Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself against Russian full-scale aggression and preserve its own independence is critical for the security of Europe as a whole. Recovery efforts both to maintain the stability of Ukraine’s home front and support the country’s continuing ability to resist Russia are an essential part of this picture. Although the war is ongoing, and no end is in sight, rapid reconstruction and planning for the post-war recovery in Ukraine are under way. Recovery will necessarily be a complex and wide-ranging process. But, if carried out to its full potential, the rebuilding of Ukraine may prove to be one of the most significant European economic projects of this century. It is essential that the opportunity for a fully inclusive recovery is not missed.
This research paper makes the case that a fully inclusive, citizen-led recovery is the route to achieving a prosperous and secure future for Ukraine. The paper presents the findings from Chatham House’s latest annual survey of Ukrainian civil society organizations (CSOs), which provides a unique insight into both the role of CSOs and their views on the recovery. The paper then draws on this survey data, alongside other relevant public opinion surveys and research, to lead a discussion on how Ukraine can effectively rebuild as the war continues, and how it can prepare the right framework for a fully fledged recovery starting from the day when peace finally arrives. The discussion focuses on one of the key dimensions of that recovery process – the engagement of citizens and communities.
The paper assesses the quality of partnership between the state, citizens and communities at present and suggests improvements to the recovery framework currently emerging. It argues that constructive co-creation and co-delivery of projects by non-state actors is one of the keys to sustaining Ukraine’s resilience and ensuring a just recovery.
Today, 65 per cent of Ukrainians express trust in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This percentage has nearly doubled since February 2022.
Ukraine’s long-standing political culture is characterized by non-hierarchical links between citizens and by a tradition of delivering results despite, rather than because of, the actions of central authorities. Ukraine’s Soviet and post-independence history engendered high levels of mistrust in central government among the population. But the present successful defence of Ukraine has increased trust in national leadership compared to pre-war years: today, 65 per cent of Ukrainians express trust in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This percentage has nearly doubled since February 2022. However, the rally-around-the-flag effect is likely to be a factor in such high support. Trust in the central government may well erode in peacetime, for example if internal instability swells. To an extent, the phenomenon can already be observed, as the level of public trust in the Cabinet of Ministers has declined significantly since 2022. Only 20 per cent of Ukrainians now express trust in the cabinet.
In contrast, trust in volunteers remains high. Ukrainians know that Russia is failing to destroy their country thanks to a whole-of-society resistance. Business and individual donations, volunteering, civil defence and local self-governance are all being mobilized to defeat Russia. Citizen volunteer groups have higher trust ratings, while CSOs are trusted nearly as much as Zelenskyy.
One of the main lessons from our research is that a system that meaningfully integrates Ukraine’s vibrant civil society, volunteer movements and communities into a state-led recovery stands the best chance of converting this emerging institutional trust into a functional recovery framework, and of ensuring the country’s future political stability.
