International Law
If Trump’s ‘framework’ Greenland agreement relies on creating ‘sovereign’ bases, it would bring long-term legal issues – Professor Marc Weller
Greenland is an island with the right to independence, which may store up legal problems – as the UK’s experience with the Chagos Archipelago shows.
President Trump may disregard international law – but other countries want to make use of it – Professor Marc Weller ‘Global goals, like the preservation of the environment or the maintenance of peace, remain. They can only be effectively addressed collectively,’ writes the head of Chatham House’s International Law Programme.
The US capture of President Nicolás Maduro – and attacks on Venezuela – have no justification in international law – Professor Marc Weller ‘This may be the moment when Western Europe realizes that the US has abandoned the core values that united them for the past century.’
Who owns Greenland? – Professor Marc Weller ‘Denmark’s claim is unimpeachable.’
Greenland and Europe
Trump’s Davos speech backed off escalation in Greenland. That will not prevent an EU rush for strategic autonomy – Grégoire Roos
‘The troops will remain in their garrisons, for now. The Greenland episode might not have ended in crisis, but it has ended an illusion.’
Podcast: Trump vs Carney at Davos: One summit, two visions. ‘President Trump proclaimed US strength and denigrated Europeans. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney urged smaller nations to adapt to the ‘new reality’ by building coalitions with partners who share values.’
US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO’s future. But European countries are not helpless – By Dr Marion Messmer ‘US threats to annex Greenland following the attack on Venezuela should be taken seriously. European countries have important leverage they should be prepared to use.’
Video: What can NATO in Europe do if US threatens Greenland? – Dr Marion Messmer
Russia
Venezuela shows Russia has lost the initiative in Trump’s global order – Natalie Sabanadze ‘Moscow has prioritized the war in Ukraine over its commitments in Venezuela, Syria and Iran as Trump reshapes the world order.’
Ukraine
This will be used as a pretext for Russian President Vladimir Putin to double down on his aggression in Ukraine – Orysia Lutsevych (third article in the collection) ‘With time, US investments unlocking Venezuela’s oil could be a positive for Ukraine, weakening the Russian war budget with lower oil prices.’
Venezuela
President Trump is going to own whatever happens next in Venezuela – Christopher Sabatini ‘The US’s military action will likely require sustained US engagement of some sort. Will the Trump White House have the stomach for that?’
Video: Who is in charge in Venezuela now? –Dr Christopher Sabatini
Latin America
What would Trump’s threatened strikes on Colombia, Mexico or Cuba achieve? – Dr Christopher Sabatini ‘An underdiscussed aspect to the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ is its deeply partisan nature. Trump has rowed back confrontation with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil and more recently Petro of Colombia. But relations remain tenuous, and it’s not a coincidence that other governments on Trump’s ‘hit list’ are on the left.’
‘Venezuela, oil and order: What now for regional security after the US seizes Maduro? Watch the panel discussion about implications for regional security, where and what is required to rebuild the Venezuelan oil sector and how countries across Latin America will act.
Economics
(Archive, Feb 2025) The economics of the new Monroe Doctrine – By David Lubin ‘President Trump’s actions seem to indicate a hemispheric US foreign policy emerging. There is a bleak logic behind that approach.
Oil
US control of Venezuela’s oil may not be the bonanza that Trump expects – Chris Aylett ‘Robust long-term oil demand is needed to justify significant investment, but is called into question by the growing popularity of electric vehicles.’
Domestic US Politics
Donald Trump’s poll numbers suggest his popularity is waning – Bruce Stokes ‘As the Trump administration enters its crucial second year, polls indicate that much of the American public disapproves of the president and his flagship policies, although views are split along partisan lines.’
Trump ran against these decades-long ‘forever wars’ – Laurel Rapp ‘When US governance of Venezuela turns out to be longer, tricker, and costlier than the Administration is currently anticipating, they won’t just have a Venezuela problem on their hands. They’ll have a MAGA one too.’
Geopolitics
Trump’s Venezuela attack should serve as a warning even to US allies – Heather Hurlburt ‘A muted response to events in Venezuela shows allies still want to avoid confrontation with Washington. But that approach cannot last if the president seeks to force them into alignment with MAGA policy and cultural politics.’
Does Venezuela usher in an era of might is right? – Independent Thinking Podcast
‘This does mark the end of the Western alliance,’ warns Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox in her annual Director’s Lecture ‘We have had from President Trump what amounts to a revolution. He has given the US a radically new role in the world and – at the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence – a role that rejects the principles on which the US was founded: that government should be accountable to the people.’
Panel discussion: The new threat? An imperial America ‘What President Trump’s foreign policy means for Europe, Russia and China. Watch this 16 February Chatham House panel discussion here.
Ten conflicts to watch in 2026 -Interview with International Crisis Group President Comfort Ero. ‘The most dangerous wars and crises through the lens of International Crisis Group’s flagship annual report Ten Conflicts to Watch. Watch the discussion here on 15 January.’
(Archive, March 2025) Competing visions of international order responses to US power in a fracturing world (Multi-author report) ‘After decades of strong support but growing ambivalence, the United States is turning against the liberal international order that it once forged. Where does this changed stance leave the rest of the world?’
Iran
Trump’s objective is to force Iran into strategic submission – Dr Sanam Vakil
The threat of force is still very much on the table – as the president seeks to use pressure and unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US.
Would Trump’s threatened strikes help Iran’s protestors or boost the regime? – Bilal Y. Saab ‘Trump’s threats should be taken seriously, but Iran is not Venezuela – it’s a nation of 90 million people with a resilient regime that can still wreak havoc both at home and abroad. Decapitating the Maduro regime is one thing. Decapitating the theocracy in Tehran is another. ‘
China
Panel discussion: What is China’s vision for a new world order? ‘As America retreats from its dominant role on the global stage changes, experts debate Beijing’s international ambitions and how it aims to remake the world order.’ Watch the 22 January event here.
India
EU and India seek closer relations as Trump upends global order – Dr Chietigj Bajpaee
‘The EU–India Summit can be seen as part of both parties’ broader efforts to diversify and deepen relations with likeminded countries amid pressure from the Trump administration, which has embraced tariffs even against key partners. India has been slapped with 50 per cent tariffs, with additional tariffs threatened over its purchase of Russian crude oil. The US has also previously threatened Europe with tariffs, most recently over Greenland.’
Trump, Diego Garcia and the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ in the Indian Ocean – Nitya Labh, International Security Programme
‘Donald Trump said the UK’s deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius was an ‘act of total weakness’ and ‘great stupidity’. He argued that such weakness on the part of US allies is a reason why the US must acquire Greenland. Trump has justified his insistence on US control of Greenland in part by concerns about the encroaching presence of China and Russia in the north Atlantic and Arctic regions. Now this argument is being extended to the Indian Ocean over sovereignty in the Chagos Archipelago.’
This collection of Chatham House analysis, commentary, events and reports will be updated regularly.
Chatham House is an international affairs think-tank based in London. Its mission is to address geopolitical challenges and international problems. Through this, we aim to help governments and societies to build a secure, sustainable, prosperous and just world. Read about our mission and values here.