A world in transition and the future of the global workforce

Lizzy Burden

Okay, good morning, everyone. Welcome to this session here at Chatham House. I’m Lizzy Burden. I’m an Anchor and UK Correspondent at Bloomberg TV. It’s really great to be back here for this event. I really can’t remember the last year that we did it, but we were talking about whether we were all going to be working from home, which I think speaks to just how much things have changed over the past few years, which really is the topic of our conversation today, “The World in Transition.” Before we get going, I just really want to say thank you to Chatham House for having us here, to all of you for turning up this Tuesday morning and to EY for supporting the event.

But as we think about how things are changing and this future of the global workforce, I would frame it this way. We have short-term changes, first of all, the politics, elections around the world. We’ve just had the UK election. We’re waiting for detail on October the 30th of how the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is going to shape our labour market here. We’re three weeks away from the US election. We could, potentially, see more tariffs that could be more inflationary. That would put pressure on companies as they’re hiring.

And then, globally, we have this resurgent right wing, which of course, has an impact on immigration policy. So, there’s the politics, there’s geopolitics. We have not just trade tensions, but the wars in Europe and the Middle East, and then we have the Global Central Bank pivot. Most Central Banks pivoting to rate cuts, except Japan, but mostly easing pressure on companies, although if we – depending on who we see in the White House, maybe we’ll see the Fed pivoting to rate hikes.

But – so, we have the short-term changes and then, in the long-term, some of the themes that we were talking about last time we were here are still the same. We have ageing populations, and I was reading in a report by Morgan Stanley yesterday that we’ll have a million 100-year-olds across five geographies by 2030. But at the same time, in three geographies, we’re set to lose around 75 million workers of working age, between 25 and 69. So, you – while you have populations ageing and fertility rates declining, the proportion of the population, depending on those who are working, is increasing, the dependency ratio. So, it’s set to at least double in most of the G20 by 2060.

Could other long-term trends be the answer to that? We have migration, I know we’ll be talking about this, whether that’s the push from conflict or climate displacement or the pull of the places like Dubai, and sometimes push and pull factors happening at the same time. We think about the stream of migrants from Eastern Europe to the UAE. Of course, there’s also the technological revolution. We were talking about AI last time, but we know so much more about what that’s doing to the workforce, both in terms of displacing jobs and picking up slack in the labour market. But all these trends present opportunities and risks and so, today, we’ve gathered an expert panel to discuss how to navigate them.

So, without further ado, I’m pleased to introduce His Excellency Hadi Badri, who is joining us remotely from Dubai. He’s CEO for Dubai Economic Development Corporation at Dubai Economy and Tourism. We also have Seema Farazi. Dr Seema Farazi is a Partner at EY. We have Dr El Iza Mohamedou, who is Head of the OECD Centre for Skills. She’s here from Paris. And we have Christa Rottensteiner at the end there, who is Chief of Mission at the International Organisation for Migration in the UK. It’s so great to have all of you with us this morning. Such a range of perspectives, and I’m going to hand over to you, in the order I introduced you, to give us some brief opening remarks, please. So, Your Excellency Hadi Badri, I give you the floor.

HE Hadi Badri

Thank you and good morning from Dubai and thank you for having me participate in this discussion. Unfortunately, I can’t be with you in person today, as we’re hosting 200,000 technology participants over the next four days at the world’s largest tech conference here in Dubai. So, it’s a busy moment, but I hope that I’ll be able to join you in person in the near future.

I’d like to start by saying that, you know, there’s no doubt that the global economy is evolving at any accelerated pace. We see that talent is really the cornerstone of sustainable growth and innovation and we see these trends playing out in Dubai. We’ve been ranked the number three global talent hub by Harvard Business Review and our city has become a magnet for the world’s brightest minds. It’s really a result of a – of deliberate and sustained focus by our government on talent attraction and development. And so, I’d like to share how Dubai has achieved this position and how our ambitions under our 10 Year Economic Agenda, named D33, will continue to shape the future of work.

Our success as a global talent hub is no accident. It really stems, first and foremost, from decades of investment that we’ve made in both hard and soft infrastructure and continuous improvements in ease of doing business. We have professionals from nearly 200 nationalities, and we’ve built a truly international city. Our workforce is represented by ex-patriots, for the most part. They represent the super majority of our talent and reflect the critical mass of talent and the diversity that thrives in Dubai.

And we also have communities of skilled professionals from around the world that are firmly established here, and it creates the density and the collaboration that is required for innovation to happen. We also rank number three globally in AI talent attraction and we use that as a clear indicator of our commitment to stay at the forefront of emerging technologies. We draw talent from next generation industries, like AI, blockchain, fintech and smart manufacturing, so that we keep Dubai as a hub for innovators of tomorrow.

There are four factors that I’d like to share that really underpin our position as a leading global talent destination. Firstly, our location. We consider ourselves a super hub at the intersection of Europe, Asia and Africa. We’re connected to 400 cities directly. One third of the world’s population live within a four-hour flight, two thirds within an eight-hour flight, and Dubai’s not just a place to visit on holiday or work. It’s really a global crossroads for talent, offering easy access to high growth markets. Secondly, as I mentioned, we’ve invested a lot in infrastructure and the lifestyle that we offer make Dubai an attractive place to live, to work and to play. We’re one of the safest cities in the world and we have top tier healthcare and world class education, which really make everyone feel at home.

Thirdly, we’re a business-friendly environment. We foster growth. We have policies, such as 100% foreign ownership across sectors. We’re tax friendly and we’re really obsessed, as a government, on how we can be the easiest place to do business, and this supports entrepreneurship and allows businesses and talent to flourish. Finally, two thirds of the Top 100 Most Innovative Companies have a substantial presence here in Dubai and I think this speaks to our commitment to foster in an ecosystem where the world’s leading firms’ talent can succeed and collaborate. I’d also like to mention diversity is a core strength of ours. Our multicater – multicultural environment fosters innovation and collaboration and brings together perspectives from around the world. This has created, really, a unique space where ideas flourish and we can drive success.

Looking ahead, talent’s a key focus for our economic agenda, which aims to double our GDP over the next ten years and position Dubai as a top three global business hub and we can only achieve that with a strong dynamic workforce. From a talent perspective and education perspective, we already have Top 100 Global Universities that are set up here and we’re working hard to attract even more of the world’s best academic institutions. Just this week, at Gitex, our tech conference, we’ll be announcing two top global R&D institutes that will be setting up centres here in Dubai.

So, in short and just to summarise, our success as a global talent hub is really because we’ve been very deliberate in our policies as a government. We’ve made strategic investments where it counts, and we’re really committed to creating an environment where talent can feel at home and can thrive. Dubai is not just preparing for the future of work. We’d like to believe that we’re defining it. Thank you, and I look forward to discussing this during the panel and hearing any of your questions.

Lizzy Burden

Okay, Your Excellency, thank you. I see lots of people taking photos and I would just encourage you to Tweet. We have a hashtag going, which is CH_Events, so please do post them. But let’s get to Seema Farazi for your opening thoughts.

Dr Seema Farazi

Thank you, Lizzy, and it was great to start with an example of where we actually see excellence. We look across about 140 different countries, the immigration programmes across these countries and Dubai really does stand out for its innovation and its deliberate strategy and it’s seeing the pull through of that in the economy. Let’s look at the rest of the world. Now, you mentioned super elections, you mentioned geopolitics. Everywhere else we are really at a turning point in strategic talent and global migration policy, and it really feels, as somebody who’s practised in immigration for almost 25 years, that we’re, kind of, stuck in a vicious cycle. And we have an opportunity to get out of that cycle now. It feels like we do have a moment to, kind of, step off that cycle, but to do so, we have to recognise that in parts of the world, traditional immigration systems are broken.

Now, the good news is we can course correct, we can fix it, but the important news is that we cannot afford not to try. You talked about demographic challenges, economic productivity, social cohesion and the challenges that we’ve seen in the UK over the summer, conflict migration, climate migration, skills gaps for AI, green skills, etc. The policy that we have at the moment in certain parts of the world is just not sustainable and that is at a time when we most need it to be able to step in.

What do I mean when I say that things are ‘broken’? Well, we published a report with the City of London Corporation earlier this year, where we looked at the economic value and the socioeconomic value of migration. And we’re talking just – not just about the value of migration in the economies in which migrants are residing, but the value through remittances that travel around the world and the role that those remittances play in educating and upskilling families, etc. You and I were at Tech Week, and we saw that – one of the things that really struck me at Tech Week was how many founders on that stage had a migrant story.

Lizzy Burden

Hmmm.

Dr Seema Farazi

How many founders of unicorn tech companies had come into the countries where they were residing as migrants and the contribution that they made and how passionate they were about their migrant story. At the Investment Summit yesterday, Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google, talking about “We need incredible talent, wherever that talent is.” And the news for policymakers is that businesses, investors, entrepreneurs, do not wake up saying, “We need more migration.” They wake up saying, “We need talent, we need diverse workforces,” and they look for talent wherever they find it.

So, we need to move on from two things that are, kind of, holding us back at the moment. The first is recognition that immigration plays a vital role in the economy. It does. There are – it’s objectively proven. We won’t get into that. There’s a lot of research on that point. The second is that immigration does need to have sustainable control. There needs to be public faith, confidence and integrity in immigration systems, but there is no inherent or unresolved tension between these two, and you can see from what we’ve just heard that when you can actually look at this as two sides of the same coin, what you can achieve is very outstanding.

The problem that we see now is that immigration is always intended to complement long-term investment in domestic skills, long-term investment in education and research and development as part of a deliberate strategy. And where we’re seeing things break down in global immigration systems is because of the misalignment between the domestic talent agenda and investment in domestic talents and over-reliance on global talent. So, in many ways, and we were – a number of us were talking about this while we were having coffee upstairs, “Immigration has become a little bit of a scapegoat,” was the words that one of audience used, “or some kind of mythical beast,” and every frustration is being pointed at immigration. Whereas there is a huge gap between perception and reality, that is hampering policymakers at a time when they can least afford to have those constraints.

Now, the good news is that this can all be reset, but in order to do that, there has to be domestic policy intervention and global collaboration across four streams. Now, the first is that you have to have, as we just heard there, a cohesive and deliberate talent strategy that is looking at the domestic and the global talent strategies at the same time, with nuance, with sector nuance, with the ability to adapt, but the certainty that businesses need to thrive.

Secondly, we need to see better socioeconomic integration of under-representative groups in local labour markets: women, apprentices, refugees, diverse talent pools. More has to be done to support those talent pools that are already in the local market. Mobility partnerships, skills partnerships, leveraging virtual ways of working to enhance access to learning and development and then, fundamentally, global collaboration and partnership on the big crises that we’re facing around conflict, climate migration, etc.

So, we have an opportunity now to do this thoughtfully. We can see playbooks of where this has worked well. So, on the one hand, we’ve got all of these external forces telling us that we have to it. So, back to your point about opportunities versus risk, right? So, we have all of those risks, but we have so much opportunity now. This is a time to really shift the dial on the immigration debate and move it into a positive space where we can really leverage future of work. We can leverage virtual working, digital nomads, Gen Z and the new generation of employees and what their demands are going to be, to actually resolve some of these challenges.

And just one closing point. The – you mentioned the US elections. I was reading a discussion amongst US Politicians about immigration and one of the comments that they made was, “Immigration as a system resists simple solutions.” I disagree. The solution is there, we can see what it looks like in best practice, and we have to move now towards constructive dialogue to achieve it.

Lizzy Burden

Okay, really interesting. I have so many questions, but I’m going to sit on them for a moment. El Iza Mohamedou, over to you.

El Iza Mohamedou

Thank you. I wanted to start a little bit with the context in which we are. So – and I think some of the elements were already mentioned, but of course, there’s the issue of the labour shortages. And the OECD has done – does, on a yearly basis, a business sector OECD survey of its members and 90% of them are concerned, or very concerned, about labour shortages. So, that’s one area.

The other area is, of course, the one we just talked about is migration and we have seen unprecedented levels of migration in recent years. And so, you have these two elements with the discussion around upskilling and reskilling, which is driven both by the green transition and that’s really something that we see countries now developing responses around it. But you also have – even here, we see that in the OECD, about 20% of countr – of jobs are already in green-driven – are green-driven jobs. So, that’s already happening, but then you have, also in the UK, the Green Jobs Taskforce says that about one in five jobs in the UK will require these skills in demand.

So, we have that pull factor from the green transition and then you have, of course, the digital and AI, digital transition and AI, and there what we see at the OECD, of course, we have, since a few years, been seeing that about close to 30% of jobs are at high risk of automation. So, you have these elements that are really pushing for the upskilling and reskilling within this context of migration and labour shortages. At the same time, what we see is the adult participation in training is actually very low. So, we have only 40% of adults in the OECD, between 25 and 65, engage in some kind of training on the job. And when you look at SMEs, that’s even less, so about half of what the large corporations are doing. And when you look at people about 56, it drops to also half.

So, the ones who need it the most are training the least. So, you have that whole issue whereas we are talking about upskilling and reskilling, and then we have that same context, as well, of a lack of trust in public institution and business. That I think is something that we really need to put out, as well, is that the OECD does a Survey of Trust in Public Institution and 44% of people do not have – have a low trust in their government. Same thing happens in business. Just looking at the UK, the UK Ethical Risk Survey in 2023, only 35% of respondents believe businesses act ethically.

So, I think that’s also some of the underlying reasons around, also, all of these push-pull factors that we see, as well. So, what does that mean for us? What we consider is that there needs to be – to have – we need to have a coherent strategy around skills development and use, so precisely what you were saying, as well. We need to see AI, as well, in the – in this productivity discussion that is very much at the forefront of all of the OECD countries.

The OECD did a study of micro-level studies around review of micro-level studies, about what that means in terms of task performance increase. And we do see that AI, when used correctly and with some kind of training and pushing and managerial support and so on, does push to about ten – between ten and 56% of increase in productivity in task performance. It can happen, so that would help.

But at the same time, going back to the first point, we really need to have, and some countries are doing it, is having now trust as an indicator of government performance, because that is not something that we can set aside or expect to happen organically. And we think, as well, that around this whole AI discussion, digital, green transition, what we need is a holistic approach to skills development. So around, very much, the critical thinking, socioemotional skills, not just the technical skills, and so, that’s really where we see the discussion. So, I do think that there are several fronts which, of course, makes policy difficult, but that’s what is needed.

Lizzy Burden

It’s what they’re paid for.

El Iza Mohamedou

Exactly.

Lizzy Burden

Christa, over to you.

Christa Rottensteiner

Thank you so much. To complement the discussion and building on what others have said, I would like to talk about three issues that I believe are really important in this, and also building on Seema’s point about how do we reset this – from this vicious cycle around migration?

So, migration is a driver for strong economies. Let’s reflect on this a little bit more, because I think if we really make the case very strongly, we can also tackle some of the negative narrative around this. So, we’ve heard about the shrinking labour force and how much this is a concern for economies and for governments. This is because of ageing populations. So, the vacancy rate’s a real drag on economies.

We know from studies that GDP could’ve been up to 1½% higher last year if companies had been able to fill their vacancies. So, there’s really important impact on the economies. We also seeing then very specific problems, specific skills shortages in particular sectors. In the UK, for example, it’s the health and social care sector that’s really struggling to fill jobs and that’s likely to continue with an ageing population. But also, we’ve heard about the importance of green skills and the lack thereof in countries like the UK.

So, countries need to act. Governments need to upskill their labour force, and we’ve heard this already. So, migration is part of the solution. Skilled migrants can fill these gaps because it will take a while ‘til this upskilling is happening and other labour market problems are being solved. So, there will be a global competition for these skilled migrants and that’s why, again, this narrative is such an important one to attract global talent. But not only is migration essential, but it gives economies a real boost. So, cross-border migration generates an annual economic output of $9 trillion. So, these are all really important facts that we should remember and we should generally make the case to policymakers.

That brings me to the second point. That if we want that migration can fulfil this economic potential, we need effective national policies. These are policies that don’t treat migration as an afterthought, but where they’re really integrated into all the policymaking. We need a strong evidence base. That means labour market information systems that have real-time data to look at the skills shortages and that are really well connected to an agile immigration system that can change visa policies based on these skills demands. And we need foresight, we need systems that look at the future and what skills are needed.

In addition to the evidence base, we need coherence. So, we need policies that complement each other rather than contradict each other. And policies are informed by all stakeholders, that means all government departments that might have different opinions, the – also involving, of course, very closely, the private sector, diaspora, civil society organisations and migrants themselves. We need whole of government and whole society approaches to policymaking. IOM, as the UN migration agency, can help in these policy processes, because we can see – we have got experience from many countries, how this can be done effectively. And all this needs to be underpinned by a positive narrative that we’ve talked about quite a few times now. Not only is this really important to reduce the risk of discrimination against migrants, but it – in – it’s very hard to have this evidence policymaking that we’ve talked about when we have such a toxic narrative that exists in many countries.

So, this brings me to the final area around how do we make sure that migration can benefit all, given of these important benefits that we’ve heard? And we can do so through strong international co-operation and through innovation. And when I say ‘all’, I mean, countries of destination, countries of origin and the migrants themselves. We need to put migrant skills at the centre. The recognition of their qualifications is really key and that can often be a blockage. We want businesses to be reassured, but we also want migrants to not waste their talents. And it’s very important for businesses to invest in all their workers, regardless of nationality, and when migrants stay, governments should invest in their integration. Migrant rights should also be at the centre. So, we need strong frameworks so that we can prevent exploitation from happening.

But what’s really important is that we innovate, and we’ve talked about, you know, the importance of skills and there’s innovative ways out there to have partnerships that are not extractive, but that are a true collaboration, for example, skills mobility partnerships. Many countries are piloting these now. A skills mobility partnership involves a country of destination investing in the skills development in a country of origin. And then, some of these skilled migrants would come and migrate, but others would stay at home and they would invest and ben – and it would be the local economy that benefits from their skills. And people could migrate and then return, or they could migrate on a permanent basis. So, it’s a lot of variation there.

A good example is a current partnership between Italy and Morocco and Tunisia, and that’s looking at green skills, but also Construction Workers. That’s under the EU Talent Partnership that IOM implements. So, these are skills mobility partnerships, a great model, a real win between the different parties. And another idea are displaced talent schemes. These exist where people have certain skills, but they cannot use them because they’re refugees. So, they might find themselves in a displaced camp, but they’re Doctors, they’re IT Engineers, and displaced talent schemes connect these workers to businesses that cannot find these skills locally. One example is a displaced talent scheme in the UK and IOM has already helped over 200 healthcare workers to fill gaps in the UK health sector.

So, in summary, migration is a key driver for strong economies, so let’s make sure that we make the most of its benefits through effective national policies and strong international co-operation and innovation.

Lizzy Burden

Okay, thank you all for your opening thoughts; really interesting. I am going to come to audience questions shortly, but I’m just going to indulge in a few of my own first. I feel like everybody has talked about the benefits of migration so far and I do feel like this is a room that is quite persuaded to that case. But we’ve talked about the elections that are happening around the world, the resurgence of right-wing politics and there’s obviously a clash there. You touched on it, Christa. El Iza, how can governments get the migration they need when it seems like voters are pushing them to let fewer people in?

El Iza Mohamedou

I think when it comes to the migration discussion, I think it has more to do with the sense of disorder than necessarily a push factor. And so, it’s really much more about this whole context, so it’s talking about where you have also, this sense of a bit of loss around the AI discussion and then the sense of disorder re: migration. This sense of, where is the economy going? Where – what does that mean to me? I think it’s more that than necessarily something else. So, I do think that the coherent policy around the strategy, and you worked around reskill strategies, is important, the sense that this is being done. This is – I think the whole skills discussion should not be at the country level only. It’s not a zero-sum game, you win, I lose. It’s more about what does that mean, precisely what you were do – saying at the origin country, or does that mean in the beneficiary country? We have different demographic trends in these count – in Europe and in the UK, where the ageing population, but also in some completely different regions where there’s very young populations.

So, I think the more we discuss these issues at the global level, the more we make it understand. But I think it’s more – we need to, I think, step away from this issue of this is pushing against. I think, for me, it’s a little bit about this disorderly perception and that’s where we need to discuss it and precisely with these schemes, I think that differentiates the discussion.

Lizzy Burden

And Christa, apart from doing the policy well, is there a way you think you could change the narrative, because this is sweeping across the world?

Christa Rottensteiner

Yeah, yeah. I think we need to look at facts, also. We need to tackle misinformation and disinformation, because we can see real-life impact and the danger that that brings. And bringing more nuance, not just giving big numbers, but explaining them, being honest what it means. We know that most migration is regular, so why do we talk so much more about the small percentage of irregular migration? I think that is a really important part. But we’ve talked about integration and I think this is key and we can see that when we invest in integration, we – it has economic benefits, but it also has these social benefits.

But at the same time, I think we also need to recognise when people have grievances, and very often, they have absolutely nothing to do with migration. We talked about ‘scapegoats’, but these grievances also need to be tackled. So, I think these are really the important elements that we tackle, the incorrect facts, that we have better integration, we tackle grievances, but then we have an oran – honest evidence-based discussion with the population to explain why we need migration and the benefits that that brings.

Lizzy Burden

I mean, ‘twas ever thus’ in times of economic hardship, right, but also, you know, times of war. And if we can turn from the politics to the geopolitics, Your Excellency, I mentioned the war in the Middle East. How is that impacting jobs in Dubai, especially when it comes to tourism?

HE Hadi Badri

So, you know, we’re very focused on a couple of points that have been mentioned by my fellow panellists. Maybe I can just address those first. You know, this concept of trust in government actually is a really important one for us. It’s actually a KPI for us in our government machinery, and, you know, the talent migration that Dubai has achieved over the past few weeks – actually, the past few years, I should say, really started with how well we handled COVID on an absolute and relative basis. Our leadership wanted to make sure everyone felt safe and comfortable, and this really raised the reputation of Dubai and, you know, Dubai has amongst the highest trust ratings in government globally.

The second thing I would mention is, you know, despite everything that’s happening globally, including wars, including, you know, geopolitics and politics, you know, we’re really focused on embracing innovation and moonshot sectors. We’re really focused on being positive and staying optimistic and people really want to be where there is growth and where there is optimism. And that is a topic that is also a KPI for us in the government.

You know, we are asked by our leaders on a regular basis, how happy are our residents? How happy are our tourists? How happy are our businesses? And we continue to see tourists coming Dubai at record numbers. We continue to see Dubai as a launchpad for startups and tech companies, to build from Dubai and operate globally. In fact, last week I met a two-time unicorn founder who’s recently moved to Dubai and I asked him why he chose to move here. And he said, you know, “There are a number of places that might be good for retiring, but for me, Dubai is the greatest place for building a business.”

And so, you know, we don’t ignore, by any means, what is happening globally, but we’re really focused on our agenda, which is around productivity and talent and making sure that people are happy to come here and happy when they’re here.

Lizzy Burden

Hmmm. Okay, I want to turn to the Central Bank story now, the pivot, and Seema, we’ve just had the latest UK jobs data this morning. There is this seemingly uniquely British problem of labour market inactivity, of course, making it harder to get the skills companies need. They have to lift wages to fill those gaps. That’s keeping inflation sticky. Are Politicians really grasping the root of that problem? It’s something that the Conservatives were looking at and now Labour’s looking at, but are they really getting to the nitty gritty?

Dr Seema Farazi

I think there has been a struggle with understanding the complementarity between the domestic skills gaps and global talent. And I think one of the big challenges for the UK Government now, and it’s been a challenge for the last few years, is the global competition for the talent that is needed to drive productivity is fierce. So, we’re talking about global talent attraction in AI, in tech, in fintech, financial services, all of the industrial – all the sectors that we talked about yest – that were discussed yesterday, in the industrial strategy, advanced manufacturing, life sciences. And in – when we looked at this earlier in the year with the City of London, we saw that 100% of the UK’s competitors in financial and professional related services are introducing programmes to attract the talent that they need to drive that economic productivity. And we have seen movement of financial services and fintech into Dubai, for example.

What I am encouraged by is a, kind of, shift in the narrative on two – looking at Skills England as, kind of, bringing together those, kind of, threads that we talked about. So, I said, you know, there’s four streams and the reality is that if you fail on any one of those streams, you fail on all of them. So, I’m encouraged by this idea that we are going to now move towards a much more cohesive strategy with Skills England, working with the Migration Advisory Committee, aligned to industrial strategy. To your point, Christa, a whole of government approach to the problem, yeah.

Lizzy Burden

‘Cause all of that seems a long way off from the rise of people who are long-term sick. You know, we can have these grand ambitions, but we seem to have this big problem of why are people staying at home?

Dr Seema Farazi

And this is why switching the discussion around migration and, kind of, changing the narrative is so critical, because the, kind of, complementarity between domestic and international talent really cannot be understated. When domestic talent investment is there, when there was education investment, it’s – educa – investment in education, reliance on migration drops. It happens organically.

What’s going on at the moment is that we’ve seen a lack of that investment in education, or we’ve seen a lack of investment in the local labour workforces. Now, you gave an example of recognition of professional qualifications, and again, this was something that was mentioned in the industrial strategy yesterday. Let me give you an example.

So, we work with the Refugee Employment Network, which is looking after the socioeconomic integration of refugees. So, refugees who are in the UK with the right to work and with qualifications and skills that are in short supply here. And we have an employability workshops. We have had conversations with qualified Pharmacists, qualified Doctors, qualified Lawyers, who cannot get off the cycle of doing under – jobs that are below their qualification levels because they can’t get their professional qualifications recognised. In one case, I remember speaking to a Pharmacist who was working in a supermarket because she couldn’t afford to sit the quali – the cross qualification.

So, these are all issues that we have to address. So, yes, I think we have a real challenge, but I am encouraged by the approach that we’re seeing come out of the industrial strategy. The key thing is, it’s going to be the devil’s always in the detail. What is it that we’re going to see over the next, kind of, three to six months, ahead of spring, when we see the strategy launched in full?

Lizzy Burden

Finally.

Dr Seema Farazi

Yeah.

Lizzy Burden

Well, thank you for that. I just want to take one of the questions that’s been sent in, and please do keep sending them in online. Christa, if I can put it to you. Manisha Nepali asks, “Can we really not think of a world without migrants?” So, I wonder whether optimally, the market works itself out and there is no migration.

Christa Rottensteiner

Hmmm hmm.

Lizzy Burden

I think that might be what she’s asking.

Christa Rottensteiner

Well, I think in the condred – constellation with ageing populations, this will be very difficult. But I guess it’s also, is this really desirable when we know the benefits that migration brings, not just in filling gaps, but also, we talked about the innovation, that creativity, the diversity of society? So, migration is a fact of life and has always been. The percentage of global migration is staying, actually, relatively stable. We always talk about it increasing and yes, it is increasing, but so is world population. At the moment, there is about 3.6% of the global population that are migrants.

So, I think this – it’s a fact of life and people will move. I think what’s really important to remember, though, is that we need regular pathways for people to move and that’s where I think the real challenge lies. It’s creates that sense of lack of control that we’ve talked about, but also, it hurts migrants and it hurts the economy. So, if people can move regularly, then there – that has a real benefit for individuals, but also for the economies. And with global – with climate change, we see that more and more people will have to move, and migration can be a very positive development in filling the skills gaps in the transition to Net Zero, because we have populations in the Global South where young people need jobs and we have those skills gaps in the green sector. So, let’s bring them together. But it’s only when we have these regular safe pathways, we can really make a difference and have that positive impact.

Lizzy Burden

Your Excellency, you were talking about the very positive story of Dubai alluring ex-pats from around the world. The flipside of that, though, is, of course, the pressure on infrastructure and we’ve reported at Bloomberg about how there’s pressure on schools and public transport and roads. I wonder how you can get to your ambition of becoming a top three global city and keep attracting those foreign workers without doing more to accommodate those people. What are you doing, apart from enhancing infrastructure to get them, and are you worried about competition from places like Riyadh, which has also got its ambitions? And I know you’ve got a friendly rivalry with your fellow Emirate, Abu Dhabi. How are you planning to attract people to Dubai instead of going to those places, also from untapped places like the US?

HE Hadi Badri

Yeah, so maybe I can address, first of all, kind of, our view from a migration perspective. So, you know, we launched a progressive visa policy to welcome global talent to Dubai. That was dum and – done a few years ago and it’s effectively, migration support for the brightest minds. So, we’re looking to bring graduates from top universities, Data Scientists, AI experts, CEOs, Chairpersons and Teachers to Dubai. So, Dubai is very open to the world. As I mentioned earlier, 85% of our population are nationals of another country but they call Dubai their home. We live in harmony. Everyone contributes to the economy in a meaningful way. So, from that perspective, you know, I think that’s what makes Dubai quite unique. As I mentioned in my earlier opening remark, the diversity that we have here is really quite special.

Infrastructure we can fix, supply we can fix, and the government is investing in a big way on infrastructure to support the next wave of growth. Our focus continues to be, how do we attract the next one million high skilled talent to Dubai, with their families, to contribute to the economic prosperity that we have? And when they come and they set up in Dubai, you know, they can tap into the world. They can easily go back and see their families, extended families, friends in other markets. They can easily travel for business. They can easily take the businesses that they start in Dubai global. So, it’s really the infrastructure and policy side where the government is, you know, pulling out all the stops to make sure that we can continue to grow in an accelerated way.

Lizzy Burden

El Iza, I know that you’re going to Ghana later today, from Paris, to London, to Ghana, but they’ve got this problem of brain drain. It’s, kind of, the opposite problem. How do you stop countries like Ghana training people up and then losing them all to other economies?

El Iza Mohamedou

Well, with some of the schemes that you were talking about, which is really about ensuring that we don’t create a gap where we fill another one, and so, there’s really this whole idea of making sure that if people are leaving – and I think that’s an important part. We can’t just talk about mobility as an informants – enforcement policy. It’s also about people’s free will of going elsewhere, and I think we need to respect that. And so, I think it’s really giving them that opportunity, but at the same time, ensuring that that gap that is being created is being plugged through retraining. And so, there are schemes where, as well, when you – someone is leaving, then, the country that is recipient will also then invest in the training and education in those countries.

And I think that’s precisely, as well, to your point, is that it’s really a discussion around education and training in those countries, where we ensure that the education and training is also aligned with the needs of the labour market in those countries. And so, that’s, for instance, where – an area where vocation education and training is particularly useful because it’s that, kind of, fast training that is very close to the workplace needs.

Lizzy Burden

And Seema, again, on the flipside of the brain drain or talent attraction story, out of London is the fear of tax heights in the upcoming budget accelerating it when you’re talking to your clients?

Dr Seema Farazi

It is – it’s certainly impacting it and this is – you know, we’re talking about a lot of, kind of, negative perceptions of immigration. But the individuals that we’re talking about here have global opportunities and there is a real risk to economies that they are going to lose the talent that they so desperately need because they are looking at the attractiveness of an ecosystem. So, they’re not just looking at – you know, when people are choosing where they’re going to settle, where they’re going to set up their business, the immigration route is probably the last thing that they will look at. They’re looking at the ecosystem, they’re looking at will they be able to access the talent they need? What is the economic environment for them going to be from a tax perspective? So, yes, this all hugely impactful.

Can I just come back to the point that Les – El Iza was making around the talent partnerships?

Lizzy Burden

Hmmm.

Dr Seema Farazi

Because the reason why I feel very optimistic about where we can go from here is this is a new world. We’re not even post-pandemic. We are post-post-pandemic, and we have virtual – we are seeing virtual talent pools being deployed, so, with brilliant partnerships between Germany and African countries on access to tech talent skills. We’re seeing the use of AI. We’re seeing Gen Z come into the workforce with very different expectations about how they’re going to work, where they’re going to work. Are they going to be digital nomads? Where will they base themself? All of this presents huge opportunity to really switch the narrative and AI, I guess, is something that we’ll come on to talk about now.

Lizzy Burden

Well, yeah, just on the AI point, how do governments make sure that AI isn’t creating more jobs than it displaces, just briefly?

Dr Seema Farazi

Well, from the – so, the immigration story around AI is quite an interesting one. Now, slightly leftfield is the fact that many immigration systems have actually been using AI within the immigration system for some time and there are challenges and risks, as well as huge opportunities, with that. But what we’re seeing on immigration and AI is that despite all of the restrictions and the negative discourse around immigration, countries are vying for AI talent at the moment. Now, there was a – to the tech talent – sorry, the AI Safety Summit that happened in London last year, despite restrictive immigration policies in the US and the UK, we saw both governments introduce, in the US an executive order and in the UK a measure that was designed to specifically attract AI talent, despite the challenges elsewhere in the immigration system.

What we should start to see is the ability of AI to relieve pressure on migration systems by looking at what are the skills where we can be looking at augmentation of our workforces through AI, as opposed to mass migration of individuals into economies? And it’s one of the things that will happen, along with a greater reliance on virtual workforces.

Lizzy Burden

Okay, really interesting. I want to open the floor to questions from the audience. There’s one at the back. If you wouldn’t mind introducing yourself. The mic is coming to you now.

Thomas Apostolou

Thank you. Thomas Apostolou, a Chatham House member, a second year international relations student at SOAS. I just have a question on internal migration. I believe the majority of migrants in the world are internally displaced, whether for socioeconomic reasons or forced displacement from climate or conflict. I just want to ask the panel whether they think this is largely absent from this discourse and debate. I know that the UN, historically, climates agencies, historically, focus on internal migration, but there’s, of course, a liquidity crisis at the UN and they have limited resources. So, I just want to ask the panel whether they think that states need to focus more on internal migration, especially forced displacement of people due to conflict? ‘Cause this, in turn, might then lead to more international migration and instability in certain regions.

Lizzy Burden

Christa, I feel like that’s got your name on it.

Christa Rottensteiner

That’s it, yeah. Yeah, I think that’s a very good question. I – you know, most people are displaced internally and also, most people would migrate. So, as a choice, they would usually stay closer to home. For example, we’ve talked a little bit of – about climate change, but we know that most people try to stay as close as possible to home. So, we are seeing increasing urbanisation, rather than people moving across borders, which I think is also often forgotten in a global narrative where people just panic about climate migrants. But most people are staying close to home and what’s actually more of a problem is that some people cannot move away from danger.

But then, we – I guess we need to unpick whether people are moving voluntarily or if they’re forcibly displaced, which you mentioned, Thomas. So, the number of people being displaced is ever increasing and that’s a huge concern, both people displaced internally, which is the mano – majority, but also refugees. So, people who have crossed the border and who have a fear of persecution, that number has tripled over the last decade. So, we need to look at solutions and that – yes, that can create instability. And I think what’s often forgotten, also, that it’s the poorer countries, the neighbouring countries of countries in crisis, that host most of the refugees. So, two thirds of refugees are hosted in neighbouring countries. That is a huge struggle financially.

So, when we look at global solutions to these challenges, we need to, of course, look at the root causes, trying to solve crises and support the neighbouring countries, rather than looking very much at downstream of migration. But I also talked about pathways and the opportunities that people bring, so the talents that displaced people can bring that we can tap into. And that’s where I think we can make a real difference, to have safe pathways so that that talent isn’t wasted but can be used.

Lizzy Burden

Okay. We’ve got another question here.

Neil Carmichael

Thank you. I’m Neil Carmichael, I’m a former Member of Parliament, so I’m acutely aware of the perceptions of immigration. But I’m Executive Chair of the Association of Dental Groups right now and we have a chronic shortage of Dentists, not just here, but actually it’s over the whole of Europe, the United States and elsewhere. And I’m struggling all of the time to get it – make it possible, really, for Dentists to come here or be where they want to be. It’s largely because of regulation and it’s also because of, let’s say, differences of professional standards and differences of measuring these things, mutual recognition.

Lizzy Burden

Is that about Turkey teeth?

Neil Carmichael

Beg your pardon? So, I’m wondering, as a way of dealing with these things, if we didn’t – if we shouldn’t look at education more internationally, encourage more cross – our country – cross-border activity, so that we do actually get an easier pathway towards mutual recognition. And that also, we give the comfort to those who actually do want to migrate that they’re actually familiar with what they’re migrating to, because one of the clear problems is that, let’s say Dentists from India, they come over here, it’s a completely different culture and it’s a completely different system, and they have had no warning of it. And it seems to me that the education system could be, let’s say, globalised to make that more palatable.

Lizzy Burden

Okay, Seema, I feel like that’s good for you.

Dr Seema Farazi

So, the – that – so, that’s part of the – so, when we talked about the four streams, that’s, kind of, part of the third stream around these, you know, mobility partnerships and talent partnerships and building much more of a cohesive ecosystem globally. Completely agree with that. The – interestingly, there was a initiative that the UK Government launched a few years around Why UK? So – but there’s probably more that needs to be invested in telling the story of the UK at the moment and helping individuals that are coming into UK economies integrate better.

Like I said, we see so many examples of this, but the potential for individuals who are coming into – who are already in local labour markets, to actually contribute to plug those skills gaps is immense. It feels like it’s a win-win situation because it’s not putting pressure on migration systems, but it’s actually tapping into skills that are already in the local market. See, I agree that what we’d probably want to see there is a refresh of the Why UK? campaign, which really focuses on better integration of migrants in their host economies.

Lizzy Burden

If I can tie in a question that we’ve got online, it’s from Kevin Wilson, and put this to you, El Iza. He asks, “Don’t we run the risk of inciting anti-migrant sentiment without some form of training for the unskilled or under-skilled existing population?” How do you put the two together?

El Iza Mohamedou

Yeah, so two things. I think what we just heard is exactly the kind of storytelling that we need to counter this whole NIMBY culture, which is really from the companies themselves in the private sector saying, “We need these people.” So, I think that’s really important. It has been quite useful in some countries to really put forward the local businesses saying, “Well, I can’t as a restaurant, I can’t as a Dentist, I can’t really function without this.” So, I think that’s really an important storytelling, because a lot of this, you were talking about facts, but a lot of this is around storytelling, so that’s one thing.

When it comes to education, so I think to answer your question, it’s not an either/or. It’s upskilling, reskilling, plus migration. Without the two, it’s not going to work. So, I think that’s really important to put out there. Economically, it’s not going to work, in addition to the whole social – importance around innovation and so on. When it comes to education and training, that – we think, at the OECD, it’s particularly important to work on international assessments of skills. And so that’s one thing that we’re working now particularly around vocation education and training to ensure that there is an international assessment of those skills. Because I think a lot of the cases around vocation education and training, we focus on the technical skills rather than the other type of transversal skills that these young people, or sometimes adults, have and can be used in other sectors. And so, for us, it’s really important to work around this international recognition to ensure that the mobility is. It’s really about comforting both the students themselves and the young people and the adults, but also the companies that will hire them, that they have the qualifications that are needed.

Lizzy Burden

Hmmm. Any more questions in the room? There’s a lady here.

Beatriz Martinez

Hi, wonderful discussion, thank you so much. My name is Beatriz Martinez and I – from the IBA, the International Bar Association, so it’s a Lawyers’ association. Maybe I’m off topic, but I was just wondering – and apologies because I’m Spanish and the term in English escapes me, the policies around whether families should have, like – be encouraged to have children or not, birth. Not fertility, but yeah, just around people being encouraged to have children or not. So, I’m just wondering whether – like, what your views are on how to marry this conversation, and we were talking about long-term and coherence of policies before. So, like, what’s your views on how the policies around families having children or not in the future, in the long-term? Does that have anything to do, or does that tie in in any way with the mobility workforce conversation?

Lizzy Burden

Yeah, on the flipside of fertility declines. Does anyone want to take that, or I will pick on you?

El Iza Mohamedou

So, I think – for me, it touches on two things. One is free will, which I think is really important, that we don’t go into, there’s a lot of people here, into people’s bedrooms, very frankly. The other thing is, indeed, we do need to work around the policies to make it easier for working mothers and fathers to work, to upskill, to reskill. And that’s very important around flexible working arrangements, about training, about you – sort of, working from home and so on. So, I think it’s two different discussions and you can see that some of these are tied. That a lot of people would like to have more if they could actually work in those condition and so on. But I think we need to really distinguish the two. The ageing population is – that is one thing, but again, to go back to my point, I don’t think it’s going to happen if we just say, you know, we need to have more babies in these countries and hence, we won’t need migration. I don’t think that’s going to work.

Lizzy Burden

I want to take one final very brief question over here.

Martin Harris

Martin Harris, Chatham House. We touched on the ‘brain drain’ a little bit earlier, but I come from New Zealand. It’s a country where in the last 12 months, 100,000 young New Zealanders, all skilled workers have left, but migration has, kind of, covered that, but there hasn’t been the same level of skills. You’ve spoken about how investing in education is what we need to ensure that our economies grow, but this is not a problem of people not being skilled. This is a problem of people leaving. How do you think governments should retain the talent in their countries?

Lizzy Burden

Your Excellency, maybe you can answer that, because you seem to be attracting talent and retaining talent. Briefly, what do you think?

HE Hadi Badri

Yeah, so, you know, the – just to pick up on what one of my fellow panellists said. You know, the equation is really an and equation and that’s really the Dubai way, being we focus both on attracting talent and nurturing talent that we already have here. And by nurturing talent we already have here, you know, that can be part of the solution around retention. The Dubai way is also working very closely with the private sector through partnerships and by working with the private sector, with education institutions, with global tech leaders, we can create continuous upskilling programmes that really keep talent engage, activated and contributing to the economy.

And so, we have a number of initiatives that cover those kinds of programmes. We have a Dubai Future Accelerators programme, where we offer collaboration between startups, private entities and the government, to solve future challenges through innovation and that keeps, you know, the talent here quite active. And we also have a national programme for Coders, which equips individuals with programming skills, to drive the UAE’s digital transformation. So, our view is really one around if we keep the talent that we have here fresh in terms of their skills, and engaged, then we can keep them for longer.

Lizzy Burden

Okay, what a great way to round it up. Thank you all to the panel for being with us this morning. Thank you, everyone, for your questions online and in the room. I feel like this was the post-post-pandemic edition, but we’re going to have to come back for the post-post-post-pandemic edition of this conversation. Everything will have changed again, but really great to talk to you all and thank you.