As the US–Israel–Iran war escalates, violence is spreading across the region, with Iraq particularly exposed. Bordering Iran and hosting US interests, Iraq’s fragile stability is once again under strain.
Iran‑aligned Iraqi groups, including elements of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have targeted US facilities, while Iran‑backed protesters have attempted to breach the US embassy in Baghdad. In response, the US has struck PMF positions, highlighting Iraq’s exposure to rapid escalation. Growing cross‑border activity along the porous Iran–Iraq frontier is also heightening both security and humanitarian risks.
The fallout extends to Iraq’s economy. Regional instability is disrupting energy infrastructure and export routes, reducing oil output, and threatening further losses if tensions persist around the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq’s reliance on Iranian energy imports leaves it vulnerable to power shortages—historically a trigger for public unrest. Meanwhile, prolonged government formation negotiations after the 2025 elections have weakened political cohesion, raising the risk that external shocks could spill over into domestic instability.
Key questions:
- How is the US–Israel–Iran war reshaping Iraq’s security landscape?
- Can Baghdad realistically maintain its balancing strategy under current conditions?
- How is the stalled government formation process affecting Iraq’s ability to manage external pressures?
- How exposed is Iraq’s economy to sustained regional conflict and disruption?
- What policy options are available to Iraqi leaders and international partners to reduce spillover risks and safeguard stability?
