Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Chatham House. I’m delighted to have a good audience here in the room, and I know we have several 100 members online, joining us that way as well. So, it’s just fantastic to be able to have that combined capacity nowadays that we have to reach out to people beyond this room, as well as for those of you who’ve taken the trouble to come in and join us here today; thank you to all of you.
I’m Robin Niblett, the Director of Chatham House. I think I know most of you here, don’t need to introduce myself too much anymore. It’s really my very great pleasure to welcome back, in a way, to Chatham House Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. I say, “Back,” because you did an online event with us in 2020, September 2020, just a month after the rigged elections held in Belarus, and we’re really thrilled to be able to have you with us today in-person, Sviatlana. Thank you for coming to join us, I know it’s a very busy time at the moment.
Now, I’m welcoming you also on behalf of my colleagues here at Chatham House, led by James Nixey, but also by Ryhor Astapenia, who is not here, but runs the Belarus Forum at Chatham House, but is outside the country currently. And, Katia Glod, great to have you back with us as well. Katia was a Robert Bosch Fellow at Chatham House, and we think, about ten years ago; is now a non-resident Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis at CEPA. She’s been an OSCE Election Observer, she’s worked for the European Endowment for Democracy in Minsk, and is also a Belarusian, so we thought it’d be great to be able to get some extra angles from Katia here, after we’ve heard from Sviatlana.
I don’t really need to introduce Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya much, I don’t think, to people here. You’ve made a – such an impression, I think, internationally, since you stepped in to run for the Presidency of Belarus back in 2020, stepped in after your husband, Sergei, was arrested in May, at the end of May. Elections were held in early August, and then you had to flee the country not long after, after the heavy political repression, and were pushed, in essence, into exile, as far as I can see, from which you have continued your leadership of the Belarusian democratic movement, and really that – keeping up that energy, that power for change in Belarus, which is receiving huge support around the world, but in particular in Europe and the United States. And part of what we want to discuss today: how can we keep that movement going and how can others be supportive for positive change?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has been the winner of the Sakharov Prize. I attended a lunch hosted in her honour at the Munich Security Conference, where she was presented as the winner of the Charlemagne Prize as well, this year, and I think this is a sign, if I may say so, of the great support for positive change that people see in you and want to be able to realise, if we can, through you going forward.
So, I’m going to offer the opportunity for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya to say a couple of words to kick us off. Just to remind everyone here, this meeting is on the record, perhaps obviously, but not always the case when you’re visiting Chatham House. We will then take questions. For those of you joining us online, please go to the Q&A function, do not use chat, do not use raise hand, and they won’t work, but please ask – put your questions, whenever you want, into the Q&A, and I’ll get as many as I can.
For those of you here in the room, when we come to Q&A, please just raise your hands and a microphone will come to you, you do not need to stand up, we will take your questions that way. So, with that introduction, Sviatlana, let me hear a couple of comments from you, please. Welcome to Chatham House [applause].
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Good afternoon to everyone. I’m really grateful for inviting me to speak here today, and also a big thanks for the important work that the Chatham House Belarus and its leader, Ryhor Astapenia, have done to monitor the situation in my country. Please accept the words of the presentationary work. You bring facts to the table and help to dispel the myths and misinformation.
So, difference of Belarus. Yesterday evening I met the cast of the Belarusian Free Theatre and several Ukrainian artists when they were rehearsing a play by a Belarusian author, Alhierd Baharevich, in the Barbican Conservatory. It was wonderful to hear that Belarusians and Ukrainians each speaking their own language and perfectly understand each other. Some of the cast members have already lost their loved ones in the ongoing war. A lot of their relatives had to flee, and of course none of them will never forget February 24, because on February 24, exactly two years – two weeks ago, my country and the whole world entered a new reality. Russia started an invasion of Ukraine using Belarus as a launching pad.
In this new reality, a maternity hospital in Zhytomyr was bombed by planes based in Belarus. Our country is de facto under military occupation. The regime is selling Belarusian sovereignty at this very moment. This new reality transformed our struggle from the fight for democracy to the fight for Belarusian sovereignty. And on February 26th, despite of 18 months of devastating repressions, tens of thousands took to the streets to protest the war, and we know that more than 800 people were detained, but this was the largest protest since 2020, and now almost every day something is happening in Belarus, small rallies, acts of sabotage.
On February 27th, cyber partisans blocked Russian transports by hiking – hacking railway systems. Yesterday, several activists were accused of destroying Russian military equipment. So, Belarusians are not just watching, they also fight against occupants, both on Belarus and Ukraine’s territory. Belarus Battalion named after Kastus Kalinouski was formed to defend Kyiv and one of our compatriots lost his leg in Bucha; another young man was killed.
Our medics work there as well, and this week we agreed with Annalena Baerbock that Germany will provide Belarusians’ medics with a field hospital. Belarusians in the country are united in support of Belarusian independence and opposition to the war. Even before everything started, only 11% of Belarusians agreed that our soldiers should be sent to Ukraine to support Russia, according to the polls of Chatham House.
Even Lukashenka’s supporters now are against the war. We’re hearing reports of discontent among the nomenklatura and the army. People understand, they don’t want Belarus to become a pariah, like Russia. In general, the moods in society are changing. As you know, before the war, the pro-Russian moods were predominant. These days, Belarusians are watching what Russia is doing to Ukraine, and they are for themselves. Perhaps this is the reason why Belarusian regular troops refused to cross the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.
Notice that Belarusians are fleeing to Europe and not to Russia. Europe means safety for them, and Russia means war, and we see the spark of pro-European moods among Belarusians, and of course, it inspires me a lot. But the main lesson all of us should learn; that Dictators cannot be re-educated, and definitely, Dictators cannot be appeased. The tyrant Lukashenka enjoys his personal impunity and, believe me, he will try to fool you again and pretend to be a peacemaker or peacekeeper in this situation. But I believe that it’s time for democracy to show its teeth, and it’s crucial to put diplomatic, economic and political pressure on Belarus regime. Lukashenka shares full responsibility for this attack on Ukraine, and I urge for official derecognition of Lukashenka’s regime, through a cessation of diplomatic contacts and public statement of derecognition. Suspend him from Interpol and all international organisations.
On the other hand, we ask the democratic movement to recog – to ask democratic governments to recognise democratic Belarus, and support those who are fighting for freedom and independence. I advocate that sanctions on Putin regimes to be applied on Lukashenka’s clique as well. Belarusian state banks should be disconnected from the SWIFT network, and imports from state enterprises should be banned, for one, so that Russian companies and banks don’t use Belarus as a huge loophole. It’s already happening, and believe me, half measures don’t work, they only make things worse.
And finally, it is paramount to support Belarusian civil society, working from Minsk, Warsaw, Kyiv, Vilnius, wherever. Belarusian civil society now help Ukraine; human rights defenders like Viasna, activists, solidarity funds like BYSOL and the country to live in. The biggest telegram channels like [inaudible – 13:38] and media like Dozhd are constantly working to debunk Russian fakes, helping the refugees and assisting Belarusian soldiers who don’t want to take part in this war.
I also ask you to support initiatives popularising Belarus culture, language and history, everything that strengthens Belarusian national identity. So, I really believe that it’s time for us to show what democracy is capable of. Today, all the world must stand with Ukraine and Belarus. There will be no free Belarus without free Ukraine, and I really believe that Ukraine will been – and that we will join them as free and democratic nation, and this is our dream. Belarusians are ready for democracy, and they want freedom and independence. Please, keep up you important work to make they voice heard. Thank you [applause].
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Thank you very much for those strong words, Sviatlana, and also for being very specific, I think, towards the end in what you’re looking for from Western leaders and governments in Europe, governments in the US, and elsewhere around the world, in terms of support. Let me just, if I can, follow-up with a couple of quick questions to you, and then I’ll bring Katia in as well. You mentioned that you’ve been meeting with Belarus people here in London and, I think, with other citizens around Europe and outside. How big is this diaspora, this group of people outside, how important are they, do you think, to the movement? How can you leverage them, how are they helping, and how can we interact, to that extent, with them in that process?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
You know, since summer 2020, we saw that Belarusian diaspora exist, that they are with Belarusians, because in the past, like, Belarusians lived separately, you know, their – no one country, there were no Belarusian, like, united diaspora, people lived separately, you know. But the events in Belarus united all Belarusian support, and since summer 2020, they started to organise movements, they started to organise rallies. They organised elections in the country they live in. They organised counting, independent counting of voters, and since then, after crackdown, after our uprising, they became even more active. And now in almost every country there is organisation of Belarusian people who are working with governments, who are working with ministries, with the parliaments, you know, to promote Belarusian issue, and they help – you know, it’s difficult to underestimate, because without they rallies, without they constant letters to governments, it would be much more difficult to seize attention of different countries.
So, they are our voices. They are Belarusian voices in their countries, and people who flee Belarus because of repressions, they can find support in Germany and Poland, you know, in Slovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, everywhere, because we know that there are people who will help everybody, who will help to find job, who will help to send chil – a child to kindergarten. You know, it’s also very important, and we have so-called People’s Embassies in many countries, who just fulfil obligation of regimes, Ambassadors and, you know, communicating with Ministers of Foreign Affairs. You know, they are our voices, and I’m so grateful to every people who didn’t give up ‘til now, because, you know, all the people have their own life, and they are accept – they are doing they job, and coming to diaspora and doing extra job, and I am grateful for they strength.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Just a follow-up question on that specifically. One of the things that’s been noticeable in Russia is the extent to which the – any vestige or any aspect of independent media has been shut down now. Social media is becoming more and more controlled in Russia. The capacity for information to get in is so difficult. Could you say something about the situation in Belarus, has the Lukashenka regime managed to control, shut down media in a similar way? Is it possible for you to get the messages from outside into the country? Can you just say something about that context today?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
You know, what is – Russian media are going through now, we have gone through this for this year-and-a-half, and I suppose that Lukashenka gave example to Kremlin how alternative media could be shut down. Because all the alternative media have been destroyed in Belarus, but they managed to restore the work in different countries, and thanks to support of, you know, of international community, of assistance from different countries, they are managing to work somehow.
Of course, there is a lack of Journalists on the ground, but now every person in Belarus is somehow – became Journalist, and of course, most of viewers now on YouTube, on Instagram, Telegram channels, so, people are very creative; they found how to get out of these restrictions. People in Belarus use VPN to avoid all the restrictions in Belarus, and people know how to find information. And what regimes already did is that he – it declared all the alternative – most of the alternative media as ‘extremist’ and you, if you, for example, watching something and somebody sees this, so, you could be detained for following some channels. But, you know, life is teaching us, and people delete the history, you know, they somehow managing to be, you know, to follow alternative media and to keep they safety. And now the same is happening in Russia and, of course, all those alternative media have to be restored in different countries, and I think they’re doing this already. You know, it’s almost impossible to forbid YouTube, you know, people will know how to reach real information.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
It’s important to remember the point you just made there, the extent to which, in a way, Russia in the last – especially in the last month or plus, has actually repressed further and where Belarus was before…
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Yeah.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
…which was even more repressive, this is important reminder, you know, there. One more question, then I want to bring Katia in. Could you say a bit more about the issue of recognition? ‘Cause I’ve asked colleagues around here, and I think there’s a lack of clarity, I think, amongst the analytical community, as well as perhaps Chatham House members. Where are we, where are you on what you would like to see, in terms of recognition, not recognition?
The European Parliament has stepped up and, I think, in essence, at least passed a motion to recognise the democratic movement as the legitimate government of Ukraine. I think maybe the Lithuanian Government has done something similar, but there’s a little bit of a lack of clarity over what has happened, and what you are looking to make happen as a response in that space. What could you share with us on your approach to recognition, does it help, does it not, should people – you know, is it a Venezuela option? I mean, could you just tell us what your approach is on?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
You know, now we see that before – because of becoming accomplice of Russia, and because Russia is, like, I – hopefully losing this war, Lukashenka feels very weak now, and we have to – you know, regime feels very insecure and fragile, and Lukashenka, he can’t be guarantor of our sovereignty any more, and only after the war have started, we decided to create a Cabinet where representatives from Belarus and people from exile will be – it will be a new centre of power, ‘cause Lukashenka is – can’t fulfil his duties about independence anymore. He’s illegal and illegitimate for year-and-a-half already, and he is not recognised as ruler among Belarusians, he’s not recognised as President among democratic countries. But still we hear, you know, some signals that people are communicating with him.
Emmanuel Macron called him once, Angela Merkel called him, and we have to deprive him of all legitimacy. No Ambassadors should be sent to Belarus. No Ambassadors should be accepted, you know, in different countries, I mean, Belarusian Ambassadors, just to give him this clear understanding that, “You’re not – you don’t represent Belarusian people. You are not guarantor of your sovereignty. You sold – you are selling your country to, you know, to military occupations, you’re selling your country to Kremlin at the moment.” But there is centre – another centre of power. We are already working with the Ambassadors from different countries. We are already accepted on the highest level in, you know, by – in European, in countries in the USA, so, we are recognised by – but this is not formalised. We need to give this – I mean, European countries, democratic countries have to send clear message to nomenklatura, to the army and to military officers that, “Look, there is centre of power, we recognise it as alternative for you.”
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Exactly.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
“You can join them and, you know, we – you know, they are new Belarus, not Lukashenka, who is weak now.”
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
So, it’s really about making this emphasis on – not recognising him is probably the most important first step you’re doing and, I must say, I was really struck by your opening remark, something along the lines of, you know, that Lukashenka had lost the right, not just – it’s not just a fight over democracy, but it’s now become a fight over sovereignty, and that since that use of Belarusian territory for this purpose, the nature of the struggle, if you want to call it that, has changed.
Katia, let me bring you in, because I think this is a very important bridge. From my limited knowledge of Belarus, part of what Lukashenka had going for him is that he’d, sort of, kept a form of sovereignty, and now that has been fiction – that has been turned into a fiction and revealed as a fiction. To what extent do you think that there is room for the nomenklatura, those perhaps in positions of power, in business, in the military, in the security services, for that group to be – to lose their support, or to be wedged, or to be changed somehow, in terms of how they interact with the government? Do you see this as an opportunity, or is it going to become harder?
Katia Glod
Yes, well, thank you very much for this question, Robin. I think there is definitely an opportunity. I can’t agree more with Sviatlana that the war in Ukraine, the Russian war in Ukraine has galvanised public opinion within Belarus. We know the figures from Chatham House poll that was conducted before the war started that 60% of Belarusian public thought that Belarus’ involvement in this war would be a catastrophe, and I’m sure that now the numbers have gone up, because – not less because for Belarusians, they think war is something that touch nearly every family.
The memory of World War Two is very high in Belarus. It was erased as a country, many people were evacuated, many people had to flee the country, so therefore now, I think – and what Sviatlana mentioned, when there was this protest on the 27th of February, when people came out, despite 18 months of very high level of repression, it really showed how anti-war the public opinion in Belarus is.
If we look at the nomenklatura, if we look at the elites, it seems to me that Lukashenka’s dragging Belarus into the war has also demoralised them. It’s – we saw very similar pictures to the ones we saw, in fact, in Russia when Putin was talking to his Security Council. We saw very grim faces of Belarusian officials learning about the war when Lukashenka was showing them the map. On the – when Lukashenka a few days ago, for example, had to sign in the results of the referendum, he apologised. He kept saying that, “You should believe me, trust me, please, we are not participating, our troops are not participating in the war, we are not an aggressor state.” So, there is a clear message, seems to me, coming through from the nomenklatura and from the elites that the government, the regime, including the security services, I think they’ve been absolutely demoralised. So, the question is, how do we use this opinion, how do we use this momentum to bring about change?
Lukashenka lost legitimacy after the 2020 Presidential election. His rating remains around 25% and I think probably after the start of the war and Belarus’ involvement in it, it has very likely gone down. And I think very interesting will be to see how Lukashenka will be able to manoeuvre, if at all. I think the economy will be now a key issue. Obviously, we have seen already the effect of the Western sanctions, particularly more sectoral sanctions in the last few weeks, when Belarusian potash was, for example, banned from being shipped abroad, and now more sanctions come in on Belarus because of Belarus’ participation in the war.
I think Lukashenka is really trapped, he had rely on Putin. We know again today it was announced that Lukashenka is going tomorrow to see Putin again, so, he – no doubt he will be asking for more money. But again, the last time Lukashenka went to see Putin a few weeks ago and he wanted to receive a 3.9 billion loan, he did not receive it, and now, with the sanctions on Russia and with the Russian international foreign currency reserves being frozen, it’s very unlikely that Putin will provide more financial assistance to Lukashenka.
So, on the one hand, that would leave us to think that maybe there is momentum to push Lukashenka to change his view, to change his policy, but I – in my view, I think he will be getting closer and closer to Putin, although he will not be supported, I think, within the elites, within the nomenklatura. And I think the key is really for the democratic opposition movement, for Sviatlana, who is viewed as a moral compass, and for the first time as a real opposition force, which Belarus had not had for, you know, since Lukashenka came into power back in 1994, for the opposition, democratic movement to bring in the message inside the country. And the question is, how do you reach people there? How do you galvanise them into action?
Like, when there was this organised appeal from Sviatlana on the 27th of February, and people took out to the streets, I think that was very good example that need to be augmented and followed. But obviously the question is, how do you reach to the elites as well? And even though they don’t support Lukashenka, they still are very fearful, especially having Russian forces and armed forces in Belarus now. I think any attempt of palace coup is unlikely because the elites will be very scared of the – of Putin and Russia’s potential action.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Sviatlana – I’m going to come and take some questions from the floor and then a few from online, but, Sviatlana, could you say a word or two more about sanctions as well, and whether – how they need to be calibrated, so they don’t actually drive Lukashenka, and potentially then Belarus, even closer to Russia, kind of, stuck in a – as we’ve often seen, sanctions don’t often work in changing things, they can punish, but they’re not necessarily great for change. Are you concerned that the drive for sanctions might actually entrench Lukashenka and push him closer to Vladimir Putin?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Look, I think they are already as close as possible, you know, and, you know, when – after our uprising, when I started to meet with the leadership of European Union countries, you know, I explained to them that on dictatorship, only economic pressure is working, and diplomacy doesn’t work, and we, since the beginning, asked for tough sectoral sanctions on the regime. It’s a pity that it took only ten months, you know, to make decisions; only after a hijacking of Ryanair flight, first sectoral sanctions have been imposed, with huge loopholes but nevertheless. And for example, this migration attack on Poland and Lithuania didn’t cost Lukashenka anything at all, and he feels impunity, and he thinks he can do everything he can because democracy is weak, democracy can’t show its teeth, and I still believe that sanctions is the most powerful instrument that democracy have. And now, when such a huge response was given to the aggression of Russia by democratic countries, the same response should be given to Lukashenka’s regime as well, because he’s already – Kremlin’s already using Belarus, Belarusian enterprises as a loophole for continuing trading. For example, Russian Severstal is already selling steel through Belarus enterprises.
If Belarusian state banks will not be switched off from SWIFT, it will be opportunity for Kremlin to trade, to continue economic relationship. So, Lukashenka has to share the responsibility, because it’s because of him our country became enemy to Ukrainians. And we still have to explain the situation for the people who are not involved into Belarusian fight, that we – people and regime are two different things. Belarusian students already, like, abused in some universities, Belarusian people, you know, are not let into some restaurants, you know, we have such cases of this changing of attitude to people. And it’s very important now not to hide that you’re Belarusian, but to explain people that, “We are not on the side of regime, that we are fighting, that we are supporting Ukrainians, we are doing all possible, you know, to support people in Ukraine” and – but I come back to sanctions. Sanctions do work when they are joint, when they are tough and they are, you know, odnevremennyy.
Katia Glod
Simultaneous.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Okay, simultaneous, yeah, because first sanctions in Belarus were imposed, some individual sanctions. I don’t consider them to be sanctions, but still, five months, next ten months, so, regimes know how to use this time, you know, to circumvent sanctions, to look for new forms of avoiding them. We are dealing with the experienced regimes.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Thank you very much. Right, let me open up here and take some questions, we’ve got lots there. Take a question there first, and then the lady in front, so, maybe these two here. I’ll come down this side after that. Yeah.
Thomas Cole
Sure. Thomas Cole, Freelance Journalist. Are you concerned that Belarus could ultimately be completely absorbed into the Russian Federation and no longer exist as an independent state?
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Okay, just hold that thought. “Are you worried that Belarus could be absorbed?” To the lady just in front there as well, I’ll come – yeah.
Anna Matveeva
Thank you. Ana Matveeva, King’s College, London. Can you please tell us a bit more about the Belarusian democratic movement, how it’s organised, how united it is, and if you maybe like to comment on the case of Roman Protasevich. Thank you.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
So, maybe a couple of questions on those issues. How concerned are you about Belarus being absorbed, yeah, and then a question about organisation and – of the democratic opposition.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
You know, everything has changed when the war started, and now we understand that the fate of U- Belarus is – depends on the fate of Ukraine, because if – I don’t believe in this, but if Ukraine fails, there will be no more free Belarus, because Lukashenka will feel his power gain because he was supporting Putin, you know, and of course, we will be able to lose our sovereignty, independency.
Maybe formally Lukashenka will be keeping his power, but actually, we will be about absolutely – products are in – under absolutely control of Russia. That’s why we put all our efforts to support Ukrainians, you know, to help them to somehow – how we can, because, you know, on the outcome of this war depends how long my children will not see their daddy, how long Maria Kolkesnikova and other people will stay in jail, because with strong – with the victory of Ukraine, Lukashenka will lose all the legitimacy, and even in the eyes of his cronies.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Do you want to say something on that first at all, on this issue of the risk of absorption? There’s the economic side as well. I mean, the more you push the two sides together, the more, you know, they might say, “Well, let’s use the ruble and get rid of the currency and, sort of, create a de facto union.”
Katia Glod
Yes, yeah, no, I agree with Sviatlana, that if Putin wins, he will be emboldened, he may go further. I think it’s unlikely to absorb Belarus formally, because in a way the Lukashenka regime is already a puppet regime, and it does what Putin tells him, Lukashenka does what Putin tells him to do. In a way, there is no need to actually annex it formally, but of course this danger is, and it will be higher in case Putin wins, and that here, Belarus will be just one of those other countries, like Moldova and potentially South Caucasus. And I also think that, of course, if Ukraine wins it will be very good, big momentum for Belarus, and again this is something that Belarus could galvanise on and potentially get rid of Lukashenka.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Another reason why they won’t want to lose the effort.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Maybe I will add a little bit more about this. Of course, I understand that, you know, the things will be much, much worse for us and for Ukrainians when – if, sorry, if Russia wins, but we – maybe sometimes we forget that country is not about President, it’s not about army, but it’s about people. I’m sure that even if something goes wrong in Ukraine, Ukrainian people will not give up. It will be the region of constant conflict, and the same about Belarus. Despite of repressions, despite of tortures in our country, people step-by-step, you know, showing the regime that, “We are here, we are not giving up, we are still resistant to you. Yes, you have army, you have a military force, but we are people of this country, and we are not going to lose our strength.” So, the – it will not be like, “Okay, we lost, please, Kremlin, we are here for you.” No, people will still continue their resistance and…
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
And on the organisation, on that second question, how organised you can be right now, inside the country and beyond it and the connections between the two, any – obviously you may not want to say everything about how you’re organised but, yeah, whatever you could share with us on that.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
First of all, I have to say that I’m really proud that for year-and-a-half we are – democratic forces are united as never before, and despite of all the attempts of the regime to quarrel us, to split us, we managed to overcome everything. So, we are not just vertical, we are mostly horizontal res – formation, organisation. We have a lot of different initiatives, a lot of small and big organisations that are doing they job, and it doesn’t mean that I’m, as their leader, tell them what they have to do. We are communicating, we are co-ordinating our actions, but we have a strategy: to create multiple points of pressure on the regime, on the one hand; on the other hand, to help Belarusian people, to help political prisoners, to help people in exile. And everybody is doing what he or she can, what the organisation can do, the same in Belarus. One people are brave enough to go and to make some, kind of, provocation on the railway, not to let military tanks, you know, to go on the territory of Ukraine. Some people are ready only to send letters to political prisoners. Some are also brave enough to widespread self-made newspapers. Some can write, “I’m anti – I am against war,” and go onto the main streets of Minsk, and so on.
So it’s everybody’s contribution into this fight, and I’m trying a lot, you know, every day to communicate with people in Belarus, to communicate with all this organisation, to understand what’s going on, but not to influence the decisions they work. I – my global task is to find assistance to all this organisations, you know. I’m communicating with European Union, with countries, you know, to launch more support or more practical help to media, to human rights defendant centres and so on, but then, it’s they job, you know, they continue.
And as far Roman Protasevich, you know, he is a hostage and regime is using him now. He’s started to say something about Belarus, you know, that, “I’m on the side of Lukashenka,” already, you know, all these things, and people don’t pay attention to he – what he’s saying, because nobody knows in which – in what conditions…
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Exactly.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
…yeah – he’s now. So, we accept him the same as political prisoner, as hostage of the regime. They want to use him, but, you know, people [inaudible – 43:27].
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Thank you very much. A question here. I’m going to go over there. Yeah, Charles.
Charles Grant
Thank you. Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform. In Ukraine, if the Russians succeed in taking large chunks of territory, there will be a guerrilla movement of opposition, one imagines, that’s highly likely, for violent resistance. In Belarus, the opposition has avoided violence, it’s used non-violent methods. Might there come a point where you think the opposition has to resort to violence, and if so, in what – and in what circumstances, and what would your view be on that?
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Right, yeah, use of violence, and yeah, please, Orysia.
Orysia Lutsevych
Dobry den, Sviatlana. Orysia Lutsevych, I’m the Head of Ukraine Forum, really pleased to see you. I think it’s very important that we all heard what Sviatlana says, that we have to make sure Belarusian boys don’t cross the border in Ukraine. Belarusian territory was already used to launch over 70 ballistic missiles, including in civilian infrastructure. I really hope you can mobilise all the courage there is among the people in Belarus to mount threat anti-war protest, it’s key. And also I think what you’re calling for, applying sanctions similar to Belarus for Russia, for dragging into Belarus and why I hope you all hear.
Another question, because I know when you started your democratic resistance, you were very cautious to speak against Russia, for obvious reasons. Now, Prime Minister Johnson said, “Russia must fail, Putin must fail, Putinism must fail.” What do you say should be the strategy for Putinism to fail? Because he doesn’t give anybody, neither Belarus nor Ukraine, a peaceful future. How would you suggest we do it?
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Do you want to take those two questions? And actually, that one you’ve just asked there, matches one online here from Vera Horton, again, whether – the indication of Vera’s question is that you’re being cautious about what you say about Putin, and I think there’s a similar question coming there, so, those two for you.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
You know, I’m now sometimes blamed that at the beginning, we had a peaceful revolution. At the beginning, Belarusians were admired for peaceful revolution, that we didn’t want any violence, and now we are accused that, “Look, you didn’t get rid of the regime, maybe because of, you were too peaceful.” But I believe in law. I believe that unity, strong decisions can give our – can help us, you know, to get rid of the regime. And people in Belarus didn’t have experience of uprising and violent uprising, and now, of course, looking at what’s going on in Ukraine, we understand that context is different, situation is different. They are – government and people are on the one side, we are here, on two different sides. I still believe that Belarusian people don’t have to take guns in their hands, and moreover, we don’t have these guns. But I believe – I think that now those people who can act braver, who can do something else than flowers and balloons, as said in Belarus, they can do this, and they will not be punished for this in free, democratic Belarus. So, we give more opportunities to – not give, just, we, like, we not allow, we don’t condemn those people who are ready to do something.
Who knows what’s going – what will be in the future? You know, we can’t predict, but I still – we are trying, through media, communicate with our soldiers, you know, with our officers, with nomenklatura. We don’t want to be similar to regime, we don’t want blood on our hands, you know, and we don’t want to be as low as they are, but times and time change, times changes. Vremena menyayutsya, times change, yeah.
And as for being cautious, you know, once in one of my interviews at the beginning of our revolution, once I told, “Why is Putin?” Because at that moment, you know, I thought that maybe Russia will see our uprising, that the most of the country is against Lukashenka, and at that moment they were hesitating, you know, to support or not support. You know, they gave focus on [Khamani – 48:24] but, you know, they answer to our revolution wasn’t very clear. But now of course, everything has changed, and my rhetoric for a couple of months already was changing towards the Kremlin, and now I – of course I see that Putin is responsible for the war in Ukraine, and he dragged our country into this war. But again, yesterday, when I met with the Britain diaspora, I was asked the question if Putin and Russia are our enemies and knowing the situation in Belarus, when some people say, “Belarus is aggressor or Belarus is enemy,” I can’t agree with this, because Belarusian people and regime, two different things, and it’s the same about Russia.
We know that a lot of people in Russia don’t want this war. They have relatives in Ukraine, they hearts are bleeding because of this situation, so, we have to separate in Russia as well Kremlin and Russian people, so, Russia is not enemy; regime, Dictator is our common enemy in this situation.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Thank you very much. I do want to just bring a couple of people, if I can, online, ‘cause I’ve got so many hands up in the room, but we’ve also got equal number of questions, many, many dozens here. So, could I see if we can open up a question from Camilla Follett? Camilla, are you there? ‘Cause I don’t have the screen in front of me. Or can we do them live?
Camilla Follett
Thank you very much, yes, this is Camilla Follett.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
We can hear you, yes, please go ahead.
Camilla Follett
I’m a student at UCLC. I wanted to ask, how can we successfully enter a dialogue with the Belarusian civilians who are not already part of the democratic movement, especially with the worsening crackdown on the media? Thank you.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
So, that question, just ‘cause, Camilla, we couldn’t hear it perfectly and now it’s been deleted off my screen, but never mind, was, I think, along the lines of, “What is happening about defections?” Yes, was that – no, Camilla Follett was a different question. In any case, did you hear the question, did anyone hear the question?
Member
People were not involved in military sanctions.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
That’s – thank you. How can you get people not involved in the demo…?
Member
[Inaudible – 50:48].
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Exactly, how can we get people not involved in the democratic movement involved in the democratic movement, given how separated there are? Do you want to take that very specific question first, that broader population that maybe have been bought in, especially with the crackdown on the media? I now remember the end of the question, thank you very much. Please, maybe Sviatlana first and then…
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
You know, for 27 years, Belarusian people were mostly apolitical, and a new generation grew up. New generation of people who see how our country can develop if not for government, if – or of mismanaging. And more and more, I think that there were many reasons why people uprised in 2020, but at that moment it was shock for Lukashenka. He always knew that there is a group of opposition, but at that moment 70/80% of people were against him, and he was so scared of this fact. And that’s why he defeated our uprising so cruelly, and those people who were not involved in politics, they again returned into they kitchens to discuss politics, returned to their families. “Okay, you know, it’s too difficult to be in politics, I don’t want to be there.” And now, for this year-and-a-half, we were fighting for this middle group of population.
We explained them how our country is working, where they taxes go, everything about law. It was mostly about education, it was people – you know, they don’t want to understand how everything is working, and people are undereducated, especially, you know, older generation. And our task was to explain, not to say them that, “You’ll be – you will live wonderful after we came to power.” There was no populism in our policy, but we wanted to – people – we wanted people to know more about our country, and now of course, our anti-war movement absorbed much more people than we could absorb in our pro-democratic movement, because democracy, it’s so difficult. You know, “What is parliament, how it works, you know, should I be responsible for the future of my country?”
You know, people sometimes are lazy, honestly speaking, but war is so clear, deaths are so understandable. This maternity hospital bombing was so shocking for Belarusian people, and now people are more and more involved in anti-war movement.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
And do they know it, do they know it’s happened in Belarus? Do they know that attack on Mariupol took place?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
We are trying to do our best through alternative media to explain. It’s a pity, I say that a lot of people don’t know the reality. Some people believe in state propaganda, some people live too far away, you know, to, even to be interested in other countries. But again, we are using media, we are using self-made newspapers, different channels, we are using – you know, we are asking our people, “Communicate to your neighbours, communicate to your partners, ex” – people are quarrelling in the same families about the situation. Persuade, give the facts, just…
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Exactly, see what happens.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Yeah.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Katia, quickly on this, then I’m going to bring in a couple of questions that have been waiting for a long time. Yeah, please, Katia first.
Katia Glod
Yes, well, I would like to underline here that the public opinion hasn’t changed on Lukashenka. He still has 2o/25%. The question is how to – how do you make these people more reactive? And I think there are three main points. The first one is vision, that’s the democratic opposition that, again, Belarus has had for the first time in its all nearly 30 years’ history of independence, and it has to create very clear emotional vision, future-looking vision, exciting vision.
Lukashenka is not capable to providing – capable of providing it, and there is no way therefore he will regain public opinion, but the vision should also be emotional. Yes, it should be anti-war, it should be about democracy, and it should be perhaps about market economy, and once people realise that the democratic opposition does offer an alternative that might work in Belarus, then I think these people from the middle ground will see some opportunity for them.
The second point is campaign. Sviatlana and her team has been doing fantastic work, trying to reach out people inside Belarus, but it’s very difficult. It’s not like a normal country, you can go door-to-door, and you can knock and talk to people. It’s not possible, no-one is – would dare to do that today in Belarus, so, we are really left to social media. I think social media can be explored perhaps a bit more, you can use maybe paid advertising on various social media, so that people will see specific stories perhaps, and storytelling is very popular, about how democratic movement is different from what Lukashenka is offering.
And the third point is establishing contacts with the – within the elites, with the regime, which is again very, very hard, because the regime in Belarus has been very vertical, very streamlined. You don’t get various, kind of, branches of power, of thought. It really, all boils down to Lukashenka and his son, who controls security services. But the team in Warsaw, the ByPol team, they’re working very actively on that. These are the former security services who are people from the former – from the security services who defected, and they are working to establish these contacts, but it is a very long-term process and it takes time, as Sviatlana said. Therefore, I mean, they – I think the opposition is working in that direction, but it’s – it will take time.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
I’m going to squeeze in a last little group of questions, if you’re alright, with all the questions you’re taking. Two at the front row, and you’ve been waiting for a very, very long time. Please, yeah, the gentleman over there.
James Nixey
Sure. James Nixey, Chatham House. Thank you very much indeed, and thank you to both panellists really for a very insightful and inspirational 60 minutes, and it’s about inspiration I wanted to ask you, Sviatlana. You mentioned it in your opening remarks, and specifically about your adopted homeland of Lithuania. Lithuania has taken you in, and so many of your countrywomen and men, and it’s – it stood up to Russia before the war, it stood up to China. So, I suppose what I wanted to ask is, what is it about the Lithuanians, the Lithuanian Government, if you like, maybe the people, that maybe we can learn from, what can they – how can we learn from them to tackle the Russia challenge?
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Okay, keep that thought. Yeah.
Sean Curtin
Sean Curtin, Chatham House Member. I’d like to ask both Sviatlana and Katia, what happens if the war goes very badly for Putin or he loses, what will be the effect on Belarus, but also on those other puppet states such as Abkhazia, North Ossetia and the Transnistria Republic? Because if the army isn’t almighty and all-dominating then is there anything to fear, will there not be more people in Georgia trying to regain territory, and also in Moldova? Thank you.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Okay, and, yeah, question right there in the middle. Sorry for…
Euan Grant
Yeah, thank you very much. Euan Grant, Chatham House member. I’ve got a copy of Tom Clancy’s Commander-in-Chief on my Kindle, and I know how prescient that is, and how much of it is set on the Lithuanian-Belarus border. My question is about winning the information war. What messages should the classmates and Teachers of all the expensive private schools in the West be saying to the sons and daughters of regime insiders in Minsk, and indeed in Moscow?
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
So, what are the key messages we should be giving to the nomenklatura, as opposed to that next generation, what might work for them, specifically, I think, was that last question, yeah, ‘cause it’s for the elite insiders, was the question. And the second one was, you know, if the war goes badly, what might be the spill over effects? I don’t know if you’re in a position to talk about that or not. Obviously, the first one was about Lithuania and what we can learn from that, so…
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
For sure, I will take…
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
We’re a few minutes over, so, I’ll let you use your time as quickly as you want.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Yeah, for sure, I will take the question about Lithuania, because what I understood from the situation in Belarus, that small countries can be as brave as powerful countries sometimes cannot be, and I’m so proud to be – that Lithuania became my second home at the moment. I feel full support for myself, for Belarusian people in this wonderful country. Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, also very welcoming, and Poland of course, especially, but Lithuania is so brave.
Lithuania, at the beginning – not at the beginning, after European Union sanctions left so many loopholes in the sanction policy, they wanted to close the loopholes by stopping transition of potash through they territory. We – I understand national interests were touched, but they decided to do this for us, and I want other countries to watch small, brave Lithuania and started from this premise.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
And I’m going to let you take – do you want to say anything about the spill over or maybe you, Katia, do you want to take that question about spill over very quickly?
Katia Glod
Yes, yeah, I do think that if Putin loses then it will be a good trigger point for Belarus. I do think that that can – would be a – for Lukashenka it would be very difficult to manoeuvre, and I think there will be some momentum within the elite, that they might think that, “He’s not the guy that we have to support, and maybe the time to jump off his ship is actually coming, is coming and should be used.” So, I do think that Lukashenka will also go eventually.
I’m not an expert on Moldova or on Georgia, but it seems to me that, you know, Transnistria, they already, I think, a few days ago there was information that they wanted again to ask for independence, to secede. Maybe in Georgia, the government will try to retake the territories, I don’t know, it’s hard for me to comment on that.
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
So, last comment from you, what message, what messages would – do you think we – need to be sent to the elites, in a way, and the sons and daughters of those elites in Belarus and Russia that would make the difference, what would they hear?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
You know, there could be two different messages. People who believe in dictatorship, believe in the regimes and so on, they could say, “Study well, because you – in future, you will have to go to another country, because there is no future in Belarus anymore.” And the other message is that, “You are responsible for the future of the country. Please don’t look at me, as a part of nomenklatura you are starting to make this country better, and please do your best now, in order not to repeat the mistakes that we are doing now.”
Dr Robin Niblett CMG
Thank you very much. Look, let me, first of all, before we say thank you, apologise to all of you in the room who had your hands up from the beginning. I took as many as I could, and apologies, especially to all of you online, ‘cause I took one in the end directly, though a few of your questions were answered, as you will have known, from the ones here in the room.
So, finally, Katia, thank you very much for your insights but, Sviatlana, we’re really, really, obviously, thrilled to have you here, back with Chatham House. It is one of those historic moments where I think one has to decide where you stand. We’re an analytical organisation, we analyse a lot, but when you see things be as wrong as they are, you have to decide where you stand and stand for it, and I think Chatham House stands with you, and with the people of Belarus. Thank you very much indeed [applause].
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Thank you.
