Russia's war: How will it shape the region's future?

This conference takes a deep-dive into the implications of the war for the wider region.

Conference Recording
1 December 2022 — 9:00AM TO 6:00PM
Chatham House and Online

The video on this page is of the opening session only. To view all the session videos, please visit the conference playlist on YouTube.

How will Russia’s war shape the region’s future?

Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine is on such a scale that it will have a seismic effect on all the countries that once formed the Soviet empire. Vladimir Putin’s decisions have accelerated trends across the region leading to unintended consequences.

Now it is more crucial than ever – not only for those concerned with the region’s economic and democratic development, but for all those with a stake in the future security of Europe.

For some states, this will mean a faster break from the legacy of the USSR and from Russia’s ‘Geopathological embrace‘ while, for others, maybe even a fresh start at democracy and good governance.

In isolated cases, the war will conceivably hasten assimilation with Russia. But the two principal combatants, Ukraine and Russia, will diverge even further. Ukraine, though fighting for its survival now, will at least get the opportunity to ‘build back better’ if it achieves some form of victory.

Whatever the course of the war, however, Russia’s aspirations to be a global power again are doomed as it is gradually deglobalized from Western structures.

This conference analyses:

  • How Russia’s war will affect the broader regional economy and whether this will hasten Vladimir Putin’s exit
  • What to hope for, what to fear and the key trends that will dominate the region going forward.
  • Unique expertise in an independent forum on what’s at stake for Europe. 

Session recording

— The expert panel chaired by James Nixey discusses what kind of Russia will emerge from the war.

Who attends

Chatham House exterior.

The venue

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Agenda

Thursday 1 December

Welcome and introduction


Speaker
James Nixey, Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

0915–0930

What kind of Russia will emerge from the war?

  • What will the war do to Russia and the Russian people?

  • How will the West deal with a potentially more isolated Russia?

  • Can Russia transform the way it sees the region and what will it take for such change to occur?


  • What kind of defeat for Russia could be beneficial or disastrous for Russia and the world?

  • Can there ever be a better Russia and if so, how?

  • Can we and should we hasten Putin’s exit?

  • What will Russia’s brain drain do to it and to the rest of the world?

  • What is the future of Russia’s campaign for global influence?

Speakers
Anna Dyner, Political Analyst, Polish Institute of International Affairs
Keir Giles, Senior Consulting Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Nikolai Petrov, Senior Research Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Dr Joanna Szostek, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: James Nixey, Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

0930–1045

Networking break

1045–1115

Ukraine's reconstruction

  • What are the best conditions to enable rapid recovery?

  • Can and will the West do enough to help Ukraine?

  • Can Ukraine’s history of corruption be transcended?


  • What are the best conditions to enable rapid recovery?

  • What is the current and likely future mix of funding sources among Russian assets, loans, grants, EU structural funds, development finance bonds and FDI?

  • Is the EU market now Ukraine’s economic home front?

  • Will ‘war innovation’ modernize post-war Ukraine and if so, how?

  • What are the prospects for the reintegration of Ukraine’s occupied territories?

  • What might Ukraine’s democracy look like in the short/medium term?

Speakers
Olena Bilan, 
Head of Research, Dragon Capital
John Lough, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Orysia Lutsevych, Head and Research Fellow, Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Kataryna Wolczuk, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Simon Smith, Chairman, Steering Committee, Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

1115–1230

Networking lunch

1230–1330

The regional economy

  • How is the wider economy fairing in light of the sanctions on Russia?

  • How much will the war change the economic interlinkages within the region and its links to other trade partners?

  • Which countries have a shot at a prosperous future and which are unlikely to survive beyond 2050?


  • Will diversification away from Russian markets decrease vulnerability?

  • How does Russia use its regional connections to avoid sanctions?

  • What are Russia’s prospects in a greening world?

  • What is the future energy mix for, and from, the region?

  • What will Russia’s economy look like if it continues to deglobalize?

  • What is the appropriate level of western support and investment to the region?

Speakers
Timothy Ash, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Annette Bohr, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Vladimir Milov, Russian economist and opposition politician
Veronika Movchan, Academic Director, Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting
Maria Shagina, Diamond-Brown Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Chair: Creon Butler, Research Director, Trade, Investment and New Governance Models, and Director Global Economy and Finance Programme, Chatham House

1330–1445

Networking break

1445–1515

Breakout session: The future of Central Asia

  • Does the war mean the end of multi-vectorism for some Central Asian countries?

  • How will the war change Central Asia?

  • Which countries might prosper and which are likely to fail?


  • What is the potential for instability after the war?

  • How will decreased Russian military presence impact security?

  • What new risk of internal or inter-state conflict is there?

  • Can the region break free from its Soviet legacy?

  • Where does Russia’s leverage still lie?

  • Where will Russia’s displeasure with Kazakhstan’s neutral position end?

  • How will Russia respond to renewed interest in the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline?

  • Can Central Asia avoid swapping Russia’s dominion for China’s?

  • What is the West’s future role in Central Asia?

Speakers
David Lewis, Professor of Global Politics, University of Exeter
Kate Mallinson, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Dossym Satpayev, Independent Political Analyst and Director, Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group
Chair: Annette Bohr, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

1515–1630

Breakout session: The future of the South Caucasus

  • How will the war change the South Caucasus?

  • Which countries might prosper and which are likely to fail?

  • Can the Karabakh conflict be resolved and can Armenian-Azerbaijani relations normalize?


  • What kind of defeat for Russia could be beneficial or disastrous for Russia and the world?

  • Will Russia leave Azerbaijan’s territory after 2025?

  • How much room for manoeuvre does Armenia have?

Speakers
Laurence Broers, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Nino Evgenidze, Executive Director, Economic Policy Research Center
Zaur Shiriyev, Analyst, South Caucasus, International Crisis Group
Mikayel Zolyan, Political Analyst, V. Brusov Yerevan State Linguistic University
Chair: Ľubica Polláková, Assistant Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

1515–1630

Breakout session: The future for Belarus

  • What would the various possible outcomes of war mean for Belarus?

  • What factors constrain the Belarusian regime from entering the war?

  • Is Belarus now indistinguishable from Russia for Western policy and should it be?


  • How can pro-democratic forces gain more influence inside the country?

  • What does Belarus have going for it in a post-Lukashenka world? 

Speakers
Dr Ryhor Astapenia, Academy Associate Director and Belarus Initiative Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Anaïs Marin, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Anton Radniankou, Director, Center for New Ideas
Chair: Samantha de Bendern, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

1515–1630

Breakout session: The future of Moldova

  • How resilient is Moldova to Russian coercion?

  • What levers does Russia use to undermine progress?

  • Is neutrality sustainable and justifiable?


  • Are Moldova’s governance improvements linear/assured and if not what can stop them?

  • Is it time to move beyond Transnistria or might Transnistria be part of any Ukraine peace deal?

  • Is neutrality sustainable and justifiable? Should Moldova re-arm or modernize its army?

  • What setbacks has Moldova faced on law enforcement and judiciary reform?

  • Are Western institutions in blocking progress?

Speakers
Valeriu Pasha, Program Manager, WatchDog.MD
Nicu Reutoi, Associate Director, Alaco Ltd
Victoria Roșa, Researcher and Member of the Board, Foreign Policy Association of Moldova
Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham
Chair: Kataryna Wolczuk, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

1515–1630

Networking break

1630–1645

Key trends to watch out for across the region

  • What should we call and how should we define this region?

  • Will the term ‘near abroad’ still make sense in 10 years? Does it even make sense today?

  • Does the region conceivably have a bright future or is it destined to be a backwater?

What can we hope for, and what do we have to fear?


Speakers
James Nixey, Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Stefan Meister, Head of Program, International Order and Democracy, German Council on Foreign Relations
Dossym Satpayev, Independent Political Analyst and Director, Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group
Kataryna Wolczuk, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Chair: Orysia Lutsevych, Head of Research Fellow, Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

1645–1745

Drinks reception

Drinks reception to take place in the Neil Malcolm Room.

1745–1900

End of conference

1900

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