Mariia Brusova has been displaced twice. First, in 2014, when Russian proxy forces invaded and occupied her home city of Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine. Then in 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion, targeting her new home, Kharkiv.
Like the majority of six million Ukrainians, who have become refugees since February 2022, Mariia fled Russian missiles without knowing where she would end up. Eventually, she settled in Germany, where she has been living with her teenage son ever since. She was able to get her Ukrainian degree recognized and now works as a nurse in Germany. ‘Even if I wanted to return, I wouldn’t be able to have a decent life in Ukraine,’ she said. ‘Even if Luhansk is liberated, it will still be unlivable in for at least 10 years.’
Like her, many Ukrainians have settled their children into schools, learned the language and found jobs in their host countries. Initially keen to return, many Ukrainians now feel differently. More than 1.1 million Ukrainian refugees reside in Germany, with 900,000 in Poland, 380,000 in the Czech Republic and 240,000 in Britain.
While 74 per cent said they wanted to return in November 2022, that number had fallen to around 42 per cent by December 2024. (It is not yet known how these preferences have been affected by the prospect of a potential negotiation between the US and Russia to bring the war to an end.)
Many now find themselves in a dilemma: they are aware conditions in host countries are not as accommodating as they were, but despite Kyiv’s efforts, they are hesitant to return to Ukraine until a sustainable peace is secured.
Changing intentions
Mariia recently managed to switch from her temporary protection status to a work visa, which in three years could lead to permanent residency in Germany. But few refugee Ukrainians meet the stringent requirements, which often include a full-time job and a relatively high level of income.
This creates a discrepancy between the long-term intentions of Ukrainians and the policies of their host countries. The UK for example, where 68 per cent of Ukrainians would like to remain, according to an April 2024 survey, has been explicit that temporary protection will not lead to permanent settlement. British officials said this approach was adopted in consultations with the government in Kyiv, which wants Ukrainians to return.
Ukraine’s economy has been badly affected by the outflow of refugees. Ukraine has lost a third of its consumer base, and calculations by the Kyiv-based Centre for Economic Strategy show Ukraine’s GDP could fall by 7.8 per cent if the majority of refugees do not return.
Ukraine’s demographic prospects also look grim. It already has the highest mortality and the lowest birth rate in the world. If current trends continue, Ukraine’s population is destined to fall from 43.8 million in 2021 to 25.2 million in 2051, according to its Ministry of Social Policy. People are needed to help rebuild Ukraine after the war. The government estimates 4.5 million workers will have to be involved in the reconstruction effort over the next decade, yet workforce shortages are already severe.
Ministry of Unity
The Ukrainian government has been increasingly concerned about the non-
return of refugees. However, its approach to this issue is perceived by some Ukrainians abroad as controversial and coercive.
In his New Year address at the start of 2024, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: ‘I know that one day I will have to ask myself: who am I? To make a choice about who I want to be. A victim or a winner? A refugee or a citizen?’
Inna Bezroda, a Ukrainian refugee in Warsaw. She fears Poland may withdraw temporary protection for people like her. Photo: Inna Bezroda.
Many Ukrainians abroad took this to mean wartime refugees were not true citizens. Some fear they will not be accepted back into Ukrainian society. Kyiv has also tried to persuade host countries to stop paying benefits to refugees or rather give this money directly to the Ukrainian state. In the spring of 2024, the government-imposed restrictions without warning on consular services access for Ukrainian men abroad of fighting age.
To get a new passport, all Ukrainian men, including those who left Ukraine before the full-scale Russian invasion, need to provide proof of military registration. Under martial law, men aged 18 to 60 have been prohibited from leaving the country since February 24, 2022. This led to protests outside Ukrainian consulates in Poland, where hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians lived before 2022.
In December 2024, the Ukrainian government created a new institution, the Ministry of National Unity, to address refugee issues. However, Ukrainian refugees The World Today spoke to remained sceptical about its effectiveness. ‘I don’t think this ministry will manage to bring Ukrainian refugees home, as many have already integrated abroad,’ said Inna Bezroda, a Ukrainian refugee in Warsaw. ‘I would like my sons, who are 10 and 13, to continue their education in Poland.’
She added that her main reason for remaining abroad was free access to healthcare. ‘I have a rare type of cancer. Here in Poland, I get treatment for free. In Ukraine, I would have had to pay for it, which I cannot afford.’ She also fears Poland might withdraw temporary protection for people like her who cannot work, especially as discussions about cutting aid to Ukrainian refugees have become part of the country’s presidential election campaign.
Kateryna, a Ukrainian refugee in Norway who withheld her last name due to fears for relatives still in Russian-occupied territory, said she planned to return to Ukraine ‘when active hostilities cease, and occupied territories get demilitarized’. Her home in Donetsk has been occupied since 2014.
‘I don’t have rosy dreams about staying in Norway, I understand I will have to return. But I don’t know when the war will end and I don’t have a place to live’, she said, noting that Norway has recently recognized 14 regions of Ukraine as safe, including Kyiv, despite continuing Russian attacks.
A need for housing and help
A former journalist, Kateryna believes a new communications strategy is needed to encourage Ukrainians to return. ‘It would be great if the government embraced Ukrainian refugees as “members of the same big family, united in their grief”, instead of addressing them as “people who stay abroad because of benefit payments”,’ she said. ‘It should also offer people help with finding a house and work in Ukraine.’
Oksana Zaychenko, a refugee from Kyiv now in Britain, agrees that maintaining the identities of Ukrainian refugees and expatriates should be a priority. She believes host countries and NGOs could help, as Ukraine’s government is already overburdened.
‘It would be wonderful if there were more Ukrainian schools abroad. I was surprised when my child started to forget Ukrainian after almost three years in Britain. In Newcastle, where we live, there are no Ukrainian schools.’
