber that has labelled Russia an aggressor is also the chamber of other people that may also be called aggressors as well. So, just to make my…
Dr Patricia Lewis
This is the point Mary was making, as well, yeah.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah. On Haiti I also completely agree. I – yes, you know, Haiti’s one of those unfortunate countries and it’s – and I said the irony is not lost on any one of us that, you know, Haiti, one its legacies, the UN’s most troubled country and a, you know, a very bad legacy for the UN, are now having to contemplate not a UN-led, but maybe a UN-recognised, you know, foreign presence of sorts. And the fact that the region itself is holding out, and the fact the region itself is – hasn’t, sort of, given a green light to any form of foreign forces, tells you about the predicament of the region, as well, but also, it’s a reality of just the complexities of trying to intervene to deal with criminality, banditry and gangsterism, you know, in an urban setting.
You know, what kind of forces, what kind of troops, what kind of, you know, what kind of elements can you put into that situation and hope for a good outcome? So, it’s a difficult conundrum, but it’s – the gravity, also, is not lost on a number of countries, but the US is not going to do that. Its chequered history means that it’s not going to play that role, as well.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Thank you. I’m going to go back to the floor and here, but I do want to ask if two speakers online could come in towards the end, which is in about seven minutes. One of them is Shelley Deane and the other is Duff Mitchell, and see if we can go to them at the end. So, I’ve now got to be aware that I’ve gone to that side, so I’ve got to go over to this side, so I shall go to this gentleman here, you, thank you. Please, please could you not keep your hand up the whole time, thank you, ‘cause it’s very disturbing for everyone else. Thank you.
René Balletta
Good evening. Thank you very much for your talk this evening. Well, René Balletta, Royal Navy, just working over in the office of the Head of the French navy at the moment, over from Paris. My question concerns one of the conflicts you haven’t really spoken about, and I just wanted to know what your thoughts were, and I can’t criticise your ten. You have to have ten, there are a lot out there, so you’ve got to keep it down to ten. The events in South America, in particular Brazil and Peru, do you see them as flash in the pans, or do you see them as embers, potentially, to make the 2024 list, or beyond?
Dr Patricia Lewis
Great, thank you. I’ll take a question at the back there, please, thank you, in the middle.
Adam MacRae
Good evening, Adam from Holocene Impact Capital. I don’t know if my question is as important as others, as I haven’t raised my hand for half an hour, but out of character for myself, I’m going to be a bit optimistic. Is there a conflict you’re most looking forward to, or potentially seeing resolved, let me finish, let me finish, potentially being resolved in the years ahead with a lasting resolution? In that sense, looking forward to. Apologies for the phrasing on that one.
Dr Patricia Lewis
That’s great, and to the gentleman in white, just here. Euan, please, and wait for the microphone, thank you.
Euan Grant
Yeah, thank you very much indeed. The name’s Euan Grant. I’m ex-UK law enforcement. I’ve worked in Ukraine, Liberia, Yemen and Somalia and I’ve given an endorsement on the back cover of the new edition of Damien Lewis’s Operation Relentless, which covers the African Great Lakes region from the 1990s. My question is largely based on that. What, basically, has the UN learned about improving resilience and contingency planning? The reason I say that is I first identified Wagnerism nearly 25 years ago, and it’s been in plain sight under the eyes of the UN for decades now, and it raises very serious questions about whether the organisation can cope and wants to cope and is up to the job. Thank you very much, indeed.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Thank you, and then we’ve got two questions at the end, so that just means you’ve got to be very quick.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, okay. Flash in a pan, Brazil, Peru. You know, when we said our Ten Conflicts to Watch, we also did another one on, sort of, conflicts to, sort of, hope – what we – areas we hope, as well. Brazil, we – I don’t think it’s a – I think it – I don’t want to say it’s a flash in the pan. It’s dangerous to make a prediction game, but what we did say, also not in the Ten Conflicts to Watch, but in the statement that we issued this week, was it was devastating, shocking, but not a surprise, because the trendlines were already there. Bolsonaro himself did not accept, did not recognise Lula’s victory, his own hard-line supporters themselves had been all making a lot of murmurings that they were going to, sort of, push back against the vote. So, there was always a question about the smoothness of the transition as well. But one of the things that was – that has – that was never lost and was never lost even in the years under Bolsonaro, was just the way in which key institutions, the Constitution, the rule of law, and even civil society held together to protect some key principles and key institutions, so I think that’s one important point, as well.
The other important point and we – remember, we’re still looking at the polls, nobody knows what the outcome is yet, but what is beginning to emerge is that even those who did support Bolsonaro condemned the assault on the institutions, as well. Some of them have come out quite vocally to say that they’ve distanced themselves from what’s happened, as well. And, you know, Lula’s own, sort of, posturing as well, it’s not as though he wasn’t aware of the possibility that there was going to be some kind of real pushback against his victory.
I wouldn’t – I want – I don’t want to project already what’s going to go on our 2024 list, but Peru is an interesting one, and I would put Peru in a category along with Lebanon, but also Sri Lanka, and also Pakistan, of one of those countries in terms of the global ramifications of fallout from Ukraine in terms of commodities, in terms of food insecurity, and just in terms of the sheer economic impact on a number of countries as well. And I would also attach a number of countries that are now facing serious debt, a number of countries that we thought were going to be the bastions of economic growth in their regions are now suffering the knock-on effect of a hardened economic downturn, as well. And I – but, again, I don’t want to project what could possibly be on the list for 2024, but I think the Latin America region is one to watch, both in terms of the rise of left-wing rulers. And that’s not to say that those left-wing rulers will not have or follow the same playbook as we’ve seen some right, well, lean – right-leaning rulers in the region as well. I think we’ll see the same things there.
Dr Patricia Lewis
So, this is your trailer for next year’s report?
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah. Well, no, I wouldn’t go that far. To answer my – our friend at the back, I – there are some countries, some regions, where we do see hope, and as I said at the beginning, our methodology also includes those conflicts that we see opportunities for peace-making and those conflicts where we see the potential for peace, which is why Ethiopia and Yemen both appeared on our list last year and this year. If there is robust regional diplomacy, and if there’s very clear intention to try to secure a truce – there are bilateral conversations taking place right now between, for example, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen. Will that lead to a very clear intra-Yemen conversation that is necessary to happen? Can the SRSG, Grundberg, help accompany that? These are all big questions, but it’s one that we’re watching with some hope, even though the trendlines, also for war, are there, and I would say the same for Ethiopia, even though that’s just a very difficult one.
The UN question is a good one, it’s a big one, but – you know, and yes, peacekeeping is struggling. Peace-making is – all the key institutions are struggling, and the UN is part of that, you know. But it’s also been resilient and oftentimes, we take all these crisises to the UN because there’s still some idea that the UN is an important multilateral agency, despite how dysfunctional parts of it is. You know, the humanitarian agencies still play an important role, the development…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yeah.
Dr Comfort Ero
…still play an important role. So, I wouldn’t rule it out, but I also recognise the question that you’re asking and it’s an important one, as well.
Dr Patricia Lewis
So we are over time, but I am going to go to our two speakers. So, Shelley Deane can’t speak, unfortunately, which as you said, is a rarity, but she wanted to ask about “Can we identify newly discernible trends and tendencies in conflict escalation over the course of the Crisis Group?” Maybe that’s one for the future.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, for a future – hmmm hmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
And then, I’d like – and with connection with that, I’d like to go to Duff Mitchell, or Mitchell Duff, I’m not sure which way round that is, excuse me if I’ve got that wrong, but please, if you wouldn’t mind speaking and asking your question. You’re the last one.
Duff Mitchell
Yes, can you hear me? Can you hear me?
Dr Patricia Lewis
Yes.
Duff Mitchell
Okay, thank you.
Dr Patricia Lewis
We can.
Duff Mitchell
Yes, so it’s Duff Mitchell, Chatham House member, speaking to you from Canada. My question has to do with methodology for your list. With respect to conflict methodology, could the Crisis Group be undercounting conflicts when it focuses on individual conflicts, as opposed to cluster of conflicts? For example, while individual conflicts in Nigeria may not rise to the level of other individual conflicts elsewhere, would not the fact that there are multiple security threats throughout the country, with insecurity threatening the very viability of a state, require that the country be put on a watchlist? Thank you.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Thank you, and – indeed, and, you know, in other reports you’ve mentioned the Sahel for example…
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, yeah.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…as a region and…
Dr Comfort Ero
The one thing I would say, just in terms of methodology, is that the other thing that Crisis Group does is that we have this Ten Conflicts to Watch, it’s global. In a few weeks’ time we will issue “European Union Global Conflicts to Watch,” which are for the EU partners, and it goes back to a question that our friend at the back asked about lead nations, and these are ones that we think that the EU itself is in a good position to drive, as well. And then, we have another set of watchlists, but it’s for the Africa Union, where we believe that the Africa Union could play a role.
So, this is why I say that, you know, we have the Ten Conflicts, but there are other conflicts that we’re watching, and Nigeria for me, you know, elections this year, multiple security crisis, you said at your – the speaker himself said it very clearly, the fact that Nigeria is not on the list does not mean it’s not a – of concern to us in Crisis Group. And every single, you know, every single year we write on Nigeria, we don’t miss a beat on Nigeria, and in terms of the conflict trends, we’re living through them right now.
I think one of the big ones, the big megatrends that really transcend multiple borders, and I – here I will bring back the con – the climate security, is another one. But the other thing I would say, and I would like to leave on a slightly note of optimism, is that despite all of this, and we’ve talked – and Bronwen mentioned it herself yesterday about, you know, international institutions, is that one of the important things that has emerged is that, interestingly, we’ve all come back to multilateralism as a way out of some important crisises. And despite what we may say about the UN, it’s still become an important and vital centre, but other important vital centres, the G20, the G7, have become important factors because of the ascendancy of middle powers, like Brazil, like Turkey, like Saudi Arabia. They have become important players and we need to keep an eye on them as well. So…
Dr Patricia Lewis
Ah, well, Comfort, you didn’t disappoint. Yes, a tour de force, slightly over the hour, but I think – I have a sense that we could’ve gone on for longer with the questions, online as well as in the room. Thank you so much…
Dr Comfort Ero
Thank you, thank you so much.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…for putting yourself with these Ten Conflict to Watch. I think that we need to do an integration over the, like, the last five years and I would love to do a bit of analysis of what you got right, what you got wrong, and you know, what is still there…
Dr Comfort Ero
Yeah, exactly.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…that needs to keep on. But, you know, it’s such an important thing to do and that, you know, ability to be able to, sort of, put these ten conflicts down and make us think, is the most important thing. To make us think about what those are, the underlying trends, how we might solve them, because that’s a critical component.
Dr Comfort Ero
Yes, hmmm hmm, hmmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
So, thank you so much for coming again.
Dr Comfort Ero
Thank you. Thank you, hmmm.
Dr Patricia Lewis
Or rather, thanks Crisis Group for coming again and thank you for coming in your capacity now as CEO. So, really…
Dr Comfort Ero
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…brilliant, and please join me…
Dr Comfort Ero
Thank you.
Dr Patricia Lewis
…in thanking…
