Conclusion
Previous generations understood the necessity of a rules-based international system. They experienced cataclysmic wars, notably those ending in 1815, 1918 and 1945. Although there is no imminent prospect of a great-power war today, the dense structure of post-war institutions, rules and norms that for decades has underpinned a relatively stable and open international order is decaying faster than many could have predicted. This decay, combined with the growing recklessness of some global and regional powers, is worrying. Self-restraint and a network of functioning institutions help to buffer the international system from shocks; in their absence, isolated crises are more likely to spiral into larger confrontations. We can see similarities in the situation in Europe in the early 1910s, leading up to the First World War, when national leaders appeared blind – perhaps wilfully so – to the decaying foundations of continental stability. One historian refers to those leaders as ‘sleepwalkers’ because they failed to recognize the corrosive effects of their own increasing recklessness.50 Yet somnambulism is no excuse for today’s leaders, who have the benefit of hindsight as regards the outcome of that story.
Many middle powers have been warning of the dangers inherent in the decline of the liberal international order. Moreover, they have a clear interest in sustaining that order, since it protects them not only from systemic instability, but also from a world of unrestrained great-power politics. The time has come for these countries to translate their warnings into concerted action. Middle powers need to launch a campaign to sustain and reform key parts of the international order. They need to decide who will do what, with whom, how, and to what end. They need to organize.
The task is daunting and there is no guarantee of success. Indeed, the results of this campaign may be inconsistent and messy, but they do not need to be perfect. The goal – to paraphrase former Secretary-General of the UN Dag Hammarskjöld – is not to deliver us to heaven. Saving us from hell would do just fine.
50 Clark, C. (2012), The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, New York: HarperCollins.