Last week’s press conference with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump in the Oval Office was extraordinary by any measure.
Disagreements at summits happen – behind closed doors. But it is highly unusual for discord to play out before the cameras in such dramatic fashion. What unfolded was as much a clash of culture and personality as it was a clash of substance. And whilst it is important to understand the first two issues, what matters is the substance and the way forward.
Some commentators have criticized Zelenskyy for his uncompromising performance during the press conference, but Ukrainians are uniting around their wartime leader: Zelenskyy’s ratings in Ukraine have been going up. As I know from my own time in Ukraine, nothing unites the country more than an attack on one of its own.
The US and Ukraine have never looked further apart since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, yet even now they are still united on one vital point: both countries want peace as soon as possible. This is something that can be built upon.
How peace is made
The idea that Ukrainians want to keep fighting is just plain wrong. Thousands of Ukrainians have died, and many more have been injured and seen their homes and livelihoods destroyed.
The Centre for Civil Liberties in Kyiv has documented over 90,000 acts of violence committed by Russian troops that may amount to international crimes, and Ukrainian Organization Children of War has investigated the forced kidnap of more than 20,000 children. The Ukrainians have suffered terribly and want peace more than anyone. The difference of opinion lies in how that peace is secured and on what terms.
Whilst an immediate ceasefire and peace agreement is what everyone wants, Ukrainians fear that such expediency will come at the expense of their long-term peace and security. They have good reason to be afraid. Russia has broken ceasefire agreements on numerous occasions and the Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015 failed to prevent the full-scale invasion of 24 February 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not secured his true aim of a subjugated Ukraine wrapped into Moscow’s sphere of influence.
The Ukrainians fear (with justification) that any short-term peace deal will only provide cover for Russia to regroup, rebuild and come back to reclaim what Putin believes belongs to him. It must be a lasting peace, which preserves Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
Ukraine’s only hope for peace is a strong agreement backed by credible security guarantees and a long-term commitment to Ukraine’s defence and security and reconstruction. Anything else is likely to unravel – as the Minsk Agreements did – leaving Ukraine and Europe vulnerable to further Russian aggression.
Reconfiguring support for Ukraine
Although US support has been vital to Ukraine’s war effort, Europe has provided more. It would be a heavy lift but increased European military assistance combined with Ukraine’s own innovation and battle experience can ensure that Zelenskyy is able to negotiate from a position of strength. Indeed, Europe may not have a choice, given President Trump’s announcement to suspend military assistance to Ukraine on 3 March.
Boosting European support will require greater and more creative access to funding for defence materièl. The idea of a ‘European Rearmament Bank’ is the right way forward, as is the agreement by the likely members of a new German Government to substantially increase defence spending. Reconfiguring support for Ukraine will also require sustained European unity.
Sunday’s summit in London sent an important signal of European resolve – agreeing to boost Ukraine’s defensive capability and explore a coalition of the willing to defend the country – both with ‘boots on the ground and planes in the air’. Such momentum is positive and will need to be maintained and built upon over the coming weeks. That Canada and Turkey attended the summit sends an important signal that Ukraine’s fate matters beyond Europe’s borders.
