Bronwen Maddox
Right, is everyone sitting comfortably? A very warm welcome to Chatham House. I’m Bronwen Maddox, the Director. Very good to see so many of you here today, and welcome to those on the livestream. Very, very glad to be welcoming here today Ehud Barak. Can I say the timing could not be better for this, and that is not intended as a – as like a…
Ehud Barak
Easy to be here.
Bronwen Maddox
We’re going to come onto the many, many things we have to discuss in a moment, but let me say – as someone who needs very, very little introduction, let me just give a bit, given the sweep of things that Ehud Barak has led and been involved with in Israel and its politics and its international relations over the years. He’s, of course, a Former Prime Minister, from 1999 to 2001, the Defense Minister 2007 to 13 under Olmert, and indeed Netanyahu, and has had vast knowledge and experience of Israel’s Defense, leadership, economy, technology, security and its international relations.
Had a career in the IDF, was the – at that point, the most dere – decorated Soldier in Israeli history, served as Chief of General Staff, before going into politics. And as – when leading his government, he was devoted to the peace process in 2000, it’s way back but worth remembering, ordered the withdrawal of the IDF from south Lebanon, ending those 18 years of Israel’s presence there, and then led many efforts to negotiate with the Palestinian authority at that point. This is – does feel like distant history, with Bill Clinton and his administration.
We’re very glad to have him here today and we’re going to plunge, Mr Barak, straight into these conversations about what is happening in Israel now. So, I wonder if you could take us, right at the start, into what the significance is of the protests now convulsing Israel.
Ehud Barak
It’s the, in a way, the most severe crisis that we had in the last 75 years, seven wars in 25 – there’s an infinite number of operations in between, mainly dealing with threats from the outside. Now, we’re facing the most severe crisis, real threats to our democracy, to our way of life, in a way to our security, because we are still living in a very tough neighbourhood, self-made by a government that was legally elected. No-one suspect there were fraud in the elections, so it’s a legal government which acts blatantly illegitimately in what it’s doing.
We have, basically, found ourselves suddenly in the last several months defending democracy, namely democracy found itself – has to protect itself against those who are using the very tools that democracy gives and the very freedoms that it bestow upon their citizen, in order to destroy it from within, and it’s a deliberate effort. We call it regime change from top down, and the regime change from top down, they’re trying to make Israel, basically, a dictatorship, or a non-democratic, kind of, entity, not in the – not the Russian version. It’s not Russia under Putin or Turkey under Erdoğan, but Poland under Kaczyński and Orbán under – Hungary under Orbán is exactly what they have in mind.
And we are not Polish, we are not Hungarian, we are not going to accept it. That doesn’t fit into our basic values and our collective psyche. So, it’s a clash, this top-down regime change, using the tools, the legal tools of democracy, facing a counter-revolution from bottom up. And we will win, I’m confident of it, because I know our people and we have even empirical evidence for this. Some 11 years ago, in – two ladies, scholars, Chenoweth and Stephan, published in Colombia research they made of hundreds of civil protests in the last – over 100 years, from 1900 to 2006, and they found a common denominator.
All these protests which succeeded, where they reach a level of 3.5 of the popul – percent of the population, which is – which ends up to be about 8% of the adult population, tenaciously and persistently keeping the protests, boycott, civil disobedience and so on, at the end the government either fall or capitulate. This exactly – we already crossed this number within less than three months, so we are heading in the right direction. The publication called “Why Civil Resistance Works,” and you can find it. So, basically, I’m confident that we’ll do it, and the clashes, it reached its climax…
Bronwen Maddox
The clashes…
Ehud Barak
…yesterday, in a way.
Bronwen Maddox
The clashes are extraordinary. We’ve had the main General Workers Union calling for a general strike this morning, flights from Tel Aviv have been suspended. The President, Isaac Herzog, as he has been for some weeks now, is calling for a pause to the reforms. The – Netanyahu has fired his Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, who criticised the reforms, and Netanyahu is supposed to be about to speak at some point today. So, an enormous sense of, as you’ve said, of unrest, which is not what the world is used to seeing from Israel. As you said, in terms of – it’s – these are internal points of conflict, not external. If you could, just take us into what the reforms mean. These are judicial reforms which people say undermine the independence of the Supreme Court.
Ehud Barak
I won’t even go into all this – his plan. It’s a well-planned legislative package, total some 12, or probably more, different laws, a lot of redundancy inside it. Each – two of them, if they are selected, probably, would be enough to push Israel out of the family of democratic nations. In fact, it’s not my definition. The Supreme Court Justice, a lady named, Esther Hayut, said a few weeks ago, “This is not a reform. This is an attempt to crash the independence of the Supreme Court and to push Israel out of the family of democratic nations.” So, I quote her, and the General Attorney, she is another lady named Miara, she said it just, “It’s illegal. What the government is doing is illegal.”
So, you cannot say illegal or unconstitutional in a place where there is no constitution. There is not even ex-judicial norm like, here in the UK, where the sanctity – it isn’t that. You know when Boris Johnson lied to the Parliament, his own party, no need for a Police investigation, for a court that takes his own party pushed him out. Yeah, I’m envy, Sunak here, he fired some Minister, but two governments ago he made his tax statement not properly, and here you don’t need anything. We don’t have anything like this.
Another Barak, Chief Justice Barak, not relative of mine, he once said that “The Israeli system is a hybrid of American President with no checks and balances, and the British system without the British tradition.” He didn’t add without the British character, which is more important in this case. And we are, kind of – take yourself 300 years ago and think about how those norms, extrajudicial norms, have been created. They’re created by real incidents where extra use of power faced the domains of illegitimacy. Many of you have read Max Weber on charisma and the building of institutions and, you know, even absolute monarch who reigns by gress – gates of heaven, there is limits to legitimacy. If his wife proposed to the public that if they don’t have bread they should eat brioche, it’s kind of French cake, it ended up with her beheaded. I don’t take the example directly, in our case, but there are certain similarities.
This government is acting in a blatantly illegitimate manner. In Israeli law there is equivalence, we call it a “black flag” waves over the activities of this government. And the example given from the military law, in the Israeli military law every Officer and Soldier, when he faces a blatantly illegitimate order, for example to shoot a 12-years-old girl who attacks an Israeli strong position with [inaudible – 13:51], and you got an order to shoot at her. You not have the right to refuse. You have obligation to refuse, and every Soldier, every young Officer learns it in officer school.
So, basically, it’s clear to us, we call it black flag, and the behaviour of this government is a black flag over it. What happened 24 hours ago, or 36 hours ago, was the following. The Minister of Defense, which in Israel, like here, and unlike America where it is, kind of – he’s not – the Chief of Staff is not even part of the chain of command, and the State – and the Defense Secretary is not part of the chain of the command. He’s not – just an advisor, but like here, the responsibility is on the government as a collective, and the Minister of Defense is directly in the chain of command over the Armed Forces, the intelligence, and everything else.
So, this Minister of Defense came to the Prime Minister and told him, “We have an immediate and apparent risk to the security of the nation, and I demand from you to gather the Cabinet,” which is the forum that has to take decisions. All along the 75 years, when a Minister of Defense – I was the longest serving Minister of Defense in Israel, except for Ben-Gurion, when you announce it 2 o’clock AM, in 3 o’clock AM the whole Cabinet is gathered, and here comes the Prime Minister and decide to refuse it or ignore it. So, that’s unheard of. It sounds to Israel, lunatic. Our collective psyche is extremely sensitive about Defence, security of the nation. You dare not to respond immediately on the spot to a call of the Minister of Defense? Unheard of.
But why he did? Because he knew if the Cabinet gather, the Cabinet had 16 Ministers you need, out of the 32 Ministers in the government. If the 16 Ministers will hear what the Head of the Intelligence and the Head of the Mossad, and Head of the Secret Service had to do about the situation around us with our external rivals, and about the implication of the tearing apart of the fabric of – action of the reservists in the – within the armed force, they will not vote for Netanyahu passing these laws in the Knesset.
So, in order to save his laws, for example, the law that – the first law is the law that has to castrate the independence of the Supreme Court. If you – if they will hear what happens and what are the consequences of the civil disobedience of Pilots, cyberwarriors, GHCQ people, SAS people and the like, they won’t vote for him. So, in order to save his vote, to push Israel toward the democracy, he’s ready to take his [inaudible – 17:02] lunatic, and people lost their trust in the judgment and the – the judgment…
Bronwen Maddox
So, this is – and so…
Ehud Barak
…of the Prime Minister. That’s a real crisis.
Bronwen Maddox
This is an extraordinary point we’re at, at the moment and I just want to pull out one thing that you’re saying, and I think you’re saying, that we’re at a point where senior people in the IDF are really going to be torn about whether or not to follow what the government…
Ehud Barak
Right.
Bronwen Maddox
…tells them to do…
Ehud Barak
Yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
…or whether, on principle, they should refuse. Is that…?
Ehud Barak
Right.
Bronwen Maddox
I just want to be absolutely clear that is what you’re saying.
Ehud Barak
I’ll make it – the – one of the most probable scenarios, we can add a true visibility period, of course, where it can develop in many directions, but one of the most probable ones…
Bronwen Maddox
We like scenarios at Chatham House, yeah.
Ehud Barak
…is a clear constitutional crash, without constitution, I mentioned. No second layers of the Parliament and no veto powers. The Parliament nothing, it’s all on the everyone, kind of, understanding. But a clear crisis, namely the government might pass today or tomorrow a government that, basically, kills the independence of the Supreme Court. Once you kill him, it’s a dictatorship because the legislative branch is already controlled by the executive branch, there is no law which is passed which doesn’t originate with the Knesset.
Bronwen Maddox
So, you need the Knesset to pass this law, yeah?
Ehud Barak
Yeah, and the Parliament, the Knesset, does not inspect or oversee the activities of the government. That…
Bronwen Maddox
Right, so it goes through the Knesset, in your scenario?
Ehud Barak
Yeah, it goes to the Knesset, they pass a law.
Bronwen Maddox
But then what happens?
Ehud Barak
Then immediately, it goes to the Supreme Court because people in NGOs and whatever, and civilians, will appeal to the Supreme Court to cancel those laws.
Bronwen Maddox
So, the laws which are undermining…
Ehud Barak
The laws which castrate the…
Bronwen Maddox
…the Supreme Court?
Ehud Barak
Exactly, Supreme Court. Supreme Court, the government thinks the Supreme Court will feel it improper to deal with laws that…
Bronwen Maddox
Of dealing with the Supreme Court.
Ehud Barak
…they are on the subject of, but I am confident that they will decide. They – first of all, they say, “You cannot” – the technical tool of this law is to change the structure of committee which nominate the Supreme Court Judges and the Chief. So, the Supreme Court will immediately issue an order, “You cannot gather this committee until we think of it and pass – do it and the verdict,” and the government might ignore it.
Bronwen Maddox
So, you have a clash, then…
Ehud Barak
Yeah, exactly, a clash.
Bronwen Maddox
…between the Supreme Court refusing…
Ehud Barak
Supreme Court order, “Don’t gather this committee,” and the government, “Gather the committee.”
Bronwen Maddox
Complete clash.
Ehud Barak
Yeah, yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
Alright.
Ehud Barak
And gather the committee and pass decisions about the new nominees.
Bronwen Maddox
So, we…
Ehud Barak
And the Supreme Court will not accept it, they will not accept. So, it means direct clash. Another version of clash could be that the Supreme Court order to dismantle certain new illegal settlement somewhere in the Judea and Samaria, and the new second Minister in Ministry of Defense named Smotrich belongs to this lunatic racists on the extreme right, messianic Mechinas, and they have a second Minister in the Ministry of Defense responsible civil activities, and he will order the Chief of Staff not to follow the order of the Supreme Court. It can happen next week.
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah, it can happen, and so…
Ehud Barak
Then…
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah.
Ehud Barak
…I know – I happen to know the leaders, we call them gatekeepers or defenders of our sovereignty, the Head of the Army, the Chief of Staff, the Head of the Secret Service, the Head of Mossad, and the Head of the Police. Stri…
Bronwen Maddox
And this is the point I’m asking about, what they…
Ehud Barak
Yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
…will do in response to…?
Ehud Barak
They are solid characters. Three of them for sure, and I hope also the Head of the police which is more – three of them – all of them, together with myself and Netanyahu and Bennett, all came from the same small unit, the – our equivalent of the SAS. In Israel, this equivalent of SAS or SEAL Team, sits in United States, is a very, kind of incubator for future leaders in all ways of life. So, it happens that both the Chief of Staff and the Head of the Mossad and the Head of the Secret Service, they are all veterans of the same unit, and we are – educated them.
I was Commander of unit – I was the Commander of Netanyahu, who was a young Soldier, later as a young Officer, quite good one, but it belong to the past, and I know how they operate. They are like – they operate every day, every year, so they have to develop this vicious cycle of a cruel, debriefing. They cannot afford – you fail at your King if you don’t take the right lesson, ready to admit all your mistakes. So, they are all very solid characters. Where they face these kind contradiction, they will follow the Supreme Court and not their superior. So, the crisis will be even more serious, because they might be fired by the government. If they fire the Minister of Defense, they can fire any one of them, but then there will come the appeal to the Supreme Court to announce these firings being illegal or blatantly illegitimate and so.
So, we are going into a clash, I have no doubt that we will be, because Netanyahu cannot control two aspect of the consequences. One, is the economy, everyone in the world warns him, our Central Bank Governor, the previous ones, leading Economists all around the world, and the markets respond. Already the shekel, which was for long time one of the strongest currencies on Earth, it decline, direct foreign investment stopped, money start to move out. It takes a little, kind of, lagging indicator because of KYC processes in the banks now outside Israel. So, basically, it’s – he cannot control it. He tried to call upon personal acquaintances, Larry Summers or Michael Bloomberg or – to convince them to support him, or at least to keep silent. It stimulated all of them to make their position clear against this regime change.
So, basically, that’s one arena he cannot control, and every citizen will feel it, so it might end up with a election disaster for him. The second one is the tearing apart of the fabric of operational forces. Here I have to explain something. In Israel, unlike standing, kind of, regular forces in other nations, three quarters – sometimes half, sometimes three quarters, of the fighters at the – in between major wars operations, which takes place every night, you’ll see sometimes on CNN on – or BBC, a glow of some flare on some R&D installation, also Damascus or some convoy go from Iran to Iraq, to Syria, to Lebanon, and on the Iraqi/Syrian border, some vehicle is hit and explodes because there were some weapons there or whatever.
All these operations, at the cockpit of the leading F-35 usually it’s a reservist volunteer. He’s a Fighter Pilot, we bury two thirds of our Fighter Pilot force, and the leading element of them, because the young Pilots are in the rear members of the group, the leader is usually reservist. So, basically, these guys, they said clearly, “We have a contract with a democratic, Jewish drowning State of Israel,” which means that we are ready to risk our lives, and we risked them once and again. And we buried some of our best friends and comrades at the service of a government that, in many cases, we did not agree with any of its policies, because it’s a democratically elected government.
We are – we do not have any conduct with a dictator, even in – it’s only 80% dictatorship or 20%, we don’t have and cannot have, any conduct with a dictator, so we are not going to volunteer,” and it’s said by the cutting-edge Fighter Pilots, by the equivalent of the SAS, by the cyber warriors, which are extremely important in our reality at the…
Bronwen Maddox
I’ve gathered, and…
Ehud Barak
Yeah, and that’s the situation. So, basically, there is no way to stop them and no way to coerce them, and he cannot control them. They are all against him.
Bronwen Maddox
So, we can dig into these points more, but you’ve described the economy, the, you know, the military unrest, all of this. I wanted – there’s stacks of questions coming in and I know there are going to be others.
Ehud Barak
But the one – just one we have that makes the picture clear…
Bronwen Maddox
Go on, quickly, and then I have to ask you two other things.
Ehud Barak
No, no, only one. People ask, “What will happen if there is a war next week?” And very…
Bronwen Maddox
War.
Ehud Barak
If there is – war came, a full clash with Hezbollah, or a full clash with Hamas and then – and many, kind of, eruption of violence in the mixed cities in Israel, like Haifa, Jaffa, whatever, a major operation, all these Pilots will serve, they will come. You won’t have to call them. They will appear at the gates of the squadrons, at the air-conditioned rooms of the cyber warriors or whatever, they will all be there.
But in between, when there is not a real war, they become more and more clear that probably it won’t enough to stop this legislation. We now demand that they will cancel everything that was passed in second – at the first reading, in the last month, and to put an end to it, to make sure that we secure the independence of the Supreme Court and the judicial system.
Bronwen Maddox
So, I mean, that’s very powerful. In a way it’s speculation about what people in military positions will do, and we’ll come onto some of that. I want to ask you two things before we go to questions. One is about relations with the Palestinians, albeit I can’t think of a – almost a worse time, and the other one is about Iran. Let’s start with the Palestinians. Should we just admit the two-state solution is gone?
Ehud Barak
No, we just have to separate this discussion from the present crisis, because, you know, the three big elephants in the room on the Israeli arena, one is the Palestinian issue, are we heading toward a one-state or two-state? It’s a whole difference. Second one is the relationship of the state and the synagogue, which has to be clarified and discussed, and the third one is the gaps in society and gaps in equalities, in opportunities and in results. These are the main elephants in the room, but we cannot deal with them now.
Bronwen Maddox
Can we concentrate on number one…
Ehud Barak
Yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
…the Palestinians?
Ehud Barak
Yeah, yeah, okay.
Bronwen Maddox
Leave the other…
Ehud Barak
Yeah, yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
…the other two, which are not…
Ehud Barak
There is no – not discussed, they were just mentioned, that we have to leave all these elephants, because the urgent issue is whether we will be a democracy or a dictatorship. If we are a dictatorship, even a quality dictatorship, we don’t have we. The free people of Israel, the Liberal Democrats of Israel, we cannot influence reality if there is a dictatorship led by a equivalent of Israeli Orbán or Kaczyński. There is no sense in raising these issues, Palestinians. It will never be discussed.
These guys, the lunatics, the Mechinas that I mentioned, they have in mind turning the conflict with the Palestinians, which is about territory and politics, into a real – they are happily doing it, for some reason that I cannot understand, to see a major religious war between Israel and Islam. And they are ready to destroy everything over there on the Temple Mount, you know, establish, kind of, all their traditions, their biblical tradition of slaughtering the – kind of, a goat, some sheep, for a sacrifice. So, we are very committed to our tradition, I think that we have great tradition.
Bronwen Maddox
So, what you’re saying is there’s no point – you can’t – it’s not even possible to discuss?
Ehud Barak
No, no, it’s not relevant now, it’s not relevant. The only thing that will dec – define whether we can deal with the Palestinian problem, we can – whether we can deal with relationship between religion and state, is only to win, first of all, democracy. If it’s – you know, a dictatorship is not being removed by election.
Bronwen Maddox
So, what would you say to the Palestinians now, because it’s not rele – it might be relevant to them?
Ehud Barak
I would tell them, “Be patient.” You know, people are strong…
Bronwen Maddox
They have long traditions.
Ehud Barak
…strong anxiety that probably now the Palestinian, the Hamas, the Hezbollah, the Iranians, they will use the opportunity to attack Israel. I don’t buy it. Probably someone will try to have a – probably some provocateur on Islamic jihad or something, other organisation will try to provoke a major clash, but Iranians, Hezbollah, they fully know that if they try to attack Israel, challenge Israel, the whole dissonance will stop on the moment, and they will feel the strength of Israel. They don’t have – they don’t wish to try.
Bronwen Maddox
I can understand why you’re saying what you’re saying. This is so consuming, what is happening to Israel democracy, that everyone else must wait…
Ehud Barak
Yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
…to see what happens, because – but for the Palestinians, that is not going to be much of an answer at all. Wait and see if Israel turns into the autocracy you’re describing…
Ehud Barak
Well, they are – for sure…
Bronwen Maddox
…or whether it stays as a democracy…
Ehud Barak
Look, that Palestinian…
Bronwen Maddox
…in which negotiations have got absolutely [devastating – 31:42].
Ehud Barak
…the Palestinians are not monolithic, and we are not monolithic.
Bronwen Maddox
Understood, understood.
Ehud Barak
You have the Palestinian authority with the old, kind of, likely fading out Abu Mazen, but, basically, a good person with many mistakes, and Hamas on the other side, totally different entity, and we have in Israel the same. The lunatic guys on one end, and the main body of liberal Israelis on the other. But I am – I do not belong to those who think that the time of two-state is over. It’s true it might take time, but I said when I led the country to Camp David, Israel, Palestinians and Clinton, I said at the end of it – and we failed to achieve a breakthrough at the time, I said, “It might take five, 15,” it’s already 20, “or 50 years, but when the time comes to make an agreement, you will need magnifying glass to see the difference between what was already on the table at Camp David and what will be decided. Because nothing will change, basically, except the size of the graveyard, and it will grow on the Palestinian side much faster than on our side.”
So – but it – when the time will come, and it might take time, because it needs leadership on both sides and the rightness of both political bodies or electorates, but when it’s – it comes, few years after a remit will be achieved, and I have no doubt that it could be achieved, and until the strategy, first of all, for Israel is – but for the Palestinians as well. Once an agreement is achieved, people within few years will start to ask why the hell it took so long and why the hell we had to bury so many people on both sides in – to achieve this only possible agreement.
I don’t believe that it’s eternal. We have seen Ireland, we have seen the Balkans, it – communities can bleed into each other hand for generations, but at certain point, I hope sooner than – better soon than later, a point will be reached where both sides will be ready to remain. For the Israeli side, it’s a clear logic behind it. If there’s only one entity – there are now – between the Mediterranean and River Jordan there are some 14 or 15 million people, about half and half Jews and Arabs. So, if there is only one political entity named Israel, reigning over this whole geographical unit, it will become inevitably, and that’s the key word, inevitably, either non-Jewish or non-democratic. You know, if this block of millions of Palestinians can vote, and this will be the only debate, one person, one vote, if they can vote it is a binational state overnight and within short time, it’s binational with Muslim majority. If they cannot vote – I don’t want to quote the name of a event I see on the world map on the – of the neighbouring continent for this case, but for sure, it’s not democracy.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, I can tell you’re…
Ehud Barak
So, we have no way but to reach, otherwise it’s the end of the Zionist dream, and I don’t want to participate. I’m a little bit old, but that even my grandchildren will participate in allowing us to go there.
Bronwen Maddox
So, much of the world would love to hear – to believe in what you’ve just said, that there is still a chance…
Ehud Barak
So – but that’s still the…
Bronwen Maddox
…but what is so – but belief is not the same thing as progress. And what people might say is, “Look, even before we got to this latest Israeli Government, the fact is the settlements have move forward and forward, and that is because there is enough of a constituency within Israel for that to happen that the settlements have moved forward…
Ehud Barak
For what…
Bronwen Maddox
…and there has…
Ehud Barak
…for…
Bronwen Maddox
…for there be – to be…”
Ehud Barak
…is it the bad things or the good things?
Bronwen Maddox
For the bad things, for the settlements to move forward onto Palestinian land and for there to be no deal. So, in all these years, even before we get to the drama of this Netanyahu government, there has been no progress, so why from no progress do you manage to extract some hope?
Ehud Barak
You know, I – we need another hour or three to discuss the history event and let’s say…
Bronwen Maddox
But let me just say…
Ehud Barak
…we have partners which are short of ideal. I used to say Middle East is a tough neighbourhood, nothing to compare to the Midwest, or to Western Europe. It’s a different – we’re in a different neighbourhood. I tried, personally, to do it with Arafat. We need at least half an hour to discuss why it failed, but in a short, kind of, stenographic manner, we tried our best. Unlike the Albanic legend myself and Clinton never told Arafat, “Take it or leave it,” never tried to dictate to him. We put a far-reaching proposal on the table, which covered, metaphorically, 90+% of whatever he can dream of, and told him – I told him, in front of Clinton, “You can have reservation from any paragraph, or from all paragraph, put them on the paper. The only thing we want from you is to accept it as a basis for negotiations.” He rejected it and deliberately turned to terror.
Bronwen Maddox
Arafat is not here to…
Ehud Barak
Yeah, yeah.
Bronwen Maddox
…argue his side of that.
Ehud Barak
No, but Clinton…
Bronwen Maddox
Nor can we survey all that. I also feel like…
Ehud Barak
…would say…
Bronwen Maddox
…I lived through it, but I want to ask…
Ehud Barak
It’s happened that Clinton is still alive, to be fair.
Bronwen Maddox
Clinton is, thank you. I will take that as a tip to Chatham House. We’ll see what we can do on that. Let me just ask you one – there’s going to be a lot of questions and they’re streaming in here, but let me just ask you briefly, do you think – yes, these are – I’ll turn it round if you want. But actually, I’m not – I withdraw that. Do you think that this Netanyahu government is more likely to have a conflict with Iran because of this turmoil in Israel?
Ehud Barak
That’s the six hours, Iran. Look, Iran is, to the best of my judgment, not just guessing but some knowledge, Iran is de facto nuclear threshold state. The Iranians doesn’t have any interest to admit it, because it just will intensify the sanction. The Americans do not have any motivation to admit it, because it will raise the question, “What are you doing about it? Why didn’t you do it beforehand?” So, no-one admits, but nowadays, to the best of my judgment, only the Iranians will decide when to turn into a young member of the club of nuclear nations.
It might take them another year or two to learn how to deal with the metal uranium-235, and probably really about the same time to develop a warhead for a ballistic missile which cannot go wider than 24 inches in diameter or something like this. But whoever – which I’m interested in physics, so I’m reading publications, the physics, through the nuclear physics – the Iranians are highly advanced. It’s not Somaliland and not the Balkans, it’s a advanced scientific power.
No amount of Scientists that will disappear for this or that reason will stop them from reaching it. It’s neither – the great – grand negligence of both Netanyahu and Orbán, and Trump, Netanyahu with Trump in 2018, was that – Netanyahu convinced Trump to go out of the JCPOA, the agreement, where the rest of them remained there. And it legitimised the Iranian move toward a nuclear threshold status. They never thought that they have to prepare Plan B. What happens if the Iranians, against your wishes, dreams or whatever, fantasies, they will try to close the gap? This Plan B had never been prepared and it cannot be prepared overnight, and probably it’s impossible.
So, neither – to the best of my judgment, neither Israel nor Iran, nor America has now a surgical operational plan, kinetic one, that can delay the Iranians by two or three years in their nuclear effort. So, that doesn’t mean that attack cannot happen. Attack can be made for domestic politics reason, for need to prove to the world that we didn’t sit idle when they turn nuclear, for whatever reason. But here I have a small warning, Israeli Air Force, if he got an order to attack certain installation in Iran, they will do it, they will execute it, but that doesn’t mean that it’s relevant for the advance of Irani - Iran toward a nuclear weapon.
Because take, for example – assume that we attack the nuclear reactor in Arak, heavy-water nuclear in a city called Arak in Iran. It might appear to be a great continuation of Israeli doctrine, the Begin doctrine. Begin destroyed the reactor in Baghdad, Olmert destroyed, I was his Minister of Defense, the reactor in Syria, and now Bibi destroys the reactor in Iran. But this reactor has nothing to do with the nuclear military plan. The reactor belongs to a trajectory in producing nuclear weapons, it’s called the plutonium trajectory, namely you have a heavy-water nuclear reactor, you take the used fuel rods and scrap from them the plutonium some chemical processes.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, so plutonium route, yeah.
Ehud Barak
Yeah. They – the Iranians are working for 20 years now on the different idea, using centrifuges to…
Bronwen Maddox
The enriched uranium route, yeah.
Ehud Barak
…distillate enriched uranium-235. So, they are there. The point is, that if we attack an installation that belongs to the Iranian nuclear industry, it might legitimate acceleration of their move, because what they will say will be the following, “You American, you unleashed your nuclear dog, namely Israel, they never signed the NPT, and you – and they attack our peaceful,” they call it peaceful, “nuclear plan, so we have no choice but to turn nuclear.”
Bronwen Maddox
Right, so…
Ehud Barak
So, you have to think everything in advance and solely before you take action, even on these sensitive issues.
Bronwen Maddox
Right, thank you, and thank you Asaf Mar-or and Laura O’Callaghan for asking. Essentially, that question.
Ehud Barak
Asaf Mor, sounds Israeli.
Bronwen Maddox
Yes, I believe is Israeli, many Israeli questions here. Right, if we can have the lights up, and let’s – okay, here in the front, I think you were first, and I’m going to come over here.
Samuel Youssef
[Pause] Mr Barak, you were born in Palestine in 1942, and almost 81 years and a couple of months.
Ehud Barak
Oh, Your Majesty.
Bronwen Maddox
Well, His Majesty’s subject. Yes, would you like to say who you are, please?
Samuel Youssef
Oh, I’m Samuel Youssef, member of Chatham House. Now, the question I want to ask you is, you were born Palestinian, and your country now is in – almost in turmoil, no thanks to Netanyahu, as you put it yourself. Your country at the moment is semi-democratic and probably sliding into autocracy. How will you have, if it slides into autocracy, eternal peace with the Palestinians with a Netanyahu Prime Minister?
Ehud Barak
I think that I already answered it. I say the following. We are fighting for a democratic Israel, and this is the most urgent. It’s probably not the most important in the eyes of the world, but it’s the most urgent struggle, because if we cannot win this and make sure that Israel is a 100% democracy, we cannot even discuss the issue of the Palestinians and any other elephant in the room. So, we need now the Palestinians to be patient. They’re not short of mis – of making mistakes. The – even Abu Mazen, which is basically a good intentions leader, made more than once major mistakes, and not to mention the Hamas, who are absolute murders, and we cannot have anything to do with them.
So, we have first of all to make sure that Israel is a stable democracy. You cannot operate in dictatorship against the will of the ruler. You can act in democracy to change a government by election and choose a government which will have enough self-confidence, and hopefully, meet self-confident Palestinian leadership, who will be ready together to strike a certain deal breakthrough, which will make justice for both and protect the interest of both.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, thank you. Over here on the aisle, yeah and then, I’m coming over here. Right, yeah.
Hannah Weisfeld
My name’s Hannah Weisfeld and I’m the CEO of an organisation called Yachad, which works within the British Jewish community to build support for a resolution to the Israel/Palestine conflict. I wanted to ask you about Smotrich, because…
Ehud Barak
About?
Hannah Weisfeld
Smotrich, and in particular, something which has gone under the radar, because all the focus has been on the judicial overhaul. And I take your point about the urgency of that, but what’s happened in the last month is that the Prime Minister has transferred to Smotrich a significant amount of power in relation to the IDF. So, what used to be a military occupation, and you could call it a military occupation because the military was in charge of governing the occupied territories, that power is now in the hands of Smotrich, who is a civilian Minister.
And so, even if the judicial overhaul is halted this afternoon, which it might be, it’s almost impossible to say that Israel is a democracy, because Smotrich is now governing as a civilian over millions of Palestinians who don’t have their basic rights. And so, we could argue, and it’s a difficult argument to make, but you can argue that when it’s a military occupation, it’s temporary, but once it’s a civilian rule over millions of Palestinians, it’s becoming increasingly hard to make the case that even without judicial overhaul, there is any, kind of, democracy left.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you, interesting point.
Ehud Barak
So, it seems to me that we share somewhat similar judgment about Smotrich, the most I can tell. I don’t like the idea, but he was elected by voters in Israel, and we respect results of the vote, and I think that Netanyahu made a major mistake. He now start to pay for it by giving him all these authorities. But in order to establish this unholy alliance that he created three months ago, which, basically, I didn’t mention it, but the idea, the practical idea of this unholy alliance is to save Netanyahu from a court case, criminal court case of bribery, breach of trust and so forth, that he is personally the defender. And to save another Mis – Minister who was convicted twice for money laundering and bribery, whatever, to bring him to the same ministry where he made his previous crimes, for which he was convicted. So, it’s quite bizarre, and in order to be able to have a majority, they need majority in the Knesset, they mobilised Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, the lunatics. And as a result, it’s a unholy alliance and we are fighting against it.
But I see the risk, but the risk is not from the nomination of Smotrich, it’s only part of it. The very coercion of our – the independence of our Supreme Court will make Israeli officials, including Bibi himself, but probably myself, Officers, whoever, exposed to being brought to The Hague. Because the only element which protected Israelis from being brought to The Hague in the last 50 years, after we took over the Judea and Samaria, which is the area at the West Bank where the Palestinian – majority of Palestinians are living, is the fact that the International Criminal Court in The Hague doesn’t convict, doesn’t deal with cases where the country under consideration has an independent court who makes people accountable for any violation of the law vis à vis those people who doesn’t have voting, the Palestinians – voting right, the Palestinians in our case, and they’re ready to deal with them.
So, somehow, the perception of the Israeli Supreme Court as a independent, strong body with a judgment that fits into the norms of the international community, that’s what protected all of us. Me and my wife, we moved in many places where there was already a risk that someone will come with some arrest order for me, not for her. The Supreme Court is what protects us, much more than Smotrich, and I agree that Israel would be a better place to live in and to show to the world if Smotrich would not have been a Minister.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, we have lots and lots of hands up. Let me take two. Here in the front, and then right over there in the front, and then I’ll try and pick up some more.
Harun
Hi, my name is Harun, I’m just – I’m a member here. My question is regarding the Palestinian/Israeli conflict. You mentioned that the only message to give to the Palestinians is “Be patient,” but I think many decades have gone by of – and you can see the – where the more people have been killed and injured, and the Israeli expansion of settlements that continues to increase. And just last week, when the Finance Minister said that there’s nothing as Palestinian or Palestinian people, or nation. So, how sincere Israeli – despite all the agreements that have been taking place, how sincere is Israel in really wanting to find peace, despite all these things – statements and things continuing from Israeli side, as well? I know you will say Palestinians have that issue, but there is a reaction to things as well. We cannot ignore that.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you, and I’m going to take that one on its own, because I do feel that word ‘patience’ that you used is just hanging over this conversation, right.
Ehud Barak
Look, I think that I try to state it clearly. We are now in a fight for the very nature of Israel, for the soul of our sovereign minds of our own citizens, to convince them to reject this government which is legal – is a legal government, but due to its illegitimate actions to find a way, first of all, to block it, and then to cause it to change direction. So, I’m confident that will work, but you can easily have here Smotrich, or someone else, to tell you the opposite, that it won’t work, that it just, kind of – it’s not civil obedien – civil disobedience, it’s a rebellion against a legal government, and so on.
So, basically, I try to explain to you that I cannot really defend the positions of Smotrich. I think very differently from him, but I cannot deny the fact that when we are talking, he is a Minister with certain authorities, even within the Ministry of Defense. So, he is not a good representative in Israel, to the best of my judgment, but there is still freedom of speech in Israel so Ministers can talk out their mind. It’s not the formal position of the State of Israel. The State of Israel, kind of, recognise the Palestinian rights to have their own state.
Netanyahu was the one who, after his first meeting with Arafat said that he “found a friend.” Rabin couldn’t find a friend in him, I couldn’t find a friend a lot of times. I never called him a friend, but Netanyahu thought that he found a friend and Israel was negotiating with the Palestinians – with the Palestinian authority, and things have changed. I cannot tell you that even if there is a full democracy, we have a full triumph in this conflict, and next month, or next year, we have a breakthrough with the Palestinians.
There – it’s a complicated conflict, like Jammu and Kashmir, or other – there are very few places, or some of the conflicts in the Balkans or other places, I don’t know, probably North, however – North and – it’s complicated. Might take time, but I am confident that - they are human beings, we know the Palestinians, a millimetre underneath the surface, they are exactly similar to us. Their leadership made mistakes, I cannot say that our leadership never made any mistake, but it takes time. It needs patience, and need the norms of keeping, to the extent we can, securing the – our security and the life of Israelis, and make sure that their life are honestly respected and their rights as a human being, their – even under our control they’re a human being, they have their needs and so on, should be treated fairly to the extent possible. And it’s not easy, but that’s my belief, and all the big camp in Israel that thinks the same like me really believes in it.
Bronwen Maddox
Hmmm, loads of hands up. Going to this gentleman here, here in the shirt and then, I’m going to come to the two women at the back.
Ehud Barak
How could you choose whom to – I see so many of them.
Bronwen Maddox
There are so many of them. It partly goes on who put their hand up first.
Sean Curtin
Sean Curtin, member of Chatham House. Prime Minister Barak, you have brilliantly outlined the problems, the threats to democracy that Israel faces, and the dangers of Netanyahu and changing the law so he can get off. But these were the very issues that were put before the Israeli electorate before the last election, which, much to my despair, Netanyahu won. So, my question to you is, if this current chaos at the moment, and the tensions, the severe tensions in Israel, leads to another election, what happens if Netanyahu wins again?
Bronwen Maddox
Great, thank you.
Sean Curtin
Or why are you so confident that he would win again? Thank you.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, thank you, and here, in the blue shirt.
Audience member
Thank you. So, first of all, I total…
Bronwen Maddox
Can we have your name, please, first of all?
Islam
Yeah, Islam, member of Chatham House. So, first of all, I totally agree with you that, in fact, like, you need to suppress the two elephant of – in the rooms for the sake of the third, and focus on Israel’s democracy, because honestly, I believe, and many people believe, that Israeli democracy has been a major source of its legitimacy as a occupation power in the Middle East. It’s helped sell the Israeli project to the West and to the international community, that we are the democratic beacon in the Middle East, and this is why we can be occupational and colonial. So, I think that the fight for democracy in Israel is a colonial…
Bronwen Maddox
Excuse me, can you ask a question, please?
Audience member
Yeah, is a colonial practice in the first place, so how do you think of that can be resisted if Netanyahu manage to turn it into a Middle Eastern class of dictatorship? That’s first, and second thing, what do you think of…?
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah, sorry, there’s just one question.
Audience member
Is – okay, thank you.
Bronwen Maddox
Okay, but thank you for the question.
Ehud Barak
If you make three of them, I might forget the first one, I’m sorry.
Bronwen Maddox
Will Netanyahu win again, and then this one.
Ehud Barak
I will answer you. I hope that Netanyahu will not turn Israel into dictatorship and it will make your – the answer of your question not needed, in a way. I think that we will succeed in keeping Israel as democracy and we can block his attempt. He might take the lesson or might be deposed. I will not be sorry if he’s removed out of power, and it might be the result of this, and he might stay, as well, but very limited. With the independent Supreme Court, he won’t be able to fulfil all the wishes of Smotrich and the like.
About your question. First of all, Netanyahu deliberately hid his intentions during the election campaign. He didn’t talk about those regime, kind of, change. He made sure that all along the election campaign he will never be seen on the same frame to be taking a picture with Ben-Gvir, which is the other – the partner of Smotrich in the same lunatic party. So, they – he hid it. He promised the Israeli four priorities during the election and even immediately after the election. He talked about Iran, he talked about peace with Saudi Arabia, he talked about a shortage of housing and cost of living, and suddenly after two weeks, he forget all of this.
And as Tom Friedman put it in one of his New York Times article, he said, “Bibi, you told us in perfect English that it’s just slight modification in the judicial system. To make it more congruent with the North American way, namely Politician will nominate the Chief Justices, like in the United States, and there will be an overrule clause in the law that enables the Parliament to overrule the decisions of the Supreme Court, like in Canada.” So, he added, Tom Friedman, I quote him, “So, why the hell you brought the whole country to the verge of the abyss, and the economy and the – and you see your fighting forces tear apart in front of your eyes? And what’s this urgency? What’s the case, what the hell, Bibi? If it was just minor modification, delay it by two years, make the country stronger. When the time comes, make a wide consensus about the needed reform.”
And he insinuated what it’s really there, it’s about saving Netanyahu from the court. 97% of criminal court in Israel ended with guilty verdict. He had three of them, so the chance of end non-guilty is very, kind of, far-fetched. And he might ask for an appeal, but appeal will have something that I don’t know how to translate in English, that you –certain – if you take bribe and you’re a Minister, you’re shamed for the rest of the life. You carry some, kind of, sign on your head that you’re not fit into any public service. That’s something that he cannot afford having, because the winner write history, so one – someone else, even they could write the history, first thing will be to unravel what really happened during this period, and he doesn’t.
So, basically he never made it clear and it’s about saving himself and saving the other partner, the convicted criminal, to make him back Minister of Interior or Minister of Health, or whatever.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you. I just want to squeeze in two more questions.
Ehud Barak
So that he will not be…
Bronwen Maddox
There’s a lot of…
Ehud Barak
…elected again, so…
Bronwen Maddox
Was the thrust of it, and right at the back, and I’m sorry, these are the last two we’re going to be able to take in, those two.
Ehud Barak
Only one lady, the ladies there are.
Bronwen Maddox
There are two ladies there, and we’re finally go to get their questions.
Constanze Stelzenmüller
Constanze Stelzenmüller, Brookings. Mr Barak, I feel for you. This must be a very, very painful situation, and we’ve – of course, the future of Israel is a – frankly, a concern for all of us in Europe. But I was wondering whether I could invite you to reflect on the responsibility of Israeli democrats, and perhaps your own responsibility, as a leading Politician in Israel, on bringing the situation to where it is now. What mistakes did you make? Thank you.
Bronwen Maddox
Thank you, and in front of you.
Kira Lewis
Thank you. Kira at BICOM. I just wanted to reflect on some generational divides, really, because for young people, sort of like, myself, born during your premiership as Prime Minister and afterwards, we’ve got young Israelis who are more right-wing than ever before, and young Palestinians who are more oppositional to Israel than ever before. So, how do you build even the concept of a peace process where younger generations now coming into voting age don’t even know or understand, or want, the concept of a peace process, let alone a two-state solution that we’re aiming for? So, how do you bridge those generational divides when a peace process hasn’t existed in our lifetimes, at all, really?
Bronwen Maddox
Two great questions, thank you.
Ehud Barak
To the first one, I see my major mistakes that I failed to stick to power for enough time to change reality more effectively. And when I look into this, I came from a long – I found my formative years and most of my adult life in uniform, but not in a normal army, in Special Forces. That’s a place where you can expect everyone to be on the same target, no politics, and unity of purpose, and somehow, you take it with you, something that’s taken for granted, that of course, every Minister who swore allegiance for the law and for the independence – declaration of independence or whatever, the values of Israel is really there.
And I was too focused on action, I didn’t pay enough time and energy to fact that all human beings, and many people, especially men, are, basically, frozen teenagers. Somewhere between the age of eight or 11, they are frozen. They grew, they grow, they got the experience and the, kind of, gravitas, but they remained the same. And you need to treat them this way, and it’s not easy, and it – I’m not good in it, I noticed. So, that’s my major mistake of – but I cannot add more than it. It’s – and I don’t feel painful now. I feel elated by the opportunity.
I be – we were beginning to see in Israel something unexpected, and I was optimistic on a time, I could not see this. You know, I was called more than once to organise all this disobedience, to make a headquarter, to make a three-dimension matrix organisation with a regional and task and groups and so on, and to act more effectively. I said, “No, no, just – it’s a chaotic process when it comes from bottom up. Don’t try to dictate anything. Let’s bring a – create a big tent, when someone who have a million, ten people or 10,000 people, they are all equal in the brainstorming.” Everyone follow only what they want, but they see the creativity of Israelis. I would never think of some of the ideas that they created. We took over the flag once. Again, it was the – at the hands of the extreme ultra-national and so on.
So, it’s an elating situation. The dormant State of Israel woke up, and that answer also your question, because some 20 years under Likud governments, the – even the teaching of civil society in the schools, when I was young everyone had to study how a democracy operate, it’s over. It became more, kind of, pushed to the side, and people, young people do not know, and here now we see the formative moments in the life of youngsters in effect. Yesterday night at 4 o’clock in the morning, closing the main, kind – north to south road in Israel, there were many youngsters. I would never think of see them there. They came up, they were inspired, and it’s really inspiring a movement and I’m very happy that we are going through it. And no violence until now, that shouldn’t happen, probably, until…
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah, okay. On that note we’re going to have to stop. It wasn’t exactly an answer to your question about the gap on the peace process, but what we’ve had in…
Ehud Barak
I say it…
Bronwen Maddox
…but we’ve – yeah.
Ehud Barak
…I say it – answer it again. I have a lesson – I answer the second one by the first request. We are – where are they? The moment a liberal government will take over the public, it won’t be easy, we have a mid-term in the municipal election and then general election, I believe that these events will leave a major imprint on the capacity of Netanyahu and the likes of those lunatics to – okay, the lunatic guys, no-one remembers that they are the successors of Rabbi Kahane, another Mechina, that when he was going to the podium in the Knesset, Shamir, the right-wing, ultimate right-wing, used to leave the hall. He didn’t want to see him, and now he’s a successor after 20 years.
And a new generation comes, they never heard the name Kahane, they never heard about the massacre that Goldstein made in the Patriarchs Cave of Islamist prayers, and they never heard of it. So, there comes young people and they say, “We will take – just give us the baton and we will lead the country,” and some people believe it. And – so, they have a lot of support and they will move them. I believe that we have an opportunity to have a better government that will be then free to think among – first of all, shaping our system and taking into account the other elephants in the room, including…
Bronwen Maddox
Lots of elephants…
Ehud Barak
…the Palestinian elephant.
Bronwen Maddox
…are still there. Mr Barak, we’re going to have to stop there. I would say, fascinating conversation in which this question of Israel’s democracy has pushed to the sides, as you’ve been describing, all the other things that we might talk about, particularly the Palestinians and Iran. And your invocation that people must wait and be patient, I think is not going to sit well with lots of people, apart from the fact that, as you’ve described, as we can see on the television, this is absolutely consuming Israel at the moment.
Ehud Barak
Well…
Bronwen Maddox
But we’re going to have to stop, we are really sadly…
Ehud Barak
It needs…
Bronwen Maddox
No, no. There are lots and lots…
Ehud Barak
What…
Bronwen Maddox
…of elephants in the room around here.
Ehud Barak
…do we do?
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah, we have stop.
Ehud Barak
What would we talk to in bookings of Chatham if we would solve all the problems?
Bronwen Maddox
Yeah.
Ehud Barak
That is not…
Bronwen Maddox
No, we would not want to be out of business in Chatham House. Terrific questions online as well. Dina Mufti, Sambhav Gupta, Austin Short, Hanif Adessi, thank you. I think we’d answered your questions or covered that ground, and I couldn’t get them in, but thank you for asking them. Everyone here, thank you for coming. Please join me in thanking Mr Barak.
Ehud Barak
Hmmm.
