- The world faces an unprecedented, complex mix of established and emerging risks to food security, as illustrated over the last decade by higher temperature records and recurring episodes of storms, droughts, wildfires, flooding, disease and pest outbreaks. Where these interact with other risk types, such as supply chain disruptions or geopolitical instability, extreme weather and disease can amplify the threats to national food systems and overwhelm siloed response mechanisms. With risks often interconnected through supply chains, financial markets or transboundary climate impacts, threats are increasing in frequency and severity, thereby worsening prospects for food security. These events also imperil the livelihoods of millions and destabilize agri-food systems around the world.
- Early-warning systems are a foundational tool for disaster risk reduction, providing governments, institutions and communities with timely information to prepare and act before risks materialize. These systems monitor, assess and communicate potential outcomes. They are more commonly used to observe natural hazards, both rapid or sudden (e.g. flash floods) and slow-onset (e.g. locust invasion or droughts). While effective in single or dual-hazard scenarios (e.g. responding to natural hazards such as floods, landslides or cyclones), current food security-related early-warning systems are often fragmented – separated by hazard type, institutional ownership and geographic mandate. There is growing, yet little, existing integration of other risk types, such as conflict, disease or dedicated food insecurity warning mechanisms, which could help identify intersectional risks and better understand vulnerabilities.
- This fragmentation limits the ability of these tools to anticipate and respond to the interconnected threats that affect local food systems, such as climate change, pandemics or conflict. Furthermore, early-warning mechanisms often focus on different components of the food system, for example, food availability, and fall short of the coordination needed to address cascading risks (where different risk factors and/or responses can have knock-on effects, sometimes crossing borders and continents) threatening communities, public infrastructure and even social stability more broadly. This paper argues that to effectively support at-risk communities and strengthen food security, early-warning systems must evolve into more comprehensive multi-hazard systems.
- The paper analyses how cascading risks are considered in existing approaches to (1) strengthening risk knowledge; (2) detection, monitoring and forecasting; (3) communication and dissemination; (4) response and preparedness capabilities; and (5) financing early-warning systems and anticipatory action. Our recommendations centre on three areas, with actions required at international, regional, national and subnational levels:
Strengthening the governance of food security early-warning systems and anticipatory action:
- International actors must ensure sustained funding, improve interoperability of data systems, align mandates of existing forecasting initiatives, and elevate the consideration of cascading risks in early-warning and governance structures.
- Regional entities, donors and governments should prioritize investment in and leveraging of existing national or subnational scientific forecasting and monitoring networks to build their multi-risk warning capacities.
- At the national level, there is a need for increased representation of food security and multi-hazard experts in all early warning and disaster response planning. Clear frameworks must define ownership of risks and mechanisms for financing anticipatory responses to address these risks.
Improving the understanding of, and responses to, cascading risks to food systems and the food security of at-risk communities:
- Regional entities should ensure knowledge transfer and capacity-building exchange between regional and national experts. This requires adequate funding and a strong emphasis on community-centred approaches that build local food system resilience.
- Government agencies should integrate real-time monitoring of key drivers of food insecurity to enable timely and informed responses.
- Food security forecasters must collaborate with regional centres and nationally mandated early-warning institutions to ensure coherent, actionable forecasting and monitoring.
- Researchers, civil servants and national civil society should jointly conduct transdisciplinary risk assessments to better understand and prepare for complex, cascading threats to food systems.
Strengthening anticipatory action plans at subnational and national levels:
- International actors must support subnational and national planning through sustainable financing strategies, looking beyond aid, to build complementarities with blended climate finance.
- Regional entities must co-develop indicators based on community and technical food system early-warning knowledge, as well as design communication tools for complex risks.
- At the national level, governments and civil society must develop integrated tools and frameworks with the support of international organizations to monitor evolving risk cascades and ensure this information is used alongside forecasting to complement communication and preparedness plans.
- Finally, at the subnational level, authorities and emergency preparedness actors must develop ways of understanding how communities face impacts, identify where funding gaps are most hindering response and how communities can be better integrated into early-warning and early-action mechanisms.
