Orysia Lutsevych
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Chatham House. My name is Orysia Lutsevych. I am the Head of Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, and we will be discussing, today, Russian war on Ukraine that was unleashed six days ago, in the early hours, by bombardment of Ukrainian cities. And I have three participants today joining directly from Ukraine, from different cities in Ukraine, that will outline what kind of war we are seeing on the ground right now, what has been Western response to this aggression so far, and what it is that Ukraine is expecting from the democratic world at this moment of the dark hour in Europe.
So, we will start with Oleksiy Melnyk, who is the Co-Director of Foreign Policy International Security at the Razumkov Centre. Oleksiy is an experienced security expert. He’s spent more than 20 years in Ukrainian armed forces, also served as the Advisor to the Minister of Defence. He will give us an overview. Then, we will be – we are joined by Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, who is the Member of Parliament from the European Solidarity Party, the Head of the Committee on European and Euro-Atlantic Integration. In the previous administration, she was the Vice Prime Minister on European and Euro-Atlantic integration. She’s been working very closely with the EU and NATO. And last, but not least, Dmytro Natalukha, who is the new Member of Parliament, came in on this wave of change with President Zelensky, from the Party of Servant of the People. He is the Head of the Economic Department – the Economic Committee in the Parliament of Ukraine. So, welcome to you all. Thanks so much for taking time. Without any further ado, I’ll pass the floor to Oleksiy Melnyk. Oleksiy.
Oleksiy Melnyk
Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for having me. Well, in my opinion, what we observe now is the combination of Russian – different Russian strategies or tactics applied earlier, quite successfully, in Crimea, in Donbas and in Syria. They’ve been applied consecutively and jointly, at the same time, because the expectations – according to the Russian plans and the information available, they had such expectations, or misinformation, that most of the Ukrainian forces will surrender and there will be no real resistance. Also, the parallels between Donbas, there’ve been numbers reported, like, thousands of saboteurs were deployed to Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, a few months om advance. And, by the way, in the village where I am, near Kyiv, there were also a couple of them captured. And finally, Syria, after the two previous tactics failed, I think what we saw last couple of days in Kharkiv, especially, this is what Russia, I don’t know whether it’s proper to say successfully, but this is what Russia used – the tactics that Russia used in Syria, or even early, in Chechnya.
Some people call these latest developments in Russian war fighting as ‘barbarian’, but I think there are more recent examples, like Leningrad siege during World War Two, and what the Germany Nazis did, actually we observe now in cities like Chernihiv. I spoke earlier this morning to my friends there. In Kharkiv, so, they cutting – encircling cities, cutting them from electricity supplies, water supplies and definitely, the civilians suffer most of all.
Next question that I was asked to cover is what – how can we support Ukrainian defence? Well, I think that until recently, we actually observed the – almost everything that’s – I mean, they did in, kind of, the Western support, the supplies of weapons, ammunition, and so on and so – at this point, I think that the main task is to secure regarding the restrictions to deliver by air, to secure this continuous supply for Ukrainian forces. And at the same time, I think one of the main test is to try to cut logistic chains for the Russian forces, because actually, this is what they have for – as the main problem and it is not the Putin’s order to stop advance, but the real logistics problem on the ground, as far as I know.
Something that I understand is not acceptable for the moment is the introduction of a no-fly zone, if not all over Ukraine, but at least partially, in some territories, like large cities, Kyiv, for instance. And of course, I know all the arguments why the United States cannot make such a decision, because of direct contact with the Russians, possible war, but I think that something that we consider it impossible, even couple of days ago, now we see possible, and my – in my opinion, there is still relevant responsibility of the international community to protect, not to protect Ukraine or Ukrainian military, but to protect civilians.
And, also, one more important issues, I think, is the nuclear threat. It’s a real, real threat. We know in Chern – what’s going on in Chernobyl. We know the potential nuclear disaster that could happen if Russians further advance and capture nuclear powerplants in Zaporizhzhia, in Mykolaiv. That’s something that the international community should address, first of all. And, also, I’m – I hope I’m wrong, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a limited nuclear strike if Putin is pushed into the corner and – I mean, yeah, no, that’s – I shouldn’t explain anymore, thank you.
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you, Oleksiy. I think you’ve underlined a very important point in the change of a military strategy based on the perseverance of Ukrainian armed forces and the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and buildings. We have seen the pictures of the Kharkiv Theatre destroyed and all – oh, I think more than 2,000 people already died in this war. I think that we will – we are, actually, at Chatham House, preparing and explaining on nuclear, and let’s all carefully measure what we think and what kind of conclusions we are making. So, our team is working on that, so be on the lookout on our website. Ivanna, over to you.
Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze
[Pause] Yes, hi, thank you very much for gathering this important conversation today. Well, I definitely would like to start from thanking the international community and Britain, for that matter, what you are doing in this particular moment. But here, my – maybe my gratitude is almost over, because I think if we are here talking, in the Chatham House, I think I can be pretty direct and I think that we have to finally call a spade a spade.
You know, just – I probably will repeat something that I said earlier, that if the West has provided to US – to Ukraine at least a fraction of what it is being provided in this particular moment, and action that is being in this particular moment, you know, if we were talking back in 2014, when it was the first attack launched against Ukraine in this particular moment, and when the aggression was first launched against Ukraine, we wouldn’t have been here, where we are today. Because years of so-called diplomacy, not provoking Russia, years of appeasement of the aggressor, of not freezing financial assets of oligarchs, of inviting and welcoming additional financial resources to the West from the Russian Federation, actually has been inviting, further, Putin to start his greatest, most brutal, barbaric disaster, as inhumane attack since the end of the Second World War.
So, now, all the costs – from my perspective now, all the costs of war are expotentially [means exponentially] much greater than they could have been if we have taken action earlier. But probably, all these critical mistake and all these disastrous miscalculations that have been made earlier, will be assessed after the war, at some point will be over, and now we have to prioritise on what is going on in this particular moment and what we can do about this right now. And there are obviously priority urgent goals and to – there are strategic important tasks that we all have to address, from my perspective.
Just maybe to a little bit add to – or what Oleksiy was saying, laying the ground. He was talking more on the militarially level – military level and I would just say that, you know, our cities, our peaceful, beautiful democratic cities, with a nation that wanted to get back to the European family, are being bombarded, are being shelled from multiple rocket launch systems, are being full of subversive sabotage groups, of Paratroopers, of military vehicles, tanks and other type of military munition. And those tanks and military vehicles are putting on white flags and going across our villages and cities and killing and shooting directly at our people. So, you’ve seen the pictures of major cities being shelled. Major cities are being encircled. People are not letting out – not let out from these cities. Like, for example, today, from Kherson, we cannot get anyone out because they are not allowing to, and at this moment, we do not see the readiness of the international community to actually engage in helping us to provide for green humanitarian corridors to evacuate kids and women from those cities that are being encircled and that are being bombarded, and to arrange for water and food to be brought into these cities. Like cities of, like, Chernihiv, cities like Sumy, cities like Kharkiv, Kyiv, Kherson, again, and so on and so on.
So, the situation is drastically deteriorating, but what we see, Ukrainian people are showing incredible, unbelievable courage, readiness to mobilise, readiness to help to each other. They are lining up to territorial defence, they are lining up to volunteer, they are lining up to help internally displaced peoples – people and to help the – those residents that are trying, also, to flee as refugees.
I will say something not comfortable to probably – to hear, but I am appalled by the decision of the Home Secretary of the UK not to grant visa vaiver – visa waiver to Ukrainian citizens who are fleeing the war. I think that bureaucracy right now – there is no place for bureaucracy. There is – time is – time means lives of Ukrainian citizens. Time means an urgent action, means saved future for particular people that could thrive and that could live on and then pay back to Putin, that has started this war.
I think everybody finally has understood that there is no rationality in the decisions of this madman that has taken the decision to attack non-provokely – in non-provoked way, Ukrainian state, and I think it’s already clear to everybody that is the closest aim, and I’m saying – I’m underlying – underlining, its closest aim, it’s not the final aim, is to erase from the world map Ukraine as a state, is to wipe us – to wipe up Ukrainians, as a nation, from the – from this world scenery, as such. So, it’s a continuation of all those polities – policies that Soviet Union, at some point had towards Ukrainians, like, for example, using Great Famine against Ukrainians to suppress our resistance. Now the same is being done at this particular moment.
So, our armed forces are fighting forcefully. Our people are organised and mobilised. It’s straight – it’s a bit obviously tense and it’s, psychologically, very difficult, but at this particular moment, I think, from the urgent needs, what needs to be done, a massive, massive military support to Ukraine. Anything from air defence, MANPADS, anti-tank rockets, to helmets, body armour, fuel, to arm, not only Ukrainian armed forces, but to arm the territorial defence. People are ready to fight for their land and that’s, yet again, another miscalculation, but I will say something, again, not very pleasant, it’s miscalculation not only of Putin, I think it’s miscalculation of the West. I don’t think that anybody was expecting that Ukrainians will be standing so strong and ready, barehandedly, defend their land, their cities and their villages. So, that’s the first thing.
Putin is conducting genocide against Ukraine. So, you can further spearhead your further sanctions. If we had the pre-emptive sanctions, we would have been much better off. We were begging for pre-emptive sanctions when you were seeing the possibility of Russian attack. So, we are couple of steps behind, unfortunately, of the actions of Putin, we, as the whole West and we, as the whole Free World. So, right now, sanctions have to be increased. I am surprised that there is no action from the international financial institutions. IMF and World Bank, why not to expel Russia from those organisations and free all – freeze all the assets, both governmental and oligarchic assets? I would like to see kids of Lavrov, oligarchs, Shoygu, all of those, Patrushev, whoever, Naryshkin and so on, being kicked out, back to – home to Russia, from all those nice cosy places where they are staying, lear – living, studying and so on. I think it’s – you can immediately do that.
I want to ensure you that, you know, that we are not – we are staying in shelters. We are staying in – under bombardments and I think if you critically assess the situation, you will understand that on your action, it depends whether your citizens will be actually also staying in shelters, will be also hiding from the war, because Putin will not end in Ukraine. Putin will be moving further and therefore, whatever could be done, embargo on oil and gas buying from Russian Federation, you can just open up all your fantasy and work as soon as possible. And I hope that one day, Putin will be under tribunal and will be prosecuted for war crimes and for crimes against humanity and moreover, the closest aim is also to announce, and to ensure, that Russian Federation is recognised as a country that is sponsoring terrorism. That should empower you to take another suppressive action against Russian Federation. It is the end of Russian Empire. It’s not the end of Ukraine, and I hope that by the end of this war, Russia will be divided in national states, because otherwise, it’s either Stalin or Putin or someone else with some last name, but – who will be waging yet another war, against, not only closest neighbours and partners, but also against the whole world. Thank you.
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you. Ivanna, I think you really capture the mood in Ukraine, and I think there’s a clear understanding that if Russia stops fighting, there may be no war, but if Ukraine stopped fighting, there will be no Ukraine. And there, I would even say if Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no peaceful Europe, because no territory, in the reach of Russian missiles and those ballistic missiles that are now being stationed in Belarus, will be safe and honestly, the nuclear threat is not directly against Ukraine. I think it’s against, well, the NATO and Western coalition that is supporting Ukraine. So, this is just as a footnote to what you have said.
So, I’ll move now to Dmytro. Dmytro is – really understands economy a lot and could also help all of us to see how we can further cripple Putin’s regime.
Dmytro Natalukha
Hi, hi, Orysia and other colleagues. Thank you very much for this. Thank you for having me. So, the thing is that, of course, the sanctions are painful and I think that the main aim of the sanctions is to make the Russians understand that something is wrong with this idea, with the whole strategy and with the actions of the leadership. Because without even having a war in their territory, they shall feel the consequences of illegal actions of their President and unite in their – in the willing to stop him.
So, what is going on? Everybody knows about the potential block on the Federal Reser – on the Russian reserves. It’s like $630 billion. If I’m not mistaking, the price of Sberbank shares has fallen already by 91%. The value of the ruble is going down. So, it has this, kind of, a push and people start to wonder what the hell is going on, because officially, Russia is not in war and there is nothing going on, on their territory, for now. But unfortunately, that is enough. You just can’t imagine how zombified are those people. That is something incredible, because we have launched, also, a team of, you know, of cyberwarfare and we’re targeting, very precisely, specifically, individually, people that we find in the web who are related to those soldiers who either died or got injured in the Ukraine, Russian soldiers. And we’re contacting their relatives and trying to start a dialogue and everything we hear is demassification. So, they truly believe, and I don’t know what to do with it, to be honest, that this kind of, how to call it, demilitarisation operation that Putin started is justified, because we’re Nazis here.
And I’m afraid that in these terms, economic sanctions are not something that might stop a tyrant in this war. So, tyrants are being stopped in the battlefield. They’re not being stopped in the economy, unfortunately. Specifically, such a madman with a lot of complexes as Putin, because you should understand what it means for him if he will lose. I mean, that is the end of everything, everything he ever created, everything he ever dreamt of, everything he has built about the Russia, its new image, its new, you know, public image and stuff like that. So, for him, it’s also a matter of, how can I say it, of survival, as well, because he – in some terms, he started this war being absolutely sure that Ukraine will break in, like, 24 max, or 48 hours, and it – this is going to be an easy win. And Europe would not touch him, because he has a nuclear arse – poten – arsenal, right? And this is also the thing why Europe has been so hesitant, in terms of addressing the threat from Putin.
But the problem is that, while being sure that provoking Putin by helping Ukraine overtly with their arms, they are – they’re trying to escape the Third World War, they do not understand it has started, de facto, and we are just the first blow. We have been talking and discussing about this at the Munich Security Conference, that if Putin succeeds, the next aim would be a land corridor to Königsberg region, to Kaliningrad Oblast, and the problem is that by that time, Putin will still be there, the nuclear arm – arsenal will still be there and, Russia, if it will understand that they are unpunishable and they can do whatever they want, I don’t see no reason why they wouldn’t try to, you know, to start an act on aggression, even on a NATO member, because what is the main difference? Because the main deterrent should be the nuclear weapon and for that reason, Ivanka [means Ivanna] was absolutely right, Ukraine is by no means the last destination.
Ukraine is just a pivotal moment to understand what can he do with Europe and the world? Because, basically, this guy keeps the whole civilised world in hostage right now, by having a nuclear arm and that’s why he thinks that he will get away with it, because nobody will touch him, so he can do whatever he wants. If we let him win, if you let – if we will let him get away with it, it means that he’s right. It means that the whole world will dance under the Putin’s tune and that is the reason why we cannot simply let Ukraine fall, why we cannot simply let Kyiv fall, because as I just said, this is just the beginning, and if anybody has any illusions that the Third World War has not started yet, I’m very sorry, guys, but you’re wrong. Here we are, it is it right now, because just in the event if Ukraine falls, this will mean that you’re helpless, and for Putin to understand that someone is helpless means to select him as the next target. This is as simple as that.
So, for this reason, what we need is a no-fly zone, at least over Kyiv, because we need to keep the capital. I understand that there’s speculations about possible provocation. Okay, do it like this, provide the NATO aeroplanes to countries who are not members of the NATO. We will find the pilots who are willing to pilot them. We’ll find the relevant aces, but please send those aeroplanes in Ukraine and provide the no-flight zone, assist our air forces. That’s the thing number one. Thing number two, close all the maritime ports to Russia. We need to put more pressure and more economic pressure on Russian economy, and closing all the ports would be another very strong blow on the Russian economic machine.
Third, stop all the import of Russian goods, whatever goods you have, anything, starting from food, ending with coal, oil, gas, anything. Russian products should be marked as something unacceptable in any civilised country of the world, because when you’re purchasing those goods, you’re financing terrorists. You’re financing people who are shelling bombs over civilians. You are fighting – you are financing people who are using vacuum bombs over residential quarters. A vacuum bomb, I just remind you, that is an act of criminal – of war – this is a war criminal act.
So, these three points: block the ports, no-flight zone of Kyiv, at least, if not over Ukraine, and ban all Russian import, is the next expected step that we expect from Europe and from our allies to take. And of course, please send arms now. We need more arms, we need more helmets, we need more bulletproof vests. We need anything you have, because as I just said, this is not about Ukraine anymore. This is much bigger than us. This is even much bigger than you guys. This is about the whole continent, actually. Thank you.
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you, Dmytro, and it’s important to think about, also, Balkans as the region where Russia stretches its CEE interests. We are talking about Baltic states, and we forget if Russia is thinking in its new imperial terms, Balkans was also traditionally Russia’s sphere of influence. Also, it’s interesting to – I mean, it’s important to think who will support Russia at this point? At this stage, we have some countries abstaining in the UN General Assembly, but we don’t see any country, actually, in support of Russian military operation, and Belarus, we do not consider, is an independent country anymore. It’s, basically, a military base of Russian Federation. So, that also shows you the balance of power and that should also give confidence, in a way of how unity of the world holds around Ukraine.
I will now move to questions, because there are quite a lot of them, and then, maybe chip in a couple of my own ideas as to what should be done in the immediate term. But there is a question related to – I mean, we’ve heard a lot from you the plea to support Ukrainian armed forces, to be that shield of Europe. There is an idea to set up an International Defences Systems Fund of Ukraine, the kind of land lease type instrument that would sustain funding for Ukraine the way United States did for the UK during the Second World War. Oleksiy, maybe you can say a little bit if there is that resolve to support. I mean, how critical it is that it should be there? How it can be delivered, because we, for example, we’ve heard Hungary blocking transits through its territory for Ukraine? And there’s a question from Damian, apologies, the last name, could not read, “Does Ukraine have enough heavy weapons and air support for the next few days to resist the initial advance on Kyiv, and what is your estimates of how strong is Kyiv’s defence?”
Oleksiy Melnyk
Oh, let – first of all, despite my military background and my knowledge, I’m now just a civilian, so I have quite limited information. Even if I knew, for many understandable reason, I will not discover, but I don’t have this information. What I have is that the real need for what been mentioned already, for fighting this – the equipment and protection equipment and lethal weapons for fighting these kind of conflict – combat, delivery is very important issue, because most of the airfields been bombed. By the way, this morning, also, one of airfields that I used to serve at, Uman, was struck by cruise missiles. So, there is a problem of delivery by air. Therefore, and we come back, again, to the issue of the no-fly zone, at least for some parts of Ukraine and, also, land routes, if Hungary will probably – say Hungary thank you later on, but now Hung – not – there is some problem with Hungary. There are other friendly countries. There is no route through the Black Sea, but regarding the wea – types of weapons, I think that while we need to – aircraft, we need to – air defence systems, but it will take times, like weeks or months, at least. Now we have to make a priority for what’s really needed, can be delivered fast and to the frontline directly.
Orysia Lutsevych
And just to add to the more military question from Nicholas McLean, he is asking about these long columns that we are seeing from satellites, heading to Kyiv. He’s asking, “Are not the long Russian columns heading for Kyiv vulnerable to attack from the flanks, both by the regular Ukrainian Army and by guerrillas? Russia must be suffering from long and, therefore, weak lines of communication.”
Oleksiy Melnyk
You’re absolutely right. This is an easy target. The problem is that if you look at a map of Ukraine and Ukraine is strong militarily, Ukraine has citizens eager to fight to defend the country, but Ukraine is attacked from the three directions. So, you simply can’t address all the issues at the same time. There is heavy fighting on the South, on the East and in the North from Ukraine, and the Russian troops already on the suburbs of Kyiv. So, it’s simply a matter of resources of combat capabilities, because again, don’t forget that the Russian military superiority regarding the number of aircraft, manpower, is still not in favour of Ukraine.
Orysia Lutsevych
That’s clear. Dmytro, maybe I’ll bring you in, because there’s a question from Dominique specifically, that says, obviously, that “You are right about Putin’s aim to create a land corridor to Kaliningrad via the Suwalki Gap. Should NATO be bolstering its defences in the Baltic states and what sort of plans, and in what quality, does he think is needed? Is a no-fly zone actually achievable, given the proximity to Russia, no matter where the excess come from?”
Dmytro Natalukha
Yes, I mean, those were like fairy tales, the stories about the land corridor to Kaliningrad. But after – I mean, I have written a large article regarding this and regarding potential sanctions, and I was sure that nobody will take it seriously. But then we arrived in Munich, and at the Security Conference, everybody was dead serious about it. So – and this will be the next challenge, this will be the next challenge and this will be the challenge for NATO, and if NATO thinks, and if somebody thinks, again, that this challenge will – cannot be addressed and Putin would not dare, my question is why wouldn’t he? What will change? Only because you’re, I don’t know – the Baltics are members of NATO. So what?
Putin is sure that until he has this nuclear arm – nuclear arms, he is untouchable, and we see that kind of attitude and this kind of attitude has always been there, and the situation with Ukraine is simply like a mere confirmation of this attitude. He thinks that he can fool the whole world by introducing his troops from the Republic of Belarusia and then, by instructing his soldiers to tell everybody when they get caught that they were at – doing some training stuff and they didn’t know that they were in the middle of Ukraine. So, he’s making fool of the world. He is, literally, taking the world into hostage of his absolutely mad plans, while, you know, openly threatening everybody with this nuclear weapon.
So, a no-flight zone, I think would be a very bold move for NATO to show that they are ready to respond, and if you don’t want to do it through NATO, again, my option is to provide the jets, the air fighters to – the aeroplanes, to non-NATO countries, such as Sweden, Finland, Austria, other countries and to introduce them into the Ukrainian sky. And let’s see what happens then, ‘cause that would be a real test, because sooner or later, you will have to do it anyway, believe me. If he will launch an offensive on Kaliningrad, you will have to do it and you will have to raise your jets in the sky and try to deter him. But again, nothing will be different from the situation you are in now. So, you will have the very same thing going on. The only exception would be that the Baltics will be the NATO state. But still, the nuclear threat will be there and everything else will be there, so my question would be why wouldn’t he try to do it if he will see that the response for his actions in Ukraine is weak?
Orysia Lutsevych
Yeah, I think you are making a very strong point for their – that it’s not just Ukraine that is in the existential threat. That Putin is after reshaping, or destroying, what is left of the World Order and that is the clear aim and to, basically, plunge the continent into chaos, where he may get some advantage, mostly personally, not necessarily in the interest of Russian citizens and of Russia.
I’m happy Ivanna managed to plug in, so I’m quickly going to ask her a question, because this is something that connects to what Oleksiy said about the right to protect and where we are in the new phase, where there will be huge civilian casualties and possible humanitarian disaster that is unvolving [means evolving]. Sirus is saying, “Ivanna mentioned the use, and potential abuse, of the white flags in battle. This is a shocking story that came early hours this morning. Could any of the speakers comment on the humanitarian situation? What is the role of the Red Cross, the IFRC, in this conflict and what are the humanitarian needs of the remaining population? Have the integrity of symbols, such as Red Cross, been retained or violated?” Ivanna.
Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze
Yes, thank you very much. Let me just – with a couple of points to reinforce what Dmytro was saying. I totally agree that everybody’s – the West is very cautious with regard to any possibility to introducing the no-fly zone, but I think that that’s the only possibility, at this particular moment, to revert the situation, and that’s probably the only possibility how we can ensure that lives are being saved. And maybe the first step could be the air lift corridor or the no-fly zone that – on the capital cities that Dmytro was suggesting. But I think that all the thinking has to be included, in terms of whatever could be ensured in this particular moment.
Also, we didn’t talk much about that, but the ecological catastrophe has expotential [means exponential] – is expotentially [means exponentially] growing and that is something that, you know, Putin doesn’t even need to use the nuclear weapons. His flights – his aeroplanes are flying over Chernobyl zone and are, from there, targeting our Ukrainian cities. So, we cannot fight back, because we are cautious and we are wary of this situation, how the – that could lead to the ecological disaster if we hit the nuclear power station by protecting ourselves. So, the nuclear threat and the nuclear risk is much closer than Putin using the nuclear weapons as such. So, we have to understand that this – these points.
With regard to humanitarian situation, it is, unfortunately, deteriorating every single hour. The – there are a couple of things. A lot of aid is being gathered by volunteers. Some – a lot of aid is also coming by governmental channels, from the Western part of our borders. However, also, you know, there are limitations there to what we can – how quickly we can process it, even physically, just letting everything in and how quickly it could be delivered to other cities in Ukraine. At this particular moment, Red Cross has not stepped in yet, as we’re hearing that there are some movements inside, so there are some decisions being taken, but at this particular moment, we do not have Red Cross unrolling its operation in full scale on the territory of Ukraine. And if that decision could be pushed for as soon as possible, that’s something that you can also do. That’s where we stand.
With the, you know, city of Kyiv, there is shortage of water, shortage of food, so – shortage of basic medicine, as well, but we cannot arrange for delivery there in needed numbers. The same situation is with Kharkiv, the same situation is with Sumy, the same situation is with Chernihiv and with Kherson, as I said. With – so, unfortunately, you know, people – in some places, people are without electricity, in some – so, without heat. The weather conditions are not positive, it’s cold. Winter kicked in on the 1st of March, as opposed to spring, on many territories and that is creating a much more difficult situation for people on the ground. That’s where we are.
Orysia Lutsevych
Okay, let’s take…
Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze
Situation.
Orysia Lutsevych
Let’s take a few more questions. We’ll just – I grouped them from the Q&A chat. So, on – two specific questions on, perhaps, military, to Oleksiy. “Do you think if there are orders for Russian armed forces to fire at Kyiv, they will? Could we expect any dissent within the Russian military?” And then, again, there’s a question about these “convoys approaching Kyiv, why they are not being attacked at this point?”
Oleksiy Melnyk
Well, I think I answer the question about these military convoys, because we think we do not have – I think we simply do not have such capabilities, because Russia is – controls an airspace, not completely, but Russia controls the airspace, so this – for air power. And you know how long the column is and it’s near the Belarusian border where – from which Russia can actually fire these anti-aircraft missiles. And Orysia, was – what was…
Orysia Lutsevych
The other question…
Oleksiy Melnyk
…the question?
Orysia Lutsevych
…was what about possible defection within Russian military, how do you assess that, likely?
Oleksiy Melnyk
Oh, well, defection, there’ve been some cases and there are some shortages, and I really don’t know, because of course, it seems like Russians – Russian military, most of them, are being surprised. They’ve been fooled by their Commanders, but what are, the next day, going to do? I don’t know. There are actually – we talk about soldiers, I mean, we – infantry, but if you talk about pilots, so this person who dropped bombs yesterday on Kharkiv, he definitely knew what he was doing. It’s hard to explain, I mean, what kind of motivation this person is supposed to have, and the previous speaker was talking about this zombie massification and demassification and these kind of things. And let me just make a point about a possibility of using aircrafts – foreign aircraft from the Ukrainian soil. It’s actually getting more difficult, because airfield in one of the main targets and it’s still under attack. So, we should consider, seriously, about neighbouring countries.
And one, just very last point. If you really think seriously about shutting down Russian aggressive air power, please do what you done with the MANPADS and with the anti-tank missiles. If you want to use these anti-tank missiles and against Russian tanks, this is the proper way to do it, give it to Ukrainians.
Orysia Lutsevych
Sorry, I muted myself. So, I’ll bring Ivanna and Dmytro, I want you – because, you know, I mean, I think you are representing different political parties, you are. I want to hear your view on talks, because there’s a lot of hope, especially in the West, that these talks will quickly end war, that there will be a sudden resolution coming out of it. How do you see this playing out? And maybe, Ivanna, with your experience so much, your understanding of international affairs and diplomacy, you can comment on China specifically here. But first, on talks, there will be another set of talks today from – I understand from one of the questions. Is that true, or do you have this information?
Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze
[Pause] You know, I – to be very sincere, I’m not expecting anything from these particular rounds of talks with the Russian Federation. If we can expect something, that could be some very – maybe agreements on non-selling of the civilian territories, of the residential buildings. But as we are speaking, you know, people are writing to us all these messages, just new information that a hospital was targeted in Kharkiv, a maternity house in some other city. So, I mean, that’s probably something, you know, this critical infrastructure, but a magical infrastructure, if that could be saved, or something of that type that could be the [audio cuts out – 49:26]…
Orysia Lutsevych
I think you’ve been disrupted a bit. So, maybe we’ll bring in Dmytro while Ivanna reconnects. And what was striking yesterday that as Ukrainian delegation was at these negotiations, Kharkiv was shelled. I mean, we all know, in international conflicts, that the first step to a real peace negotiation is the ceasefire that has to halt, at least during the time when the sides are talking at the table. But that, clearly, is not how Russia conducts talks.
Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze
May I continue? I’m sorry, the – I’m being kicked out…
Orysia Lutsevych
Go ahead, go ahead.
Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze
…from the connection. You know, we have our own experience of holding previous talks with the Russian Federation and we remember very well when Minsk II was happening and when Debaltseve was shelled, and when there was agreement that from this particular hour on that particular day, there will be a ceasefire, and from then – and that was not honoured in any way by the Russian Federation. So, that’s why I do not believe any single sheet of paper on which Russian Federation is even putting its signature, not to mention the promises or the lies that they are – they have been pressing on the whole world. All this communication that you’ve seen with Macron or Scholz, all this diplomatic work that was ongoing during, what was it, January and February of this year, it led to nowhere and Putin was just getting prepared to do what he already has decided to do.
So, therefore, I do not think that our bilateral talks will lead to any resolution of this conflict. I think the talks – the – this war will be ended with the talks when Russia is capitulating on one side and Ukraine standing together with, first and foremost, and I wanted to remind you colleagues, also, first and foremost, other signatories of the Budapest Memorandum and, also, all the free nations of the world who care about the rules, procedures, order, responsibility and all of those values that have been preached for so many years.
And I wanted just to, kind of, sum up with saying I remember this Churchill phrase, it’s during the Second World War, that “It’s not enough to do our best. We have to do what’s required.” So, a massive action against Russian Federation is required and a massive mobilisation of those countries that are still pretending to stay neutral. You know, I appreciate what Switzerland, the other day, did. It’s first time since 1815 that they actually have violated their neutrality by freezing Russian assets. So, maybe it’s the time of that type of action, when you are giving up on usual practices, when the usual procedures are actually being, kind of, put aside and a totally different, as I said, very spearheaded approach, is being used to this urgent need. Because I do also agree with Dmytro, and I disagree with Biden. I do believe that, unfortunately, Putin has already started the World War Three and we are all in the same boat, and we either fight back now, with the least casualties we can get altogether, or we will have millions of people suffering, getting killed, getting wounded, losing their homes and fleeing across, not only Europe, but it will spill over to the whole world.
With regard to China, it’s difficult to comment, but obviously, China is looking very closely how the world is reacting to the deeds of Putin and if it sees any weakness, any weakest link in this action against Putin at this moment, definitely, China will be using this as a precedent to solve those tasks that it has been putting in front of itself in the other regions of the world.
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you, Ivanna. Dmytro, over to you.
Dmytro Natalukha
Thank you. I’m not sure that there is something left to add. I totally agree with Ivanna. She said it all, basically. So, this is truly a pivotal moment, and we should understand that, and everybody should understand, that there is a – I mean, everything is so clear to me and, I hope, to everyone else, that any hesitation is an act of, you know, of – I don’t want to offend anyone. So, yeah, we are very thank you – we’re really thankful for your support and we ask you to join this fight and join this battle. The whole Munich Security Conference was about this war being not a clash of ideologies, like there was during the Cold War, right, capitalism against communism. No, this is a different clash. This is a clash between a free world against an uncivilised, barbaric tyrant and this is the clash among the world we really want to live in, the values we want to share, and the freedoms we want to enjoy, against being, basically, confined in a jail that is a state of Russian Federation today. And I want to say to any Russian who is listening to me right now, you are all killers, because your silent consent made this real, made this possible, and until Putin is stopped and until he’s not liquidated, or until he’s not put in jail, until this is going on, you are all killers. You’re a nation of killers, and I ask everybody to spit in the face of every Russian who he sees somewhere in the street, in the hotel, anywhere, because that is a nation of barbarians and a nation of killers. Russians are killers, thank you.
Orysia Lutsevych
Thank you. Oleksiy, yeah, go ahead. You have to unmute yourself, because we cannot hear you.
Oleksiy Melnyk
Can you hear?
Orysia Lutsevych
Yeah, now. Speak, yes.
Oleksiy Melnyk
Okay, can you hear?
Orysia Lutsevych
Speak up, the connection is…
Oleksiy Melnyk
Yeah, a couple of thoughts about this. Please don’t say Russians you are not our enemy. 90% of the Russians celebrated the Crimea annexation and one of the public opinion polls just couple of weeks ago, more than 50% of the Russians supported these military operations against Ukraine. So, please don’t make these mistakes. There are very few Russians who are very – who are really good people and honest, but don’t say to all the Russians are not enemy.
Orysia Lutsevych
Yeah, I think it’s very important point, in a way, but it’s very hard to keep, of course, the cold mind and heart calm when you see these atrocities that are being unleashed on Ukrainian soil. I think that Russians, in a way, are not fully aware what is going on. I think the fact that Ukrainians are allowing Russian captive soldiers to call their parents to tell them what is going on, it’s important. But I want not to spare this time, three minutes, that I have, just to say that there is concrete things that the UK can do and because we have a UK audience, primarily, here, I think you’ve heard what is necessary and required to defend Ukraine and Kyiv, and specifically related on humanitarian side, of a visa waiver. Ukrainians can travel to European Union without passports, without visa. There is no reason why this should not be the case of the UK at the time of dire straits.
I think that it’s a disgrace, honestly, at this point, that US sanctions are – have a one-month grate period – grace period and I hope this will be remedied very soon, even what Putin’s doing on the ground. I mean, I think that top 100 Russian oligarchs have to be blanket banned and sanctioned, not just a few of them, and I think the export controls on the technology and other electronics have to be introduced. I think that we have to understand that there is still a chance we could all back up Ukraine, and I think that the fact that Ukraine is showing this courage, is showing total mobilisation of the society, total mobilisation of business and political class, it shows you that the Putin surrender plan did not work. So, we, are at the moment of a very vicious military war and I would say that we have to support the victim as much as we’re inflicting the cost on the aggressor. And honestly, there are various ways to help, to participate, because I think there is quite strong feeling in Ukraine that indifference means complacency and support of this aggression.
So, I think I would like to thank, really, to our Ukrainian speakers for having strength to come and speak, for having courage to say those important words to the world, for being where you are and doing what you are best at, to hold the defence of Europe. So, be careful, take care of yourselves and stay in touch with us, and I think everything will be Ukraine. Take good care. Thank you very much…
Oleksiy Melnyk
And you.
Orysia Lutsevych
…for joining.
Oleksiy Melnyk
We will prevail. Thank you, bye.
