Lula eyes Brazil’s G20 summit with plan to tax billionaires

Brazil’s president is likely to target ‘softer’ issues at this November’s gathering – but, analysts tell James Orr, his agenda to raise $250 billion from the super-rich and boost the Global South is ambitious.

The World Today Published 9 September 2024 2 minute READ

James Orr

Journalist on South Asia, the US and the Middle East, Freelance

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces a complicated picture of competing global crises this November as world leaders descend on Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit. Key issues under discussion will range from green finance and a tax on billionaires, to attempts to reform global institutions and efforts to ensure greater coordination on climate adaptation and mitigation.

Uncertainty over the result of this year’s US presidential election, together with geopolitical tensions arising from wars in Ukraine and Gaza, will probably mean the two-day assembly steers clear of divisive challenges in favour of seeking consensus on softer issues. 

Standing for the developing world 

Analysts predict that important headway could be made on debt relief for Southern African nations still recovering from the cost of Covid, as well as agreements on repurposing fossil fuel subsidies to achieve a more equitable energy transition. 

‘My sense is that President Lula is going to use the G20 to act as the version of Lula he promoted during his previous two terms in office: a statesman, mediator and promoter of the Global South and the developing world,’ said Elena Lazarou, an associate fellow of the US and the Americas programme at Chatham House.

Lula’s focus will be on eradicating poverty, hunger and promoting equality – areas that don’t fall into the remit of great power conflict.

Elena Lazarou, an associate fellow, US and the Americas programme, Chatham House.

‘From what we have seen so far, his focus will be on eradicating poverty, eradicating hunger and on promoting equality. These areas don’t really fall into the remit of conflict between great powers, so they could well gain traction.’

This year’s G20 is expected to be attended by President Xi Jinping of China, and Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, as well as leading G7 figures including Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, and President Emmanuel Macron of France. 

Vladimir Putin is unlikely to take part due to the International Criminal Court’s decision in March 2023 to issue an arrest warrant for the Russian president for the forced deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia. Meanwhile, whether US President Joe Biden joins the November 18 summit is unclear. Should the Democrats lose the election, experts suggest the lengthy process of making way for a Republican administration will make his appearance unlikely.

Three policy priorities 

Last year, Lula said the theme of Brazil’s G20 presidency would be ‘Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet’. His agenda highlighted three policy priorities: fighting inequality, promoting social inclusion and fighting hunger; combating climate change, promoting energy transition and sustainable development; and reforming global governance institutions.

Lula always managed to use foreign policy to improve his domestic support, but now it risks becoming a liability.

Feliciano Guimaraes, Professor of International Relations at the University of Sao Paulo.

Lula will hope to use the summit to garner international support for a 2 per cent tax on the world’s billionaires to help raise funds to fight inequality. According to one study, such a levy on the super-rich could generate up to $250 billion a year.

Elsewhere, President Xi will try to convince Brazil to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure project. Brazil is one of the few South American countries not officially signed up to the programme, despite being the continent’s biggest recipient of Chinese investment.

Success in Rio

‘Showing the world that Brazil can not only organize a G20 summit but also come up with a final declaration will be a victory for Lula, especially if he manages to tackle the three priorities with concrete steps,’ said Feliciano Guimaraes, Professor of International Relations at the University of Sao Paulo.

‘During his first two administrations, Lula always managed to use foreign policy as a tool to improve his domestic support, but now it risks becoming a liability for him.’