The current approach to sanctions on Russia presupposes that a decrease in living standards should prompt a change in the Kremlin’s calculations, or at least in its capacity to wage war. This does not work (or at least, it does not work fast enough). Domestic support for Putin remains high, and absent a deal that satisfies both parties, Russia looks capable of continuing to wage its war well into a fourth year.
The ‘cap’ placed on the price of oil, Russia’s chief source of revenue, was a good plan initially. But all too quickly, Russia was able to mitigate its effects via use of its shadow fleet.
This event explores:
- How the war and sanctions are affecting Russia’s economy?
- The political-economic logic behind the current approach to sanctions and the difficulties of enforcement.
- How Russia is evading sanctions?
- Strategies available for tightening and lowering the oil price cap.
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