1. In the short-term, there is a rocky road ahead.
The challenges to the transatlantic relationship lie on both sides of the Atlantic. President Trump’s style — unpredictable, changing, thin-skinned and with a short-term perspective — as well as his stated policy choices make the US a difficult partner. Trump’s failure to re-certify the The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), his cancellation of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), his withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement, his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and his vocal scepticism of the value of NATO are all policies inimical to Europe’s interests.
At the same time, US policymakers are also struggling to maintain engagement with European countries, frequently distracted by their own populist and nationalist movements and who have been focused on holding the EU together not least because of Britain’s intended exit, and they are largely unwilling to invest in additional resources to support the ‘global commons’.