In reality, the recent escalation of Chechen-related violence has produced a fraught emotional climate, in which the distinction between the Islamic mainstream and radicalism has become increasingly blurred. Despite public disclaimers, Russian attitudes towards political Islam are hardening – a development that has major implications for its policy towards the Middle East.
The consequences of Moscow’s attitudinal shift emerge most clearly in two areas: re-evaluation of the relationship with Iran, and a more co-operative approach towards post-conflict security and reconstruction in Iraq. Both bear the imprint of a changing strategic calculus after September 11 2001, above all the need to respond to a new international security agenda shaped by concrete threat perceptions rather than geopolitical stereotypes.
