The UK has staked a claim to international climate leadership since the closing decades of the 20th century, when human-induced global warming first became a subject of multilateral negotiations.
This has enabled the UK to exert a positive, tangible influence on global efforts to limit temperature rises, beyond reducing its own emissions. But recent damage to the country’s standing means the new British government faces a challenge in trying to restore its reputation.
British claims to climate leadership were more than just hot air. In 2002, the UK launched the world’s first national carbon market. In 2008, it passed the Climate Change Act, which boosted its standing in international climate diplomacy and enabled it to play a leadership role in negotiating the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement.
In 2019, having reduced its greenhouse gas emissions faster than any other G7 country, the UK became the first major economy to pass a law that would, in effect, end its contribution to climate change.
The legally binding target of ‘net zero’ greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 lent momentum to climate goal setting. By 2022, 91 per cent of the global economy was covered by net zero targets, a development aided by the UK’s energetic and widely praised presidency of the COP26 climate conference, held in Glasgow in November 2021.
The UK has also been a major contributor to international climate finance, funding mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. Crucially, at a time when developing country debt is ballooning, most UK finance (85 per cent) has been provided as grants rather than loans, against a global average of 26 per cent.
Setbacks
Despite this impressive record, recent actions by the Conservative government seriously dented the UK’s international standing. In December 2022, the government approved a new metallurgical coal mine in Cumbria, barely a year after an agreement on coal-power phase-out was made a major goal of the COP26 presidency.
In July 2023, the government announced plans to issue hundreds of new oil and gas exploration licences, with the former prime minister Rishi Sunak pledging to ‘max out’ the North Sea.
In September, Sunak announced delays to emissions-reduction policy measures on transport, heating and energy efficiency.
These moves make the new government’s plan to recapture international climate leadership a daunting task.
Rebuilding trust abroad
This task begins with regaining the trust of developing countries. For the UK’s pledge of ‘solidarity’ to be credible, the government must reckon with the desperate shortage of climate finance, especially for adapting to climate change.
The UK cannot close the adaptation finance gap alone. However, it must meet or exceed its own climate finance commitments, while throwing its weight behind wider initiatives, such as the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force.
It should also engage substantively with efforts to reform the international financial architecture, beyond the warm words that have characterized much rich-country involvement with the process to date.
In its manifesto, Labour proposed an international Clean Power Alliance, with the goal of ‘accelerating the energy transition and protecting and enhancing clean energy supply chains’.
In principle, this could facilitate mutually beneficial relationships with developing countries rich in critical minerals. In practice, the UK will need to ensure that these generate substantial and visible benefits for partner countries to avoid accusations of green ‘extractivism’.
The UK will need to ensure that its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which enters into force in 2027, is not interpreted as green protectionism – or worse, as a way of making poor countries fund the UK’s transition. One way to do this would be to redistribute CBAM revenues to trading partners to invest in industrial decarbonization.
The new government should make the most of the UK’s considerable expertise in climate and energy policy. The UK has much to offer countries that want to embed climate action into legislative and policy frameworks, decarbonize electricity grids, introduce carbon pricing or assess climate risk.
Sending a signal from actions at home
Restoring the UK’s international climate leadership will also require the UK to get its own house in order.
The new government’s commitment to no new oil and gas exploration licences sends a powerful signal that would be amplified if it signed up to the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance.
This would allow the UK to credibly push back against accusations of double standards, so common in climate politics.
The government must also show steady progress towards near-term targets, including the UK’s international commitment to reduce emissions by 68 per cent, and Labour’s manifesto pledge of a decarbonized electricity grid, both by 2030.
Both will be immensely challenging. The UK is off track for its 2030 emissions reduction target, and there is widespread scepticism about its ability to meet the electricity pledge.
Preparing UK society
Government efforts at home and abroad must be accompanied by clear communications to UK citizens.
While recent efforts to politicize climate change in the UK have borne little fruit, ill-judged or poorly executed climate policies still present a political risk.
To manage this risk, the new government will need to build understanding of the urgent need to prepare society for the impacts of climate change, both in the UK and abroad.
It will need to show how these intersect with citizens’ most pressing day-to-day concerns, including tinderbox issues such as the cost of living, jobs, and migration.