Between Order and Chaos

A New Approach to Stalled State Transformations in Iraq and Yemen

Research paper

Published 9 September 2019

Updated 8 February 2021

ISBN: 978 1 78413 358 0

Traffic policeman (de facto authorities) in Sanaa, Yemen. Photo: Peter Salisbury

—

Traffic policeman (de facto authorities) in Sanaa, Yemen. Photo: Peter Salisbury

Dr Renad Mansour

Deputy Director, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Peter Salisbury

Former Senior Consulting Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

International policymakers have failed to stabilize states such as Iraq and Yemen, partially because of the assumed binary distinction between state failure and success. This paper advocates for a ‘middle–out’ approach that aims to strengthen the connectivity between the bureaucracy and de facto authorities.

Summary

In the Middle East and North Africa, a growing number of internationally recognized (de jure) states with formal borders and governments lack de facto statehood. Often, governance vacuums are filled by alternative actors that perform state-like functions in place of, or alongside, weakened official institutions. This results in hybrid orders where the distinction between formal and informal actors in the state is blurred, as too are the lines between the formal, informal and illicit economies.
International policymakers have struggled to establish political settlements in these contexts. Would-be state-builders have mistakenly assumed a binary distinction between state failure and success. They have sought to recreate an idealized archetype of the ‘orderly’ state, critically failing to recognize the more complex networks of de facto actors on the ground. At times, international policymakers pick or support leaders who lack local legitimacy, capability and power. This stalls and fragments ongoing organic state transformations, and produces hybrid orders as de facto actors adapt by both capturing state institutions and creating parallel ones.
We propose a new model for understanding the fragmentary transformations of the state under way in Iraq and Yemen. It involves the concept of a multi-layered state, consisting of the executive, the formal bureaucracy, the de facto authorities and society at large. The gap in legitimacy, capability and power between the middle two layers in this model – the formal bureaucracy and the de facto authorities – is a critical source of instability and an impediment to reform. Bridging that gap is thus the key to effective peacebuilding and/or state-building.
This paper argues that all states lie along a chaos–order spectrum. No state is entirely chaotic or orderly. Even those that display many features of chaos – as in Iraq and Yemen – contain pockets of order that are all too often overlooked. The larger the gap between the formal bureaucracy and the de facto authorities, the more a state slides towards the chaos end of the spectrum. Effective state-building must find a way of institutionalizing improvised governance arrangements.
To achieve this, we advocate a ‘middle–out’ approach that aims to strengthen the connective tissues between the bureaucracy and de facto authorities. Simplified, this more inclusive approach entails reframing international involvement as playing the role of a ‘referee’ to monitor the transformations of the state while enforcing accountability, as opposed to the practice of picking ‘winners’ and integrating unfavoured actors into unpopular political settlements.

Next chapter

Topic themes

Defence and security

Economics and trade

Environment

Health

Institutions

Major powers

Politics and law

Society

Technology

Regions

Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Middle East and North Africa

Russia and Eurasia

Foreign policy and international affairs events

Publications

Become a member

The Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership and the Next Generation

About us

Between Order and Chaos

Dr Renad Mansour

Peter Salisbury

Summary

Iraqi civilians are paying the price of the Iran war

The Iran war is exacting a heavy toll on Gulf oil and gas exporters – and creating risk and opportunity in North Africa

What Nouri al-Maliki’s prime minister bid tells us about Iraq

Iraq 2025 election: Reform candidates pushed out by a system that rejects change

Iraq elections 2025: How votes are won and what the results could mean for Iraq’s fragile stability

Iraq’s water crisis: Dammed by neighbours, failed by leaders

Iraq’s fragile stability is threatened by a shifting Middle Eastern order

The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’

Iraq’s young agents of change