As the world assesses the impact of the US’s strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme, there are hopes that Washington and Tehran each have new incentive to negotiate. But the opportunity for miscalculation by the US, Israel and Iran is high and so therefore is the chance of regional escalation.
The US’s aerial assault in the early hours of Sunday clearly inflicted damage on key Iranian sites. But here in Amman, Jordan, the conflict seems far from settled. Sirens have sounded twice since my arrival to warn of falling debris from missile interceptions. For Jordanians, and others in the region, the US’s actions have brought new fear of a widening war.
The key question is how much damage the US inflicted on the nuclear site at Fordow, protected by the mountain above. In his speech after the strikes, President Donald Trump claimed they had ‘totally obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear sites. But there is much suspicion among intelligence forces, backed up by aerial surveillance showing movements of vans and trucks, that Iran has been moving out the most enriched uranium for weeks, preserving it from destruction.
That is not a hard task. Enriched uranium is about as heavy as gold, it is not bulky – the amount needed for one nuclear weapon is a little bigger than a bowling ball and Iran is thought to have enough for nine. (It is possible it may still be in canisters in powder form). It can also be handled fairly safely, with just gloves and respirator.
It is very possible that the US strikes badly damaged Fordow’s power supplies and the halls of fragile cascades of centrifuges used to enrich natural uranium (of which Iran has considerable natural deposits). But they may not have rendered the stocks of highly and partially enriched uranium inaccessible. In any case, no strike can destroy 20 years of hard-won knowledge – as the Iranian Foreign Minister has noted.
Israel may now urge the US to continue waging war on Iran, in pursuit of the complete destruction of the nuclear programme – or the regime change that many believe is Israel’s desired aim. The US should be intensely wary of Israel’s exhortations, which could drag it into a wider war.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters that the US does not seek regime change in Tehran, while Vice President Vance denied the US was at war with Iran. But shortly afterwards Trump posted on Truth Social: ‘if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change?’
For all the apparent success of its weekend strikes, US officials must know that destroying the nuclear programme from the air may be impossible. They will also know that further action could provoke considerable retaliation from an Iranian regime that is now fighting for its survival – retaliation that could affect the war and the region in unpredictable ways.
Iran’s choice
Officials from some countries met with Iranian counterparts in Turkey on Saturday, amid rising alarm, and urged Iran to negotiate with the US. Iran was reluctant because of the US demand that it give up its entire enrichment programme, which would very likely be perceived by Iranians as surrender. But the incentive for Iran to turn up to the negotiating table may now be stronger.
Tehran’s other options all risk an escalation which it could not control. It could hit US targets in the Gulf, but that could provoke a US response that would mark the end of the regime.
Continuing to strike at Israel is another option, in the hope of heaping pressure on the Israeli population. But most Israelis support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Iran strikes. And Iran has lost control of the skies to Israel, leaving it only missiles, whose accuracy is not perfect.
Iran might also choose to rush to develop a simpler form of nuclear weapon: a ‘dirty’ bomb that is a far less destructive device but capable of distributing radioactive material and causing immense fear and disruption.