Almost a year after US President Donald Trump unveiled his 20-point peace plan for Gaza, which was adopted by both Israel and Hamas and paved the way for the release of all Israeli hostages, the peace process appears to have hit a wall.
The two sides remain fundamentally divided over the sequencing of demilitarization and Israeli withdrawal. So far, Hamas has refused to give up its heavy weapons unless Israel halts all military operations and withdraws its forces from the parts of Gaza it currently controls – approximately 60 per cent of the strip – while Israel says it will not withdraw until Hamas disarms.
Although President Trump continues to argue that the situation in Gaza is under control, his envoy Jared Kushner, who recently visited Israel, and the director-general of his Board of Peace, Nikolay Mladenov, have so far been unable to launch the second phase of the process.
In September, Kushner acknowledged that the task of demilitarizing Gaza was proving far more difficult than initially expected: ‘We are starting to understand the scope of the militarization of Gaza. It is beyond your comprehension’. In August, he had told Fox News that he expected Hamas to begin handing over its weapons in ‘as few as 30 days’.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains critical according to an August report by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) – and there is little hope for reconstruction given the current stalemate. According to the OCHA report, 58 per cent of Gaza’s population is facing ‘severe deficiencies in shelter conditions or access to essential services and non-food items’, while a severely strained health system and lack of medical supplies could put lifesaving services at risk.
Arab Gulf countries like UAE (which is also a member of the Board of Peace) are key providers of humanitarian aid to Gaza. In fact, UAE aid accounts for 46 per cent of global assistance. But what is their position on the current stalemate in Gaza and could they help find a way to break the deadlock?
In August, eight Arab and Islamic countries – Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey and Qatar – condemned Israel’s unwillingness to proceed with the implementation of Trump’s plan for Gaza, saying its stance threatens international efforts to end the war.
In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of these countries denounced Israel’s stated opposition to a roadmap for completing Trump’s broader Gaza plan, which was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2803. The group also called for Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups to disarm; an Israeli military withdrawal; the deployment of an international stabilization force; the transfer of administrative authority to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza; and the reconstruction of Gaza.
In May, it was reported that the UAE had contributed $100 million for training of new Gaza police force – an important feature that will help provide security in post-war Gaza. However, Israeli officials reportedly barred the already vetted new recruits from leaving the strip for training in Cairo, and for now it is unclear when permission to leave and return to Gaza will be granted – if at all.
Although the UAE and other Arab members of the Board of Peace did not comment on this report, it is clear that their frustration with the Israeli government over Gaza and the West Bank is mounting. In August, the inaugural ‘Emirates loves Palestine’ event was held in Dubai, celebrating the connection between the UAE and the Palestinian people, while a delegation from a UAE future leaders programme were sent to Egypt to learn about – and take part in – UAE efforts to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Indeed, the UAE is particularly important in this context as it is one of the signatories of the Abraham Accords and one of Israel’s closest partners in the Gulf and the Arab world. But other Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have also sharpened their condemnation of recent radical statements by Israeli officials on the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, as well as increasing settler violence in the West Bank. Trump, meanwhile, has insisted that a controversial nuclear deal signed with Saudi Arabia this summer hinges on Saudi normalization with Israel. But despite US pressure, it seems the Saudis will not divert significantly from their demand to establish a clear path for Palestinian statehood.
Due to the Iran war and its fallout, Gulf Arab states are more preoccupied with their own domestic security and economic challenges than at any point in recent memory. And with only weeks to go until Israel’s pivotal October elections, they also retain a measure of hope that a change of government could open the way to more constructive engagement.
Leading opposition candidates in Israel have been critical of Netanyahu’s policies on both Gaza and the West Bank. Many of them believe that Israel needs to involve the Arab states, and in particular Saudi Arabia, in future dealings with the Palestinians. A new Israeli government could also prove significantly tougher on settler violence in the West Bank and more flexible on alternative Palestinian governance in Gaza to unseat Hamas.
However, if the current governing coalition remains in power, more drastic and radical steps might follow. This could include construction in the E1 strategic perimeter, which would drive a wedge through the West Bank and undermine prospects of a future Palestinian state, as well as a possible escalation in Gaza.
For now, Gulf states are focusing on two key diplomatic instruments in their response to the ongoing stalemate in Gaza. One is humanitarian assistance, the other is pointed condemnations of Israel, which is increasingly perceived in Arab capitals as the primary obstacle to the implementation of Trump’s peace plan.
At present, it seems unlikely that Gulf states will change tactics. Even less likely that they will withdraw support for Trump’s peace plan and the Board of Peace, or press for urgent, extraordinary measures, such as sanctions on Israel or an intervention by Trump himself. But this calculus may well be revised in the aftermath of the Israeli elections, depending on the outcome. It will also remain contingent on the broader strategic environment in the Gulf, not least the risk of renewed hostilities.
Until something breaks the stalemate, the population of Gaza will continue to be caught between Hamas and the Israeli government – both waiting for the other to make the first move.