With the Philippines as ASEAN chair, a South China Sea agreement is unlikely to be concluded in 2026

Tensions between China and the Philippines make agreement on a South China Sea code of conduct unlikely. But there are other ways for the Philippines to use its ASEAN chairmanship to advance its strategic security goals.

Expert comment

Published 9 December 2025 — 4 minute READ

Image — Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (R) is given the ceremonial gavel by Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (L) during the ASEAN chairmanship handing over ceremony, in Kuala Lumpur on 28 October 2025. Photo: MOHD RASFAN/AFP via Getty Images.

Bianka Venkataramani

Coordinator, Global Governance and Security Centre

As the Philippines takes up the 2026 ASEAN chairmanship, it looks set to be a challenging year for President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr (BBM). He will have to balance this more prominent foreign policy role with an increasingly tough domestic situation, with growing calls for his resignation amid large scale anti-corruption protests. Nonetheless, President Marcos has set out an ambitious agenda for his country’s ASEAN chairmanship with three main areas of interest: peace and security; prosperity and economic ties; and people empowerment. 

But despite the wide scope of these aims, it is clear that his main goal is to strengthen maritime security. Agreeing a South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC) with China has been on ASEAN’s agenda since 2002, with formal negotiations opening in 2018 and a view to conclude by July 2026.The Philippine government is optimistic that a consensus will be reached soon and has expressed strong confidence in the cooperation of all parties. 

But how realistic is this optimism? The Philippines has complicated relations with China, a complex and jam-packed ASEAN agenda to navigate next year, as well as an increasingly rough domestic landscape. And would pushing for completion of the CoC actually be the best way for the Philippines to secure its long-term security interests?

ASEAN’s many challenges 

Agreeing a South China Sea Code of Conduct (CoC) with China has been on ASEAN’s agenda since 2002.

The 2026 agenda for the incoming ASEAN chair is already packed. The most pressing challenge will be monitoring and responding to two major internal security fissures. 

First is the ongoing border dispute between ASEAN members Thailand and Cambodia. Clashes between the neighbours erupted in July of 2025 and a ceasefire agreement was mediated by Malaysia in their role as ASEAN chair. But renewed fighting erupted in early December with open fire on both sides and Thailand launching airstrikes. 

Second, and more complex, is responding to the military junta in Myanmar. Following a military coup in 2021, the bloc has made numerous efforts to negotiate a peaceful resolution, notably adopting a ‘five-point consensus’ which failed to achieve anything of note. This consensus was reviewed by ASEAN in October and it will fall to the Philippines to follow up and lead on implementation. This is both a strategic challenge and symbolic challenge for the Philippines, as failure will further call into question ASEAN’s legitimacy as a peace-making body – and the Philippines’ ability to lead negotiations. 

There are other issues for the Philippines to deal with too. There is the challenge of incorporating new member Timor Leste, which may prove a struggle given the bloc’s perennial issues with development disparities hampering overall integration aims. As chair, the Philippines will also be responsible for spearheading the new ASEAN Community Vision 2045, which was launched last year. The 20-year roadmap aims to strengthen resilience and innovation and tackle shared issues such as climate change and economic inequality.

Trouble brewing at home

Back in Manila, things are going from bad to worse for the Marcos administration. In the wake of an extremely harsh series of typhoons that left much of the country devastated, protestors took to the streets to protest against the misappropriation of government funds that were meant to shore up the country’s typhoon defences, resulting in substandard or unfinished projects. This massive corruption scandal has been blamed for exacerbating the effects of the rough typhoon season, leading to many avoidable deaths. Marcos has been scrambling to respond, calling for probes into various government departments, and for the resignation of culpable officials. 

But despite his best efforts to quell dissent, opinion polls in late November show his approval rating is at an all-time low. Tensions heightened when a prominent civil servant involved in the corruption scandal alleged that the president directed him to misappropriate funds to the tune of $1.76 billion – not helped by reports that the president’s personal wealth has grown by 1600% since 2005. With the Philippine economy reportedly on a downward trend and calls for Marcos’ resignation only getting louder, it is clear that his focus is political survival. 

Accepting failure to achieve success

Even without these challenges, achieving a CoC agreement with China on the South China Sea would have been a tall order. Three key challenges remain. 

First is disagreement on legal implementation. The Philippines, in particular, is adamant that whatever is agreed should be legally binding and monitored by ASEAN-led mechanisms, a stance which is strongly opposed by China. Second, during negotiations Beijing has proposed the banning of joint military drills with non-Southeast Asian countries (impossible given the complex web of external alliances in the South China Sea) and limiting the ability of parties to undertake oil and gas exploration in the region. This was met with a resounding rejection and remains a key point of contention. Third and final, ASEAN’s position in the talks is undermined by internal divisions – member states have competing and overlapping claims in the South China Sea, making a united front very difficult to achieve. 

As tensions between the Philippines and China remain high with frequent confrontations at sea, it is very unlikely that CoC negotiations will reach a successful conclusion with the Philippines at the helm, despite clear appetite for a win from the Marcos government. Instead, it would be wise for the Philippines to change tack and take a more pragmatic approach the ASEAN chairmanship. 

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The best outcome for the Philippines would be to set the next chair, Singapore, up for success in concluding CoC talks. Singapore has a good relationship with China and will be better placed to handle talks amicably. Singaporean officials have also made it clear that they see China as a friend and partner in trade – an approach that is likely to yield better results. In the meantime, the Philippine government should take advantage of the recently upgraded ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement to deepen the bloc’s economic ties with China and increase supply chain connectivity in the region.

The Philippines should use the coming year to develop and strengthen confidence-building measures between China and ASEAN members, including setting up communication hotlines between coast guards, providing advance notice of military drills, and organizing joint search-and-rescue missions in moments of crisis. It should also aim to strengthen consensus within the bloc on shared security priorities, to help mitigate issues caused by infighting. Although it may not be able to reach agreement on the CoC, the Philippines can secure its long-term strategic interests by using its ASEAN chairmanship to create favourable conditions for future negotiations.