Gaza: War, hunger and politics

Israel appears to be planning to expand its operations to take military control of the whole Gaza Strip. Recognition of Palestine by France, the UK and others may be the last hope for a route to peace.

Expert comment Published 23 May 2025 5 minute READ

Zizette Darkazally

Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier this week that Israel will ‘take control of the entire Gaza Strip’. Shortly afterwards, he announced a plan to ‘intensify’ Israel’s military offensive in Gaza and to retain the territory that Israel has seized since the beginning of the war.

Netanyahu also gave the green light to allowing a ‘basic amount of food’ into the enclave. Following an 11-week blockade, the move comes amid growing international alarm at reports by humanitarian agencies over widespread hunger in Gaza, with UN General Secretary António Guterres posting that ‘The situation for Palestinians in Gaza is beyond description, beyond atrocious & beyond inhumane.’

It is unclear whether ‘taking control of Gaza’  is a temporary measure, but the renewed offensive, the mobilization on the ground and official statements suggest that Israel is heading towards a long-term military occupation of the Strip.  Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partner, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, has even called on Israelis to embrace the word ‘occupation’.

Blurring the lines

News reports and remarks by US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee suggest that Israel plans to allow food into Gaza through a US-led initiative to create a handful of logistics and distribution hubs near Israeli military positions in the Strip. That would effectively bypass or dismantle the existing international humanitarian aid system. These new hubs would be operated by private military security contractors or selected non-profit organizations.

Entrusting aid provision to private military contractors would create a dangerous precedent, blurring the lines between humanitarian relief and military force.

The United Nations has said it will not take part in such a US-backed operation, describing the plan as lacking impartiality, neutrality and independence. If executed, entrusting aid provision to private military contractors would create a dangerous precedent, blurring the lines between humanitarian relief and military force and putting humanitarians at risk everywhere. The costs of security and the logistics of this new and unnecessary approach would also far exceed the value of the aid itself.

Disastrous for both sides

Instead of moving towards political and economic independence for Palestinians, as envisaged since the Madrid Peace Conference in 1991, this Israeli government appears to want to take Gaza back decades to the post-1967 era of full military occupation – where the Israeli military runs every facet of Palestinian daily life.

It is much more likely that Israel’s objective of taking control of the Strip will not be to deliver services, but to restrict services.

This would be disastrous for the more than 2 million Palestinians in the 140 square mile Gaza Strip. And for Israel, such a reoccupation would be not just short-sighted, but politically, economically and militarily unsustainable. After 19 months of war, barely 50 per cent of Israeli reserve soldiers are reporting for duty in some units, although the exact figure is hotly debated.

Commanders now post recruitment ads on social media for combat soldiers, cooks, medics and drivers. Reports of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and suicide amongst soldiers who served in Gaza since Hamas’s cross-border attack on 7 October, are a source of significant concern for Israeli military commanders.  

Given that Smotrich and others are very open about their desire to see ‘voluntary emigration’ of the Gazan population, it is much more likely that Israel’s objective of taking control of the Strip will not be to deliver services, but to restrict services, including food, and to drive out the population.

Politically, such measures will sever the historical and political linkage of the West Bank and Gaza and squash any possibility of seriously re-starting a Palestinian-Israeli political track.

Exacerbate regional and international tensions

Netanyahu has said Israel’s objectives are ‘to accomplish all of Israel’s war goals, including the release of all our hostages, destroy Hamas’s military and governance capabilities and ensure that Gaza will never again pose a threat to Israel’. This week he also set the implementation of Trump’s Gaza relocation plan as a new condition for ending the war, and accused Hamas of systematically looting food aid, which Hamas denies.

But in the region, a prolonged Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip would exacerbate already mounting tensions with previously friendly neighbouring countries, particularly Egypt and Jordan. And it would make it more difficult for other Arab countries to justify any sort of dealings with Israel, let alone normalization of relations.

Washington once hoped to persuade Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, using a bilateral security pact as leverage.

But during US President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf, Saudi Arabia succeeded in delinking normalization of relations with Israel from securing a bilateral security deal with the US. The Saudis have also retained the political space to be more aggressive and forthcoming in flexing political muscle to convince the US to take action – if they wish to.

Trump’s tour of the region was an indicator of his growing personal rift with Netanyahu. The president’s trip was remarkable for its exclusion of Israel and followed his decisions to reopen nuclear talks with Iran and halt US attacks on the Houthis in Yemen – an agreement that appeared to exclude Israel and provide it with no assurances.

Trump has also been increasing pressure on Israel, saying publicly last week that ‘a lot of people are starving’ in Gaza.

Military reoccupation would also further isolate Israel – even its supportive European friends are now saying ‘enough’.

However this pressure has not translated yet into any action on the ground in Gaza or the West Bank, except perhaps for enabling a minuscule amount of aid to enter the Strip. The initial handful of truckloads allowed into Gaza this week were described by one senior UN aid official as ‘a drop in the ocean’ of what was urgently needed.

Beyond the region, military reoccupation would also further isolate Israel – even its supportive European friends are now saying ‘enough’. France, the UK and Canada threaten to take ‘further action, including targeted sanctions,’ if Israel does not halt its offensive.

The UK has suspended negotiations with Israel on a new free trade agreement and has imposed sanctions on a number of Israeli settlers. The European Union has also decided to order a review of the EU-Israel association agreement. And earlier this month, foreign ministries of 20 donor countries demanded that Israel allow the UN to deliver aid.

Recognizing Palestine as a state

While these moves largely remain in the realm of political messages, a more tangible step would be to recognize Palestine as an independent state. France has been considering joining the 148 other states that have done so during an upcoming conference that it will co-chair with Saudi Arabia in New York in June. The UK is also reported to be considering such a step.

Recognition is not a symbolic gesture, or an empty statement. Recognizing Palestine may be the last chance to revive hope for peace and a political track. It would have significant legal implications, and would impact the foreign policy decisions, trade and arms agreements of the states who would take that step.

Most importantly, it would end Israel’s veto over Palestinian statehood. Israel’s legislation last year rejecting the establishment of a Palestinian state coupled with decades of Israel’s settlement construction, widely regarded as illegal under international law, have undermined the foundations for a viable Palestinian state.  

At this critical juncture, perhaps even just one further year of delay risks the possibility of having no land and no people left to recognize. The French-Saudi chaired meeting in June is a serious opportunity to create a political process that could bring peace and security for both Israelis and Palestinians.