Dr Renata Dwan
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for joining us today for our weekly events on the War in Ukraine. We’re in the second month of the conflict that began on the 24th of February with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and in that time, we’ve seen the humanitarian needs scale up to a level that is qualitatively new, in terms of scale and depth for Europe and that – at levels we haven’t seen since the Second World War.
According to the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Assistance, some 12 million people are in need in and around Ukraine and of that 12 million, UN agencies has been able to reach 2.1 million, which gives you some sense of the scale of needs on the ground and the challenges of providing lifesaving assistance to those most in need.
We have seen high levels of reported civilian casualties, but it’s been very difficult to ascertain fully figures and details. Current UN reporting talks about nearly 4,000 civilian casualties, as a result of the hostilities on the ground, but of course, they differ. It’s very hard to get concrete details and, indeed, the Mayor of Mariupol, one of the cities, most under attack, estimates 5,000 civilians have been killed.
In that very serious context, I’m delighted that we are joined by such an esteemed panel of perspectives from people working on the provision of humanitarian and urgent lifesaving assistance to people caught in conflict in Ukraine. We’re joined by Gillian Triggs, who is the Assistant High Commissioner for Protection at the UN High Commissioner of Refugees. Gillian is taking care of all protection needs and, as a British-Australian national, was previously President of the Australian Human Rights Commission. So, she’s overseen work on protection and refugees, asylum seekers and those forcibly displaced.
We’re also joined by Corinne Fleischer, who is the Regional Director of the Middle East, Northern Africa and Eastern Europe at the World Food Programme and she’s currently directing the corporate response of WFP for Ukraine.
Finally, but by no means least, we’re joined by Victor Liakh from the – President of the East Europe Foundation in Ukraine. The East European Foundation is a civil society organisation promoting social and economic development in Ukraine and Victor has particular focus on working with youth and children’s wellbeing. So, obviously, a key insight and perspective from the ground that we’re delighted to be joined by you today, Victor.
Before we turn to our panellists, let me just flag that today’s discussion is on the record and is being recorded. We will be posting the recording, as always, on our website later today. I’m also pleased to note that we’ll be delighted to take questions and comments and welcome your participation in today’s events. Please do submit your questions throughout the event, using the Q&A function. Don’t please submit questions through the chat or the raising hands. We’ll try to cover it and get to your questions as fast as we can through the Q&A function. Very much welcoming and looking forward to the discussion today.
So, I’m going to turn now, first, to Gillian, to offer some brief opening remarks on the situation on the ground, where the areas of greatest needs are and what is being done by aid agencies and what needs to be done and how can we support. Gillian, delighted to have you with us and over to you.
Gillian Triggs
Thank you very much, Renata, and you have, of course, set out the questions very clearly. It’s a huge pleasure for me to be part of a Chatham House discussion on this really very, very important question of protection. You’ve listed the numbers. We calculate that there are nearly 18 million people outside Ukraine, or within Ukraine, who, in one way or another, need international protection. The numbers are huge and while the word is often overused, this is genuinely unprecedented, in a time, of course, when we, rather ironically, are celebrating the 70th anniversary of the Refugee Convention itself, dealing at that time with two million displaced people in Europe. Today we’re dealing with at least 85, probably many more million people displaced.
But perhaps a point that needs to be added to the, sort of, factual environment, because you don’t need it to be described by me, I think everybody’s very well aware, but something that I think we really need to emphasise is that 90% of those who are refugees who are leaving the country, and that’s about 4.3 million, are women and children, and that really does create, for us, the – one of the key protection questions as to how we protect particularly vulnerable people in this context.
But you’ve asked, first of all, what are the immediate needs in response to the situation in Ukraine itself? And the answer to that is that, of course, we are, first and foremost, an emergency humanitarian body and so, the kind of things that we do are very basic. It’s shelter, it can be plastic sheets, mattresses, blankets, containers to hold water, cooking utensils, hygiene kits, critically important, particularly as this war continues.
So, the first, sort of, things that we try to do is to provide emergency support, but as time goes on, we start to move to the wider protection questions, establishing transit centres, establishing protection monitoring, and particularly with regard to sexual-based violence, to trafficking, which we’re hearing a lot of. Psychosocial support, helping the women who are now increasingly reporting, as you will know from the media, increasingly reporting rapes, sexual assaults, where they’re able to.
So, there’s the psychosocial support, there’s mobilisation of community groups to support the internally displaced, something in the order of 7.1 million within Ukraine itself, and that’s probably the biggest single challenge of supporting those wherever they are. So, although we have had offices in Ukraine, in the Donbas region, for 30 years, we have maintained those offices, despite the attacks, but we’re also moving our operational colleagues through Western Ukraine and Central Ukraine.
So, we’re trying to cover the area, but it’s a massive task, but of course, then, having got through those stages, we, of course, are ensuring and are setting up cash-based assistance. So, that’s very practical. It can help buy food; it gives people the ability to make their own choices about how they respond to protection needs. So, they’re, broadly speaking, what we’re doing. In the context of Ukraine itself, UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, leads the protection cluster, but also the shelter, non-food items and camp co-ordination areas. So, that’s the kind of work that we’re trying to do to build it up.
With regard to how we do it, we do nothing without our partners. Our partners are absolutely crucial, and we know, indeed, from COVID, that we can be most effective when we’re working at the community level. That’s where people know where the problems are, how best to address them and we work as closely as we can with those local authorities, with volunteers, with municipal authorities, Mayors, local governments are often the one that actually carry the day-to-day burden and we work with them as much as we can. So, we’re hoping to do all of those things, in particular, scaling up the cash assistance, which is, in practical terms, among the most useful.
Outside Ukraine, we’re working, of course, with sovereign nations, who are, in many cases, able to provide the support themselves, but many are not. We’re particularly working on protection monitoring at the border crossing points, but it has to be observed that many people are now moved on from those border crossing points. They’ve moved through transit countries, Moldova with air flights and transfers out, and we are now working on that diaspora of refugees across Europe and in particular, I should mention the Blue Dot service centres, which I think are very identifiable, and we do it jointly with UNICEF, and we’ve done this for many years. It’s a very effective way of delivering services, information, safe places, particularly for women and children and that’s a key part of what we’re doing in that part of the world.
To answer the last question, the short and long-term implications, short-term, we see, again, shelter and protection, protection for critically vulnerable people, both within Ukraine and across the border and into Europe. But we imagine that – of course, I should say that while we can – we could cite numbers, we don’t have a lot of data on trafficking, on sexual abuse, on the needs of children. We just don’t have the data that normally we would prefer to work with, but I think we’re making more than educated guesses.
So, for the short-term, it will be continuation of those protection/shelter issues, cash-based interventions and access to food, where possible, but also, rebuilding – refurbishing buildings and ensuring that accommodation is available for IDPs in rural areas. And there’s much to talk about, about that because Poland, for example, with more than 2½ million, has centralised, they don’t have post offices and banks and support services in rural areas. So, it’s a phenomenon globally, but an element that we can talk about.
Perhaps I could finish by saying that one of the things that’s been most important has been the European Union’s Temporary Protection Directive, which amplifies, or gives effect to, the key principle for the UN Refugee Agency and the United Nations as a whole, and that is “solidarity and responsibility sharing.” That’s key and I think you will all know that in the last few years, that we’ve not – we’ve seen some resistance by European countries to accepting refugees, but now we see those borders open and with a unprecedentedly generous protection – temporary protection process. So, we are very grateful for that, and we hope that that provides a momentum long-term for countries to understand that we can’t solve these problems alone, or even regionally. We have to do it with global solidarity, with funding and with practical support. And Mexico, for example, is receiving Ukrainian refugees and they need support, as well.
Well, I’ll finish there, really, to say the challenge is going to be to ensure that we maintain the momentum of support in Ukraine. The needs are huge and that is where a focus will lie, because that is where I think the greatest needs probably lie. But thank you very much and back to you, Renata.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thanks so much, Gillian, and thanks for bringing out a point that I think isn’t – doesn’t come through when we just talk about numbers…
Gillian Triggs
No.
Dr Renata Dwan
…which is who’s moving? And you’ve pointed out that women are moving, and children are moving and that – therefore, that brings a whole set of different protection needs, doesn’t it, into thinking about people on the move, in transit, whether in Western Kyiv, Western Ukraine or in Europe. It requires us to think about schooling and the provision of schooling. It requires us to think about protection from trafficking and it requires, as you said, thinking about ways to support families, maintain as much stability and as much cohesion as possible.
What sort of guidance does UNHCR provide to transit centres, to countries in need, to those countries accepting refugees, in terms of meeting some of those urgent protection needs for women and children in particular?
Gillian Triggs
Well, some of those European countries are very well placed. They’re sovereign entities, we can offer support, but the support that they are willing to receive will depend on their own view of their needs. I think it’s fair to say that the border countries, and Moldova particularly, Slovenia, Romania and others, are less well set up for gender-based violence, for trafficking, for child protection and for maintaining families’ solidarity, for dealing with the people with disabilities. The heart-breaking pictures of elderly people on walking sticks, trying to get across a border. Those border countries are not as well systematically prepared for this kind of thing, so we are finding that we are being asked to provide greater support to them.
So, we will be doing – we – of course, we are doing it and will continue to do it, of course, basic things like training quickly. We’re scaling up significantly for staff, as are other United Nations agencies, we’re all scaling up to get the critical skills that are needed, both at the border, but also as numbers now in well over a million, we think have already moved to Western European countries, where they’re better organised. But even so, some of those are asking for support and guidance as to how you manage – how you monitor to pick up trafficking. How do you identify, beyond registration, how do you identify a person who needs – has psychosocial needs, who needs counselling, who needs advice about what transport to take, where they’ve got an opportunity to find accommodation? So, we’re providing all of that, in part, through the Blue Hubs, but also through the systematic processes that Western states have. But, for the moment, I think we’ll be providing much of that support to border states.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thank you so much, Gillian. I’m going to move to you now, Corinne. Corinne, before the start of the Ukraine crisis, WFP was already warning about the scale of food security needs globally, of the impact of conflict on food security needs. And Ukraine obviously presents significant challenges, both in terms of need in the country and as a large breadbasket and provider of food to many parts of the world, in addition to itself. What’s the situation for the delivery of food – urgent food needs in Ukraine and how is WFP navigating that?
Corinne Fleischer
Well, thank you, Renata, and as you say, we’re very worried about what’s happening inside Ukraine, but almost even more so about what’s happening as a result of the war in Ukraine on food prices and food insecurity across the world.
But let me just start – I’m going in and outside of Ukraine and, actually, Victor, I hope I will see you in Kyiv. I’m coming to Kyiv tomorrow, actually, and it would be nice to link up. And I also was in Moldova, and I’d just like to start with, you know, we hear many stories and I’d like to start with two stories that mark me most.
When I was in Moldova, I met with a nine-month pregnant woman and, you know, on top of the challenges she faces as becoming a first-time mother, she had to decide whether she stays with her husband in Odessa to give birth to her child or she leaves her husband, goes alone to Moldova to give the safety to her to be born child. What a decision to face.
And then I was in Vinnytsia just about three days ago and I was in the municipality where people register for cash assistance from the World Food Programme, and there was this little girl and she had this drawing and I asked her about her drawing. On that drawing was her house in Donetsk region, was her father, who her mother explained stayed behind to defend the country, and then there were money signs, money note signs and bread. And this girl summarised in one drawing what she needs and what she misses, shelter, family, safety and food on the table and we can see it in all our assessments.
Food is number two priority, after safety. So, our assessments shown them 30% of the people, you know, are looking for safety, are worried about safety, 24% are worried about food and 22% are actually worried about fuel for transport. And, you know, 35% say they don’t eat enough and also, 36% say that they see significant price increases and also shops not functioning fully.
So, WFP have left Ukraine in 2018, because we don’t stay in countries where we are not needed. There is enough to do in other countries. And the, you know, the agreement was, during the contingency planning, that we would only come back if the needs succeed the capacities and, obviously, unfortunately, this has happened. So, with no prior presence, no partners, no staff, no suppliers and so forth, we had to put up the systems for scale and we have now reached one million people in the first month. We’re planning to reach two million in April and three to four in May and go up to six, but that will depend on, you know, on the – how the needs evolve, also how the government can respond and, of course, funding permitting for us.
So, right now, we’ve procured 50,000 metric tons of food and are bringing this into Ukraine and we – and Gillian talked about, you know, cash, also. We are planning 50% in-kind food and 50% cash, but we need to bring food in, or buy it locally, to have a buffer stock, where in places like Dnipro, right now, the Mayor is asking for food and strategic stocks to be put into Dnipro because, of course, they’re fearing for the worst.
We have ten warehouses in the operation, which are available to the whole humanitarian community. We also, as Gillian said, we have a very diversified partner base. We work with local NGOs, we also work with the private sector, with Nova Poshta and retailers and city councils. We also have a dedicated fleet of 60 trucks to travel inside Ukraine, into places where, you know, the normal transport sector doesn’t want to go, and we have a vessel now in the Black Sea. We’ve decided to bring a vessel in the Black Sea, first to shunt food from Turkey, where we buy a lot, but also actually to try and get access back into Odessa because there is a lot of food to be exported. The government wants to export food. They want to empty their silos to bring the winter harvest in that’s coming soon and are planning to export large quantities, but you can’t export large quantities on trucks and trailers. It just doesn’t bring the scale. So, vessels need to come back, and we are trying to open that way.
We also now have scalable cash systems in place, we have the self-enrolment tool, where people register and we pay out through our Western Union contract, you know, within a few days.
What we’re most worried about, really, is the people in the encircled cities and we all know, you know, how we’ve all tried to go to Mariupol and can’t reach, but we’ve put – like with Nova Poshta, we’ve put some alternative means in place. We’ve gone to Chernihiv recently, with food and small vans. We had to wait for, like, three days to find the way, a bridge was broken, but then we managed to go through. We brought in food for 12,000 people in – to really an encircled city. That is not enough for the scale that is required, but I think we all jointly need to find, you know, the different ways around. So, now, of course, we’re all worried about the second wave, in the sense of what’s happening in the East now, new displacement. We are putting bulk food into Dnipro now, as a strategic stock, in case, you know, it becomes to an encirclement.
So, our plan, going forward, is, of course, to support people in conflict areas with rapid response rations. In the centre and West, we will do only cash. The markets are functioning. We won’t need to bring in the food there, but as I said, we need to, kind of, have this buffer stock. And we’re working with, you know, UNICEF, HCR, with the municipalities, the big – the needs are big for cash. So, you know, there is a need for all of us to come in there. And as Gillian said, we will help with the large-scale cash response and giving purchase power to people. We will help the market to come back and revive the market as it has to be.
And the last point, Renata, just now, coming to outside. You know, of course, we see a direct impact on food prices in the rest of the world, but also, and I can – you know, if you want, I can go a little deeper into this later on, you know, for example, in places like Lebanon, there will also be an issue of availability of wheat, because it takes ten days to bring food from the Black Sea region. It takes two months to take it from The Americas and, you know, Lebanon, for example, with the blast they had, they have no strategic stocks, and they depend to 80% of their wheat from the Black Sea.
But, you know, before COVID, WFP was concerned about 135 million people with acute hunger. After COVID, 280 million and now our projections are 320 million people will require food assistance and this last increase is because higher food prices, people not able to put food on the table, governments actually suffering from, you know, from the economic downfall of this. They’re in – especially in the Menorah region, there are large government subsidies, especially on bread, which they are now, potentially, having to scale back. So, we see, you know, large needs that WFP and the humanitarian community will eventually have to cover, and the question is, you know, where is the money for all this? I stop here, thank you.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thanks, Corinne. We will, I hope, come to some of the larger implications and more global implications of the crisis in our discussion, but I’d like, just, maybe to follow-up with you on this question of accessing encircled cities. You’re – you have described some of the ways you’re trying to get food into the South, the South East of the country. How are you able, and how is WFP navigating access? Are you finding that the discussions around humanitarian access and humanitarian corridors are getting better, worse, more difficult? And how do you assess the prognosis for going forward, to be able to get aid to people, fully recognising that, as a humanitarian organisation, you’re seeking not to take sides on and engage in delivering assistance to lifesaving needs?
Corinne Fleischer
You know, Renata, I’ve been in Syria for two and a half years and while we don’t compare the two conflicts, the access question is a very similar one. And, you know, in Syria, we stayed for days and nights at checkpoints trying to get into the encircled cities and, you know, sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn’t. I really hope that this will not be the case here, but so far, experience shows that it’s in no way easier.
So – and you know, and you all know that we haven’t been able to go to Mariupol and so, there are some progress, you know, that we do put notification in and can – we went to Sumy, we went to Kharkiv, but Kharkiv is not a full encircled cities. We reach Kharkiv, otherwise we have a bakery in Kharkiv which distributes bread, no? It’s really those cities that are fully encircled where the biggest needs are, in terms of the level and the depth of needs. The large numbers are, you know, outside with the people who leave those cities, who manage to leave those cities ahead of them being encircled and so, this is where we, you know, where we also are – the whole humanitarian community is largely required. But it’s a very, very difficult access discussion, as you can imagine, more so, even, than in Syria.
Dr Renata Dwan
And if Syria was hard, as you said, Corinne, if it’s more difficult in this space, that only gives it a frightening sense of the scale of needs that are mounting in those parts of Ukraine.
I’m going to turn to you now, Victor. You’re on the ground in Kyiv and you’re navigating needs on the ground. What are you picking up, in terms of Gillian and Corinne both talked about communities and how much communities on the ground are serving as the backbone, together with local authorities, for the provision of assistance? Share with us, a little bit, some of the perspectives on how East Europe’s foundation and the broader Ukraine civil society is trying to respond.
Victor Liakh
Renata, thank you so much for organising the discussion. We really feel the support from the UK, in various terms, and definitely from international organisations.
My – I will present my experience, we – and my assessment of the situation, which comes from the activities of East Europe Foundation. And just wanted to say that we started these activities with some reintegration of IDBs, back to 2014 and 15 and we had a first stage of the war with Russia. But, at the same time, now, the situation is very different, in terms of scale, in terms of the war situation, then we don’t have any social institutions working.
East Europe Foundation started our response to war situation in very first days of the beginning of the war. We started five centres for IDBs and then we extended to seven. We also provide a lot of humanitarian aid to suffering communities and cities. At the moment, we brought more than 300 tons of different kind of humanitarian aid, and we managed to deliver them on – almost to frontline. Corinne said that definitely Kharkiv is accessible. We deliver even further, to Merefa, for example. We were one of the first organisations which brought humanitarian aid to Bucha and Borodyanka. East Europe Foundation were the first organisations which brought humanitarian food to Chernihiv after heavy bombing.
And I wanted to share with you several data and my situation analysis with regard to various childcare situation and situation with young people. And again, here, I wanted to say that 60% of all kids in Ukraine, they are displaced, either internally or travelled to another country. With this, I wanted to share the – another figure, which is 100 – 1,000 of different kind of educational establishments in Ukraine, either damaged or destroyed completely. And in this situation, we don’t see the opportunity for these destroy the damaged education establishments that are working for the next educational year, which starts in – sorry, starts September.
That means that more – bigger majority of kids and young people would need to start their classes and their educational cycle in the next schools, in the schools – in the new schools, which – where they are in new communities, which makes a lot of, let’s say, challenges for local authorities, in terms of providing enough spaces for them in schools, providing enough tools for education, like textbooks, computers, etc., for proper education. And we expect that their overloa – their classes will be overloaded, at least 100%, which will also create different kind of issues related to proper training and number of Teachers available in new communities where kids will, you know, join new schools.
The – and definitely, communities are not prepared for this, especially in the situation that’s, kind of, with lower budgets and in number of trainings and, unfortunately, our new training programmes, they are not available for Teachers. That will be my assessment of the, kind of, six or nine months perspective, in terms of young people and, yeah, needs for education and built-in social cohesion in new communities.
I also want to say that Ukraine has several, kind of, major resources, which will be, kind of, one of the several pillars, which we construct re-socialising or, let’s say, social integration activities. First, we have a very strong civil society network and this will be a wonderful resource for supporting local governments in their integration, their activities on reintegration of IDPs. And again, here we have wider social networks and a network of social care and different kind of educational establishments, which are already on the ground. So, that will be another pillar, which we can base on in the process of reintegration.
We also have a high level of training system for – and especially online system for Teachers, service providers, childcare specialists. At the same time, we desperately need the training – special training programme on how to work with emotionally stressed kids, how to build a tolerant and inclusive society, especially on community level, then we will – in some cases, community increased by 80% of the population. And you can image how hard it is to fully full scale – ensure full scale integration of these kids – of these kind of families be immersed into the new communities.
Again, just to add that several Ukraine ministries target different kind of online education programmes for school subjects, as well as new skills, aimed at providing opportunities for parents, as well, as if to continue their education online. And here, I just need to say activities of the Ministry of Education and Science and Ministry of Digital Transformation in launching, kind of, an advanced reaction in launching their platforms very quickly to provide both kids and children with opportunity to continue their educational process.
Let me stop here and answer your question.
Dr Renata Dwan
No, thank you so much, Victor, and I think what – hearing you speak, what I’m struck by are two things. One, the resilience of Ukraine and Ukrainian civil society, in part because, as you know, there has been conflict in parts of the country on the way since 2014. So, a certain degree of resilience and learning and adaptations taking place.
Second, perhaps one of the implications of COVID anywhere has been a move to online and you talked about the need to try to think about online and support and find offline or online modalities to assist children in education and some sense of normality continuing. But I note what you’re also saying is that the scale of needs that we’re seeing in the conflict today are such that it’s making it very difficult to respond. You also highlight the need, and it was something Gillian talked about, too, psychosomatic and traumatic care, because of the scale of disruption for so many people of the community in society, 60% of all the children being displaced.
I want to ask you whether you think it’s possible to have a staggered approach. Corinne talked about a cash-based approach in Kyiv in the North and in the West, and then having – looking at food supplies in the East. So, almost a differentiated approach, then, depending on where needs are greatest. Do you see that as an option for the provision of supported children, that, sort of, in some areas of the Western Ukraine and the North one can start already thinking about schools and provisions, but the need to take a different provision in the East? And, of course, online is going to be dependent on electricity supplies and people being in a place to even have Wi-Fi. So, how are you thinking about that differentiated approach?
Victor Liakh
Thank you, Renata, for this question. Definitely agree that cash support will help families to provide them with some basic need on, kind of, on the relocation and starting, at least starting, kind of, life in new communities. At the same time, we would need to also think about, kind of, budget support to local communities, hosting communities, as it will be very hard for them to maintain enough Teachers to provide them with the salaries, to extend, probably, premises and schools and to think creatively how to – how we can start offline training process in schools, where we desperately need new spaces, etc.
Definitely, we also need to think about the comprehensive training or access to training programme for various childcare professionals, Teachers, School Administrators, etc. And unfortunately, Ukraine does not have this experience and we would need to think either to adopt international experience or to kind of produce our own and again, this takes time. And here, I would think about more comprehensive programmes, targeted to local communities, with enough budget for them to, kind of, built, kind of, their adaptation programme between new realities, as well as special training programmes for those who are involved in the process of adaptation of the communities, like childcare professionals, Teachers, and Youth Workers, Psychologists, etc.
Dr Renata Dwan
Yeah, I know, as Gillian also flagged, maybe also thinking about sexual and gender-based violence and prevention and protection and awareness around trafficking risks will be part of that, given we’re looking at a continued journey.
We have plenty of questions coming into the panel, so what I’m going to suggest is we take some of those at this point and then we come back out as we – in the – in our last ten minutes, with some of the wider implications that are on humanitarian and food and security and refugee crises, that the war is presenting for the world. I’m going to take the first question that I see here, Gillian, because it’s directed for – to you. It’s from Brooke Unger. You said that one million people had moved to Western European countries and she’s asking, “Could you give us a bit more detail about where they’ve moved? Are there a few countries taking in the bulk of refugees from Ukraine and how many refugees are returning to Ukraine?” particularly – and I’m assuming Brooke means those parts of the North, or Kyiv, where perhaps Russian troops have disengaged?
Gillian Triggs
[Pause] Thank you very much and that – they’re important questions that we don’t have precise numbers, as you can imagine. But I can say that the numbers coming across the border have now significantly reduced, but the numbers going back to Ukraine have increased. But we have to be so careful about this, because some are coming back if they think it’s safe to cross the border, to collect a relative they’ve left behind, sometimes elderly family members who couldn’t move quickly, or to pick up personal belongings or maybe to see what condition their property is in, and then they’re coming back across the border, to Poland or Slovenia.
So, we are not precisely counting at the moment, but we will have to get to a point where we have a better understanding of those that are returning. But we do know they’re returning, and that’s optimistic, but of course, it will be to Central and Western Ukraine and presumably not to the East.
With regard to those who’ve returned, I know that we know well over a million have already moved past the border states, to Germany, to Italy, to France. But they seem to be the main destinations. One point I should make is that while they’re – every efforts are now being made to register at the border, many people came through the border in those early weeks, you’ll remember this all very well, a million a week for four weeks, absolutely extraordinary. It meant that the registration of many was never achieved. It is now much more sophisticated, particularly Poland, but nonetheless, many – hundreds of thousands, millions, have probably moved across into Western Europe without ever being registered. And we – as they become slowly registered within Germany and Italy and France, Greece and so on, we’ll start to get a better sense of numbers, but I think they’re probably approaching 1½ million, at least, and probably more.
But can I also mention that there are – of course, the United States is taking them, Mexico is, and various other countries are now offering places and opportunities and lifting – barriers that have been impenetrable up to now are now being opened by generosity and political will. So, I think we will see a much larger diaspora, although most, of course, are desperately hoping that the war will come to an end, and they can return.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thanks, Gillian, and we’ll come back to the broader implications in a moment. Victor, you wanted to come in here.
Victor Liakh
Just wanted to add that – so…
Dr Renata Dwan
Victor.
Victor Liakh
…around the Ukrainian certificates that about four million people left to the Western countries. Four million people left to the Western countries. We expect that this number will grow with the new attack, so we expect 5-10% more people will travel to the Western countries and we consider two scenarios. First scenario is that the conflict will last for another three months, in this case it will be harder for Ukrainians to come back, because of schooling, because of, kind of, social integration, already, with, kind of, certain affiliation of the kindergarten, different kind of social protection institutions. And in this case, we see slowly [inaudible – 42:56] returning back.
In case the court battles will end in a month or two, we expect that 3/400,000 will come back from Western countries and to – again, this is all very much connected to childcare and access to schooling, to come back to, again, to be ready for new educational year.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thanks, Victor, and I think it’s an important point, Gillian and Victor, of, well, pointing out that most refugees want to go back. People don’t voluntarily leave their homes and quite often, they stay near their homes, so that they can go back in and out to check – try to bring in access to other family members, try to check on their houses. So, the picture is much more dynamic and fluid than we often see when we just think about numbers.
Corinne, you’ve your hand up and I’m going to turn to you, but I’m also going to ask you to answer a question by Trevor Clarke, which is, “What are the dangers of reprisals by Russian Soldiers in view of what has been reported to be food scarcities of Russian troops and is that a risk, in terms of safety of people on the ground?”
Corinne Fleischer
Well, I just, first, wanted just to add onto – you know, as you all said, people don’t want to leave their homes and they want to come back if they can. I think this is why it is so important, also, to have a large scale, and respond to the large scale, needs inside Ukraine. It’s because people who didn’t have to leave because of, you know, insecurity and for their safety, and stayed back in Ukraine, well, the longer the war lasts, people lose their jobs and don’t have enough to cater for their families anymore and then, those will be the second wave who leaves. And we have seen that in Syria and, you know, in the big Syria conflict, as well, is that people then leave because they can’t put food on the table and so, then, they leave. And so, that’s why it’s important.
Not sure I entirely understand the question. So, we are working with municipalities and with NGOs when we bring food into places and so, we – you know, there are the – as much as possible in these places, let’s not forget it’s a war situation, the NGOs, they do identify those who are most needed. But when you are in a city that is, you know, semi or totally encircled, but if you speak of Kharkiv, or I’m sure, you know, Kyiv at the time, you know, everybody is in need. And so, we have large – we have bakeries in six big cities under our contract now, who do provide bread to people, but as I said, it is going through NGOs and municipalities, who do identify who are those most in need and then ensure, to the best of their abilities, to provide the food to those.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thanks very much, all. Gillian, I’m going to come back to you, and it is really a question from Nicholas Siegler, about “What sort of access does UNHCR have to refugees who have been – who have fled to Russia, either voluntarily or,” as he says, “forcibly?” Do you have access to those?
Gillian Triggs
We have had an office, of course, in Russia, in Moscow, for a very, very long time and our colleagues are now working closer to the border, where some of those refugees are coming across into Russia. And we are a humanitarian, politically neutral, body, a refugee is a refugee and wherever they’ve come from, we will be supporting them. Of course, we’re hearing rumours about why they’re there. The numbers I checked just recently, it’s well over 400,000 people from the Donbas region, broadly speaking, have been moving across the border into Russia, and of course, we will be what – of course, enquiring as to whether not this is a voluntary movement. But for the moment, they’re refugees, they’re receiving support and we are working, again, with Russian NGOs to see if we can help with exactly the same needs as we’re seeing in other parts of Ukraine and outside.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thanks very much, Gillian. I wanted to bring in now a question from you on grants and maybe I’ll start with Victor asking that question, but welcome all of your perspectives on it. And the question is really one of trust and specifically are Russia and Belarusian staff of NGOs or international organisations, are – well, I’m going to frame your question, Euan, “Are Russians trusting international organisations and are Russian and Belarusian staff of international organisations being trusted in Ukraine?” Obviously, the language, knowledge and regional and country knowledge is critical for international NGOs to be able to access people in need, to be able to communicate and to engage, but are you seeing challenges around your Russian staff or Russian speaking and Belarusian staff in your teams?
And then I’d like Victor, maybe, just to share issues around trust towards international NGOs in Ukraine, on the ground, and also protect – potentially, Victor, Russian minority and Russian speakers in the region, given that this has been a conflict for some years, particularly in the Donbas region. I’ll start with you, Victor.
Victor Liakh
Several points here. Russian, as a language, is not a problem, at all, and we do not see discrimination by language here in Ukraine. This is definitely not the case. Again, here, I just wanted to ruin all Russian propaganda that Russian speakers are abusive, how – or – this is not true, definitely. This is my first command.
Second command, unfortunately, we don’t have so many Russian NGO representatives, kind of, travel to Ukraine, working for – in Ukraine with international organisations. We have much more Belarusian indications, which escaped from – or civil society leaders who escaped from the present regime and now they have reallocated – previously they have reallocated to Ukraine, but now I also need to say that most of them now already left, to either Moldova, Poland, to other countries of Baltic states.
And I – here to trust to international organisations and different, kind of, UN organisations, and we would like – we wanted to say they’re more, kind of, leadership and special in some hardest cases. Mariupol protecting those Ukrainians who’d been forced, taken, and they’re reallocated to Russia. Unfortunately, we don’t have access, we don’t have – as Ukraine, as a state, as a civil society organisation, we don’t have this power as UN organisations potentially could apply in order to help the situation.
We’ve seen the situation with the Red Cross, which used money, collected donations collected for Ukraine, to help Ukraine and in the situation with Mariupol, then simply supported Russian side on transferring Ukrainians out of their free will, to Russian territory, which was one of their, kind of – one of the violation of the principles of working with all those international organisations.
So, we see that. At the same time, we keep co-ordination and there are several group, also, to co-ordinate efforts within Ukraine of international organisations helping Ukraine. I am glad that Ukrainian Government takes an active role in co-ordinating and bringing a lot of monetary and etc. – aid to Ukraine. And at the moment, in most cases, I would say I’m really confident that we have, let’s say, at least, we have a high level of co-ordination between organisations. We have dialogue between these organisations. We have joint efforts and number of initiatives between government officials, civil society, international organisations, on responding to the situation.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thank you, thanks, Victor. Gillian, and I don’t know if you want to come into this question, which is, ultimately, the trustworthiness of Russian or Belarusian staff, is the implication. Is that something that is a concern to you and HCR?
Gillian Triggs
My understanding is that we have had long-term relationships with these NGOs in these – particularly in Russia, and I, you know, I think there’s always going to be a huge difference between what’s happening on the ground with local communities, people we’ve worked with for years and years and years, where trust is clear, but of course, the position would be totally different at a political level. So, I think, for the moment, we are working with those NGOs and the objective is humanitarian aid and we just, we stay with that, and I believe that the trust is there.
Dr Renata Dwan
Great, thank you very much, and I appreciate that’s a sensitive question for humanitarian actors. We’ve got a question from Kieran O’Mara and it gets at, really, the themes that I think are important, that we also touch on as we draw to a close, which is really the implications and the wider implications of the refugee crisis and the humanitarian crisis. Corinne and Gillian, you’ve both talked about the scale of this refugee movement, of the movement of people across Europe being unprecedented, at least unprecedent since World War Two. But as you’d touched on, Corinne, we’re dealing already with unprecedented levels of need. We’re dealing with unprecedented levels of refugees’ movement since the Syrian crisis. We’re dealing with food insecurity at new levels and risks of famine at a global level that has reached significant and new levels of scale.
To what extent – I’d like to ask you all – you both, two questions. One is, is this going to break the refugee – the global refugee system as we know it, and the humanitarian system? Can we continue to keep mounting scale-up, scale-up, scale-up as needs, particularly at a time of COVID recovery, particularly at a time of rising inflation and costs? And is there a risk that the scale of this crisis continues to contribute to populous movements in domestic societies in Europe? We do have the French elections underway. We’ve seen the Hungarian elections just recently, two weeks ago, really lead to significant debate around populist and populist movements and anti-immigration movements.
So, these are big questions, I know, and there’s no easy answers to them, but I’d – it’d be great to get your perspectives, Gillian, on what are those implications of the scale and, Corinne, I’ll bring you in then.
Gillian Triggs
Well, thank you, and if you’d asked me that question before the war in Ukraine, I think I might’ve been a bit low key, a bit depressed, a bit unsure of where the – all of this was going. Because we’ve seen, and for all of the reasons you’ve set out, rising populism, xenophobia, anti-migrant, closed borders, reflecting, often, COVID, but using the excuse of COVID to close borders, etc. It is paradoxical, but the Ukrainian war has actually demonstrated why solidarity globally is so important and why the Refugee Convention is so important and, in particular, why the Global Compact on Refugees is so critical. Because the key principle is equitable sharing of responsibility and burdens of refugees and all displaced people.
Now, that’s a – that’s been a rather difficult principle to promote. We do have support for it and we do have global political support for it, but many were asking the question, “Is the asylum system broke? Does the Refugee Convention need reforming?” Get all of those kinds of questions. I think now, after the – with this war, with this horror of this war, we’re – it’s bizarre in some respects, but I – we see now a momentum for understanding why the principles of the Refugee Convention are so important, open borders, to claim asylum, to give protection and non-reform on – non-return to danger.
We think those principles are more important than ever and we think that the Compact provides the mechanism for giving effect to it. It – we think it will – the war tragically, of course, gives momentum to this idea and we are seeing other countries beyond Europe also opening up their borders for Ukrainian refugees and we hope that that will continue, then, where states simply cannot give in to populist rhetoric, in short. So, I am more optimistic, curiously, than I might’ve been beforehand. But that’s…
Dr Renata Dwan
Thanks, Gillian.
Gillian Triggs
… ‘cause I’m not Pollyanna, that I’m – that we can see this being effective, but thank you.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thanks, Gillian, and Corinne, you’ve seen the international response and the Syrian versus Ukrainian response and there have been some discussions about, “Is the world opening its arms up to Ukrainians in a way that it hasn’t to Syrians?” It’s certainly one of the issues in Global South media in discussions and debates. How do you see the perspective for the systems to cope and whether we can really maintain that spirit of solidarity?
Corinne Fleischer
Well, let me just go back to Syria. There are six – still six million Syrian refugees outside of Syria. There’s six million Syrian displaced inside Syria. That’s 11 years on and WFP, you know, is reaching six million people in Syria, but with half rations, because we don’t have the money to give them full rations. You know, Syria is not sho – already, before, Syria was not, you know, on the news anymore.
So, now, you know, that – and then, you had, you know, Lebanon with the economic collapse of Lebanon and the whole region, you know, is going with price increases, incredible price increases and the needs rising. Yemen, we should reaching 13 million people, we do, but only five of them get a full ration and eight of – eight million of them get half a ration and we may have to cut them out completely because no money available.
So, will the system cope, will the generosity continue? Well, I hope so, because you know, it just – that conflict, that war, makes everything so much worse. Just imagine that the – you know, Egypt and Turkey, 30% - they have a big tourism industry. 30% of their tourists are Ukrainians or were Ukrainians and Russians. So, where is that going to lead for the ability of countries to cope, you know, with the increased needs of their population as prices rise?
So, I think the system can do it, we can scale-up, but we need the money, and we don’t have – we raised more money than ever last year. I’m sure we’ll raise more money this year than last year, even, but the needs and the difference between the needs and what is available is becoming so much bigger and so, you know, I’m sure we all should appeal to those countries, now, who will make much more money because of the high oil prices, to actually some of these Gulf countries, to come in and support. We are appealing to billionaires who, you know, because of COVID, have made tremendous amounts of money, trillions of money, for some of them in a day, to actually help cope with this crisis for those who are at the bottom of the pyramid and as always, are those who suffer most from a war and from an economic collapse.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thank you. I’m going to let you have the last word, Victor, as somebody in Ukraine, and if I could just ask you for one minute, unfortunately our time is up, to flag how do you see the Ukraine’s message to be one of a global message? How can you make that situation, that crisis, a need, one that there can be global solidarity around Ukraine and in support of Ukraine?
Victor Liakh
Thank you, Renata. Just wanted to say that we feel the support from international community and the fact that Ukrainian refugees are travelling all around the world produces a lot of solidarity with Ukraine, we feel that. The case of Germany, for example, which changed tremendously attitude to Ukrainians, then German citizens feel the number of Ukrainians are coming does give a lot of hope.
We also wanted to say that the situation of war in Europe, which is the biggest humanitarian crisis than the war – than the Second World War, showed the fragility of the situation and fragility of the peace and – here in Europe. And my clear message to European countries, as well as to the West, is that in case Ukraine fails, next war will be in European Union. And here, without any pathetic words, I just wanted to say that we are fighting for our freedom and for our values and we would like to be a part of the European Union because of sharing values, because of our freedom, and because of the high standards of keeping human rights. That’s the fight is going on here in Ukraine. Ukraine will win, definitely, and with your support, we can definitely decrease the number of casualties, we can decrease the number of deaths, and we can decrease the number of IDPs and those people who need our protection and support. Again, thank you very much for all the work you do to support Ukraine.
Dr Renata Dwan
Thank you, Victor. I’d like to thank all three of our panellists for highlighting, I think, some of the aspects that haven’t come out as much in some of the discussions on the media on the specific needs of refugees, on the types of assistance, on the insights on cash-based assistance and the food challenges. Corinne, I think it’s new to many people that WFP runs bakeries in so many parts of conflict zones in the world. And I think Victor for giving us an insight to some of the particular educational demands in the near-term and more medium-term.
And I think you’ve also all flagged an important point, which is solidarity and the essence of the humanitarian system, it rests on a perception on solidarity and that must be global, because it can’t be partial. And as long as we see that, perhaps we’ll take all, Gillian, a little bit of faith from you that in response to Ukraine, perhaps we’ll all find solidarity.
I’d like to thank you all for joining us today. Thank you for all your questions and my apologies for not being able to get to all of them. And we’re wishing all our colleagues well today, but in particular with thoughts for all those in need in Ukraine and around the world today. Thank you very much for joining us. Bye, bye.
Corinne Fleischer
Bye, bye.
