Tanzania’s re-emergence from insularity has begun to deliver benefits. The foreign policy review offers an opportunity to adopt a more assertive strategic vision and safeguard against a return to isolation.
Tanzania has reaped some early rewards from its return under President Samia from the isolationism of her predecessor, taking significant strides towards rebuilding diversity and trust in its international relations. The breadth and variety of engagements – many owing to the agency and initiative of the Samia administration – have unlocked increased choice and provided greater resilience in the pursuit of major economic projects and goals.
But the insularity of the Magufuli administration did not develop in a vacuum, nor have its negative consequences been fully addressed. A rush for political legacy via infrastructure deals with China in Kikwete’s second term helped to fuel a backlash after 2015, while Magufuli’s legacy still looms large in reactionary regional spats and ongoing suspicion of new investment projects. The long-term risk of slipping into a default mode of cautious disengagement – or worse, a return to full isolation – still therefore exists.
The government’s current review of foreign policy presents a critical opportunity to respond to these concerns. The review will undoubtedly provide encouragement on numerous issues raised in this research paper. Many of these are straightforward and uncontroversial: quick wins could be achieved simply by including passing references to the ‘blue economy’ or climate change, for example. These issues are indeed important priorities, but their inevitable inclusion should not encourage complacency.
The real task for Tanzania’s foreign policy review lies in outlining a more assertive strategic vision, delivering proactive implementation, and aligning both of these with more effective internal coordination. The latter must include giving foreign policy a central role in Tanzania’s Vision 2050 development strategy, and aligning other policies on climate change and critical minerals to take full advantage of global opportunities.
In the regional setting, Tanzania’s relations with neighbours including Kenya and Mozambique have been placed on a more stable footing under Samia’s presidency. There is now a clear platform to boost institutional leadership by ratifying initiatives such as the TFTA, reasserting commitment to mediation and conflict resolution, and rejoining the AfCHPR. Such steps would be commensurate both with Tanzania’s historical role in the region and its anticipated economic trajectory.
External investment in major infrastructure projects has emerged at the forefront of economic diplomacy, and influences engagement with a group of emerging strategic partners. But as the controversy around Dar es Salaam port shows, the government’s actions have suffered from a lack of transparency and clear communication of benefits, fuelling a perceived separation between state and public interests that has been exacerbated by a repressive response against critical voices from civil society, churches and political opponents.
A straightforward reassertion of non-aligned economic diplomacy would not fully reflect the proactive work that has already been done to rebuild Tanzania’s global image, nor the work that is still to be done. President Samia has stated that the goal of her foreign policy is for Tanzania to return to its ‘proper place’ of international leadership. A foreign policy refresh that is assertive and highlights positive aspects of strategic neutrality would be a significant step towards achieving that goal.
The following recommendations are intended to guide Tanzanian leaders in the design and implementation of their new foreign policy strategy. They may equally help to foster better understanding of Tanzania’s foreign policy among its external partners.
- Take a more proactive approach to regional economic integration. Tanzania must seize opportunities in its immediate region, better anticipating its expected rise as the largest economy in East Africa and helping to safeguard the viability of the EACOP and SGR projects. Beyond minimizing brinkmanship and disputes with Kenya in particular, priority actions should include ratifying the TFTA and endorsing a more active role for the TIC in supporting Tanzanian investments in the wider region.
- Consolidate the country’s role in regional conflict resolution. Such an effort would not only highlight Tanzania’s historical record and the established reputation of Arusha as a location for hosting talks, but increasingly provide a role for Zanzibar. As Tanzania joins the SADC mission in the eastern DRC, it could mitigate accusations of divided loyalties by leading more actively on other aspects of EAC security cooperation, particularly in the maritime space, which is set to be a new strategic focus under the foreign policy review.
- Rejoin multilateral governance and legal initiatives, particularly the AfCHPR and the OGP. To further signal a clear break with the unpredictability of the past, Tanzania should put in place legal reforms to require parliamentary approval for future withdrawals from international frameworks.
- Ensure the new strategy explicitly highlights a goal to engage with, and learn from the experience of, other middle-income countries. This could include working with existing partners in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as further developing relations with Indonesia and Vietnam. In the interests of maintaining geopolitical balance and avoiding the risks of personalized relationships, engagements should clearly demonstrate a separation of the CCM party and the Tanzanian state.
- Effectively align international trading relationships with long-term economic ambitions. Recognizing its expectation to graduate from least-developed country status (see recommendation above), Tanzania could consider how resuming the EPA negotiation process with the EU might secure commitment to increased funding support on areas such as phytosanitary standards and mineral-processing.
- Embrace international leadership opportunities to advance core principles of South–South cooperation. For example, Tanzania could signal its intent to seek non-permanent membership of the UN Security Council (UNSC) for the first time since 2006, signalling harmony with its existing peacekeeping contributions. A campaign for the UNSC could be tied in with a call for wider reform of the UN system to allow greater African representation, building on President Samia’s existing statements on the subject.
- Be transparent about foreign investment agreements and allow dissenting views on foreign policy to be aired freely. It is vital for the sustainability of a more open foreign policy that Tanzanian political leaders avoid the temptation of short-term populism, including in public consultations on the new strategy – particularly ahead of elections in 2025. One of the main lessons from the Dar es Salaam port controversy is that a heavy-handed response to criticism can encourage the emergence of conspiracy theories, exacerbate isolationist tendencies and in turn discourage the involvement of external partners in essential major projects, such as Bagamoyo port.
- Go beyond simple platitudes when mentioning climate change and other environmental issues. The new foreign policy strategy is expected to include specific mentions of climate change and the environment for the first time. The review must not merely touch on these subjects, but instead help to create a reference point for Tanzanian officials, particularly as they engage in international forums alongside Tanzania’s pursuit of the EACOP and natural gas projects. The development of a critical minerals strategy should also be aligned with the country’s objectives in economic diplomacy and its public statements on climate change.
- Signal the new approach and distinguish the new foreign policy strategy from that of the previous administration with refreshed terminology. To be effective, the new strategy must be seen as a turning point, and must reject entrenched norms of hesitation or suspicion in external relations. Merely retaining the same basic strategic framing of economic diplomacy and non-alignment, while simply adding new themes, would convey a message of greater passivity than Tanzania’s ambitions deserve. Zambia’s references to ‘positive neutrality’, India’s ‘multi-alignment’ and Malaysia’s ‘equidistant diplomacy’ all provide guiding examples in this respect.