Japan’s snap election: Why Ishiba’s gamble might pay off

Incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has called for snap elections in a bid to increase his mandate and put his party’s finance scandal to rest.

Expert comment Published 4 October 2024 3 minute READ

Shigeru Ishiba won the 27 September Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader contest over Sanae Takaichi in a decisive vote; he was elected as the 102nd Prime Minister of Japan on 1 October.

This party leader contest was the largest-ever election with nine candidates. Due to the party finance scandal, many factions, which were the source of power distribution in the party, were dissolved. As a result, the election was not based on traditional factional dynamics, but on a free vote by MPs and ordinary LDP members. 

Whereas the previous two party leader contests were an emergency response to the resignation of the prime minister, this time the election followed the expiry of Kishida’s term of party leadership. This allowed sufficient time for the election campaign to be fought. Consequently, media attention was high, and the party leader contest had the nuances of a pseudo-national election. Each candidate advocated for his or her policies and sought to win the votes of MPs and ordinary LDP members across the country.

Ishiba, a safer choice for the LDP

Of particular importance was the vote by ordinary LDP members. In the past, the factional dynamics of the lawmakers had determined the outcome of the election, but this time it resembled a popularity contest among party members. 

Sanae Takaichi, the most hawkish and conservative of the candidates, received the largest number of party member votes (72 for lawmakers and 109 for party members, 181 votes in total). Ishiba, who tackled local issues and put local development at the centre of his policies, also received high marks (46 for lawmakers and 108 for party members, 154 votes in total). Usually, the lawmakers’ votes select the party leader as the ‘face of the election’.

However, in the second round, Ishiba won with 215 votes over the 194 for Takaichi. This reversal is likely due to many MPs thinking that the risk of electing Takaichi as party leader was too high. 

As a conservative politician, Takaichi was seen as a candidate who was likely to make relations with neighbouring countries more difficult. She stated that she would visit the Yasukuni Shrine, which hosts more than 2 million souls who sacrificed their lives as soldiers up until World War II (including controversial war criminals), even if she became prime minister. China and South Korea, victims of Japanese imperialism, fiercely object to prime ministers visiting the shrine in an official capacity. 

Such a conservative and hawkish stance is enthusiastically supported by some LDP members, but is unlikely to be widely supported by the public and could work against the LDP in the general election. It is reasonable to assume that many MPs chose Ishiba because he is less controversial and more acceptable for the public.

Snap elections – why now?

This means that even with Ishiba as party leader, the LDP’s internal base is fragile. Since Ishiba himself has long been a minority in the party, few politicians would work for him even if he chose party heavyweight Taro Aso as chief adviser and Yoshihide Suga as vice-party leader. He also has to win over non-friendly politicians to his side.

It is noteworthy that Ishiba appointed Hiroshi Moriyama, who has extensive contacts in the ruling and opposition parties, as secretary-general and reappointed Yoshimasa Hayashi as chief cabinet secretary, a key figure in running the government. These decisions emphasize the continuity of the administration and are intended to give reassurance to other politicians.

However, his low support among the party’s base is an obstacle to Ishiba’s policy progress as party leader and prime minister. Ishiba therefore needs to strengthen his own legitimacy. This is why he called for a snap election.

The reason Ishiba is dissolving the Diet so hastily is that the ongoing party finance scandal has eroded support for the LDP

On 9 October, Ishiba will dissolve the House of Representatives and a general election will be held on 27 October. Dissolving the House of Representatives less than 10 days after being appointed as prime minister is a record, and shows Ishiba’s impatience. In fact, Ishiba even suggested the dissolution schedule before being nominated in the National Assembly.

The reason Ishiba is dissolving the Diet so hastily is that the ongoing party finance scandal has eroded support for the LDP. While it is mandatory for a new prime minister to make an administration policy speech and take questions from each party’s representatives, as soon as this formal procedure is over, Ishiba will dissolve the Diet before any further parliamentary debates can take place.

It is also necessary to hold an election to gain the confidence of the public before the poor impression of the administration worsens. To increase the party’s mandate, it is imperative for Ishiba not only to gain a majority of seats in the general election, but also to ensure that he does not lose seats. If the debate on the finance scandal continues, the LDP will surely lose more seats, so a general election needed to be held as soon as possible.

A split opposition might help the LDP

At the same time, the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), has just elected a new leader, Yoshihiko Noda, and may not be fully prepared for the election. In particular, the Communist Party, whose support base overlaps with that of the CDP, could field candidates in more than 100 constituencies. This would give the LDP an advantage if the two parties were to compete for votes.

Split opposition cont.

If the opposition vote is split in the general election and the resulting reduction in LDP seats is as small as possible, Ishiba will not only gain a strong position within the LDP as the leader who won the election, but also as the prime minister who has the public’s support. In addition, from the perspective of LDP lawmakers, if they can maintain their majority, they will be deemed to have the support of the public and can put an end to the party finance scandal. Many MPs will therefore support Ishiba’s decision and accept an early general election.

If Ishiba can create a secure base of government, Japanese politics will be stabilized and Japan’s foreign and security policies, which were strengthened by the Abe and Kishida administrations, can continue to be bolstered. Whether Ishiba can be a successful prime minister or not depends on this general election.