Europe’s leaders are finding a way to deal with Trump – but clarity on Ukraine remains elusive

Washington hosted a week of relatively friendly talks. But discussions of European security were not productive.

Expert comment Published 28 February 2025 4 minute READ

Dr Leslie Vinjamuri

Director, US and the Americas Programme

Kanishkh Kanodia

Schwarzman Academy Fellow, US and the Americas Programme

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was one of four European leaders President Donald Trump received in Washington this week, following Polish President Andrzej Duda and French President Emmanuel Macron, and before Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. With Trump it is hard to say for sure, but it would appear there is more to play for in the transatlantic partnership than the fallout from the Munich Security Conference suggested. 

The statements of US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance around the time of Munich had seemed like a death knell for Europe’s relationship with the US, but that may yet prove to have been more noise than signal. 

After all, Trump’s willingness to entertain four European leaders shows that he could be uncomfortable walking away from Europe. The US has been signposting a rebalancing in its global commitments for more than two decades. But that shift is still more likely to be gradual than abrupt, even under Trump – since all partners including the US have a great deal at stake. 

The urgent moment 

President Trump is clearly willing to force Europe’s hand and treat US commitments as part of a bargain, subject to conditions rather than one bound by principles. 

There is sympathy for this approach from many Americans: Trump is the latest in a succession of US presidents who have signalled that Europe needs to pull its weight in the transatlantic partnership. 

Leaders in the UK and Europe must now marry the long-standing need for a remaking of the Euro Atlantic security order in the medium-term with the urgent requirement to secure Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. 

Operating within this paradigm, progress is especially critical in order to facilitate a ceasefire in Russia’s war, and beyond that to shape post-war arrangements. This will require a careful look at how to diversify Europe’s security partnerships. Europe is not alone, but it is unique. No other continent stands to lose so much from US disengagement, so quickly. 

How to handle Trump

Since the US election on 5 November, foreign leaders have attempted different strategies with the US president. 

Some, like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, showed strength, at least on tariffs, threatening retaliation while offering Trump cooperation on the border – giving the president just enough to signal a victory to his domestic audience. China also retaliated, pre-emptively, with a series of its own measures, including export controls. But neither Beijing nor Ottawa faces a war in its neighbourhood. 

The prime minister arrived in Washington well briefed to demonstrate loyalty and strength, while pressing the urgency of the issues. 

Europeans are still scrambling for a coherent strategy. Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, took a tough line, arguing that ‘My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA’.

Keir Starmer’s approach has been different. Shored up by a highly experienced team of negotiators, the prime minister arrived in Washington well briefed to demonstrate loyalty and strength, while pressing the urgency of the issues. 

Starmer delivered a letter from the King inviting the US president to an unprecedented second state visit, outlining the shared values of the US and UK. He drew on John Bolton’s storied advice, digging deep into the pockets of the US–UK relationship, noting the issues where the two states are leading powers, including artificial intelligence, higher education, research and development – and most importantly, golf. Trump, the tariff president, closed the briefing on a positive note, giving hope to the long hoped-for US–UK free trade deal that failed to materialize during the first Trump administration.

Given Trump’s scorn for Europe and multilateralism, Starmer was deft not to claim to speak for Europe, or to portray the UK as a bridge between the US and EU. Still, it could be a line that is hard to maintain as the UK seeks to reset its relations with its closest neighbours.

Nothing for Ukraine

Starmer’s visit is one more clue to how some of the US’s closest trade and security partners might seek to influence President Trump’s behaviour. However, while both Starmer and Macron were able to carve out certain achievements for their own countries, and help settle the mood after Munich, the immediate question of Ukraine, and the medium-term question of European defence remain unclear.

Starmer and Macron have now (it appears) endorsed Trump’s plan of opening dialogue with Russia to reach a ‘deal’ that leads to peace. But there is still no clarity on what Europe’s place in that deal will be, only agreement that Europe should make a significant contribution to enforcing an agreement. 

Starmer…must find a way for the UK to…continue with the ‘reset’ in EU relations, while ensuring that bilateral ties with the US are not compromised.

Neither leader gained any commitment by Trump that the US would provide any security guarantees. On the contrary, Trump said that Macron has agreed that Europe needs to bear the responsibility for protecting Ukraine. When asked in front of Starmer if the US would protect any UK peacekeeping forces, Trump jokingly responded, ‘the British can take care of themselves.’ He then paused and said: ‘I’ll always be with the British’. 

Meanwhile during his cabinet meeting, the president lambasted the EU as essentially having been created to ‘screw the United States’, while promising to unleash 25 per cent tariffs on EU imports to his country. 

The absence of any concrete American guarantees for Ukraine, and Trump’s disdain towards Europe, present a dilemma for Starmer. He must find a way for the UK to effectively contribute to European defence and continue with the ‘reset’ in EU relations, while ensuring that bilateral ties with the US are not compromised.

EU leaders face equally difficult economic but also political decisions to increase defence spending and devise a mechanism to finance this spending – while preparing for the impact of US tariffs. 

Starmer’s announcement to raise defence spending was a key factor in warming the US president. But what comes next for the UK will be more challenging. The UK can be a quiet bridge between the US and the EU, but there is little to be gained from that. 

Starmer will be tempted to seek bilateral concessions, especially on trade, recognizing the spirit of a Trumpian world – while trying to keep Washington invested in Ukraine’s defence. This may test the limits of Starmer’s careful balancing act between the US and the EU.

Both Starmer and EU leaders are no closer to convincing Washington to even make reassuring noises, let alone promises, for a lasting, just peace in Ukraine, or to define a more sustainable form of transatlantic order. But they have at least managed to lower the temperature in their bilateral relations with the US. With this second Trump administration, even that is a small victory.