Conclusions
Successful economic transition in Sudan will require the establishment of a conducive environment for reform, built on political transformation, the forging of a new social contract, and a comprehensive and just peace. Sudan’s transitional authorities have the opportunity to undertake near- and long-term economic reforms, and at the same time establish public confidence.
Achieving comprehensive peace is essential for economic reform and democratic transition, and sustained economic growth is necessary to underpin a durable peace. Moreover, economic transformation will necessitate governance reforms that prioritize broader political participation, respect for human rights, increased public accountability and transparency, and strengthened anti-corruption efforts. The right sequencing of political, economic, security sector and social reforms will be imperative to ensure consistency.
The reform of public sector and financial institutions must be accompanied by deeper systemic changes to the central decision-making processes of government, ensuring a separation between different state functions that allows them to operate independently. Furthermore, a professional and sustainable civil service needs to be established that is representative of all sectors of Sudanese society. Public institutions such as the central bank and the judiciary must have their independence enshrined in law. To ensure greater transparency and public accountability, Sudan’s ministry of finance should be charged with coordinating the budgets of all other ministries; linked to this, it must have greater oversight of the economic cluster of ministries.
The transitional government urgently needs to develop a near-term action plan to stabilize the economy and prevent collapse. This should prioritize the pursuit of fiscal reforms and measures to contain inflationary pressures. There is a need to identify an achievable set of economic interventions, relatively immune from political pressures, that can keep Sudan’s economy moving and set the country on the path towards reform. Additionally, Sudan’s national budget should be accurately calculated and transparently restructured. Security, state transfers and subsidies have together accounted for 70 per cent of spending under the official budget; and priorities must be realigned to ensure greater emphasis on health, education and social welfare, which are at present together allocated less than 10 per cent of the budget.
The sustainable management of Sudan’s sovereign debt burden, which amounts to between $50 billion and $60 billion, must be central to any long-term strategy. In the short term, resuming serious conversations with international financial institutions will be critical to building the confidence of the international community and unlocking external support.
The transitional government has a clear opportunity to develop a long-term national economic vision, and to forge a narrative of building a more inclusive and equitable system of economic governance that is representative of all sectors of society. Sudan needs a comprehensive strategy to develop its productive sectors as drivers of growth, in particular through agro-industry. A national centre of research for the development of the productive sectors should be established to lead this strategy. The transitional government should also work to fully account for and formalize revenues from oil and gold production. Careful planning should be undertaken ahead of establishing a sovereign wealth fund that ensures sufficient revenues from national resources are reinvested in infrastructure, services and social welfare provision.
The current system of federalism must be comprehensively reviewed. The long-term aim should be to apply a rules-based fiscal policy across all states that will facilitate multiple poles of growth across Sudan. The aim should be to rationalize expenditure, and to restructure transfers to enable greater allocations to less developed and marginalized states and rehabilitate the conflict areas.
Moreover, Sudan’s long-entrenched patterns of power and privilege, political nepotism and patronage networks need to be addressed, including the causes and consequences of marginalization. There is an opportunity to address the role of women, who have been among the leaders of the uprising, through significant changes in governance. The government must commit to ensuring the greater representation of women and young people in governance structures and decision-making bodies, and take account of the priorities of Sudanese youth in the reforms that will shape their future. This includes prioritizing better access to high-quality education and enhanced employment opportunities.
Ultimately, by ensuring that the political and economic reform agenda is broad-based and inclusive – of women and young people, disadvantaged groups and peripheral areas of the country – Sudan’s transitional authorities can build an enduring system of civilian-led governance founded on equal citizenship and representative institutions.