Africa is hosting the G20 for the first time. South Africa, which took over the G20 presidency in December, welcomes world leaders to the group’s summit in November. South African leadership offers a real opportunity to further the interests of poorer countries. But with geopolitical tensions intensifying and a new US president in the White House, its timing is especially challenging.
Under the banner of Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability, Pretoria’s priorities include driving greater equity in global governance and giving more prominence to Africa’s development agenda.
The event will be the culmination of a series of G20 summits hosted by IBSA nations – India, Brazil, South Africa. All three democracies have positioned their G20 presidencies as champions of the Global South and of reforming international governance to be more inclusive.
South Africa’s declining global heft
Multilateralism is a cornerstone of South African foreign policy. But its use of international forums to exert influence on international affairs has often frustrated US and Western interests.
The country’s past voting record as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council – voting against resolutions to impose sanctions on Myanmar and Zimbabwe – and its recent high-profile case against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) show how it can leverage its limited resources to work with allies on issues on which it feels it has a moral grounding.
However, the country is also managing the dilution of its own position in international affairs. It is no longer the sole African representative in the G20.
The African Union is now a member and others, including Nigeria, are seeking South Africa’s help to gain admission. South Africa also presided over the expansion of the BRICS grouping, widening the membership to include Egypt and Ethiopia.
Despite its declining heft, South Africa can act as a catalyst to forge international agreements in some areas.
South Africa is by far the smallest economy in the group, accounting for only 0.6 per cent of its GDP. But its economic relationships straddle geopolitical divisions – its main trade partners include China, the EU, Germany, India, Japan, the US, and the UK.
Whereas the G7’s proportion of world GDP has fallen, the G20 continues to represent 85 per cent of the global economy, driven by emerging economies with which South Africa has constructive relationships.
Managing contradictions
G20 members increasingly see a future navigating the contradictions between their bilateral and multilateral relationships. Divisions continue on key issues of international governance but, unlike in the past, there is little consistency in how states align. Most now must calculate the impact of a more protectionist US or seek to nurture important relations with China.
On home turf South Africa feels that its multilateral approach is a strength, giving it power as a recognized champion of Global South representation and an expert at navigating multipolarity.
It hopes to use its technical expertise, drawn from business, academia, and think tanks, to convert discussions at the G20 into tangible action and financial deliverables – in particular, on disaster relief and climate action, on debt sustainability and restructuring, and on mobilizing finance for the green transition, arguing for greater use of grants rather than debt.
Promises of additional finance from Global North partners are unrealistic. South Africa will be tested in its ambition to unlock existing commitments and guiding them towards projects on the ground.
But Western partners keen to demonstrate that they offer a genuine option to the Global South – where they see China, Russia or the Gulf taking a greater role – should focus on fulfilling promises of poverty alleviation and not stoke geopolitical division.
The challenge posed by the US
South Africa has repeatedly expressed solidarity with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. However, Vladimir Putin did not attend the BRICs summit in South Africa in 2023 or the G20 in Brazil, saying that his presence would ‘wreck the summit’.
It is unlikely that he would go to South Africa, given the ICC warrant for his arrest.
The host’s most significant challenge will be ensuring Donald Trump attends the summit and shoring up relations with the US.
South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICJ is a major source of friction in the US and deeply unpopular with Republicans, compounding concerns about South Africa’s relations with BRICS members China, Russia, and Iran, which have included joint military exercises.
In February 2024, the South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act was introduced into the US Congress, which could require a review of the bilateral relationship, specifically on whether South Africa has undermined US security interests.
In November, Trump threatened to impose 100 per cent tariffs on BRICS nations, in response to repeated calls for an alternative reserve currency to the dollar. South Africa itself advocates de-dollarization through trade in national currencies, rather than the creation of a new alternative to the greenback.
